WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[uberfish]

Hey Catwalk have you decided to abandon novice and ally with me instead for some reason?

[Meiz]

@Gaspar #1387 (Catwalk)

Fork Fork Fork!

[Catwalk]

Collected thoughts:


Catwalk, just for what its worth - Meiz's insights aren't suddenly more valuable than they were before just because he's post restricted. I get trying to help him out but some of the time spent on building the English to Martian dictionary for him probably could be better spent on other stuff. Meiz is a bright guy, he'll find a way to communicate with him.

I know, and my inquiries are not piggybacking this time. I just find the posting restrictions hilarious, and I wanted to help out. Communications have indeed been established now, and he seems to be able to contribute just fine. I actually don't agree with his reads much.

TT, you're amazing.

The bolded point seems particularly bizarre to me. Everyone's already assuming I'm innocent, and forming their conceptions around that assumption. So how would confirming my innocence enlighten us?

He's convinced you're scum ("I think lynching novice is the way forward and it would need a lot to change my mind."), so proving you innocent would enlighten him I guess. I agree it's bizarre, but I can't figure out if it's genuinely bizarre or a wolf ploy to obvious enough to go under the radar.

Mattimeo, as mentioned above I really like the posting restrictions. I made a post earlier comparing novice with a 5 year old wielding a glue stick and a pair of scissors, and now Gaspar has put a mental image in my head of an alien Meiz with antenna on his head and a Martian to English dictionary which only contains 3 words. If I was scum, would there be any benefit to drawing attention to myself? I'm not scum, so I generally don't pay too much attention to when I'm saying something everybody thinks sounds scummy. If I ever start appearing calculated and smooth you should probably hang me

uberfish, I'm neither abandoning novice nor allying with you. I do intend to think a bit more for myself today though, and your theory aligns well with the one I put forth earlier. So no worries, your back is safe.

Meiz, roger that!

[pindicator]

@pindi. Inwas on uberfish As stated, didn't want a completely useless vote, so picked candidate who was gathering votes and I could see as wolf. I jumped back on the uberfish flash train ASAP.

I guess I didn't ask the question I really meant - what I meant was why did you say you were convinced by me. http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post294904
What made you change your mind, since you had been voting for me and not trusting me earlier in the day.

And from the rest of your post I see you're back to not trusting me:

@uber:
Before the night kill, I went right back to this flash train. I was thinking it was a bunch of opportune voters, but it wasn't. It was the same people (Tt, azza, bigger, me) who started on über, joined by+ Serdoa and Tasunke. But I didnt suspect them because as uber has stated - wolves didn't need a reason to jump to save villager sareln. But now with the vote tally, I see it was 5-5 at the time. PIndicator also needed saving?

So, if Serdoa doesn't die and flip village i suspect him and tasunke of possibly trying to save pindicator, but that's not really useful now that Serdoa is dead and we don't know pindicators status.

I also didn't suspect the guys who did what I did ( jumping off über and then back on). That seemed hypocritical. But If you are innocent, it's possible there are scum there too.

I have a different tinfoil theory about the flash wagon on you, but need to review the logs again.

And not trusting me even more now with the tinfoil hat theory: http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post295699

So, were you convinced by me or not? If you were convinced by me, why are you throwing dirt towards me again now? If you weren't, why did you not vote to lynch me last night?

[waterbat]

While I could agree that WW16 Waterbat does seem similar to WW15 Waterbat, that could just be his style.

I will take that as a compliment. I tried hard to maintain consistent style last game. Yes, the content was crazy, but style was consistent. I tend to post (and play civ) from the hip. It is the semi-anonymous internet with little repercussions after all. But I am heavily invested in these games regardless of alignment - and often I do regret how scummy i sounded (if wolf OR villager).

In this case - I'll say it again without regrets- there are sooooo many people left alive. 21 ! the whole game last time was 21.

@Meiz.

please post some numbers along with your size 5 Injera + Waterbat text.

It would be quite low odds for me to roll wolf with injera 3/4 games, - I would calculate it if there wasn't the fact I am innocent this game - so 0% odds.

you use could a smiley for XOR if you meant we were mutually exclusive candidates for mafia. Not sure how I am linked to Injera. I did vote for him a bit back as I just didn't like the content of his posts. The biggest scumminess for that was that I jumped off thestick to do so.

[Ichabod]

I'm not fully caught up, but I was reading the posts by Rowain, revisiting the case made by Gaspar/Novice and I want to add some comments:

1. I think Rowain's play, in hindsight analysis of day 1, points heavily towards Mafia. I think this is the main point of Novice's case and he already pointed out the most of it. Like he said, this particular post by Rowain

IAnd I'm watching Bigger, his posts haven't felt right so far.

Indeed Bigger oh and Rowain

looks very bad, due to sounding like an attemp to divert Novice away from thestick to Bigger (Novice mentions in that post that he would keep at thestick until something better appeared).

I was thinking that the reason why Rowain voted for Bigger was pretty bad and that he only made it after voting. This was his reason:

Its not about reding you Bigger. Its the contains of your posts that I'm voting for you. First your: 'I hopp on the BW started by zak' followed by your: 'Hey Gaspar I might join you on an Injera-BW if one starts'
Both without any reasoning why you find those 2 worth a BW.
In short those 2 points say scum to me no matter who posts them. Happened to be you hence my vote for you.

But he had mentioned it before, even before changing his vote to Bigger and even before Novice made his post about suspecting Bigger. This is very important to notice. Novice talks about Bigger in post 145, while Rowain talks about it in post 112.

2. My impression on day 2 is that Rowain played a very consistent game. He went voting from 1 player to the other and those were the ones that he previously mentioned having suspicions about (Qgqqqqq was just following, I guess, but the others he mentioned, like Merovech and Pindicator).

He also tried to give reasons to his vote, in my opinion. But all the reasons were based on the day 1 voting, who switched from this player to that player. I don't recall him making a case based on certain behaviours (other than the line he used a ton of times "you aren't scum hunting/talking about suspects". Thinking of it, this is pretty interesting, because voting analysis is kind of a hindsight thing, and we didn't have enough info to analyze those votes for good measure yet (due to not knowing the alignment of most of the players, especially Bigger). This is sort of a scumtell in my opinion, becuase it makes it seem like he knew more than the rest of the players.

But I don't think we can say he didn't reason his votes. If anyone remembers, is this style of scumhunting fitting to the villager Rowain MO? A lot of voting analysis? From what I can remember, it is kind of fitting, yes.

---

I guess that my conclusion is that Rowain's play was very consistent. His actions on day 1 followed a line, while his actions on day 2 followed another line. The line from day 1 and day 2 seem different from each other, but inside those days, they were pretty similar. Right now, I'm more leaning to "it was so consistent that this seems like a player who knows too much -> wolf", but it could also mean "a normal villager play that, due to some circumnstances, now seems very suspicious".

Anyway, I wanted to share this before reading the rest of the thread. Waiting to read if Rowain answered to the accusations too.

[waterbat]

x-post with pindicator.

was convinced by some of your comments - I will review them specifically if you want- i dont recall exactly why.

of course - when sareln flipped village - i felt like i could have been duped. so i reset my "Pindicator Threat Level" from 3 to 2. (similar to the defcon scale, 1 is really bad)

as far as the tinfoil hat theory - it made no sense to put both you and uber in a wolf category - so .... i dont know if it impacts the PTL at all. I agree with uber on principle that we should look for individual actions - but that really caught my attention 1-2-3-4-5-6 votes on uber in short order. It makes no sense that motion was intended to take you off the block and no sense that it was intended to save Sareln (duh). so its either a bunch of villagers or an attempt to get uberfish up on the block next to sareln and you.

If anything - it makes me lean less hard toward uberfish - which leaves me swimming in circles again.

[Gaspar]

FWIW, I think uber's point about looking for individual scum actions over dramatic shifts is correct. Generally, unless there's a swing the whole game vote (WW12 had one of these, the last game potentially did) the scum are generally not stupid enough to lay themselves out like that and possibly lose.

However, I will say that if there ever was a time for it this vote had that potential. If mafia loses members on days 1 and 2 that will feel like they're losing. So if one of the 3 main candidates yesterday flips scum, I think we can probably do some retrospective analysis which will give us some very good info. Until such time as one of them are killed or lynched, however, this is probably best filed for the future.

I don't really suspect this info is there on day one, despite knowing the alignments of both candidates. As has been stated, the better place to look on day one voting info is earlier in the day. At the end of the day, wolves would have been in self-preservation mode having outted a baner and watched a wolf go spectacularly up-in-flames, I think that was every man for himself.

[Meiz]

@Gaspar #3

#577

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@waterbat #1056

\/\/ |-| \' ... |? |_| 5 |-| ?

[Ichabod]

Regarding day 2, seeing that Sareln was a villager, I'm leaning to think we had 3 villagers on the block (Pindicator doesn't seem very suspicious, both my votes on Sareln and Pindicator were more self-preservation than anything else).

In that situation, I'd look for players that stayed the whole day on the same target. Moving wouldn't be beneficial to the scum in that situation, why would you bring attention to yourself if a wolf isn't on the line?

Azza and Waterbat come to mind due to their vote parking in Uberfish. COuld be just missing the deadline (Waterbat had that vote that wasn't a vote on Pindicator).

I think Lewwyn stayed in me for much of the day. According to Uberfish analysis froma while ago, it seems that Merovech adn Arromir were parked in Sareln, while Rowain was parked in Pindicator.

From those, I really wish to hear a bit more from Arromir. Gaspar made some good points regarding him and a little more participation would be nice. Any comments you want to share with us, Arromir?

Nice vote analysis uberfish, and it's very readable. Are you going to do the same for D1? Cross referencing might give us something decent to go on. At first glance, there are enough suspicious voters on Sareln that I suspect either Ichabod or pindicator was being protected. I notice you've been cleared, could you go ahead and put me in cyan too?

Meiz, will the number system work?

What are the suspicious votes on Sareln you are talking about? This is the sort of comment that feels bad to me. You have a very meaningful conclusion that Pindicator or me was being protected due to the suspicious votes on Sareln, but you don't explain what are those suspicious votes.

Some examples of suspicious votes would be nice. Especially since, to me, day 2 was about only villagers on the block and most of the end of day moement was made by villagers.