[SPOILERS] yuris125 on a Pitboss77 boat

[yuris125]

Received an offer from SD




I may be misinterpreting it and missing a hidden message. But I think he is actually offering money to help me get to frigates (that's what fish + iron signify)

Thing is, I actually may have enough money as it is to complete Chemistry in 3 turns. And I have to wonder if accepting this will come with a caveat later on

Gods, I wish Civ4 allowed to check the in-game situation before making a decision on diplo offers. One thing that's vastly better in Civ5/6

[yuris125]

You know when I spend a long time in-game, I'm about to do something stupid, and the time was spent convincing myself it was a good idea (although part of it is work emails distracting me from what's truly important)

I went ahead and unloaded a stack next to Silver Lake




The city is not takeable right now, it has 2 muskets and 2 crossbows, all with four promos, and it has a castle (which I didn't realise when checking it with a ship selected). I will have to spend a long time bombarding, which will give Scooter time to reinforce. And he has frigates to kill 2 of the galleons, maybe 3 (I didn't know about the privateer to the east)

It may have been a mistake, could've easily being the case of units being on ships and him not knowing where I unload them being more threatening. But on the other hand, losing this stack wouldn't be the end of the world, and the longer Scooter keeps control of all his 36 ciites, the farther ahead he gets. I felt I have to try

Scooter in the meantime is bombarding Nagoya. I only see 2 galleons in range, and should have more than enough defenders. Blockade around it is more of a concern, it is currently shrinking due to poor health, and on the brink of becoming unhappy. In theory I could break the blockade this turn, but it would've almost certainly required me to lose a combat 3 privateer, and I didn't think it was worth it

The 2 galleons are also in range of Satsuma, but that city hasn't been bombarded, and I also made sure it had enough defenders. At least I think it does, maybe Scooter can bring more units from somewhere I don't know about. I know he had a great general, so potentially he could have some fast ships hiding in the fog

I did take SD's money, and it is actually helpful - I had to switch some Wealth builds to Research to complete the tech in 3 turns, and his gold is also helping to pay the maintenance cost of unloading the offensive stack

[T-hawk]

There's a combat simulator for Civ 4 somewhere, Scooter has mentioned other times that he's used it, that could be worth a shot to see what your chances are.

[yuris125]

Yeah I did run the numbers. Without bombarding the defences, they are not good







And of course if Scooters whips a grenadier on his turn, it only gets worse

However my stack is on a hill, so he does have to do something - if I get the time to bombard defences, the city should fall

[yuris125]

I genuinely open the turn with baited breath every day at this stage. What did I miss? What move did Scooter find that I didn't see?

But it seems ok so far

At Silver Lake, as expected, Scooter killed two of my galleons, and whipped a grenadier. I fortify and start bombarding. Fulll bombardment will take 5 turns, we'll see if I can ferry more units over by then

The main theatre




Scooter is blockading Satsuma, which is causing a bit of unhappiness around the empire due to loss of gold. Can be managed with HR. Satsuma itself might starve due to unhealthiness. Or perhaps blockade won't last

I kill the frigate out of the stack at the cost of two privateers. The second combat was a 95% loss, but I can't even complain, I was due some bad luck

The main stack consists of 3 frigates, a SotL, and 2 galleons, and it is now positioned so that it can threaten three super important cities: Kyoto, Satsuma, and Nagoya. Yokohama is less important, but I would also rather not lose it. The forking potential of ships is very real - even more so when typically underdefended core cities are being threatened. There's one more galleon currently 3S1W of Nagoya, which is likely to join the stage next turn

So I whip a musketman in Nagoya and ferry the one I had from earlier to Satsuma. Muskets are generally worse than samurai, but I'd like to have one to feel more comfortable against crossbows. Nagoya has 9 defenders, so cannot be taken this turn, even though it's still feeling the effect of bombardment from before. Scooter has enough frigates to significantly reduce defences at Satsuma, but almost certainly not enough to take it amphibiously

For Kyoto's defence, I move in the two samurai which were waiting to be loaded onto ships, and sail over two more. There's only 6 potential attackers, and its out of range to be bombarded this turn, so 5 defenders should hold this turn

Also pictured, Bing's caravel stack arrives at the scene. I do wonder how much it can accomplish. Obviously it cannot keep up with Scooter's ships, but Scooter may not be able to hold position with them

Now if he's forced to move, and moves to this tile, there's even more danger for me




Parking his fleet on this tile would block the strait for me, and threaten Kagoshima, while keeping pressure on Kyoto / Satsuma / Yokohama (also Suo, but who cares about poor little Suo). To defend against this, I pick up a longbow and two samurai from the NE island (which is not being pressured) - they should arrive next turn

You can also see triremes under construction all over the empire as prebuilds for frigates - I am planning to whip frigates everywhere as soon as Chemistry is in

[yuris125]

I suspected that the flurry of activity in the lurker thread over the last few days was due to SD's deal with me, as well as possibly some deals I don't know about (Bing did gift gold to other players for seemingly no reason in the past, e.g. huge gifts to me in Pitboss 71). I did hesitate before taking the offer from SD. On one hand, it makes sense for him to ensure I also had access to frigates as soon as possible one he had Chemistry. On the other, the amount he sent is huge, way more than necessary, it accelerated my research maybe by a turn, but it did significantly strengthen my position for the remainder of the game if we stop Scooter's runaway victory

In the end, I found it justifiable, since Scooter's smash and grab plays gave the entire world reasons to hate him. It is also worth noting that of the three wars he's currently fighting, two he declared himself (although tbf his attack on me was more of a preemptive strike, I was pretty committed to attacking him a turn later). But ultimately, I saw SD's decision to send me this much as a direct consequence of Scooter's diplo situation of his own making. Also in my mind it was not a gift, more a huge favour which would need to be repaid - even if it wasn't indicated in any way in our diplo

There was also 30gpt Bing was sending to me (that's now cancelled), but no dubious at all in my eyes, he offered the deal to stop me attacking him, and I considered this an adequate payment and didn't attack

So I don't know what the lurkers' view on this in - and, again, I don't know if there are other deals which prompted Scooter's post - but in mind nothing that happened in my diplo dealings was out of line, and only the SD deal was questionable

[T-hawk]

The lurkers are split, which is why there's been so much discussion, there's no consensus either way.

[naufragar]

On one hand, it makes sense for him to ensure I also had access to frigates as soon as possible one he had Chemistry. On the other, the amount he sent is huge, way more than necessary, it accelerated my research maybe by a turn, but it did significantly strengthen my position for the remainder of the game if we stop Scooter's runaway victory

My lurking has been spotty. What were people’s odds of victory before and after the gold gift? This makes it sound like it doesn’t change the odds of you vs. scooter much but does change the odds of you vs the field?

[yuris125]

Yeah it doesn't change much. Scooter made a run to Communism and has 36 cities when everyone else is around 20. However, this being a water map, his military edge right now is not that big, he is miles away from Combustion, and once we get frigates (SD already has them, I'm about to get them), it will even out; arguably, I will have an advantage, as I have easy access to Navigation 1. But he still has a huge production edge thanks to the city count. There was very little chance of him winning the game without a multi-front war he now finds himself in

100gpt from SD helps me get to frigates a turn earlier, and will helps my Military Science research as well, which will more or less negate Scooter's tech edge. But it has no effect whatsoever on his production edge

If we do manage to win the war against Scooter, I see myself favoured against the rest of the field anyway. SD kept up in tech thanks to Pyramids / Representation, but I'm not far from Consitution, have a great scientist, and a great person coming out of Kagoshima who's guaranteed not to be a scientist. So if I'm still in the game after the war with Scooter, I expect to get ahead of the rest of the field with a golden age and a switch to Representation / Mercantilism. The gold from SD doesn't change this too much; in fact, if I aim to pay him back as soon as possible, my repayment will help him keep up with me during peace time

SD and myself are the only players with a chance to win if Scooter loses the war. Bing is very far behind in tech, and Cairo was knocked down to 12 cities by attacks from Scooter and myself, and is very unlikely to keep up

So all in all, the main impact of the deal is me getting to Chemistry a turn sooner, and potentially Military Science a few turns sooner. It looks bad because it is a deal between the only two players who can realistically challenge for the win if Scooter loses this war, and it massively favours one of them (me). But it is justifiable, because Scooter losing the war is an essential condition of this challenge even coming into play, and helping me get to frigates faster increases the chance of that

[Cornflakes]

How far ahead in tech is scooter?

What would you estimate everyone’s chances of victory?