[SPOILERS] Cornflakes and Q Eat 'Em for Breakfast!

[Cornflakes]

Update 1: AT already played. I moved our spy there and he as no knights withing 1 turn of our border, and no slow mover stack within 2 turns of our border (that's as far as we have vision now). Looks like it'll just be a continuation of our standoff here.

Update 2: 2metra brought 2 workers with his stack, so pillaging the road will not help us. He will just use 2 units to kill our impi, and then road the tile and move everything else up.

Commodore does not have Compass, so he is not close to Astronomy or Caravels so naval invasion is not worrisome, except maybe for an opportunistic raze of the brand new Paris city. Commodore also does not have Education or Banking (or any tech which requires those techs). He's down about 10k beakers on us. Everyone else but Jowy is close techwise except for Banking/Economics, AT almost has Constitution (1T) but he does not have Gunpowder (but he'll probably trade for that in the next turn or two).

[Cornflakes]

Now for a full post on war preparations. I plan to move about 11:30pm Eastern time (about 1.5 hours from now). This will give a little time for you to respond with any suggestions, but still hopefully ensure that we move before 2metra/Commodore and avoid any double move possibility. I'll spoiler most of the screenshots so that this post doesn't run for a mile.

I'll start from least dangerous to most dangerous ... so Google: The two most recent drafts from Pork Chop were loaded into the galley there and will be shuttled across. Sim testing indicates that drafted units can move on the turn they're drated (I've never really used drafting either ) so we'll be able to get the muskets from the next 2 turns also shuttled across thanks to Circumnavigation movement bonus on our ships (wow, we're really getting a lot of use from circumnav ). With 4 CG1 muskets and 20% culture bonus we're safe here since we haven't seen any Catapults remotely close to this region.

Now for the Commodore/AT border (see screenshot for unit buildup): I've not included it in this screenshot because I'll be discussing its movements in more depth later. I think we're safe here as well. AT does not have any offensive fighting units. We obviously have to abandon our plan for razing SWAT since our main stack will be heading east, so I'm going to move the spy deeper into AT's territory and see what there is to see ... hopefully not a stack of maces/Cats, although he is currrently #2 in power. Anyway, the 2 muskets will move down from Paradigm to Blimp. The LB and 2 Cats will be moved from Blimp to the Banana where they can reinforce any city as needed. If I don't see any knights from AT next turn the muskets will follow to the banana. The Knights will all be moving out of Paris, landing 1SW of Mars. HA's were just moved into Paris, and will stay there with the impi for now. These units are in fact defending Postos Village, but since they are 2-movers we might as well keep them here to make Paris less of a target (although it may be best to just write off paris if Commodore comes in earnest). I also want to spend the 100g to upgrade our Triremes to Caravels. I think it's worth it since we don't have the hammers to build much in the time we're given. If we place those NW of Commodore's city next turn he can't 1-move Paris with the galley.

We can draft up to 4 units per turn on this map (Pork Chop and 3 more). We cannot risk a knight attack on Google, so I'll draft that city for sure this turn. I want to double draft all three of our easternmost cities. This involves Mars next turn (7T overlap) and both Doughnut and Sheep this turn and next, because counter expires next turn in Sheep. Due to HR military police happiness this won't be a problem because we'll be gathering our units in both of these cities. At Doughnut we can build 2-turn Cats. This won't be quick enough to attack his stack out of Mars, but it's quick enough to attack his stack if it tries retreating. With the 2 upgraded Caravels I think we can hold the waters alright since Commodore is far away from Caravels himself. We'll see an attack force well in advance of it reaching Doughnut and can move units in place to defend. Sheep has enough hammers to get a 2-turn catapult. This one is close enough to attack his stack while it sits outside of Mars, bringing our total to 4 Catapults build in time ... still woefully inadequate.

The 1-turned Catapult from Porcupine will the the 4th. The Nav_1 galley (GREEN) will sit 2E of Porcupine this turn. Next turn it will pick up the catapult and move into Mars and unload (yay Circumnav again!). Now for our main Maces stack ... This starts 1NW of Postos Village. Unfortunately it is 1 movement point short of reaching Mars in time. The workers in the area already auto-moved as I was shuffling things around so they can't road that one tile 2S of GS in time. So we have to get a bit creative Fortunately the workers near Porcupine (BLUE) have not yet moved. They could go road that tile, but we also want them in the northeast to complete those forts ASAP so that we can counter-attack 2metra amphibiously immediately after repulsing his army. Therefore I will move them this turn and road the tile marked 1T Fort. Next turn I will finish the fort with one of the workers, and move the other worker to finish one of the 2metra-canal forts. The following turn our canal will be complete. As soon as the fort is build, our remaining 3 galleys (PINK) will enter the fort and wait for the maces stack to arrive. The following turn, 6 of the maces will enter the fort and load unto the galleys, getting transported into Mars and immediately unloaded the same turn. With the 5 drafted muskets and 6 knights this should be enough to stand against 2metra's stack ... I hope. I will bring as many units from Sheep as I dare, depending on what he brings in towards Sheep from the north. If things look really desparate I can get a 3rd draft out of each of those cities for 3 more muskets.

[Cornflakes]

We're facing 10 maces, 10 catapults, 5 knights, and half a dozen other weaker units.

Boy, I really wish that pesky jungle 2SE of Mars was gone. We'll be able to get more units inside than 2metra has killers, with 10 more units just outside the city. If that jungle was gone we'd be able to completely wipe out his stack as he retreats. As it is, he can just sit in the jungle and wait us out, without us having any catapults to throw at it.

EDIT: neither Commodore or 2metra have posted in the last week, so there won't be much to look at after the game regarding their buildup

[Qgqqqqq]

Don't draft Google - any knights will have to be within two tiles to hit it this turn, so we can check with an impi.
Try to avoid building the forte before we need them, especially as he might swing a northern stack at us.
Given our relatively large garrisons, I'm not afraid of an amphibious attack by Commodore, I think we should be ready for it but not rush into upgrading tiremes.
I do think we should put them on the ocean tile so they can't be hit, and then promote if we see a swarm approaching.

[Qgqqqqq]

I can't see GREEN/BLUE anywhere to know quite what you're talking about, but I'm willing to take your word for it.
Knight next turn out of porcupine IMO.

[Cornflakes]

I can't see GREEN/BLUE anywhere to know quite what you're talking about, but I'm willing to take your word for it.
Knight next turn out of porcupine IMO.

forgot to insert the last image. Edited it in, but reposted below as well

[Qgqqqqq]

Ah, I see how that works, very clever. Check they can load up after moving though - if not then default to the road 2S.
I think we have a worker nearly finished in sheep if the forts are urgent.

[Cornflakes]

I forgot that we still had OB because I moved all out scouring units before realizing that war was imminent. Impi from Google was able to fully examine the local area and uncovered a single knight in range this turn. We'll have 3 units inside so we're quite safe (impi + HA + axe)

[Cornflakes]

Ok, turn finished. I offered Commodore free ivory. If we can keep him from piling on we're golden. If he piles on I'm still optimistic that we can repulse them on both fronts. If AT also joins against us then I don't think we can hold out.

Q and I were chatting, and I think we're going to have to go Rifling next after Chemistry rather than trying to beeline Communism. It'll still take an estimated 20 turns, but if we wait until after Communism then we're looking at 35+ turns before Rifling. If anyone in an alliance against us techs to Rifling and trades it around it's lights out for us unless we also have it.

[Cornflakes]

Another option for tech is Steel. Our cultural cushion is large enough all around that no city except Blimp can be hit by 2-movers, and any slow move stack has at least 2 turns of travel anywhere but Blimp. If we pile up Cannon on our borders we should be ok with drafted muskets and built knights. We can shred any stack with cannon and then clean up with the rest. It may be worth it to go for Steel first. (EDIT: Steel will take maybe 12-15 turns vs. Rifling which will take ~20).

We have 2 turns left in Chemistry before we need to decide. We chose to finish Chemistry because it only takes 2 more turns and it boosts all of our WS +1H and we're going to be heavily prioritizing those in the next 20 turns.