[SPOILERS] Magic Science and Mr. Cairo in Pitboss 40

[Mr. Cairo]

All that sounds good, getting that silver would be useful (although a plains wheat isn't exactly what I'd call decent food).

Archery is an important step considering the situation in this game, so getting it now seems like a good plan, it's such a cheap tech too.

At this point in my games I tend to try and beeline Currency via Maths (for the chopping bonus). However, getting Alphabet as well as Maths before Currency might be the better plan. If we can establish a trade route to a neighbor and sign OB, it'll give us a lot of commerce, as much as an additional internal trade route would give us from Currency. Also, getting a second pre-req for Currency reduces it's cost by another 20%, so I would suggest the following tech path after Pottery:
Archery -> Writing -> Maths -> Alphabet -> Currency

It may seem early to be going for Currency, but we really want to avoid crashing our economy too hard with our rexing, and we really need to rex as much as possible to leverage our economic advantages over the opposition.

[Magic Science]

Turn 39 – 2440 BC
   
The barbarians were nice, so Moncacht-Ape was able to continue moving in a productive direction. The jungle-covered ivory there is a very interesting find. Judging by the position of our jungle-covered ivory, I am almost totally convinced that another player’s capital is nearby to the south. Based on how shallow_thought’s scouting warrior is moving, it is probably not him. Moncacht-Ape will move to the ivory tile to investigate.

   
I am starting to get worried about the security of Hong Kong (the name I have settled on for red dot). shallow_thought and the barbarians both have a warrior nearby enough to interfere, which makes me uncomfortable when we only have one quechua on defense. I decided to start moving Quechua Two in that direction; he can be in Hong Kong on Turn 43.

However, what is concerning me more is the power graph that you see above. What is that large jump in power at the end? Could Superdeath have finished an impi? I think that Cuzco should start an axe after it finishes Settler Two, and it seems like a good idea for Hong Kong to go for an archer as one of its first builds.

While we are on the subject of Superdeath, it is worth noting that he still has not allocated any of his espionage points anywhere other than on us. Has he not met anyone else? At this point I am wondering if he has met someone else and is being aggressive towards us. Another piece of information about Superdeath is that Civstats indicates that he founded his third city this turn! I can check that for sure when I log in again, but if is true, then that is very fast!

   
This is the current state of the Incan League as Phase Three comes to an end. I will try to transition my ideas for Phase Four from rough thoughts in my head to a refined plan on (virtual) paper very soon (the next turn is already available to play!). I will try to read the tea leaves Superdeath’s power graph soon as well.

All that sounds good, getting that silver would be useful (although a plains wheat isn't exactly what I'd call decent food).

Archery is an important step considering the situation in this game, so getting it now seems like a good plan, it's such a cheap tech too.

At this point in my games I tend to try and beeline Currency via Maths (for the chopping bonus). However, getting Alphabet as well as Maths before Currency might be the better plan. If we can establish a trade route to a neighbor and sign OB, it'll give us a lot of commerce, as much as an additional internal trade route would give us from Currency. Also, getting a second pre-req for Currency reduces it's cost by another 20%, so I would suggest the following tech path after Pottery:
Archery -> Writing -> Maths -> Alphabet -> Currency

It may seem early to be going for Currency, but we really want to avoid crashing our economy too hard with our rexing, and we really need to rex as much as possible to leverage our economic advantages over the opposition.

I agree with your proposed technology path. Thank you for your input. If you want to get Currency, then you need to start going towards it BEFORE you crash your economy, right?

[Magic Science]

Turn 40 – 2400 BC
   
Welll, it looks like I am half right and half wrong. There is another player to the south of the ivory, but it is shallow_thought. I am not sure if that city is shallow_thought’s second city or capital, but I suspect that it is his second city. Moncacht-Ape will go to grassland forest hill to investigate unless a barbarian or Orphan unit interferes.


   
I checked Superdeath’s trade screen, and apparently that mid-turn score-bump of 8 points was not him settling a third city. Do you have any idea what it could be? The theory I am running with now is that the score increase was actually an end-of-turn population growth, but Civstats messed up and placed it too early because Superdeath was the last to play the turn. That score increase and the end of the turn happened within the same minute, so it seems plausible.

Also, you can kind of see the home front in the background of the trade screen. Right now, Settler Two is stacked with Quechua Two to the west of Sidon. It will move to the copper forest next turn and then settle Hong Kong on Turn 42. We may actually be the first ones to join the Three-City Club. I started Axeman One in Cuzco and started researching Pottery at 100%.

Lastly, I did figure out a plan for Phase Four, I just need to transcribe it from a spreadsheet to text.

[WilliamLP]

When multiple events happen in the same minute, I don't think you can rely on how they are ordered in CivStats.

[Magic Science]

Turn 41 – 2360 BC
   
I was wrong again. It seems to be happening a lot recently. The Orphan city that Moncacht-Ape discovered has expanded cultural borders, so it must be Bad Beginning, shallow_thought’s capital. The presence of sugar and copper also act to confirm that conclusion. Fog gazing indicates that there is Orphan culture further to the east than the BFC of Bad Beginning, so I am pretty sure that shallow_thought’s second city is over there. These findings are not good news; shallow_thought is far too close to the silver and wheat site for my liking. However, I do think that we have a good chance of getting that site anyway. We can get it fairly soon, around Turn 60, and that spot appears to be a long reach for shallow_thought. Hopefully his third city goes in another direction.

   
Here is an actual screenshot of the home front, rather than a Superdeath trade screen with the home front in the background. Everything is going according to plan (which I will post soon, I promise! ), and Hong Kong is settled next turn.

When multiple events happen in the same minute, I don't think you can rely on how they are ordered in CivStats.

Thank you for the information, again. It seems that my theory about Superdeath is probably correct.

[Mr. Cairo]

Well, everything looks under control, normally I wouldn't want to build an axe this early in the game, but all things considered it seems like a wise precaution. Hopefully we'll be first to three cities too

ST is closer than I imagined, but I think we can get away with that silver city, provided we have a decent military to defend it. It would be an aggressive plant, but worthwhile if we can pull it off.

I'll also say how impressed I am at the efforts you're going through to plan ahead, spreadsheets and all. I never did much of that in my first game (then again, I never learned how to use excel to if full potential.)

[Magic Science]

Phase Four:
Turn 40: Cuzco works copper, crab, corn, and sheep while building Axeman One. Sidon works sugar while building Quechua Three. Workers One, Two, and Three finish building roads.
Turn 41: Cuzco works copper, crab, sheep, and the grassland mine. Sidon works corn. Worker One moves one south, Worker Two moves one west of Sidon, and Worker Three moves to the copper forest.
Turn 42: Sidon grows and starts working the grassland mine. Cuzco works copper, crab, sugar, and sheep. Worker One and Three start chopping; Worker Two joins Worker Three. Hong Kong is founded, works the copper forest, and builds a quechua.
Turn 43: Sidon finishes Quechua Three and starts on another quechua. Hong Kong switches to working the unimproved rice. Worker Two starts mining.
Turn 44: Cuzco finishes Axeman One, picks up the grassland mine, and starts building a Terrace. Sidon switches to building a Terrace and working a floodplain instead of the grassland mine. Hong Kong switches to building a Terrace. Worker One and Worker Three finish their chopping.
Turn 45: Cuzco finishes a Terrace and starts on Settler Three. Sidon whips off of the floodplains. Worker One runs one northwest of Sidon. Worker Two and Worker Three finish the copper mine at Hong Kong, and Hong Kong starts working that tile.
Turn 46: Sidon grows, finishes the Terrace, picks up the grassland hill mine, and starts a worker. Cuzco switches to working a plains forest hill. Worker Two and Three road the copper mine. Worker One runs to east of Hong Kong.
Turn 47: Hong Kong finishes the Terrace and resumes building a quechua. Worker One roads. Worker Two runs to rice and starts farming. Worker Three runs one north of the rice.
Turn 48: Sidon whips off of the grassland mine. Cuzco double-whips off of the plains hill and sugar. Worker One finishes roading. Worker Three starts roading. 
Turn 49: Settler Two is done and moves out. Worker Three finishes roading.

The rest of Turn 49 and onwards: I have some ideas, but I am still working them out.

Tea Leaves:
   
First rise, Turn 0: Hunting.
Second rise, Turn 7: Mining.
Third rise: Population growth.
Fourth rise: Warrior.
Fifth rise, Turn 21: Bronze Working.
Sixth rise, Turn 29: The Wheel.
Seventh rise: Warrior.
Eighth rise: Population.

I’m not sure what happens after that. It appears that the ninth and tenth rise in the graph are 6000 and 4000 soldiers, respectively, but I don’t know what those points come from. I know that Superdeath has completed Ikandas in both Superman and Batman (information from the culture graph and the Victory Screen), and they have been around long enough to show up on the graph. He spent ten turns researching a technology, and its completion coincides with the 6000 solider increase, but I don’t know if it was actually the cause of that increase.
Ikandas are worth 3000 solider points each, and Impis are worth 4000. 10000 total soldier points are enough to account for two Ikandas and an impi, but because I know that he didn’t get both Ikandas at the same time, there are not 4000 soldiers unaccounted for in any one place, so I don’t think that he has completed an Impi yet.

In conclusion I don’t want to get careless, but I am feeling less frightened of a potential Impi attack now than before I did this exercise. Still, I need to be cautious. An Impi completed in Superman could attack Hong Kong five turns later, which would leave me with only 3 turns to react after seeing the power increase on the graph. I will be glad to have Axeman One in the area in a few turns.

ST is closer than I imagined, but I think we can get away with that silver city, provided we have a decent military to defend it. It would be an aggressive plant, but worthwhile if we can pull it off.

I will aim for something like two archers and two quechuas as the initial defense force of green city. I will try to get a spearman in the city fairly quickly too, considering that we are up against Immortals. I do think that we can pull it off. Our traits our quite well suited for this sort of thing.

I'll also say how impressed I am at the efforts you're going through to plan ahead, spreadsheets and all. I never did much of that in my first game (then again, I never learned how to use excel to if full potential.)

I’m flattered. Thank you.  Hopefully my planning pays off.

[Magic Science]

     
Well, so much for that.  I doubt that this will be game over, because Axeman One (and probably Two, and Three, and Four, considering the change in circumstances), will be done in time to protect Cuzco and Sidon, but it is game over for actually having a hope of victory. Evidently my Cloak and Dagger skills need work, if I couldn’t even spot this coming. I left everything else unmoved and undecided for now (except Moncacht-Ape, because I moved him before settling Hong Kong) because I want to think about things more, and if you have any advice that would be great.

What makes me the most upset about this is that if I had thought to move Quechua Two west one turn earlier that I did, then he could have been in Hong Kong this turn.

   
Enjoy this demographics screenshot for the one turn that we will have it. I know that the demographics don’t necessarily mean much this early on, but seeing that many 1s is nice. Also, note that we are first on the scoreboard as well. We were indeed the first ones to join the Three-City Club.

EDIT: By about thirty minutes. Civstats shows that shallow_thought just founded his third city.

[Magic Science]

Well, now that things have gone horribly wrong, it is time to consider how to act so that things don’t go quite as horribly wrong as they could potentially go. I definitely don’t intend to give up. Fight to the end, never surrender, etc. When I read old pitboss reports, I always hated to read that some civilizations just gave up and died when things went wrong, and I don’t want that to be me.

   
I already realized where I went wrong in my earlier reading of the tea leaves. For some reason, I had it in my head that Bronze Working is worth 6000 soldiers, rather than 8000. I used the rise on the graph from Bronze Working as a meter stick to determine how much later increases on the graph were worth, so I thought those later increases were worth less than they actually are. There is room for an Impi and two Ikandas in the power total that the graph actually represents. I suspect that there is room for another as well.
But that graph reading failure is in the past. What do we do now? Here is the situation around Hong Kong again:
   
Quechua One should move into the city. He will probably lose, and Hong Kong will be razed anyway, but I don’t want to give up the chance that he will win. I am less sure about what all of the other units and cities should do.

Sidon should probably switch to an axeman before finishing the quechua it is building. A quechua will do no good against an Impi attack, but an axeman could win, and in the worst-case scenario (the Impi razes Hong Kong and then immediately advances directly on Sidon) the city needs to start an axeman now to finish it in time. Cuzco should probably continue on its current path. It can finish an axeman for protection, and then it can use its high production and population to quickly produce whatever the situation dictates (probably more military). Hong Kong is almost certainly doomed, so what it does it not of great importance. However, in the unlikely case that it survives I think that the best move is to start a quechua while working the copper forest. It moves it towards contributing another military unit as fast as possible.

I think that Quechua Two (the one east of the ivory) should advance to the copper forest. If the city is razed, then he can show us how much health the Impi has and based on that he could either attack the wounded Impi or retreat to bolster Sidon’s defenses. If the city survives, he can reinforce it.

I am most uncertain about what do with the workers. Worker One (the one by Cuzco) should probably go through with his chop. The plan to put that chop into a settler is unlikely to happen, but I am sure that we will be able to find some use for it. Worker Three is on the copper forest by Hong Kong. He could retreat, chop in place, or run forward and try to do some kind of luring maneuver against the Impi. Worker Two is one tile west of Sidon, so he has many option on where to move and what to do. I am thinking of having Worker Two and Worker Three combine efforts to build a road two tiles east of Hong Kong. They would be safe, and that road would not benefit enemy units coming towards Sidon, but it would benefit any units of ours heading west away from Sidon in the future.

There is also the matter of research. Should we keep researching Pottery even in the midst of disaster? The alternative is jumping right to researching Archery. I favor continuing towards Pottery. Maybe I am hopelessly optimistic, but I feel that we must continue to develop despite this setback, and getting Pottery is good for that. Archers are good (especially because Impis have a special -40% weakness against archers), but axemen can do a fine job defending cities, and they can also fight Impis in the field, which archers would struggle to do. That is not to say that we don’t want Archery soon (right after Pottery, just as planned), but I think that it can wait a few turns.

Lastly, I am thinking about the gambit of preemptively declaring war on Superdeath and offering peace. I am not thinking about it too much, though. It doesn’t seem like a good idea. It signals our vulnerability to him (why else would we declare and then send peace?), which would remove the small chance that he does not attack because he does not realize the opportunity he has.

Those are my current thoughts about what is going on. I am going to sleep on the situation and decide for good in the morning. The other players might be grumpy about me taking so long, but I do not want to rush into a decision that I will regret for months.

[Mr. Cairo]

My advice is to stick to pottery, move quecha 2 to the forest, swap to an axe in sidon and try and get 5 hammers in it this turn so we can whip it. I'd keep the worker on the copper forest for know. We have a decent shot of keeping the city.
What's the eta for the axe out of Cuzco? Should it be whipped? Even if it's nearly done a whip might let us get another very quickly afterwards. 

I don't think I would have played this any differently so don't beat yourself up over it. Worst case scenario is we lose 115 hammers and superdeath makes an enemy for life. The game isn't necessarily over yet.