Hearthstone

[Ichabod]

When the game draws, both players get a loss, from what I've heard.

[v8mark]

I'm pretty sure a draw is a no result - neither player gets a win or a loss.

[Molach]

Hmmmm.

Normally, one can say 3-3 is average.
Just imagine, two players playing against each other. A wins, then B, then A....
When game 5 ends B collects a 2-3 run, but after that they both get 3-3 runs ad infinitum.

However 12 wins means winning hand withdraws, and does not "give" away 3 losses first.
A gets a 12-0, B got 4 0-3's. 12 wins divided by 5 arena runs < 3 win average.

But if you retire a hand, you would not include it in the count...I suppose?
Say a person made a boring draft, loses 1 match then withdraws. He went 0-1, but this can't/won't/shouldn't be counted as a 0-win run. So it 'gave' a free win to someone, increasing mean wins per run.

I think.

So retiring when behind increases avg wins (for the rest) and retiring when ahead (probably rare, except 12-wins) lessens avg wins. Maybe. But I'd think 12-wins are more common than rage-quitting/retiring, so maybe slightly less than 3, yes. Impossible to calculate, though.

Anyway.
I made a Excel sheet for looking at chance of getting a certain number of wins depending on your win %.


Tables do not consider matchmaking, meeting more difficult decks as you win more. This probably draws odds toward 3 wins.

Win % in an arena run is of course very draft dependant, but you could also view this as what you should expect before going into a draft, given your 'innate' win %.

Formula for 6 wins, as an example: (A10 = 6 and B1 is 0.5)
=BINOMDIST(A10;(A10+3);$B$1;0)*3/(3+A10)
So chance of 6 successes out of 9. Then multiplied by 3/9 because you need to end with a loss.

[Ichabod]

Regarding arena results, I can keep the average of 6/7 wins when I stick to my best classes (which I usually do, now that I'm trying to gain gold). If I go for diversity, that'll most certainly drop.

My best class by far is mage. My worst is warlock.

[sunrise089]

Wish I had known draws were a push rather than a loss. I have Ysera awakens in hand at 3 health versus a 4 health Mage at 9 wins as priest today. Ended up winning despite four (!) turns sitting under 5hp, but in situation would have definitely taken the push had I known about if.

[pindicator]

Regarding arena results, I can keep the average of 6/7 wins when I stick to my best classes (which I usually do, now that I'm trying to gain gold). If I go for diversity, that'll most certainly drop.

My best class by far is mage. My worst is warlock.

My arena win percent was in the upper 60s, but I think I'm the opposite. Warlock is one of my best and mage is one of my worst.

[Dantski]

Regarding arena results, I can keep the average of 6/7 wins when I stick to my best classes (which I usually do, now that I'm trying to gain gold). If I go for diversity, that'll most certainly drop.

My best class by far is mage. My worst is warlock.

My arena win percent was in the upper 60s, but I think I'm the opposite. Warlock is one of my best and mage is one of my worst.

Same except probably a lower win %. I simply cannot get a good mage draft, whereas today I managed a passable zoo draft with warlock, I just made a couple of drafting errors which hurt the deck.

[uberfish]

Druid, mage and rogue are my most played and most consistent classes. I like warlock but it's terribly inconsistent.

[antisocialmunky]

That's ironic as Warlock is the most consistent class due to its ability to out draw everyone else.

[uberfish]

It's not consistent in Arena because 1) there are so many bad warlock cards that you often get stuck with weak minions and 2) damaging your own life leaves you more vulnerable to random burst damage, particularly if you have the bad luck to be matched against hunters.