[SPOILERS] Rusten and Hitru laugh off any and all mistakes as bad RNG

[Rusten]

Unfortunately not. Naufragar has 15+ defenders in there so there's not much to do except keep them pinned.




(Old picture, there are more units there now.)
We were forced to DoW on both naufragar and Commodore that turn (182)*, else the galleons would reach Baffords next turn and be waaaaaaay too close for comfort. Commodore could then cancel open borders at some point and threaten our best cities. Currently we have a 1-turn buffer. We don't really have beef with naufragar right now, but he's harboring hostile units so war is inevitable. We've got 4-5 frigates sitting 1SE of Bonehoard to ensure that the galleons are 1 movement point short of safe harbor in Baffords.

To add to Hitru's post on battles: Start of turn 185 had power difference at 1.508 million vs 1.448 while end of turn 186 (last turn) was 1.568 vs 1.376.
We've killed more and we're reinforcing more. We're 50 (and growing) raw hammers ahead with 270 "free" extra hammers per turn from drafting + police state. Unless something very dramatic happens this should be smooth sailing. The Taj is not far away either which means 16 consecutive turns of golden age for even more production. Those two golden ages will take us to steel and military science too.

*Pretty sure Commodore would've declared war T183 in any case.

[thestick]

Is there any land combat, or is all the combat so far naval?

[Rusten]

He did land some muskets next to Umr and ReversePeephole (DZ area), but no siege so he was unable to take the cities. Currently there are 6-7 muskets around Umr, but we have more than enough in the garrison and this turn we can land another 3 knights and 3 muskets with boats and maybe kill off the stack soon.

But it's mainly naval right now. Our approach is to outproduce Commodore in frigates to force him back on the defensive and only then start taking cities. Once we gain complete control of the seas in addition to having much more production it's essentially checkmate.
So far we've killed 17 frigates and lost 12. Our frigate count right now is 35.

[Rusten]

Eliminated 7 of Commodore's 10 muskets that had landed on our island with very few losses (knight, xbow, sword). The remaining 3 will probably retreat into a galleon. Also picked off some more frigates (killed 4 lost 2 IIRC).




It's not gone unnoticed that Commodore is playing very quick turns (12-15 minutes) and has stopped updating his thread. Those factors, combined with losing ground ingame, have us expecting a resignation to come soon. Doesn't look like his heart is in it anymore from our view. 5 turns until the Taj, maybe that will be the catalyst.

[Rusten]

Commodore played another quick turn and left 5 muskets in the open for us to clean up with knights at ~90% win prob. Looking at a 400k power difference soon, and we're almost in position to start taking cities. We're not expecting much resistance as so many of his units were indeed loaded in the galleons. He has unloaded them and moving around in Naufragar territory. His only real target for them is RedDot, but that's on a hill and he has no siege. Even if he somehow gets that city we should capture a dozen in return by then.




He can't draft, so those 12-15 muskets he's lost are not as expendable as ours would be. Seems a little desperate/aimless.
Feels like only a worldwide dogpile on us could make this interesting, but that's not typical of RB.

[Rusten]

We were planning on dropping units next to Marshall next turn, but Garner is almost empty, so chances are we accept the 1-turn delay and go after the easier target first.

[Rusten]

Forgot to take screenshots and I don't want to log in out of turn.

We unloaded a stack next to Marshall this turn. 3 trebs and a combination of swords+muskets -- and expect to take the city next turn as frigates have been bombarding away the defense. Taking Marshall first saves some precious galleon movement points and it looks like Commodore will be able to reinforce Garter a bit anyway. Think Commodore has no more than 6-8 frigates remaining in the area and we'll clear those soon cutting off any future reinforcements. The whole island is ours and then we move on to the next after. Commodore can't keep up with our drafted reinforcements. I talked about how drafting is the key to this map a long time ago, yet noone seems to research nationalism -- it's surprising to me. On a more land-based map drafting often comes at the cost of workshops/farms, but on this map you only draft away coast (useless tile) with the surplus food from seafood. It's incredibly efficient.

This eastern landgrab comes at the cost of Jujyfruits (fishing village to the SW), but we had written off that city a long time ago. For some reason Commodore never sent any units for it despite it being guarded by nothing but 3 archers for a long time, but naufragar unloaded some knights and will claim it this turn. It does hold our only source of silver, but we're getting 2 new sources from Commodore soon. Losing that city makes no difference. We offered naufragar a pre-planned cease fire as Commodore no longer has any galleons nearby, but he rejected (understandably). It did change this conflict to a bloody one though, so no longer showing mercy and started blockading one of his ports.

[Rusten]

Captured Marshall without significant losses. Expect Garter to suffer the same fate within 2-3 turns. No new threats appearing on the map. 500k power difference on end of turn.
Naufragar offered an enforced peace treaty, but surely he must understand that there's no way we can accept that? He just harbored ~30 Malinese units right next to our capital and the same thing can happen again. The only thing we can offer in return is a cease fire (which I did).

Lazy assortment of images:

[Rusten]

Still nothing dangerous to report. Commodore has the stack that unloaded from the galleons outside of RedDot (only 1 treb), but we are more than happy for it to be there considering the most damage he can do is pillage a few workshop tiles and raze a size 2 city with no infrastructure. Meanwhile we conquer his islands. RedDot is on a hill with a castle and something like 20-25 defenders (muskets, longbows and pikes).

Comfortable enough to move in on 2 cities at a time now so Agnew and Garter will both fall in 2 turns. After that things could escalate even further.
Taj finished putting our raw hammers at 900, which is almost 3x the average. It's getting to the point where even a 1v5 should be doable (but I'd rather not find out).




Moved approx 3 knights and 8 muskets onto the stone tile. Can get reinforced by another 5-6 knights next turn. Think we also have ~20 units available to drop next to Agnew next turn.

[Rusten]

Maybe I will find out -- the Celts against the world. Gavagai did DoW, but I think it's too late. He brought only a land stack and didn't make any plays by sea. Either he thought we would see the latter coming, or this is an impromptu response to our GA starting this turn and realizing he needs to make a move. He's got ~10 knights, 10 catas and some variety next to NonFatYogurt. Can't keep this city, but it has a castle* and is on a hill so he still has to work for it. Should be plenty of time to reinforce the other cities on the island, but this will slow down our advance on Commodore, so good news for him I guess.

*Knew this city would be a temptation so the castle was built even before the lighthouse.