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(January 6th, 2021, 20:18)MJW (ya that one) Wrote: If Trump runs in 2024 and is nominee, this is very bad for him.
If not no one will care by that time
I don't think he'll declare before 2022, because unless Biden runs again, he'll be too old.
MJW, I think events are moving faster than you realize. MSNBC reported that Elaine Chao (Mitch’s wife and Transportation Secretary) is considering resigning. That’s not a conversation you have if Mitch isn’t planning on dumping Trump before the 20th.
I’m amending my prediction.
I think there’s at least a 50% chance that by midnight Eastern on the 7th, Trump will either not be President, or the 25th will have been invoked.
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Trump survives every scandal, every lie, every idiocy. He was caught trying to solicit election fraud in Georgia and still got support and senators and representatives were still going through with their charade today (and as mentioned republicans candidates involved in that and supported by him still got massive support). Maybe this is finally the "oh maybe we shouldn't appease him it has consequences" moment. I'll believe it when it happens.
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(January 6th, 2021, 21:37)Cyneheard Wrote: (January 6th, 2021, 20:18)MJW (ya that one) Wrote: If Trump runs in 2024 and is nominee, this is very bad for him.
If not no one will care by that time
I don't think he'll declare before 2022, because unless Biden runs again, he'll be too old.
MJW, I think events are moving faster than you realize. MSNBC reported that Elaine Chao (Mitch’s wife and Transportation Secretary) is considering resigning. That’s not a conversation you have if Mitch isn’t planning on dumping Trump before the 20th.
I’m amending my prediction.
I think there’s at least a 50% chance that by midnight Eastern on the 7th, Trump will either not be President, or the 25th will have been invoked.
I don't know that it would be an "either/or" situation. If the situation moves towards removal we're likely to see both processes occur at once. At least one congressperson (Rep Ilhan Omar, for better or for worse depending on your viewpoint) is drafting articles of impeachment and murmurs about the 25th amendment have reached the Senate during the AZ objection debate. As I type Pence has left the Senate floor while they wait for the house to complete their vote. There's a very small possibility that he comes back to the Senate with the invocation before vote counting continues.
January 7th, 2021, 01:10
(This post was last modified: January 7th, 2021, 01:11 by wetbandit.)
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(January 6th, 2021, 18:01)Bobchillingworth Wrote: I suppose if there's a silver lining to today, it's that the combination of the Democrats taking the senate combined with the savagery on display from the Capitol rioters will likely help discredit Trumpism as a political force.
I want to believe this, but from the start of Trump's candicacy, sophisticated and successful pols have acted in accordance with Trump because they perceive it to be in their interest. I assume that interest is to be reelected or to otherwise increase their personal political power. I'm not saying that all, or any, GOP House members or Senators necessarily support authoritarianism. Pols are fundamentally inclined to attempt to act in a way to get reelected, for money, or for power.
It saddens me that I don't think any of what happened today changes this calculation for many pols. Even after the MAGA occupation, 121 GOP House members objected to the Arizona certification. That was a reduction from the ~145 that signed on to the crazy Texas lawsuit, but still an absurd amount. Then Josh Hawley still thought it was worthwhile to sign onto the PA objection, even though no debate took place in the Senate. What a profile in courage, Mr. Hawley.
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(January 7th, 2021, 01:10)wetbandit Wrote: Then Josh Hawley still thought it was worthwhile to sign onto the PA objection, even though no debate took place in the Senate. What a profile in courage, Mr. Hawley.
I was watching the debate on CSPAN; Hawley was the only Senator to speak directly into the camera, the rest were speaking to their colleagues. I think that tells you all you need to know.
It wasn’t just the mob today that hurt Trumpism, losing the Senate will give pause to any politician with ambitions beyond a small, bright red congressional district.
Darrell
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We had 4 years of evidence that didn't convince his voters, are there really that many who will see this as a breaking point? It was a popular discussion point pre-election too, it's not like this is some totally unexpected, out of character action. I hope you guys are right but given that 74m people sent out a signal two months ago that they don't care about his antics, I find it hard to believe that trumpism won't be at the centre of the republican party for the next while.
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Yeah, it doesn't appear that the Republican party had any overnight epiphany. Pence's letter, which was praised as a model of courage, still contained references to "voting irregularities", and said he would "welcome the efforts of Senate and House members who have stepped forward to use their authority under the law to raise objections and present evidence." As wetbandit said, Republicans, with very few exceptions, will continue to ignore or parrot Trump's lies as long as they think it's in their best interest.
January 7th, 2021, 12:06
(This post was last modified: January 7th, 2021, 12:06 by Jowy.)
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Republicans want to use these lies to make it harder to vote for poor people in cities and minorities. Voter suppression is the key for Republicans to win elections.
Bobchillingworth
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(January 7th, 2021, 08:12)The Black Sword Wrote: We had 4 years of evidence that didn't convince his voters, are there really that many who will see this as a breaking point?
I don't know; there's a fair number of folks in my local Nextdoor community who 100% conservatives, but in the "classic" Republican mold, who are currently posting about their disgust with yesterday's events... but I live in an area where the general population is both significantly wealthier and better educated than most of the rest of the nation. It also wouldn't surprise me if these people snap back to voting straight-ticket Republican the second someone who isn't a drooling fascist is on the ballot.
But you also don't need all that many conservatives to decide they're just going to stay home to lock the Republican Party out of contention in close elections, so I do think there's going to be significant internal pressure for reform.
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