American Politics Discussion Thread

[darrelljs]

I'm confused, what situation is dire currently?

Trump co-opting the Republican Party to end US democracy.

And who, anywhere, is foregoing righteous indignation? Truly, genuinely curious.

Brian by turning down a possible defector.

If Republicans fed up with Trump have nowhere to turn, they'll stick with him.

Darrell

[Commodore]

I'm confused, what situation is dire currently?

Trump co-opting the Republican Party to end US democracy.

And who, anywhere, is foregoing righteous indignation? Truly, genuinely curious.

Brian by turning down a possible defector.

If Republicans fed up with Trump have nowhere to turn, they'll stick with him.

Darrell

I don't see much indication that the issue is Trump vs. Republicans so much as base vs. Republicans, with Trump as a chosen hammer. Looks to me like the basic GOP issue is that most of their voters would trust a shitposting anonymous G-12 loon on 4chan over most elected Senators/Reps.

[Amicalola]

And who, anywhere, is foregoing righteous indignation? Truly, genuinely curious.

Brian by turning down a possible defector.

If Republicans fed up with Trump have nowhere to turn, they'll stick with him.

Darrell

I don't see much indication that the issue is Trump vs. Republicans so much as base vs. Republicans, with Trump as a chosen hammer. Looks to me like the basic GOP issue is that most of their voters would trust a shitposting anonymous G-12 loon on 4chan over most elected Senators/Reps.

Some of their elected officials would too. Have you ever had a gander at Ted Cruz' twitter? 

[MJW (ya that one)]

Ratings: I don't give percent. It's about how I feel

Solid: I don't see how this team doesn't win. I could be wrong though so this is not called "Safe". Also no-one is ever Safe because of scandals and such; see LA-02 @ 2008.
Likely: This team should win, but could plausibly lose
Lean: Clear edge
Tossup/Tilt: If I were serious I would just use tossup ratings because where to tilt things is too subjective. Tossup: Everything Else. Tilt: I guess this team wins.

AK: Only the current Senator or hard-right challenger can win AK this year. I put the Senator in blue in order to show it on the map. I feel that DEMs won't brother to put up a real candidate so she is able to sneak into the final round and win. 

Edit: Overall rating Lean D: Manchin being the last DINO isn't important anymore because the DEMs should lose the House; so 51 is the only target this year.

   

[MJW (ya that one)]

Solid R: Too red for a DEM to win expect OH; but Portman being strong pushes it out. MO is weak and almost lost in 2016, but he doesn't have to ever face again a DEM who doesn't have a hard-on for abortion. I don't consider primary challenges at this stage, but Eric Greitens would put it in Likely. Already talked about AK.

Solid D: Too blue expect CO, but mail-in ballot being sent, even if you don't request it, negates the enthusiasm gap and pushes it out of reach.

Likely R: Not willing to blow off DEMs in FL yet but Trump has shown the path to domination: kick in the nads over and over again about Cuba. DEMs cannot respond because it just takes attention away from other issues. IA Senator is too old and if he retires a dumb GOPer could when as he only needs 35% to avoid not getting the nomination. Solid R if anyone decent wins.

Likely D: Nothing.

Lean R: NC isn't that blue anymore and it's an open seat. Cal would have won if he kept it in his pants but only because Tillis is weak.

Lean D: Fetterman=God. He chased someone with a shotgun which should actually help him remove the blemish of Harvard; PA=Lean D. NV: Actually voted to the right of the nation this year but the Reid machine makes mean lean this to D; especially considering a wrench was through into this year due to COVID-19.

Tossup. NH; Sununu. WI incumbent made dumb comment about riot. AZ/GA barely won against weak opposition. I feel AZ is worst off so I made it flip but made everything else hold.

My individual ratings are nice to GOP, so that's why the overall rating is lean D, even through the map says tilt.

[Mjmd]

This was posted about a year ago. I mentioned a while back about how important soft power was and how bad pissing off your allies is. This has some excellent world geopolitics. It is an hour, but I highly recommend.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhMAt3BluAU

[darrelljs]

This was posted about a year ago. I mentioned a while back about how important soft power was and how bad pissing off your allies is. This has some excellent world geopolitics. It is an hour, but I highly recommend.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhMAt3BluAU

About half way through and very much enjoying it .  Here's another 538 blog link that I found interesting.

I find it helpful to place this moment in a broader historical context, as I think there are two trends at play here. First, decades of mobilization and a fight for a more democractic, inclusive society have brought about generational changes in America’s politics, including more women, people of color and other long-excluded groups now having a seat at the table. That has made our politics more inclusive and more democratic, but there is a second trend here — a politics of resentment that cannot tolerate this growing diversity. This mindset is particularly rampant within the Republican Party, and part of what CNN’s Van Jones has called a “whitelash,” or conservative white Christian Americans mobilizing against the type of progress embodied by President Barack Obama’s time in office. The Atlantic’s Adam Serwer has also written on the pendulum swinging between moments of progress on inclusion and white resistance.

Do people generally agree that's what driving current events?

Darrell

[Commodore]

Do people generally agree that's what driving current events?

Nobody reads Sir John Glubb I see.

[Jowy]

Do people generally agree that's what driving current events?

Darrell

I think ultimately the Republicans are a party that only wants to benefit the very few at the top, meaning themselves and their corporate donors, but at the same time they still need to find votes to stay in power. Racism is just one of the things they can weaponize to divide the country at basically no cost to themselves. To me the core cause is the manipulation of the people by the Republican party. Racism is an issue, but if it wasn't, they would use something else to rile up their base.

[superdeath]

Racism and alot of patriotism.