Diplomacy No press Game 01 LURKER THREAD [NO PLAYERS]

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My thoughts coming up

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First some thoughts from France

France has no idea what it is doing anymore, but seriously hopes that it takes Tunis and it gets lucky against Germany. And England f**** with Germany massively, that's the least G deserves.

My thoughts:

Germany is in a world of hurt with the English fleet in Hel. England shoudl pick up Denmark this year.

I like Turkey's support order for Russia, and if I'm Russia, I'd be open to reconciling with Turkey (given that Austria is getting awful big). Of course, I'd be even more open to reconciling if Turkey had moved Bla-Con with support rather than bouncing.

I don't like Russia's moves of Stp-Fin and Mos-Stp. Why bother in the north, especially with 2 units that can't support each other well. Such is the curse of the northern Russian fleet.

Italy did the best it could do this turn but is hosed due to previous season's moves.

France is still solid though has a bit of a conundrum in the fall with foreign armies in Picardy and Piedmont

Austria still looking in good shape

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Austria sends a "Letters from Austria", 1903 edition!

Dear Germany,

I'm writing your letter first, because I thought we were close friends. I'm not sure what happened to us. You have ordered into Tyrolia a couple times now and caused me problems, and I've forgiven you... But I'm not sure I can keep forgiving the fact that you keep hassling me. I think it's time for us to be done. It's not me... It's you.

Sincerely,
Austria

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Dear England,

I admit I'm conflicted at what you are doing. I think you are playing very well, but I'm a little nervous about HOW well you and France are doing together. You seem mostly unchallenged, so I'm hoping you can ease up a bit so I can get some more centers. Hopefully you understand. I'll like you a lot better if you keep Russia distracted in the north. Things didn't work out between myself and Germany, so feel free to unleash Hell[goland]!

Sincerely,
Austria

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Dear France,

You know, I thought things were doomed between you and I. I really did. I wanted some Italian pizza, but you seemed like the type to say a bunch of fancy things in your French accent while using the distraction to steal all the pizza. That's just not cool man, I like pizza. However, perhaps I misjudged you. You did me a favor in letting me demolish Venice (although it was in your interest to help I guess). I'm still not sure what to think about you, but I'm willing to give you a chance. Be forewarned though, I'll accept nothing less than a 2/2 split of Italy, and if you think you can have 3 of them, well then you will meet your denouement quicker than you can drink a glass of Italian wine.

Sincerely,
Austria

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Dear Italy,

LOL dude sorry you are so dead.

Sincerely,
Austria

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Dear Russia,

Don't even think about getting cute with Turkey. We have a good thing going, but I'm not cool with cheaters. Capiche? Good. Pass the vodka.

Seriously though, I"d rather not invade you yet. Russia is fricken cold in the fall and winter, why would I even do that to myself? I wouldn't.

Sincerely,
Austria

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Dear Turkey,

Congratulations on submitting the most boring orders of the round! I actually had a feeling you might submit something like that... Really though, I'm not sure what you're trying to accomplish by "befriending" Russia while still holding the Black Sea. But ok, good luck with that.

Sincerely,
Austria

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Thoughts from England

England, F03:

Curses on thee, Russia! The turn otherwise went off quite well. I’m glad I changed my mind on Nth-Hol.


Fortunately, Russia alone cannot take Swe or Nwy b/c it’s F Fin and A StP, not A Fin and F StP(NC). But he’s definitely ordering Fin-Swe and StP-Nwy (why not? Grab some very needed SCs). Germany should be able to predict this, as well. There’s the possibility of Russia being sneaky, and just ordering StP – Nwy, hoping that I vacate Nwy but not try to bounce Nwy-Swe, which only works if Germany doesn’t order a unit into Swe, AND Swe gets vacated. If that happens, that’s because I’ve grabbed Denmark instead. And Denmark for Nwy OR Sweden = fine with me.

Also, Germany probably needs to do everything he can to hold Denmark. He cannot succeed in taking Sweden UNLESS Fin S Bal-Swe or Fin S Den-Swe happen to be perfectly matched with what Germany’s doing. So I don’t see how Germany goes for Sweden, not when losing Denmark would be quite painful. Ruh S Hol strikes me as a crazy line, as then he HAS to leave Bel and Kie open. Can he really believe that I won’t try at least ONE of Nth-Bel or Hel-Kie, if not both? Also, that prevents Hol-Nth or Hol-Hel from being ordered as a defensive move. So, let’s start thinking from this opening line:


Nth S Hel – Hol and Hel – Hol! Leaving Nth open is far more dangerous. I go nowhere if Den-Nth is ordered, but that’s also on the borderline-crazy set of moves (and I end up grabbing Den instead. Darn.). Is the North Sea worth losing an SC for him? Not bloody likely.


That leaves Ska Swe and Nwy. Ska S Swe – Den, Swe-Den and Nwy – Swe risks losing Swe to:

Bal S Den and Den S Fin – Nwy; Bal S Den means Den S Fin – Nwy because, well, why not. This is a reasonably likely play, as for one thing once Bal S Den is decided, the rest WILL happen. Also, that bounces with Den-Swe and Bal S Den-Swe (not enough troops available to do anything better than bouncing in that scenario), and fails completely if Fin S Den-Swe. But Fin S Den-Swe seems a low-probability problem, and I can tolerate not getting Den if Germany loses Hol. Den S Bal-Swe also fails without Fin S Bal-Swe, because I dislodge Den and therefore cut the support. That then bounces Nwy-Swe, and I lose nothing. Swe-Den requires the 2nd support into Den, IMO. Really, my only hope there would be Bal – Kie (with a planned bounce of Hol-Kie and Ruh-Bel?), or Den-Ska and Bal S Fin-Swe, where I trade Denmark for Sweden, but Sweden goes to Russia and not Germany.



Note to self: Germany could be planning a forced bounce to try to cover extra provinces from my fleets. That just means I can’t do unsupported attacks and expect them to work (Ruh-Bel or Ruh-Kie could bounce with something, that’s for sure. Ruh-Kie would be fantastic, period).

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And also some thoughts from Turkey

The whole western situation is now very funny . I'm sure Germany and France are losing sleep over the next move.
It is a real guessing match now.
The only thing I'm quite sure about is :

Italy loses TUN (for sure) & VEN (most likely) and should be gone after next year. Austria will have 7 centers and really look scary .
England should get at least DEN and this may well mark the decline for Germany whose Units are far spread.
Germanys only hope is Russia but in a no talking game it is hard to decide who attacks and who supports.

I really look forward to read any thoughts from France/Germany /England about the situation.

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Thoughts from Germany

Mis-guessed pretty much everything in Spring 03. I better guess better
in the Fall.

F SKA-Den supported by BLA was a must because I had to avoid the fleet
getting disbanded and defending in the fall with only 5 units. I
guessed England would support himself in there and occupy both ENG and
NTH so after pondering the Helgoland Bight, I settled on F Kie-Hol to
give me a say over Belgium (and still indirectly over Denmark).

As it happens, England simply advanced everything, occupied Hel and
NTH instead of ENG and NTH.

In the south, I was worried about Munich, especially since Austria may
move for me. I decided that Bel-Pic was the best way to distract
France to hopefull allow Ruh S Mun in the fall against an expected
Austrian aggresor. Ruh-Bur was obviously to cut support against Mun
and Mun-Tyr was to slow down Austria if he ordered Tyr S Tri-Ven +
Vie-Boh, or (even better) Tri S Tyr-Ven + Vie-Tyr.

As it happened, Austria completely left me alone so I look like a
retard sitting in Tyrolia. It looks silly but it would have made no
difference being in Munich or even Kiel (Hel just taps Kie and the
other 3 units muscle their way into Den anyway).

Two positive outcomes for the turn was that I am currently in Picardy
and Italy was forced out of Venice but retreated to Piedmont.
Hopefully the French general has at least chosen foolishly!

In other news... what is Russia doing in Finland? Why not the Gulf of
Botnia? One thought was that he wanted to make it clear to me he was
gunning for Sweden rather than me? But maybe that's just wishful
thinking on my part. More likely, he was paranoid about England and
wanted to make sure Finland was not English. He is not in a very good
position to attack Scandinavia and he can only really order A Stp S F
Fun, F Fin H.

Italy is going to crumble now... will lose Venice and Tunis. But
hopefully will go out doing as much damage as he can, particularly to
France.

Turkey is in a very tough position to crack. I'm a bit disappointed
Austria didn't order A Bul S F AEG-Con, F Gre-AEG. Turkey can only
self-bounce for so long before Autria figures it out. Only way to
crack Turkey I think.

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As for Fall 03:

Well Denmark is lost but unless I'm unlucky that should be my only
loss. I'm trying to figure out how to be the biggest pain in the ass I
can to England for next year though. And France can't cover Mar, Par
and Bre so there's an outside chance I'll not even have a disband this
turn! That would be hilarious.

But my situation hasn't really changed. England will, with patience,
punch through my defence. And even if Austria is on my side, I need
fleet support from the atlantic and that is not coming from France (or
anyone else) any time soon.

Austria still a big favourite to win this game. England doing well.
France and Russia could come strong if things go their way. The
merciful thing about playing a central power (rather than Turkey for
example) is that I'm either in a good position to win or I'm about to
die. No lingering on in an unwinnable position.

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And I guess Germany was last to order, as shortly after his email, the results came in

Movement results for Fall of 1903. (rbnopress01.010)

Austria: Army Bulgaria SUPPORT Turkish Fleet Aegean Sea -> Constantinople.
Austria: Army Trieste SUPPORT Army Venice.
Austria: Fleet Greece -> Aegean Sea.
Austria: Army Venice HOLD.
Austria: Army Serbia SUPPORT Army Bulgaria.
Austria: Army Budapest -> Vienna.

England: Army Sweden -> Denmark.
England: Fleet Skagerrak SUPPORT Army Sweden -> Denmark.
England: Fleet Helgoland Bight -> Holland.
England: Fleet Norway -> Sweden. (*bounce*)
England: Fleet North Sea SUPPORT Fleet Helgoland Bight -> Holland.

France: Army Burgundy -> Marseilles. (*bounce*)
France: Army Tuscany -> Rome. (*bounce*)
France: Fleet Western Mediterranean SUPPORT Fleet Tyrrhenian Sea -> Tunis.
France: Fleet Tyrrhenian Sea -> Tunis.
France: Army Paris -> Brest. (*bounce*)

Germany: Army Ruhr -> Holland. (*bounce*)
Germany: Army Picardy -> Brest. (*bounce*)
Germany: Fleet Denmark -> Kiel.
Germany: Fleet Baltic Sea SUPPORT Russian Fleet Finland -> Sweden.
Germany: Army Tyrolia -> Munich.
Germany: Fleet Holland -> Belgium.

Italy: Army Tunis HOLD. (*dislodged*)
Italy: Army Piedmont -> Marseilles. (*bounce*)
Italy: Fleet Naples SUPPORT Army Rome.
Italy: Army Rome SUPPORT Fleet Naples. (*cut*)

Russia: Army Ukraine SUPPORT Fleet Sevastopol -> Rumania.
Russia: Army Rumania -> Budapest.
Russia: Fleet Sevastopol -> Rumania.
Russia: Fleet Finland -> Sweden.
Russia: Army St Petersburg -> Norway. (*bounce*)

Turkey: Army Armenia SUPPORT Russian Fleet Sevastopol. (*void*)
Turkey: Fleet Black Sea -> Constantinople. (*bounce*)
Turkey: Fleet Aegean Sea -> Constantinople.


The following units were dislodged:

The Italian Army in Tunis can retreat to North Africa.

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Wow - quite the eventful turn

Germany guesses on Russia's moves and takes Sweden from England.

Russia guesses that Austria will be forced to vacate Budapest and picks up a SECOND center!

Austria guesses that Turkey will try the (boring) self-bounce again, offers unwanted support and sneaks into the Aegean.

France guesses right on both of the foreign units trying to steal his centers

If I were England, I'd have ordered Hel S Nth-Hol instead of the other way around - if Germany had tried to move into Nth, it would only have been at the expense of losing both Hol and Den. Hel is just such a nice place to be, if you're attacking Germany, and while a German fleet in Nth is a pain, if he keeps that, then that makes Germany proper even MORE unsaveable.

So if I'm counting right that's

England: +1 (+Den +Hol - Swe)
France: +1 (Tun)
Germany: -2 (-Den, -Hol)
Austria: 0 (+Ven -Bud)
Russia: +2 (+Swe +Bud)
Italy: -2 (-Ven -Tun)
Turkey: 0

[Mardoc]

It looks like EF is working quite well for the two of them! Meanwhile, I almost think Russia's bitten off more than he can chew, although I suppose another pair of armies will help.

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I think if I'm Russia, I build a F Sev, and order somtehing like Sev S Rum-Bla, Ukr S Bud-Rum. Let Austria take back Budapest and say thankyouverymuch for the loan and concentrate on taking out Turkey