[Lurkers] WW #43 - The Great Wheel

[sunrise089]

My pick order was vanilla cop - hider - vanilla town

Wait, what?

[zakalwe]

My pick order was vanilla cop - hider - vanilla town

And then Jabbz made you a mason?

[Jabbz]

So I ran everyone's picks truly random. Then I did what I could to balance everything through second and third choices. Ultimately I had to make a few substitutions to achieve true balance. It happens.

[Jkaen]

Yes same as Rowain he offered me a switch to help balance it, and I accepted the switch

[Psillycyber]

first off:

Thanks Jabbz for organizing and running it

Always fun running these, usually more so than participating for me I think. I love watching you guys work through everything.

BTW after the selection process I got an offer by Jabbz to take either hider or tracker which I refused.

Yeah I did some last minute tweaks to balance everything out. I think when it's all said and done most people will agree it was a pretty damn good setup, even if it doesn't feel that way at the moment.

Hear hear! It's always a good setup when Day 4 rolls around and victory is still up for grabs, which is what I think we see here, even though each team might be feeling pessimistic about their chances right now.

[Rowain]

Rowain, for what its worth, I feel really quite upset and depressed at that. It's the second time I've done it too, so clearly I just can't read your style.

You should trust those that know me . Lewwyn, novice, zak and Meiz all saying I'm town means either they are all scum or they are right.

[Jabbz]

Oh the irony of that statement Rowain.

[Rowain]

Will be interesting to see what powers scum have left.

And who will die in the night.

[Psillycyber]

I'm really hoping that Fenn doesn't go ahead and shoot Dp101 like he and Gazglum have planned. It makes no sense. He should shoot literally anyone else other than Dp101. Here's why:

If Dp101 is town, then you don't want to be shooting him, regardless of whether he is bulletproof or not, considering that you are wasting a shot on a townie at a time when you cannot afford to be doing that. Dp101, if town, should be pointing that out and helping Fenn find the right target, not agreeing to something that accomplishes nothing and won't even clear Dp101 for sure. (Posters have already pointed out that there could be a scum doctor, for example).

If Dp101 is scum, then it should make Fenn just a little suspicious that Dp101 is willing to go along with this. It should make Fenn consider that maybe, just maybe, scum Dp101 would have something up his sleeve to nullify the shot (see scum doctor idea above).

That said, maybe Fenn is secretly miles ahead of me and has already decided to shoot someone else while publicly continuing to agree to the Dp101 target idea. That would be the ideal solution. If Dp101 is town, it has no downsides, and if Dp101 is scum, it might make scum think that Dp101 will be targeted, perhaps drawing protection away from the other scum target.

[Molach]

DP has little choice but to be willing to go along, even if he is scum with no chance of being saved. Suggesting anything else would be seen as admission of lying about role.

For this to be balanced scum needs to have powerful roles to compete with cop and hider, both roles that can deliver cleared villagers and some scum. I think scum will win because town relis too much on (unreliable) power roles.