[SPOILERS] Woof! Woof! Bad dog! No biscuit! Charadon of the Doviello

[Ellimist]

Units are in position to initiate a strike within the next couple turns. I'll be able to hire 8 wolf riders, which is a bit less than I had hoped for but waiting too much longer doesn't seem like a great idea.
I need to collect another turn or two of gold so that I won't go bankrupt as soon as my units enter his territory.

Mist said in chat that Gilden has tons of first strikes, so I may be in trouble, but Gilden can only defend one city at a time.
I'll use the wolf riders to fork the two cities and hit whichever one he's not at. I'll use the melee stack to either choke or finish the other city. I think Gilden is more likely to be at Evermore, it's the more important of the two cities, so the melee stack will approach from that direction.

I have my cities building horsemen, and roads are in place to get them to the front quickly.

There are a lot of flaws with this plan, this is just the current version and I keep changing it. I'm tempted to wait until my new city at the Khazad capital area gets the two gem mines up and running.

[Ellimist]

Some pictures from T87.

Graphs:

Demographics:[SPOILER]

Score:

GNP:

MFG:

Crop Yield:

Power:

[/SPOILER]Cities:

River Heights:[SPOILER]

Innsmouth:

Santa Monica:

Levia Overlook:

Lakeshore Green:

Riverside Rush:

[/SPOILER]Advisors:

Finance:[SPOILER]

Science:

Military:

Top 5 cities:

Religion:

[/SPOILER]Overview of the map:

Main Doviello area:[SPOILER]

Northwest of Ljosalfar:

Southeast of Ljosalfar:

Ljosalfar resources:

Ljosalfar culture:

[/SPOILER]

[Ellimist]

So I have three main options right now.

1. I can initiate the attack immediately and 8 wolf riders can hit Evermore or Hyll on turn 90.
   
2. I can wait for some reinforcements that are on the way, mostly the 3 Hill Giants but also some other units.
   
3. Wait longer to attack or not attack at all.

The main problem with waiting is that Mist has a head start over me on tech and he's not far away from some major defensive improvements. He's probably researching either Way of the Forests or Arete right now, and I want to at least try to hit him before he gets Bambur or his world spell.

Right now my first inclination is to wait for the three giants to join the melee stack. I'm also thinking I'll reposition the melee stack further north so that it's not irrevocably committed to Evermore. I'm pretty sure I won't be able to take whatever city Gilden is defending, and it's more likely to be Evermore than Hyll. I hope to do a lot of damage, hopefully raze one of the cities and the tile improvements.

I didn't put a choke on him earlier because I needed him to advance his score in order to increase my own. For awhile he barely let it move at all, but lately Mist has increased his score enough that I can get some techs. I've done my best so far to get Mist to be complacent. I haven't shown him very many units and I only started significantly increasing my power graph recently.

The thing about this attack is, even if it doesn't succeed, I'm not in terrible shape. I have total control over the map, and the only thing that's been slowing me down has been a need to keep my score down to maintain it.

If this attack fails, I'll go for education(apprenticeship) and aristocracy. As you can see from my finance screen, losing units would improve things considerably for me. I'm actually pulling in a lot more commerce than Mist is, but my costs are a lot higher. Riverside rush will add two gem mines, and I have some workers en route to it that will cost less in upkeep once they are within my borders.

[Ellimist]

Turn 88 played.

I moved the melee stack further north and repositioned workers to replace the roads I'm about to use(barbarians keep pillaging pieces.)

Right now I'm set for an attack arriving(at the cities) on T92 by wolf rider, with the melee stack arriving at T94. The 3 giants can't arrive until T95 so I may delay the whole thing by one more turn.

Right now the plan is to do what I probably should have done earlier. I plan to hit him hard and mess up infrastructure and hopefully raze a city. Losing either one will hurt, Evermore is most important but Hyll is the RoK holy city. I don't think I'll be able to kill him until I get either collateral or blur, but hopefully I can set him back pretty far and keep the pressure on.

[Ellimist]

I ran a couple of sims last night based on very vague data.

According to informal chats I had with Mist during the blitzing, Gilden is loaded up on first strikes and backed up with other archers. He's had him long enough that the Hero promotion alone would allow him to fully promote up the drill line. I've also seen masses of barbarians marching into his borders. My forces have a very very low chance of beating Gilden if he defends a city. It wouldn't be worthwhile to try, probably not even if I wait to bombard down the defenses with the giants, but even that would likely be too little.

Right now I'm hoping Gilden is in Hyll. I can't attack Hyll without either crossing a river or waiting a turn, so Evermore has more vulnerable terrain. Evermore(with 3 dye and a great artist) is also the more valuable of the two cities, but Hyll is more exposed to barbarian attacks. I really have no way to know which city Gilden is at yet.

The question, I guess, is (a) whether it's worth attaking at all and, (b) if it is, is it worth spending 480 gold for wolf riders or better to hire less or zero.
At the moment I think it is worthwhile to attack. I can hopefully raze a city and pillage the key improvements of Mist's other city. If I am able to raze Hyll, I will be able to sit my melee stack on his (pillaged) dye tiles and deprive him of commerce while defending across the river. If I am able to raze Evermore, Hyll is more forested and less vulnerable to pillaging, but really only has 2 commerce tiles, both vulnerable to pillaging.

If I raze either city (and I don't expect Mist to add a third city anytime soon,) it will probably lower Mist's score enough that I lose barbarian peace. If that happens, I'll go for all out expansion and defense. City states lowers the marginal cost of additional cities and the map is lush enough to increase the marginal benefit. I have a massive food/production edge on Mist and I should be able to get a decent, if late, snowball rolling. I also have superior map knowledge and know where all the remaining epic dungeons(and Orthus) are.

One idea is to move the melee in toward Hyll while holding the mounted units back and waiting to hire the wolf riders. Hopefully Mist would shift defenses toward defending Hyll, and I could hit Evermore before he realized what was happening. The giants have sentry so I can wait to hire the wolf riders until I see what units are defending and can figure out how many I actually need.

I'm coming to the conclusion that I need to get certain techs to have a shot. If I can keep Mist from expanding beyond these cities, I see Cultists being very strong against him. They have water walking so they can sit on his lake tiles and cast tsunami to wreck his units and his tile improvements. It might be tough to play catch up if it comes to that, but I feel more and more like I've seriously miscalculated my odds to win using my strategy so far. Playing 50 turns in quick succession without taking the time to reflect between them was probably not the best way to adapt to circumstances as they developed.

It's been a slow day at work and this post has gotten a lot longer than I intended, but I needed to get some of my vague plans into writing.

[Ellimist]

So have I pretty much answered everything? I realize Mist hasn't posted in several days so let me know if there's something you guys want reported or clarified.

[Ellimist]

[SIZE="6"]Operation Bait & Switch[/SIZE]

3. By holding out advantages to him, he can cause the enemy to approach of his own accord; or, by inflicting damage, he can make it impossible for the enemy to draw near.
4. If the enemy is taking his ease, he can harass him; if well supplied with food, he can starve him out; if quietly encamped, he can force him to move.
5. Appear at points which the enemy must hasten to defend; march swiftly to places where you are not expected.
6. An army may march great distances without distress, if it marches through country where the enemy is not.
7. You can be sure of succeeding in your attacks if you only attack places which are undefended.You can ensure the safety of your defense if you only hold positions that cannot be attacked.
8. Hence that general is skillful in attack whose opponent does not know what to defend; and he is skillful in defense whose opponent does not know what to attack.
9. O divine art of subtlety and secrecy! Through you we learn to be invisible, through you inaudible; and hence we can hold the enemy's fate in our hands.
10. You may advance and be absolutely irresistible, if you make for the enemy's weak points; you may retire and be safe from pursuit if your movements are more rapid than those of the enemy.
11. If we wish to fight, the enemy can be forced to an engagement even though he be sheltered behind a high rampart and a deep ditch. All we need do is attack some other place that he will be obliged to relieve.
12. If we do not wish to fight, we can prevent the enemy from engaging us even though the lines of our encampment be merely traced out on the ground. All we need do is to throw something odd and unaccountable in his way.
13. By discovering the enemy's dispositions and remaining invisible ourselves, we can keep our forces concentrated, while the enemy's must be divided.
14. We can form a single united body, while the enemy must split up into fractions. Hence there will be a whole pitted against separate parts of a whole, which means that we shall be many to the enemy's few.
15. And if we are able thus to attack an inferior force with a superior one, our opponents will be in dire straits.
16. The spot where we intend to fight must not be made known; for then the enemy will have to prepare against a possible attack at several different points; and his forces being thus distributed in many directions, the numbers we shall have to face at any given point will be proportionately few.
17. For should the enemy strengthen his van, he will weaken his rear; should he strengthen his rear, he will weaken his van; should he strengthen his left, he will weaken his right; should he strengthen his right, he will weaken his left. If he sends reinforcements everywhere, he will everywhere be weak.
18. Numerical weakness comes from having to prepare against possible attacks; numerical strength, from compelling our adversary to make these preparations against us.
19. Knowing the place and the time of the coming battle, we may concentrate from the greatest distances in order to fight.
20. But if neither time nor place be known, then the left wing will be impotent to succor the right, the right equally impotent to succor the left, the van unable to relieve the rear, or the rear to support the van. How much more so if the furthest portions of the army are anything under a hundred LI apart, and even the nearest are separated by several LI!

With this in mind, the current plan is a melee feint, with giants.

The basic plan is to threaten Hyll so badly that Mist pulls defenses from Evermore toward it. As Mist only has two cities and Hyll is the RoK holy city, Mist may reduce Evermore's defenses in order to protect it. If Gilden is at Evermore, Mist will (I hope) realize that he will lose Hyll unless Gilden defends it.

At which point, my mounted units, which he (probably) doesn't know I have, can appear out of nowhere and attack Evermore the following turn.

Map:

There are four main parts of this plan.

Lucian(Combat 2, shock)
Jackman(Combat 5, shock two Son of Asena)
Wolfpack(Combat 3)
3 Hill Giants(Sentry)
5 Sons of Asena(Combat 1)

At least 5 workers.
Two sets of 2 workers for road crew and one sitting on the goblin fort.

At least two Horsemen. More are being built by my cities and can arrive quite quickly.

To be hired as needed. I can afford up to 8.

At the earliest, this plan can be initiated on Turn 91. It would proceed as follows:

T91 Melee stack waits on A
T91- Two workers move to B
T92- Workers build a road on B
T92- Melee stack moves to C
T93- Melee stack moves to D
T94- Melee stack moves to E
T95- Hyll can be attacked

T0- 2+ Horsemen wait on A.
T0- 2 Workers wait on A.
T0- A Worker waits on F.
T0- Some other workers are in the area just in case barbarians pillage critical roads(again.)
T1- A giant or wolf pack gets visibility Evermore.
T1- The Worker at F hires as many wolf riders as are expected to be necessary to capture Evermore.
T1- The 2 workers at A build a road on C.
T1- The wolf riders and horsemen advance to D.
T2- Evermore can be attacked. Or even Hyll if I'm willing to cross the river.

To get visibility on Evermore, I can move a wolf pack to I, or a Giant to G or one north of G. I plan to give him time to react by reinforcing Hyll before I take a peek at Evermore. I am not sure what turn would be optimal for this, I don't want Mist to think Evermore is threatened.

The alternate plan is that if Mist doesn't reinforce Hyll with Gilden, I can probably raze it without hiring any wolf packs. This is also great for me and saves me up to 480 gold so I'm okay with that too.

[Ellimist]

Turn 90 played. I've modified the plan a bit more so that my forces appear from a position further north. I don't want there to be any doubt that Hyll is the target.
Current plan:

Assorted other images below, sorry there's no fancy editing today.

First, the demographics.

The numbers here are less important than the trends, so I've included some of the more relevant graphs as well.

Power graph is looking favorable:

GNP graph may give him a little warning if he knows what to look for. I had put my forces at Lakeshore Green to save on upkeep, and the graph shows pretty clearly when they left my territory.

My domestic advisor shows mounted reinforcements being built:

Top 5 cities shows that Hyll is actually larger than Evermore now. Hopefully that means it's worth defending.

Oh, and as an aside, if the paring mod wants to add "no unit upkeep costs" to the Doviello, I think that would go a long way toward making them more playable. I'll put my finance advisor up when I move into enemy territory, I wouldn't be surprised if I go negative at 100% gold.

[Ellimist]

OMG I've been missing something major!

That last plan? To threaten Hyll but raze Evermore? It's garbage, throw it out the window. It has a gigantic flaw that I should have seen earlier...

Here's why:

[SIZE="6"]Hyll is a much better target than Evermore.[/SIZE]

Yep, it just hit me. My hint was the top 5 cities screen. After I posted it, I wondered why he would grow Hyll bigger than Evermore? He's been suppressing his score, which would partially explain why Evermore is smaller, but why is Hyll bigger? It's simply a better city.

I'll elaborate more when I'm not at work, but you can see the resources distribution in some of my earlier screenshots, plus there are other factors that also indicate Hyll is the better target.

[Ellimist]

Mist gains visibility on my forces this turn.

I guess I'm okay with attacking either city, but I'd rather avoid having to hire the wolf riders if I can. 480 gold is a heck of a lot to spend for something that I don't expect to win the game with. The odds are nearly 100% that Gilden will defend one of the cities, and my odds of taking the city he is in are pretty much nil no matter what I can throw at it.

I have more horsemen on the way(see last turn's domestic advisor). If necessary I'll plop the stack down next to a city and start taking it down slowly, wait for Mist to reinforce it, then move the mounted units into striking distance against (hopefully) a 1-2 defenders.

My melee stack will move NW-NW next turn, 2 spaces from Hyll or three from Evermore. I contemplated whether I should build the road NW of my melee stack this turn or next turn. I went ahead and did it, I don't think Mist will be able to capture them this turn and I might find another use for those workers. I didn't really have a great way to feint at Evermore without massive delays or allowing him to see my mounted units, so I used the workers I had in the area that weren't needed. During our 2 blitz sessions, we chatted casually and I talked with Mist a bit about his Mahala game, so he knows I know about the upgraded worker rush thing. 6 workers could become 6 SoA for 60 gold each so it might be enough to bluff him. If the bluff doesn't work, I could always make it real :) .

I upgraded the names of the three stooges to a more destructive set of stooges and named all of the Sons of Asena after cinematic badasses. At the time I couldn't think up a great naming scheme for workers. In hindsight I should have given actors names to the southern stack of 6 workers names to lend credibility to the threat.

I think I'll definitely need shadow mana and/or collateral to ultimately beat him, probably cultists. So I'll just aim to take him down to one city and choke the hell out of it. Hopefully it's better late than never for a choke. Luckily, I think Mist is a long way from Way of Forests because he doesn't even have hunting yet, or if he does he hasn't improved his Ivory outside Hyll. I got visibility on the tile(accidentally, because I also became visible to it) when I founded Riverside Rush and it still isn't improved.