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Civ4 AI Survivor 2: The AI-stralian Outback

Yeah Gandhi is orange, Asoka is purple.
Lord Parkin
Past games: Pitboss 4 | Pitboss 7 | Pitboss 14Pitboss 18 | Pitboss 20 | Pitboss 21
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As much as Darius's land looks great, he always seems to suck at these survivor-style games. Last year I played out 5 trial survivor games with him, and he almost always was the first to get eliminated regardless of his start. He never finished in the top 3.

My money is on Gandhi or Saladin. Roosevelt, Asoka and Gilgamesh have worse land, and Gilgamesh really doesn't seem suited to this bracket.
Lord Parkin
Past games: Pitboss 4 | Pitboss 7 | Pitboss 14Pitboss 18 | Pitboss 20 | Pitboss 21
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4 beards vs the 2 non-beards ... hmm.

There should be a diplo penalty for having different facial hair.

Gandi+Roosevelt alliance ftw!! :P
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Tempted to retire now... But no:

Darius will get a tech lead and then Gilgamesh will suicide into him, donating enough land that he'll happily tech into space while everyone else holds hands and chants.
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I decided to go with something that may or may not be obvious from the map: a Gandhi cultural victory. I pegged Darius to finish second, and the game date to end on turn 375, though that might be really late. I'm hoping Darius absorbs Gilgamesh's land (= first to die), but that Darius ignores Gandhi due to peaceweight or possibly religion.
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I went for Darius to die first. I kept checking the starts and I didn't see any metal nearby for him. Add to that the fact that all other AI will likely start getting a little pissy about close borders with him and he could struggle - especially if the religion battle creates an Asoka/Gandhi alliance.

Probably won't happen, as that start is economically godly - but I'd like to see it just so we have an unexpected winner
"You want to take my city of Troll%ng? Go ahead and try."
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Does anyone know how the AI decides which tech to research at any given point? Is it a weighted RNG or does it follow some algorithm?
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I think Gilgamesh is one of the best leaders, but his start really sucks. Even so, I'm betting he wins by domination, so that must mean he kills Darius first. After that, he proceeds to smash the peaceniks Gandhi and Roosevelt. Saladin will be second place just because he'll be the only one not attacked by the Sumerian juggernaut.
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AI research is a weighted RNG, yes. Weights include many things, but the heaviest are availability of a first-to bonus (religion, GP, tech) and strength of military units enabled. AI flavor preferences have a medium weight.
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I had time today to convert Parkin's summary for the last game into HTML today and put it on the website. Thanks again! goodjob http://www.garath.net/Sullla/civ4survivor2-2.html

Answering other questions:

- Yes, the next game is intended for Saturday (March 7) because I have a series of appointments lined up for my off day on Friday. Not on Friday this week, perhaps again down the road.

- You guys correctly pointed out that getting the top two leaders correct in reverse order is supposed to be worth 5 points total, not 3 points apiece = 6 points. I've fixed this on my spreadsheet, and it will be correct when I put up the new bracket/results after Game Three. Thanks for catching this.

- Asoka has the default pink India, Gandhi has the orange civ. The score list in the bottom corner of the screenshot has the correct colors.

For the curious, we have about 75 predictions entered at the moment. This game looks to be less compelling than the last one, so we'll see how many we get in the end. That's still about 50% higher than any of the games last year, with another four days to go.
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