The Dark arts - C&D Master Thread

[kjn]

Did a full tile-swapping check on T10 now, while taking Pling's screen shots.

GNP:

16: 9 (8 at 16 or better)
17: 6 (5 at 17 or better)
18: 5 (4 at 18 or better)
19: 4 (3 at 19 or better)
20: 2 (1 at 20)

Production:

2: 9 (8 at 2 or better)
3: 6 (5 at 3 or better)
4: 3 (2 at 4)

Food:

3: 9 (8 at 3 or better)
5: 8 (7 at 5 or better)
6: 4 (3 at 6 or better)

Putting it all together:

GNP
16: 3
17: 1
18: 1
19: 2
20: 1

Production (total 23)
2: 3
3: 3
4: 2

Food (total probably 44-45)
3: 1
4: 0
5: 4
6-8: 3

GNP has increased since more Civs are researching discounted techs. Production is interesting, at a guess it's Univers that has picked up a 2F1H tile instead of a 3F tile. Might be that they're building a worker now using 8 foodhammers (including the EXP worker bonus).

ETA: This also means that it was WPC that could pick up a 3F1C tile with their second citizen.

[kjn]

A comment on the land numbers in the index & summary thread.

CFC and Spanish had all land in their inner BFC. One of them (not both) has a lake tile in their outer BFC.

Everyone else has a lake tile in their inner BFC (like us).

[pling]

Ta, fixed

(And fixed a formatting error that cut out several sentences that I introduced earlier )

[kjn]

I'm away from home, so can't do any full analysis until tomorrow. However, the following might be of interest:

Rival worst in food has dropped to 2, and rival top in mfg has increased to 5. It might be one of the teams crash-building a warrior.

If my earlier guess on circa 13 tiles distance between the starts on the diagonals is true, this would fit nicely with that, if one team sent their warrior straight out.

[kjn]

Who can notice that we lost our warrior?

Assuming the other teams keep the same eye on the demos as we do, then they'll notice the 250 drop in average power.

Apolyton will see that top rival drops from 8000 to 7000. Since they know we were rival best earlier, it's easy to deduce that we lost our warrior.

WePlayCiv will notice that they used to be #3 in power, but now are #2. Thus, they should be able to deduce that either we or Apolyton lost a warrior.

The rest of the teams will only note a 250 drop in averages, and will have several different candidates on which team that lost their warrior.

[kjn]

T11 - 3560 BC

Demos:

Several noteworthy changes. Top GNP is 21, top mfg is 5, and worst food is 2. Some team is crash-building something, most likely a warrior. This leads us to a tile-swapping check, to make an educated guess on who's crashing their food.

GNP:

16: 9 (8 at 16 or better)
17: 6 (5 at 17 or better)
18: 5 (4 at 18 or better)
19: 4 (3 at 19 or better)
20: 3 (2 at 20 or better)
21: 2 (1 at 21)

Production:

2: 9 (8 at 2 or better)
3: 6 (5 at 3 or better)
4: 3 (2 at 4 or 5)

Food:

5: 8 (7 at 5 or better)
6: 4 (3 at 6 or better)

Putting it all together:

GNP
16: 3
17: 1
18: 1
19: 1 (was 2 T10)
20: 1
21: 1 (was 0 T10)

Production (total 24)
2: 3
3: 3
4: 1 (was 2 T10)
5: 1 (was 0 T10)

Food (total probably 43-44)
2: 1 (was @3 T10)
4: 0
5: 4
6-8: 3

Top GNP might be CivFr picking up a single-discounted tech, and going back to the 3F1C tile, but then worst production would be 1, not 2. Instead it is one of the teams with 19 GNP that has increased theirs to 21. The only available double-discounted techs are AH, Pottery, and Masonry.

• Pottery: the only team with Agriculture and Fishing lacks The Wheel.
  
• AH: WPC, the Spanish, Apolyton, and the Germans have all researched both Hunting and Agriculture. Of these, Apolyton is probably already researching AH. We know the Spanish have access to 3F1C tiles.
  
• Masonry: CivFr and CFC both have Mining and Mysticism, and we know both teams have access to 3F1C tiles.
  

We know it isn't CivFr, since otherwise worst mfg would be 1. It might be WPC that has picked up AH a turn late. I doubt the Spanish would switch from BW. Frankly, I'm mystified by this switch.

The mfg/food switch is even more interesting, going from 3 to 2 in food, and from 4 to 5 in mfg. The most likely explanation is a team with a PH citytile that works a FPH. I had guessed the Germans had been top mfg at 4 for a while, and it might be that they are threatened by a warrior. The good news for them is that they can have a 3-turn warrior, the bad news is that they delay their development quite a bit, especially if their corn isn't improved on T15.

The following teams are likely to have built workers this turn:

Apolyton, the Germans, CivFr, and CivPlayers. We will have to look for food spikes on T15 and T16 from these teams.

[Sullla]

Wouldn't food spikes have to be T16? Even if these teams improved a deer tile first, they will lose a turn moving onto the forested tile, then 4t to improve tile, finishing the same turn as an improved farm on T16. I guess someone could have an unforested deer, but I assumed we would all be in the same boat.

Are we putting anyone on Animal Husbandry tech first? I suppose if that's the case, they could improve cows first in 4t. I don't think we have anyone pegged for that, however.

[kjn]

One or more teams might be able to improve their grain T11 to 15, if they settled next to it. CivFr is likely fo that.

[kjn]

T12 - 3520 BC

Demos:

The 2F5H team is back to a more sensible configuration: 5F2H or maybe 5F3H. Given the lateness with which WPC and the Germans ended their turns, it might be a case of WPC finding the German borders, followed by some tense negotiations. It wouldn't surprise me if the German team changed their tile assignments right before ending turn, either.

Two teams discovered techs this turn: CivPlayers and Univers. Since no team had a power increase, and that it took them eleven turns to discover it, it pretty much has to be Agriculture for both teams.

In unit news, the Spanish and CFC should have their workers out now, and I'm pretty sure Univers is building a worker right now, at 8hpt. It is also possible that another team lost a warrior to a barb at the same time Univers built a second warrior, but we'll have to watch the pop increases.

[kjn]

T12 tile-swapping indicates no GNP changes after CivPlayers ended their turn, ie they've continued on with an undiscounted tech.

That would also indicate that they don't have a cow within their BFC.

Univers has ended turn right now, and tile-swapping indicates they've shifted from GNP 16 to GNP 20. This indicates that they've started researching Animal Husbandry. Given a constant research rate, they should get it T25 or so (13t).