WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[Bigger]

Tell me why would the wolves refrain from killing villager novice when they know that they had not given him the PR = it is very likely faked?
Why do you think that it did not harm the village? Don't you think that he would have been far more verbose and more lobbying for his suspects without it? I'm sure a novice without PR would have been able to save Sareln.

sigh. Rowain there are plenty of reasons why novice might fake it. Jkaen's is legitimate. To put it plainer, he might want to dirty himself up so he doesn't have the squeeky clean village image him and Zak both had after day 1.

Another reason, just as likely: boredom. Or, he just wanted the extra challenge. This was exactly the reason he faked it in ww13 as scum, why wouldnt he do it again as village?

Another reason: he is mafia (again), and is having fun in the wolf thread laughing at us for letting him get away with faking the exact same post restriction 2 out of 3 games. I guess we'll see if more villagers get hit with a post restriction on day 3.

[Catwalk]

I think that the Bigger/thestick argument is interesting Serdoa (and I'm not shooting at you right now):
A) thestick did keep a tally, so he didn't vote Bigger because.... why wouldn't he vote Bigger?
B) thestick didn't keep a tally, so he didn't vote Bigger because... he didn't know Bigger was close to being lynched?
22:45

As for time to think, trying to rack my brains for more suspects. Bigger stands out a bit for talking about only jumping on if bandwagons form.

22:46 Sareln votes Bigger
22:50 Merovech votes Bigger
22:55 pindicator votes Merovech (and flirts with the idea of hanging Bigger, solely on grounds of his GM actions last game)
22:56 uberfish votes Bigger
22:58 Catwalk votes Bigger

Giving us this tally:

thestick - 9 - zakalwe, novice, Bigger, tasunke, Mattimeo, Arromir, Serdoa, Twinkletoes89, Molach
Bigger - 8 - Rowain, Lewwyn, Injera, Jkaen, Sareln, Merovech, uberfish, Catwalk
Injera - 2 - Gaspar, Waterbat
Waterbat - 1 - Azza
uberfish - 1 - Qgqqqqq
Gaspar - 1 - Selrahc
Jkaen - 1 - Meiz
Merovech - 1 - Pindicator

So we know this:
1) There was a steady stream of votes going in Bigger's direction starting 15 minutes before lynch time
2) thestick was around, he said he was suspicious of Bigger and trying to decide who to vote for
3) Noone else was anywhere near gaining enough votes

So why on earth didn't he switch? Whether he kept a tally or not, there is no reason not to switch to Bigger if he knew Bigger was townie. The fact that he'd still be one short is not relevant, he could have switched much sooner hoping for support. There is no reason not to, and we know (by his own admission) that he was looking for ways to save himself.

Alternate theory: thestick knew he was going down, and he prepared for taking the fall by suggesting that fellow scum Bigger was suspicious. When he saw that Bigger might actually end up hanging, he decided it was getting dangerous and stayed away. I think this makes sense, as there was massive suspicion on thestick and he was probably dead the following day even if scum Bigger had been lynched. Whereas Bigger could claim village cred (if he survived) for being set up for a last minute push by a confirmed scum.

[Jkaen]

Possibly,

Or we have some very clever scum, who knew we would pick apart the fact that thestick didnt vote (when at that point they may have written him off) and decided the village needed a nice distraction.

Its worth bearing in mind, but I can't see it by itself telling us much.

I will try to do a post by post analsysis on bigger tomorrow and see what comes up, but I would be surprised if its that scummy

[Rowain]

a. 1 day of fully functioning novice
b. 1 day of post restricted novice followed by 1 day of fully functioning novice

Again slowly perhaps I waqs too fast for you: Why would scum leave nvillager novice alive when they fully well know that they did not givehim the PR??? BTW I can accept that you fail to crasp such points but I'm quite sure that novice would not misss them (ie He can hope that the fear of Cloaker keeps him save this game but nothing else).

sigh. Rowain there are plenty of reasons why novice might fake it. Jkaen's is legitimate. To put it plainer, he might want to dirty himself up so he doesn't have the squeeky clean village image him and Zak both had after day 1.

Again scum does know if they gave him the PR or not so why would they keep him alive if it faked??

Another reason, just as likely: boredom. Or, he just wanted the extra challenge. This was exactly the reason he faked it in ww13 as scum, why wouldnt he do it again as village?

AFAIK he faked as wolf because it gave him great cover and not out of boredom. That you insinuate he fakes it (which would mean his lynch if it is revealed) just to have more fun and wants to hamper the village that way is

Please tell me a good reason why a villager (no matter if novice or not) would fake that restriction? Even more why you think it very plausible that he did so.

Another reason: he is mafia (again)

You mean he is mafia again and therefor fakes the PR as villager

At the end only for the amount of ****** shown.

[Serdoa]

Serdoa, there was a very big bunch of people around at lynch time, so yes I think switching was realistic. If you wanted to hang Ichabod, you could have simply stuck with him (with 3 minutes left) and checked to see if I switched or not. And you could have answered my question rather than mislead me about it.

Show me the part when I was misleading you. The exact quote please.

And Ichabod would have hung. How is that not your responsibility?

Because you never switched.

Also, notice that I asked for a tally the same instant you posted one. Were you unaware we x-posted or are you throwing dirt on me for shits and giggles?

catwalk F5, F5 catwalk. Have a good time together. Shall I introduce you to tabs as well? He is great at doing things simultaneously. For example, he can have one browser-window open with a pre-written post (for switching for example) and on another one he follows the thread (he is using F5 for that in indescribable ways... sick bastard). And all the while he is also chewing gum.

However, there is an easy solution to this. You claim I was protecting Ichabod (even though I was apparently protecting Sareln throughout the day), I claim I was happy to see Ichabod hang. I'm still happy to see him hang tomorrow, depending on what happens. You said he should have hung, so I assume you still think he's a good lynch candidate. If we both back a lynch on him tomorrow, that ought to alleviate some of the mutual distrust and we can find out if either was actually protecting him or if it was just a misunderstanding.

I'll happily hang him tomorrow.

[Jkaen]

Again slowly perhaps I waqs too fast for you: Why would scum leave nvillager novice alive when they fully well know that they did not givehim the PR??? BTW I can accept that you fail to crasp such points but I'm quite sure that novice would not misss them (ie He can hope that the fear of Cloaker keeps him save this game but nothing else).


Again scum does know if they gave him the PR or not so why would they keep him alive if it faked??


AFAIK he faked as wolf because it gave him great cover and not out of boredom. That you insinuate he fakes it (which would mean his lynch if it is revealed) just to have more fun and wants to hamper the village that way is






You mean he is mafia again and therefor fakes the PR as villager

At the end only for the amount of ****** shown.

I love you too Rowain.

Answer that covers above - villager has the ability and thought they were targetting a werewolf with it.

But more to the point, why do you care so much about this?

[uberfish]

Catwalk makes a good point about thestick most likely having given up because he couldn't have known who would crosspost with him, but my analysis of the wagons hasn't changed with the most suspicious "alternate wagon" voters still being Pind/TT/Mero. I will add that the most likely scum bussing/distancing slots on Thestick are Arromir/Bigger due to their behaviour on day 2. Arromir acted guilty about it and Bigger decided to coast on the "scum tried to save thestick" theory.

It's true Ichabod didn't do much but defend himself, however imo he was forced into that mode due to constant meta attacks on him, so that has not convinced me he is actually guilty. I actually feel the Ichabod discussion has been an unwelcome distraction from the more important business of sorting out what was going on on the d1 wagons (and now d2 wagons too, that early Sareln wagon was crap and no doubt had scum sitting on it), any chance you guys could leave that to day 4?

[Selrahc]

Novce has a few good reasons for lying about a post restriction as a villager:

1. It feeds false information to the wolves. They may well assume that there is a village post restricter when there isn't. Or...
2. The wolves think that they can catch Novice in a lie and vote him dead. Novice thinks he can explain himself if he is eventually caught out. It might therefore decrease his chances of being nightkilled. Of course maybe it wasn't the reaction of the wolves, but the reaction of the village and so Novice was
3. Lying to build up village cred... but from a position of actually being a villager. A trusted villager is really useful, particularly if they have good reads. People unconsciously or actively mirror their positions and it lends them all sorts of weight. A lie to improve the position of the village.

He could also have being doing
4. being whimsical and having a bit of fun. Using the quotes of others is quite a powerful rhetorical technique, and it looks quite fun. Potentially a motive in addition to other reasons.

Of course the simplest and most likely explanation is just
5. Novice was hit with a post restriction by the wolves to minimize his help to the village, after a good day one.

[Rowain]

But more to the point, why do you care so much about this?

Because the stupidity of saying a villager novice would fake it does rub me wrong on every nerve. And I do try to find out if those saying it are a)villagers and really that ..... or b) wolves trying to throw as much dirt as possible on novice.

[Rowain]

And I think I got my answer