[SPOILERS] Cornflakes and giraflorens PB49 - any stock traders out there?

[Cornflakes]

I have enough gold in the bank for 5.5 turns at 100% making 111 beakers per turn, and 40% break-even. I'll be getting almost a full turn of overflow off of Iron Working and will re-evaluate the Carthage threat and urgency of Construction. Carthage capital just completed a Barracks. No stables visible (as far as I can tell). Power graph has not started to spike. I have an additional "shadow" defensive force with hammers invested into bowmen and spears at both border cities. I figure with the decaying hammers I'll either spend 1 gpt in unit maintenance or 1 hpt in decay, with the option to convert the gpt at any time ... and a 10-turn grace period on the hammer decay which I'll hit in about 2-5 turns from now.

   

I've plastered signs everywhere now to help track worker movement as Iron Working and then Calendar get unlocked. I decided to whip one more worker in the east since I'm already working 3 unimproved tiles there. Two of the "unimproved" tiles are 2f/2c spice a 2f/1h/1c spice-forest so not terrible tiles, but still. I was saving pop for emergency whips if needed but now I have enough pop to still whip down in an emergency. I'll whip the worker off of unimproved tiles, and use the worker to improve tiles. Win-win.

   

I'm only 7 food behind the leader, with 2 pop-1 cities and 2 pop-2 cities. Sell High doesn't have any food resources and will limp larger on riverside farms, but Buy Low will soon have border pop and IW for irrigated Rice (under "clear" sign), Banana, and Cow. I think I'll send an unprotected worker to improve the cow. Support and Resistance both have Gardens and you can the the last Lighthouse completing shortly. I have 4 happiness coming online in the next 10 turns and lots of food to grow-grow-grow if I can manage to remain at peace for 20 turns then I will feel very very happy about my position in this game.

Top power is Mr. Cairo who's borders I haven't located Cairo looks to have maxed out a 4 cities (which seems the natural expansion limit in this game) and seems poised to steal someone else's territory.

[Cornflakes]

T89: Iron Working unlocked! My source of iron ...

   

Popped under a mine at Trailing Stop, but no road connection yet. My rivals will be kept guessing my tech path, unless they are yield-gazing ... or watching jungle start disappearing (starting next turn). The production capacity here just keeps on growing! Up to 25hpt base with +3 food surplus still. Hanging gardens ETA 10-turns from now, for EOT99 completion, just in time for the bit T100 overview ... or maybe that smiley should be   since other players are likely to take a closer look at stats on T100.

Check out the research time on Calendar only 3 turns with enough gold in the bank to burn through! Construction or Currency are each about 8 turns at current breakeven, but research rate will bump up as cities continue to grow (about 2 pop/turn for the next 5-10 turns). Civics costs are currently 6gpt so which given my 50% ORG discount the 6gpt savings is equivalent to about a 5% increment on the research slider. That seems like a non-trivial boost.

   

I haven't shown a screenshot of the southern explorations yet so here you go. First notice the barb warrior highlighted. I think that's only the 2nd non-animal barb that I've seen and maybe the 4th or 5th total barb, given the tight borders! I met Rome for the first time about 3 turns ago. I don't think I posted about Superdeath's pick yet since I was waiting until I met the rivals. But this is was my initial thought after the picks: This sounds like a terribly slow starter. Oracle MC to get forge-powered AGG Praet "rush"? Surely there are easier and quicker ways to get Praets in play. I just feel like Praets will be so slow with these traits that they will miss their opportunity of relevance. Also you won't catch anybody sleeping with AGG, everyone will be closely monitoring the power graph and buffing their border defenses accordingly ... In practice Rome suffered an early setback when Ruff_Hi razed a city. I don't know how much the combo contributed to the decision but I suspect that taking an opportunity to set back a potentially dangerous neighbor played at least a tiny role in the decision.

I also got a rough outline of Incan borders. What jumps out to me in this screenshot is how easy it would be to incorporate Elkad's peninsula into my empire. With some naval support to cut sea reinforcements, I can set up a fairly defensible border city by razing familiar and re-planting on the hill a tile back. Wait, as I type this I realize that hill is only 2 tiles from Elkad's now-hidden former capital on the plains hill   too bad ... I'll have to re-think. Probably best to just capture and keep the coastal location as-is for the Great Lighthouse trade route.

I noticed that Fintourist can trade gold now so he must have researched Currency this turn. What I didn't see was the option to sign OB meaning FT reached Currency through Mathematics. Therefore I likely have competition for Hanging Gardens from an EXP-Aqueduct-boosting rival who likely had a 10+ turn head start. I didn't check if Inca have stone but I'll try to remember next turn. Failgold wouldn't be the worst outcome except that the first 100 hammers into the Aqueduct can't be converted into failgold and would be a wasted investment. I think that I may look back at this Hanging Gardens attempt as a mistake when I should have focused instead on Moai Status in preparation for future naval buildup.

Quick screenshot of demos and graphs:

   
   

[Cornflakes]

Uhhh ... apparently I can’t do math. 3x51 = 151 ... I definitely do not have enough gold in the bank to burn for 3 turns. Maybe I’ll still be able to scrape together enough beakers to finish the last turn at 70 or 80%

[El Grillo]

Having messed up some math of my own today, I feel like I should gently remind you that 3x51 = 153

[Cornflakes]

Having messed up some math of my own today, I feel like I should gently remind you that 3x51 = 153

 well that's embarrassing

Made another mistake today. I think I could have just barely squeezed out Calendar in 3, but I dry-whipped walls at Technical Analysis by mistake this turn. I'm planning to get another settler out of there for the east, and I like to minimize settler/worker build time in order to minimize 1:1 food > production conversion. Therefore I try to whip something that overflows hammers to 50/100 and then 2-whip the settler. I was planning to whip Barracks this turn, decided to wait on the whip for a turn in order to squeeze a couple more commerce out of the extra pop and swapped build to walls, then changed my mind again and decided to whip the barracks ... but forgot to change the build queue back to barracks   so now I've lost the commerce from 2 pop this turn, and I think I was so close that it might be the deciding factor

EDIT: I think it's still possible to get Calendar next turn but it may require giving up too much food/production by working scientists. Walls aren't the worst build either at Technical Analysis. I wanted walls anyway ... just not with a dry-whip this turn. But who knows, maybe walls appearing this turn will be the deciding factor in causing Carthage to push back any attack plans for a few turns.

[Cornflakes]

FT got a 74 point score increase so I logged in expecting to see Hanging Gardens sniped at the worst opportunity, with 100 hammers invested into the Aqueduct and no failgold. But nope! Still available with 7-turn ETA EOT98:

   

Trailing Stop has half of my overall MFG output at 29 base production now. This city has pretty much peaked from a growth perspective. I could trade the plains hill for two plains workshops but otherwise the marginal increase of working a couple coast tiles isn't worth the opportunity cost of the lost production from growing (unless it becomes convenient to swap away the production tiles to the surrounding cities).

From the research bar you can see I managed to complete Calendar last turn, to the exact beaker required with 3 gold to spare  and I only had to give up 1 stone quarry for coast thanks to growth across the empire. This immediately lifted an unhappy face from sugar at Risk Management and Trailing Stop. Breakeven is currently showing 10 turns for construction but I can get it in 9 turns easy and may be able to shave that down to 8 with growth and commerce tiles coming online over the next few turns. Currency would take an extra turn.

   

I won't do a full empire update but I haven't shown the capital in a while. It's up to size 10 now and has been growing into unhappiness in anticipation of the coming luxury boom. The last point of whip anger wears off this turn but this city is probably done whipping. At this size and with an academy whips just don't make sense. Happy cap will be 11 next turn from whip anger, 13 the following turn (dye + spices), 14 a turn later (gems)! T96 I'll have a 2nd sugar hooked to trade for something. FT has an extra Silver that I may try for, but I won't be able to grown nearly as quickly as the luxuries come online so I may try selling luxuries to FT for gold. Even pennies on the dollar would help. 5gpt would save me 1 turn of max tax in 10 turns.

I discovered this screen a couple turns ago   While not a bug this is information creep from the base game. I can see the gold balances of all players and their gpt rate. While it's nice to have this information all on one screen instead of sifting through all the trade windows, normally you can only see gold balance and gpt if either player has Currency.

   

[Cornflakes]

Commodore has whipped over the last couple turns and he declared war to pile on India as expected. Unexpectedly, Commodore declared war on Carthage last turn! And and my C&D advisor believes this is a real hot war. Power ratio on the scoreboard spiked from 1.5 to 1.9. My power has only been inching upwards so Carthage power must have dropped sharply. My first thought is maybe Commodore is making a play for Ras's island city but but Commodore build a road on the plains hill 2NE of Candlesticks (I use my city as a reference because I can't remember how to spell his) and has a couple shock axes in the area. Surely Commodore isn't trying to capture the Carthage starting peninsula For one thing Commodore doesn't have Catapults or enough sheer power to complete the conquest. But more importantly that peninsula would be totally isolated from Commodore's core. Even vs. Boudica I should easily be able to cut off and defeat Commodore's invasion force right as the conquest is completed.

I'm quite content to let Commodore take any island spoils since that will weaken Carthage overall and give me an easier conquest of the mainland. But annexing the Carthaginian homeland is a step too far and would certainly backfire on Commodore in spectacular fashion.

[Cornflakes]

Grab your popcorn Commodore captured the Carthage copper/iron city north of Candlesticks. In response I declared war on Commodore this turn. No time for full report now, just a teaser.

[Cornflakes]

I've had a busy weekend and week so far and it shows I lost an axe in an impulsive advanse, forgot to start working the rice farm at Buy Low which slows the growth curve there by 2 turns and misclicked a worker, which slows down a settler, which means a new city can't be founded in time for Hanging Gardens free pop I now have to decide if I want to delay Hanging Gardens a turn in order to get the free pop. A free pop would be a huge boost to the growth curve at the new city, but I lose out on the yields from the free pop at all my other cities. I think I'll wait. If FT lands Hanging Gardens during that 1 turn delay I'll at lease get a full 298 or so failgold which will be enough for almost all of Currency + Code of Laws.

   

Here is an overview shot with the settler highlighted. I was supposed to have a road there on the hill so that the settler could reach the target tile 1E of Rice next turn and settle T98. Now I'll be a turn late. That's not a spectacular location due to all the overlap. Rather than delay Hanging Gardens I may chose a more advanced border location on the plains hill 2S of sheep. That is a hill location and would help establish the border with Commodore. Actually that makes more sense. Don't delay HG and get a better border site.

Commodore made short work of those two Carthage cities. Now just the capital and presumed-island (was settled shortly after Carthage built a galley). My best hope is that Carthage holds for a half dozen turns allowing me to unlock War Elephants. Commodore is rocking several C3+Shock HA's which are very scary to spears and bows  I'll have construction in 2 but it will take 4 more to get HBR (EOT101). My breakeven rate is 50% right now and it currently takes just over 2 turns of 100% research for HBR. Growth will bring that down to 2 turns but I'll still need two turns of max tax to accumulate the necessary gold.

Commodore's GNP has tanked but capture gold has kept him researching at a decent rate nonetheless. Somebody in the world reach Construction based on GNP-gazing and I'm hoping that is FT rather than Commodore, and also hoping that FT doesn't pile on and split me with Commodore. I'm not in a comfortable geopolitical position sitting here in between FT and Commodore. Hmmm ... that raises and interesting question about how to play the politics. Commodore has already broken any hope of peaceful relations by invading *my* expansion target, and creating a very awkward border. Therefore I want to make friends with FT, probably disregarding the cost or benefit I give to the current game leader. To that end I'll initiate Operation Befriend Inca next turn and start offering some tasty resource trades of my newly connected luxuries. I wish I would have realized this the turn I declared war on Commodore. FT had a spare silver at that time which I suspect he has now swapped for Commodore's gold Huge missed opportunity there for me to immediately build positive relations.

   

This Commodore attack really caught me off guard. Given the narrow 1-tile-wide gap where Commodore borders Carthage I never even considered that to be a possibility. If I had not blundered the placement of Candlestick and instead grabbed the plain hill 2N Commodore wouldn't have had any border there at all 
Looking toward the future I think time is on my side here. I'm researching at a decent pace now while Japan has to be hurting economic-wise. They have no economic traits (other than CHA happy which I also have), while I have ORG which only gets stronger as the game proceeds. Power graph shows Commodore has a decent power advantage now but I think I can adequately deter with bows/spears > catapults/elephants/HA. From there I'll have to decide whether to press a quick attack or delay and continue development.

FT is not spiking yet and given their GNP graph they have to be pushing significant production through wealth builds so I don't perceive imminent danger from the south. Mr. Cairo's attack stalled out just as quickly as it began   I don't see India eliminated there in a 1v1.

[Cornflakes]

Commodore made short work or Carthage, capturing the capital (and presumed final mainland city)    I had logged back in last turn to offer peace to Commodore, having noticed that his HA disappeared from my vision and suspecting the capital would fall shortly. Commodore accepted peace, but from my perspective this is just a peace on convenience until I get the right opportunity to attack. I am currently agonizing over whether to immediately gear for war of conquest for the Carthage peninsula, or whether I wait and trust in my ORG trait to prevail economically.

In favor of waiting:

• I currently have a massive happy cap compared to my city sizes
  
• Decent food potential for growing out to the happy cap
  
• Strong commerce relative to Japan ... Japan in only showing 8 gpt income. It looks like Commodore may suffer my fate from PB43, getting out to an early land and MFG lead with a conquest but then getting stuck in the bronze/iron age. (For reference I have 63 gpt while Inca is showing 80 gpt income)
  
• Commodore is stretched with a long border and I have many opportunities to fork in the future. Once Candlesticks pops borders (15 turns), razing Called Ryukyuan should cut off the peninsula from the rest of the Japanese empire. I think that tile is 4th ring to any other Japanese city so I should have control of that tile preventing Japanese re-settlement.
  
• Equivalent tech war at MGF disadvantage does not sound like a winning strategy.
  
• Defender's advantage should allow me to maintain safe borders.
  

In favor of immediately attacking:

• Not much
  
• Commodore gets 30-50 turns of use out of the cities to my north, and can grow them to whip down when I eventually attack.
  

   

Build queues are showing a lot of military but this will be mostly shaddow military dibbling the current 1-2 hpt for a turn into various units that could be whipped without penalty if needed in the next 10 turns. In 10 turns my hammer cities will have time to get out a couple catapults and war elephants. That should be enough to deter Commodore without a huge whipping spree.

   

This is the current tech snapshot. The future from here is HBR [EOT101] > Currency [EOT106] > Code of Laws [EOT111] >> MC+Machinery >>> Feudalism+Guilds? ... Or maybe Feudalism ahead of Machinery? Samurai are scary attackers. I simmed Samurai vs. Bowman and didn't get quite the optimistic odds now as I remember seeing when I initially simmed after the snakepick. The big question is how long can I deter before needing to show longbows or crossbows?