[SPOILERS] Cornflakes Returns to Civ 4: Forget 1UPT, STACK OF DOOM!!!!!

[Cornflakes]

T120: Preparations for the assault on Jeffrey are well underway! I have 2 swords complete this turn, and have 1 more sword completing EOT. I will also have a 2-turn HA coming out of Infinity Past as well. Superdeath did go through with the Machinery bulb 2 turns ago but has not whipped either last turn or this turn so he should not have any crossbows coming into play yet.

   

I don't think that the power graph will show my spike next turn, I think I'll have one more turn before that hits the graph. My plan is to hold the two swords in their current positions out of sight. Next turn the new sword and axe out of Mammoth will move forward to join the one holding in place and I'll move the crossbow forward out of Infinity, while the trebuchet bombards again and the HA completes EOT. T122 I'll move forward the 3 swords and advance the HA to where it is in range to join as a clean-up unit but be out of sight to hide the fact that I have HA a little longer if it is not needed for clean-up duty.

T123 I'll launch the attack starting with the trebuchet (promoted to Barrage for additional collateral). City defenses will be down to 26%. I'll have 3 swords, 3 axes, 2 crossbows, 2 spears, 1 HA which should be sufficient even if Superdeath brings a crossbow into the mix. If a crossbow does show up the trebuchet should attack the crossbow and hit that down to a manageable level for 2 swords to handle. I expect to lose 3 swords/axes and the crossbow if the current defenders remain the same. If a crossbow joins I expect to lose 1 more unit. Wish me luck!

Elkad is making 4 gpt now. I don't know if that is at approximately break-even or 100% tax. I'll post the GNP graph in a couple turns once it updates to show where Elkad is at.

[Cornflakes]

T120: Attack force is assembled as per plan. Last turn Superdeath buffed the defenses with another archer + spear. This turn I can see a chariot that can get in as well, hopefully nothing more. He does have the option to upgrade one of the archers to a crossbow. If he does not upgrade and no more archer/crossbow/axes enter I'm reasonably confident of capture next turn with average dice rolls. (I see Superdeath has played and posted so you can head over to his thread and satisfy your curiosity alternatively you could stay out of his thread until tomorrow to maintain the suspense).

I did a quick sim and came up victorious 8/10 times. I have full fortify to all units in the sim even though an archer/spear pair are newly arrived so this should be slightly conservative. The two times I lost were when the trebuchet and first 1-2 sacrificial axes had flawless losses. Half the time I had 1 extra unit (the HA). If I get poor rolls on the first couple attacks I can abort.

If one of the archers is upgraded to a crossbow then the entire success depends on the first 2 combat rolls. In that case have the choice of rolling the dice on hopefully maybe fingers-crossed dealing above average damage 2 times in a row ... or wait for reinforcements. Now that he has a stack defending it is more efficient to sacrifice another Trebuchet or two to get better odds on my hitters. I'll probably wait, continue bombarding the defenses, and bring a 2nd and maybe 3rd Trebuchet into play if Superdeath goes through with an upgrade. It's a race against the clock though until Superdeath has Catapults in play. His ETA has dropped down to 19 turns and his MFG and food graphs rose accordingly so he is focusing on getting some more defenders out first, and an upgrade will further delay his research.

Either way, prepare your popcorn 

[Cornflakes]

T121: Superdeath upgraded an archer to crossbow, and he also took and won a 17% battle with a chariot against my crossbow I'll need to wait for reinforcements ... ... ... but ... ... another more profitable opportunity appears to be opening on the northern border. Remember how I said I was likely to switch gears to Elkad if Superdeath armed up? Well, Elkad appears to be launching an invasion on Wetbandit!

   

Wetbandit can see the stack so I don't think this attack will go far. Also I see what appears to be a colosseum in Napolinguini which signals Construction tech for catapults on defense. But this opens up a great opportunity to sweep in behind! My chariots will monitor the situation. In the mean time, while waiting for reinforcements to gather in the south I'll start creeping some of my units north in preparation.

[Cornflakes]

T124: Superdeath offered to give me 1gpt for peace. After looking around, I concluded that peace is probably the better option for the short term. Wetbandit declared war on Elkad, and Elkad persisted in advancing. Elkad's attack is hopeless. I hive Elkad about 0.5% chance of success in his attack. Wetbandit has nearly the same number of defenders as Elkad has attackers including 1 Crossbow, 1 Elephant,  and 1 catapult. Wetbandit also gets another turn to whip the threatened city, AND 2 turns to move in additional defenders or upgrade. If Wetbandit doesn't sign a peace treaty this could go very very badly for Elkad. That stack is basically Elkad's entire power (other than a handful of archers remaining in his cities). If it gets wiped out then Germany will fall over like a house of cards. Even if it stays intact, swords and axes are not all that effective against the crossbows I will be bringing.

   

I am already moving all available units north. 3 swords, 2 axes, and 2 HA departed last turn from the Superdeath border heading north. I will have an attack stack assembled in 4 turns consisting of 5 swords, 1 Trebuchet, 4 axes, 4 crossbows, 4 HA, 2-3 spear. I will have a couple more HA + Trebuchet + another unit or two straggling 1 turn behind the initial stack. Plus I am sending some mounted units ahead next turn into Elkad's territory to get around to his north (2 HA + 3 chariots). There is a swath of neutral territory within 2-turn movement from the German capital, currently just defended by a warrio. Unless borders pop to cover that zone or Elkad closes borders, I could potentially land an ambush attack at his capital at the same time I invade from the south.

Peace with Superdeath will allow me to take the remaining southern forces of 1 Trebuchet + 1 Crossbow + 1 axe + 2 spears. Disadvantage of peace treaty is that is might put Elkad on high alert. Who knows though, maybe now that I want peace Superdeath will not be inclined to grant it. If I do get peace I will have 10 turns to build up a deterrent stack on the southern border. Then I can renew the war/peace, send the deterrent stack north to aid in cleanup of Elkad, and build another deterrent stack. By that time hopefully Elkad will be eliminated and the forces there can spill over the southern border of Superdeath.

One more thing ... I have to admit that I forgot about Elephants when embarking on the race-to-knights strategy. All the same, I still maintain my opinion that for this size game MFG is king upon reaching Knights, and the GNP and infrastructure investment to reach the next era of military tech will be too slow compared to going 100% military. I still think that my focus on production will allow me to win if I can negotiate the politics correctly. I have allowed JR4 to complete his GMerchant trade mission at my capital without interference so hopefully that counts for some goodwill in the near-to-intermediate term.

[Cornflakes]

T125:  The world is back at peace ... at least on the surface. Meanwhile I have a covert task force infiltrating Elkad in preparation for war. Anticipated DOW T129 unless Elkad declares first. 

   

Colors in the above screenshot denote turns. ORANGE = T126 (circles are the starting tiles), YELLOW = T127, GREEN = T128, BLUE = T129 (with circles indicating the final staging tile before DOW). LIGHT_BLUE is one chariot that can't reach the true staging tile and will be teleported out at DOW. My slow mover stack will be rolling across the border T129. The goal of the covert task force is at a minimum to divert some of Elkad's forces north. From the BLUE_START tile I can fork Munich and Berlin so it is possible that I may create some real havoc in the back lines. I expect Elkad to sniff out the plan and garrison those cities (or at least Berlin) more heavily, but that still achieves the goal of dividing Elkad's forces.

[Cornflakes]

T127: Preparations are going as planned. Elkad now has a scout poking around in DNA. I moved all of my attack force into view of Elkad's scout this turn. Let's see if he closes borders. I expect walls to pop up in Hamburg which will need to be dealt with (either bombarded or attacked through). I'm considering pausing the Trebuchets 1SE of Hamburg to bombard, while the majority of my forces cross the river to the hill 1E of Hamburg in order to avoid the river-crossing attack penalty. I would leave sufficient units behind to guard the trebuchets, such that if Elkad attacked he would lose more units to kill the trebuchets than the trebuchets would do on offense ... also I have about 4-6 units straggling in a turn late that will advance to also cover the trebuchets, and those units will be able to join in the attack. Therefore the current working plan is to pause and bombard down for at least that one turn. Then I'll evaluate the odds (keeping in mind that each turn I pause to bombard, Elkad's stack will gain additional 5% fortifications).

JR4 adopted Hinduism religion which is BGN's shrine that's curious because he had at least Confucianism available as an alternative and I only saw 2 Hindu cities to start with. That leads me to wonder if JR4 has set his sights on capturing the Hindu shrine off BGN. That would be great news since BGN is the rival I have the least access to. With BGN knocked out of the running I will have immediate borders and therefore easier access to all remaining rivals (bordering Wetbandit through captured Elkad territory).

[Cornflakes]

T128: 1 turn to DoW, unless Elkad declares this turn. The attack stack is assembled in DNA:

   

Every unit in DNA will advance, plus 2 more HA and a Trebuchet that was whipped at DNA this turn (the queued-up spear is a lie). I have 2 swords + 2 crossbow + 1 trebuchet + 2 HA + 1 spear following a turn behind (moving into DNA next turn when the main force advances). There are 3 workers 1SE of DNA as indicated by the sign, ready to road the floodplain for the army to advance.

   

In the north I have 2 more HA in Berlin for a total of 4 HA and 3 chariots. Elkad has a half dozen chariots that he can stuff in plus 2 turns to whip spears so I shouldn't be able to capture Berlin. But I can at least force the whipping of spears rather than archers.

   

In the south I was surprised by the inability to build a watermill on the tile where the activated worker is standing. It seems like only 1 watermill is allowed per river segment? I'm questioning my choice of an archer build at Mammoth. My thought was to boost quantity of defenders by going 1-turn archer > overflow into 1-turn crossbow, but it may have been better to go with a crossbow straight away for quality.

[Old Harry]

You are right about watermills. Annoying things.

Also:

[Cornflakes]

T129: the die is cast. Also, the tech pace in the world seems to be very fast in this game (at least it is quicker than I anticipated). Wetbandit is up to Civil Service and just launched a GA to swap civics.

   

We shall see next turn how Elkad responds in the north, probably whip   at both cities and stuff in some chariots. Tune in tomorrow to find out!

[Cornflakes]

T130: How did Elkad respond in the north?

   

Just as he should. Whipped spears at both cities and killed one of my HA with the spear in the field (if he had just moved the spear towards Berlin then I would have had decent chance of capturing Berlin with that extra attacker). I debated long and hard with myself what to do here. Do I throw everything at Berlin and hope for the best? With 1 more HA I probably would have had more than coin flip odds of capturing Berlin. Previous sims have shown that 4 chariots are needed to reliably kill a spear. I only have 4 units total which leaves nothing for the warrior. Ultimately I decided to throw 1 chariot at the spear just to see how the dice rolled ... not good, but not unexpected only 1 hit.

After that I debated what to do with the remaining units in the north. Under Elkad's axe there is an archer. I had 73% odds on the archer with a chariot plus 3% withdraw. I took the shot since that would give me a guaranteed kill on the axe ... LOSS  0.2 remaining on the archer. I then killed the axe and cleaned up the archer with the HA. Overall not a huge ROI for the northern strike force. I'll probably be able to kill 1 more unit in the north but ultimately I don't think this was worth the cost.

In the south the STACK OF DOOM is rolling onwards