[SPOILERS] William discovers a source of horse. FDR of Mongolia

[WilliamLP]

Sorry for the AWOL late response, took a bit of a vacation.

No problem at all. Feel free to pop in with thoughts whenever you like. I appreciate you having you here for a fresh perspective, though I'm sure we're going to come down to quite a clash of principles for how we each would like to play this game.

I agree with moving green dot. Now that we're certain of copper, it's really hard not to want to plant right along the border and get those pigs in the first ring as city #3. Chop a barracks and let Darrabod come at us if he wants to. Ample forests to chop out an army of spear + axes and, with culture + defense advantage he can't do anything about it until catapults.

I think this is the crux of it, how we're going to treat this relationship to the north. Grass river pigs are a phenomenal 6/0/1 tile. The main purpose of settling for those pigs in first ring is: to be sure we get them.

In a Bacchus / Gavagai meta, the logic is irrefutable. We know they're going to try and settle with some level of aggression for a border with an advantage (small or large). This, because there is no rational reason otherwise.

However, I have a hard time getting out of my mind that we'd both (us and Darrelabod) be better off if instead we started out settling purely to maximize the growth curve and each didn't have need of extra axes and spears. (And then we could implicitly work together to screw over the guy to the east...)

I think that settling for a city that needs an additional worker improvement before it can start to grow is quite a cost. There are the turns when it could be immediately working an improved food tile but instead it has to work a 3f one only. Then there are the worker turns themselves, including getting there, especially if the improvement is needed on the outer side of the empire. And because of this, there needs to be attention to defending the workers.

Pink Dot.
-With the hill + river this is a strong defense location. Hills visiblity into Darrabod's copper city as well.
-We'd really be cutting off Darrabod with this plant forcing him to take those productive locations to his West.
-We'd also be exposing our underbelly to potential cit#3. With hill visibility just south of purple dot, this can be managed.

That all makes sense. I'm considering a possible border that goes basically on a straight horizontal line, and I really am warming up with that. I.e. he can have the pig (which we're going to have a hard time agreeing on) and the wine which is strictly closer to us (I don't really want to rush the Monarchy path anyway) but in return we push a little bit to our NE and aim for something like a horizontally wide rectangle along the south coast.

Purple Dot
-1E would be my preference.
-I'm basing this on the trade routes with pink + river defense. The shared cow with City#2 isn't a huge deal since it'd have its own cow 1st ring + 2 other foods in second ring. I have a perculiar preference for on-river plants. I just love levees and +2 fresh water really. This would be an extremly strong production city with workshops/watermills everywhere. Heroic Epic?

Now levees are some long term thinking! It's quite literally true that they may not appear until 2015.

I think grass cow vs plains cow is a pretty big deal, for a city without a lot of surplus already. This because the grass one is worth +2 food and the plains is worth +1 food, so in a sense it's about twice as good. Plus growing on the grass cow takes zero worker labor to get started, and the first ring deer is a really big deal too. And border pops are very precious here, especially since I'd like to try and delay Mysticism for a while, so a city that can only get to +3 food without one will be a tough sell.

I agree that control of the sea channel will be massive. However, I don't agree that it should be prioritized over land presence. We need to make a strong push onto the naval area when we're ready and not before. Those whales for example, it'll take a large investment in tech + fishing boat + galley navy + culture to get and maintain that location whereas the gems are far easier to acquire and hold. Most of those seafood resources are 1 tile from our coast and can easily be re-acquired by us unless we're very late and somebody's popped 3rd ring borders onto our landmass.

Normally I'd agree if there weren't just such a massive amount of valuable sea resources. I think quite a lot of them will be in second ring of potential cities on the other side of the channel. The gems will be acquired and held no matter what since there is no contention for them at all that I can tell.

So nothing is diverging yet and I have no specific micro plan, but I'm thinking about city #3 as the spot between blue and green in the big map, where it has food and would try to pop borders quickly with a barracks in order to get the whales quite soon. This, since +1 happiness will really improve everything, as will +2 for the gems. (But that one is easy and doesn't need a special investment or early start.)

Can't say too much on Ichabod's sentiment towards you since it's still spoiler (+he hasn't posted much since his Ozymandias thingy anyway).

There's an interesting asymmetry of information in that he can now read our PB13 thread but I can't read his. (You can but can only hint really.) But, I'm pretty far on the side of thinking that ancient warfare is almost always best avoided, but it needs to be a 2-way street. And hopefully he and Darrell can recognize that I'm more than open to that sort of mutual relationship.

(And, an imaginary statute of limitations on spoilers, I think killing 2ManyKojiros early was the only move in that game, and not an act of warlike aggression for its own sake. And it was bad move to plant it, that perhaps he learned from, because it put us in a lose / lose situation. If we didn't attack it and let him fortify it up and decide the borders, the resulting game would be horrible for us, much worse than one that actually played out. I think the developments in the game support me here. So it was a move that was both worse for us and Ichabod vs if he tried for more reasonable borders. And he had more than enough advantage to choose borders that were just unfair but not _that_ unfair. I think you can make an argument that Ichabod actually had the inherently best starting geographic position of any of the 18 players in that game for both the short and long term.)

What I can say from our mutual PB13 deliberations is that Ichabod is a rational player who will time war things (or attempt to anyway) to his advantage. It's significant that he let us take and keep those on-the-line locations of LaBoheme & Don Giovanni and only attacked when he stood to gain from it.

Yeah, he "let" us keep that border after killing another small phalanx stack.

Of course, I look at this as a reluctance for war which we should exploit. Especially pre-construction. And then there's post-construction where he'll be scared getting flanked to death by our fast moving Keshiks.

Yeah, I agree there are two ways to exploit a reluctance for war for an advantage! I'm not even saying your way is wrong or less of an advantage.

So I'd like to see city #3 as red dot 1NW then pink dot 1W then purple dot 1E for the riverside benefits.

All my dove talk aside, 1NW of my red dot isn't a crazy idea at all.

Before needing to decide, we may be able to see or deduce where Darrellbod's third city is planted (which will be very soon), and see who our other neighbor is and where they are positioned.

We'll need to talk more about the advantages/disadvantages of getting to the coast early. I guess I believe more in power than in tech and land is better for that (unless you plan on using the tech to acquire land). Naval invasions might be a problem but diligence will greatly help in that regard (see Ichabod PB13). I guess that I'd want to have a strong land presense and then follow up with an empire-wide push to getting naval power.

Whatever the balance of power to tech is at various stages of the game, this game does swing it more to the tech side than any other PB that has been seen here to date (I think?) on the basis of huge costs and maintenance.

I'm viewing it (using biased narrative ) as fair land borders and strong sea control vs slightly more than fair land borders and tenuous sea control.

Last point: If we run up to the border with the red-dot, Ichabod would probably see that as a similar play to PB13 where you planted Don & whatever city. He wouldn't necessarily take that as an indication of your future aggression but just your vision of what is fair.

If we're talking about the site 1SE of wines on the hill (6 tiles from our capital, 7 from his, 6 tiles from our settler's spot) that's pretty defensible as a fair drawing of the borders.

A question is if establishing that immediately is worth that it's far from the strongest third city for the growh curve. (For all of food, commerce, production, everything.) It's really not clear to me one way or the other.

Putting the border cities on hills is a pretty big deal for either war or peace time.

[WilliamLP]

Turn 37:




The scout is just moving 1 tile here, to be erring on the side of self-preservation.

But what's this when zooming out in the culture view?




Some kind of teal turquoisey culture tile! The possibilities are that it's a capital (or creative second city) on the green mark, or a second city on the orange mark.

I want to know who it is. So much so that I'm going to have to spend some time in World Builder examining RGB values of the various civs!

[WilliamLP]

Ok, I'm reasonably sure the color is:

Code:

<ColorVal>
    <Type>COLOR_PLAYER_DARK_CYAN</Type>
    <fRed>0.00</fRed>
    <fGreen>0.54</fGreen>
    <fBlue>0.55</fBlue>
    <fAlpha>1.00</fAlpha>
</ColorVal>

Which is Korea, confirmed by trying to create a dark culture tile in WB.

This would mean the player is.... MYKI as DeGualle of Korea (IND, CHA, Myst, Mining). His only showing that I know of has been in AlaePB. And he's _green_. And I don't mean Kuro or Nakor green, we're talking deep Bantams green!

The choice is whether to make contact or not. We have a bit of an advantage knowing who he is while he doesn't know who is west of him. Normally I'd be tempted to keep it a secret but in this case? I'm thinking that he's not a player who is going to think about these things anyway. (I.e. what are traits we have, how to adjust strategy, what is my behavior like from past games.)

My desire to strategize for shoring up a fair border with Darrellbod and expanding straight east into this guy is strengthened.

[WilliamLP]

and i can say everyone got or same start or everyone got 2 food resources, and becasue someone didnt setled in first turn he might just moved scout, and found like i seen in other games a 3-4 food capitol,

This is strictly a myth.

[mackoti]

and i can say everyone got or same start or everyone got 2 food resources, and becasue someone didnt setled in first turn he might just moved scout, and found like i seen in other games a 3-4 food capitol,

This is strictly a myth.

He he he , well you are not the nly one which i was talking about.But you was the main one.

[MindyMcCready]

My desire to strategize for shoring up a fair border with Darrellbod and expanding straight east into this guy is strengthened.

I get that you want a fair border but we're giving up the two food resources on that border. Yes, we moved but we need the appearanace of fair rather than ommnipotent fair.

You refer to the red circle as 'mildly aggressive' but that's our first ring city placement.

And I ask you, if Darrabod settled one tile outside of the 'fair' border would we DOW him? I certainly wouldn't chop out an army for 1-tile outside. I'm almost sure that you wouldn't and I'm 90% sure that Darrabod won't as well.

I consider that your chances of avoiding a mid-game war with Darrabod will be based on our relative power and those grass-riverside pigs will contribute a lot to that. A city on that river is a natural next city for trade route reasons and ultimately very productive. Anyway, here's my suggested dot-map.

[WilliamLP]

I get that you want a fair border but we're giving up the two food resources on that border. Yes, we moved but we need the appearanace of fair rather than ommnipotent fair.

I totally agree on that point. Though, in the right circumstances I think there is value, even looking at it coldly, in a relationship where you really and genuinely do want to help each other. (Epic backstabs out of these situations are the things of legend, but that's another story. ) What makes me think these are the right circumstances is that we have an extremely green player on another potential border, and if we didn't have to worry about this border much we'd be much more free to push and exploit that one. Letting Ichabod and Darrell know that we're deliberately going out of our way to keep things fair could be worth something.

(There are many situations where I'd want to make a play like you want. E.g. if it were Bacchus, or someone else with whom war feels inevitable anyway, or someone who's a much weaker player.)

Also I hate to invoke Krill on you since he's our competition but

plains hill sheep isn't a food resource

. The 3/2/1 tile is good but not worth stressing over at all, it's like a grass farm with +2 hammers. River grass pigs are fantastic though, conceded.

You refer to the red circle as 'mildly aggressive' but that's our first ring city placement.

I think what makes it (gently) aggressive is settling the first two cities in their direction as an obvious land seal play when there's obviously a ton of food everywhere else to grow into.

And I ask you, if Darrabod settled one tile outside of the 'fair' border would we DOW him? I certainly wouldn't chop out an army for 1-tile outside. I'm almost sure that you wouldn't and I'm 90% sure that Darrabod won't as well.

There's some continuum between a "must declare war" move (e.g. my opinion of Ichabod's city plant in PB13) and one that just builds a lot of tension. The kind of border I want is the one where it's not in either person's best interest to attack over it.

Your red dot plant would come with a burden to prove that it's not in their best interest to take it. Which means, it's going to need to be safe from a "rush" of a couple of axes, which they're going to build anyway.

If you ask me, if someone settles a little outside the "fair" border, and it's obviously not their best economic move (except perhaps as a play of long term denial), and I have an axe around anyway that has a good chance of messing up their day, would I attack? That's a "yes". Even if the axe can't wreck them, this kind of plant will encourage more military buildup on both sides.

The real problem for me though is the economic cost. Not that your red dot isn't a good city but that it's not the best for the early curve.




The current site I want is the "#3" location. What I like about it:

- It grows immediately by working cows. Vs needing to improve a tile first. This is like building a settler and planting a city several turns earlier.
- Workers are right there anyway. And they indirectly give it the cow to itself (for a long time) by cottaging the capital. And it can share cottages for micro shuffling to keep them worked. There are no worker turns used only walking without doing anything else.
- Workers and the city itself need absolutely no military protection or concern while growing. If we settle on red "Y" we need to be at least prepared to handle an axe threatening workers and the city from the fog.
- It starts the strategic objective of obtaining a happy resource that may be contested from the other side. Losing the pig means we lose a single +4 food tile, losing the whales to cultural control means we lose +1 pop in the entire empire.
- It allows a base for scouting the sea and making some first contacts for known-tech bonuses and resource trades and IC trade routes later.

My big vision is like a Go game (even though I don't play) where we consciously give up a little area in the "1" region in order to take a lot of area in the "2" region in return.

Anyway, I think I warned you about this going in... I'm going to be quite prejudiced toward playing this game out in Mr. Roger's Neighborhood fashion in the opening turns.

[MindyMcCready]

Ok, let's just concentrate on #3 being south.

If you want the fastest start #3 being 1W gets the already improved cows + already improved sheep + instant trade connection + wet wheat + fresh water bonus (not to mention the late-game levee for + 9H). That city will get out a settler and/or granary in record time and allow you to plant Blue dot with fish in the first ring. The 1W location also shares 4 cottageable location rather than #3's 3-tiles.

Blue dot needs to have culture anyway for the dry rice & deer (supports purple dot) as well as the whales and is a very strong production city for navy production. To me, that blue dot is the key to controlling the straight.

I'd be surprised if your #3 can outperform that.

You are talking about not needing military along the Red dot border but you are creating military need along the south water. In many ways its easier and less costly to protect a city than it is to protect those seafood resources. To keep the whale and fish protected we must attack into an invading galley which means a 2:1 ratio. To protect Red Dot we need 1:1 or less. Volume matters of course, but the point is that we'll need minimal military at City #2 (hill) and given the straight line we can concentrate out military up to defend red dot. In short order, we'll also need real military along those waterway city sites. Beware chariots on a galley.

In other words, Mr. Roger's still has a lock on his front door. :LOL:

[WilliamLP]

Ok, let's just concentrate on #3 being south.

If you want the fastest start #3 being 1W gets the already improved cows + already improved sheep + instant trade connection + wet wheat + fresh water bonus (not to mention the late-game levee for + 9H). That city will get out a settler and/or granary in record time and allow you to plant Blue dot with fish in the first ring. The 1W location also shares 4 cottageable location rather than #3's 3-tiles.

Blue dot needs to have culture anyway for the dry rice & deer (supports purple dot) as well as the whales and is a very strong production city for navy production. To me, that blue dot is the key to controlling the straight.

I'd be surprised if your #3 can outperform that.

Those are good points, it's hard to quantify. No argument that the site you're talking about does grow even faster, having 3 food resources to grow on without a border pop. (I still can't join you using rivers and levees as a real factor, given that more than half the players in PB13 are dead or will die before researching Steam Power! And there's no way this position will ever be health capped with this number and variety of food types and no jungle / fp.)

The two advantages of my marked site are: First, getting the whales sooner for +1 pop cap everywhere and more cultural head start if someone else is in a symmetrical position to the south. And second, it means that city #4, #5, etc. can go in different directions because #3 covers the purposes of marked Green and Blue together, though it indeed doesn't grow as quickly as your site.

The trade route connection is a thing but all this site needs is two worker turns for a road on the cows.

Overall, it's really not a slam dunk. Speed and immediate power above all else for city #3 is pretty defensible.

You are talking about not needing military along the Red dot border but you are creating military need along the south water. In many ways its easier and less costly to protect a city than it is to protect those seafood resources. To keep the whale and fish protected we must attack into an invading galley which means a 2:1 ratio. To protect Red Dot we need 1:1 or less. Volume matters of course, but the point is that we'll need minimal military at City #2 (hill) and given the straight line we can concentrate out military up to defend red dot. In short order, we'll also need real military along those waterway city sites. Beware chariots on a galley.

All good points. I'm taking it for granted that we're going to need a real navy in this game anyway, so it's good to get started early. Because I also want to plant that killer Moai city and claim the absurd number of seafood resources to the southwest!

In other words, Mr. Roger's still has a lock on his front door. :LOL:

But did you know that someone once stole his car, but then felt bad and gave it back the next day after learning it belonged to Mr. Rogers?

[Commodore]

[quote='MindyMcCready' pid='475734' dateline='1398796414']

In other words, Mr. Roger's still has a lock on his front door. :LOL:

But did you know that someone once stole his car, but then felt bad and gave it back the next day after learning it belonged to Mr. Rogers?

I heard the same thing, but it was his wallet...so I'm going to go with "urban legend", just like his SEAL tattoos.