WW 19 Game Thread - Mobster Mayhem - GAME OVER

[Azza]

Fine, lynch me, whatever, at least that way I won't have to read so fucking many posts to try and fucking scum hunt. 1400 posts in under 8 days, it's fucking ridiculous.

[Selrahc]

MJW, that line from Bigger is an Alpha Centauri reference. Legal or not, I don't think that PM was faked. Anyway, one of the town reads I had on Ryan was that I seriously doubted that Bigger would draw a link between himself and Ryan by coaching Ryan as his scum partner in the public thread on day 1 when he could do it in the private thread. And the PM is further evidence that Bigger and Ryan don't have a private thread. Hence Ryan is likely innocent.

What I would have answered, is that I don't think it could have been a slip. A slip does not involve informing the thread about a PM. That is a plan. So either it's a plan, or it's the truth. It almost definitely isn't a slip.

Could it still be a plan with the posted PM? Well, yes. It's quite an easy thing to fake. But I wasn't really sure it was a plan anyway, just something I found interesting and that could bear further discussion, if we're already discussing Ryan. It passed almost unheeded first time around.

For the most part Ryan has alternated between querulous and confused. How hard is that to fake? I'd say pretty hard. But here is the other thing about Ryan. He is brand new. Is it all an act? It would be pretty devious if it was. I could see one of the veteran players doing something like this, and pulling off a grand wolf gambit. Or alternatively, someone with experience on another forum might pull off the newbie routine to try and sneak through. Lewwyn already tried something like this with the Loki account, and I don't think it's entirely outside the spectrum to think it might be tried again.

Ryan is either a completely new player playing a somewhat confused game, or he is a veteran of this forum or another pulling off a masterful piece of gamemanship by manipulating our expectations. In the balance, I would say being a newbie is the more likely solution, particularly when you look at what look like seriously intended posts in the "Werewolf Question" thread external to this game. I've looked back at some of his earlier posts for any hidden feints or objectives, and I'm not really seeing them. Everything seems quite earnest. Except for the Bigger thing. The Bigger thing is a bit of an anomaly.

[Serdoa]

a) why should Ryan do that if Selrahc is villager?
b) if Selrahc is not villager, why are you not voting for him instead?

a) Possibly to try and defend a villager before he dies, make it look like you didn't want a lynch you knew was a mislynch to go through.
b) I'm more certain Ryan is scum than I am about Selrahc. I must be the only one seeing blatant contradictions from post to post with him though, no one else seems to see them.

a) But Azza, on D1, he was not instigating that move away from Selrahc. And he never ever defended Selrahc in any way. And on D2, he again only reacted after others did so before him. And again, without ever in the slighest trying to defend Selrahc.
b) But the whole reason you believe Ryan is scum seems to be the contradiction of his actions between voting Selrahc all day and attacking him, but switching off him at the end of the day. And that makes only sense with both being scum.

Quite honestly, I am wary of Ryan, because he has followed me several times. But thats not enough to vote him.

Also, why this outrage Azza in your last post? I am not voting you and I am not sure if anyone is.

[Qgqqqqq]

Composed after post 1401.
Sorry for not being very active the past two days - I suppose I just wanted a break from ww.
Anyway, I find I agree with Ryan and lewwyn the most today - I've liked Ryan's play since night 2 and think it gives a strong town read.
More importantly however I agree with Ryan's reasoning about past seers/vigs claiming - yes it does create less targets for the watcher, but by forcing them to gll them we're reducing the chance that one of the. power roles gets hit, or that a seer result dies with the scanner. The evil are pretty much forced to kill one of the claimants or otherwise they'll be overwhelmed by coconfirmed,
I find azza a null tell really - though his attack on Ryan just begs to be lynched.
I agree with lewwyn on the] zakalwe case.

[pindicator]

Pindicator, your attack in post 1306 was fair enough since you aren't lying about anything, just giving us your interpretations and thoughts. Lewwyn's attack was much worse, deliberately twisting facts and parroting Uberfish to make me look bad. He said I didn't care which one of the three Ms got lynched, which is provably false. Uberfish retracted that argument, but that didn't stop Lewwyn from trying to perpetuate it. That's why he got my vote instead.

Your attack last night about how I only pick easy targets is terrible. I'm surprised you aren't dropping that. Again, who are the hard targets I should be going after? If there is only one reasonable course of action, then that action can hardly be a scum tell. Lewwyn actually copied you on this one, even if you like his copy better than your original. Lastly, I'm not polling for opinions, I'm giving people a chance to defend and trying to decide if they are scum. For some reason people think that changing your mind is a scum tell. Happened in WW17, too. You can't seriously be weighing evidence and hunting for scum without ever changing your mind.

See also post 1342 which Lewwyn is ignoring.

Post 1342 is practically my point made for me!

If you think Lewwyn is scum then why aren't you campaigning against him? You say you are? I say you are throwing his name out there. There's no going through his posts. There's no active recruiting of other players. There's no passion; your heart's not in it zak and it shows! The village zak i know isn't so afraid to be wrong that he doesn't push people hard.

That's a better way of saying what i meant by only going after soft targets. I guess what is really soft is your approach ; i didnt express it well before.

[Ryan]

Now I dont know what I am supposed to do as town. If I state my thinking. Azza is begging to be lynched the way he argued, the way he was against me, using the i didnt read 200 posts as an excuse and blaming it on us, But I would be letting Selrahc getting away AGAIN. Thats the thing I dont know what I am supposed to do in this scenario as town.

[Ryan]

and @Uberfish Bigger mentioned the PM. I had to defend and show the truth since he mentioned it , when he shouldnt have?

[Serdoa]

More importantly however I agree with Ryan's reasoning about past seers/vigs claiming - yes it does create less targets for the watcher, but by forcing them to gll them we're reducing the chance that one of the. power roles gets hit, or that a seer result dies with the scanner. The evil are pretty much forced to kill one of the claimants or otherwise they'll be overwhelmed by coconfirmed,

I might be misreading something Q, your phone is terrible, but I still don't understand that argument. How do we reduce the chance that one of the power roles get hit if there are more confirmed players? I mean if you have 1 or 3 confirmed villagers, the issue is the same: The scum has to kill you them order to win. If they do not, than we will have tomorrow at least 3 confirmed villagers (even if they hit one of those that could have claimed today, as I assume the seer would have told us had he a guilty result and therefore most probably has scanned another innocent whom I would expect him to pass the board).

And also, if you fear that our power roles are hit, you should realize that for scum there are only 5 players left (if we presume that one of those claiming an item is scum, otherwise it is only 4) that can be our power roles. If two players claim now, thats down to 3. And the one claiming seer might have given hints already as to whom he scanned and probably passed the board. Assume Azza is the scum who claimed an item. He can be almost certain whom he must pickpocket to get the gun in that case. Not good.

Therefore, simply don't claim. Wait till the next day or at least till 10 seconds before night ends.

Btw: My math above is probably even too optimistic but I'd rather not go into detail.

[zakalwe]

There's no passion; your heart's not in it zak and it shows!

Well either I can adjust my play, or you can adjust your expectations. (Or you're scum.) The first one probably isn't going to happen. Look back at the last game, and how everybody wanted to lynch me on day 2. I only got off the hook because Waterbat (who was scum, thankfully) had already poisoned me on day 1. How much passion did you see from me then?

Don't you see the hypocrisy in blaming me both for "leading" a mislynch yesterday, and for not sticking my neck out to push anyone?

[zakalwe]

just looking a little though --- on D1, zak included me and Azza in his post "if we are going to policy lynch someone, i prefer Azza or waterbat". *IF* zak is scum searching for easy targets, I believe he would have jumped on and innocent Azza after the lockpick claim and tasunke's murder. The way i read it, if zak is scum, adds to the likelihood azza is a snitch-mate.

Having been the innocent target of a Zak crusade, I also find it telling that no such crusade has materialized.

So, Waterbat, are you just randomly throwing dirt at me or is there a logic to this? If I'm scum, Azza is my scumbuddy because I haven't crusaded against him. And I haven't crusaded against you, either, so that makes you... what exactly?