Realms Beyond (NFL) Fantasy Football 2014-15 - A Noble Fight

[Cyneheard]

Well, this'll help my RB situation...some, anyway. Eugh, I feel sad needing to rely on S-Jax.

I hear you. My RB2 slot is just as bad.

[Cheater Hater]

Well, this'll help my RB situation...some, anyway. Eugh, I feel sad needing to rely on S-Jax.

I hear you. My RB2 slot is just as bad.

Doesn't everyone have a bad RB2 slot now that there are only ~10 true single-back systems anymore? (and that might be generous). I mean, I felt like my RB situation was okay--before they all got injured
At least it appears I have enough healthy starters going into the playoffs--pretty much everyone other than Manning has been injured at some point on my team.

I'll be honest, I'm not paying the most attention to my team this year--heck, I accidentally started a defense on bye one of the weeks, even though I had picked up the replacement. I'm surprised that I've been outscored--though most of that deficit appears to have come from Week 10 when scooter almost doubled me, and all the other ups and downs appear to be near-even.

[Kuro]

Well, this'll help my RB situation...some, anyway. Eugh, I feel sad needing to rely on S-Jax.

I hear you. My RB2 slot is just as bad.

Doesn't everyone have a bad RB2 slot now that there are only ~10 true single-back systems anymore? (and that might be generous). I mean, I felt like my RB situation was okay--before they all got injured
At least it appears I have enough healthy starters going into the playoffs--pretty much everyone other than Manning has been injured at some point on my team.

I'll be honest, I'm not paying the most attention to my team this year--heck, I accidentally started a defense on bye one of the weeks, even though I had picked up the replacement. I'm surprised that I've been outscored--though most of that deficit appears to have come from Week 10 when scooter almost doubled me, and all the other ups and downs appear to be near-even.

Well, I had a great RB2 slot...until Bradshaw got injured and Tate suddenly lost his job. TBH it is less the lack of single-back systems and more that I was never able to get a big enough hoard of RBs to survive injuries.

[pindicator]

If anyone needs a top tier WR, I seem to have an excess

[scooter]

If you were rooting for a drama-filled last week, this past week's set of results was excellent. Chaos reigns supreme. Working on a write-up for the finale.

[scooter]

Season Finale Playoff Update

Gaspar dropping 154 points was probably the bomb of the week, because he went from 11th place in the league and probably out to suddenly being in pretty good control of his own destiny, barring weirdness. Gaining a win AND a points padding was nearly as good as two wins for him while being bad for everybody on the bubble. Here's the new current standings

1) Pindicator (10-2) [1200.6]
2) scooter (8-4) [1264.1]
3) sunrise (7-5) [1092]
4) Cheater Hater (7-5) [1033.1]
5) Kuro (6-6) [1143.5]
6) Cyneheard (6-6) [1059.8]
7) NobleHelium (6-6) [1035.8]
8) David Corperial (5-7) [1135.9]
--cutoff--
9) Gaspar (5-7) [1114.7]
10) Dtay (5-7) [1038.7]
11) Twinkletoes (4-8) [1045.3]
12) wetbandit (3-9) [930.3]

Nobody rose or dropped more than 2 places, but some of those 2 place jumps/drops are pretty weighty (Gaspar, Dtay for example). Let's dive into the tangled mess. Note that categories are far less defined than last week - there's a lot of "win and you're in or lose and outscore X by 15" type scenarios, and there's no way I can get into the gory details for all of them. I will a little bit, though.


Already Clinched - Pindicator, scooter, sunrise, Cheater Hater

All 4 could lose 900-4 and still make it in, since 8th place will have a maximum of 6 wins.


Okay Seriously He's In - Kuro

Kuro just needs to finish ahead of 4 people, and Wetbandit/TT are guaranteed. Past that, he has such a large points lead over Dtay that he can't pass him. Here's the only scenario I can see that knocks out Kuro:

1) Loses to Noble
2) Cyneheard beats Cheater Hater
3) David Corperial beats sunrise
4) Gaspar beats wetbandit
5) David Corperial outscores Kuro by 7.7 points or more
6) Gaspar outscores Kuro by 28.9 points or more

6 for 6 is actually enough to KO Kuro . As far as I can tell, anything short of that, he's in. So... Kuro has effectively clinched.


Win And You're In - Cyneheard, Noble

And they really want to win or else things get weird. If they lose, Cyneheard trails DC and Gaspar in the tie-breaker in the event those guys win, and Noble trails Dtay in addition to those two. Noble in particular probably has odds lower than 50% if he loses. Cyneheard is pretty well equipped to survive a loss since it would require a little more to bounce him, but it's not inconceivable to see him losing out.


I Have No Idea - DavidCorperial

Literally anything is possible, and Gaspar's huge points outburst is the biggest reason for that. For example, here's a scenario that isn't insanely far-fetched that sends him packing even with a win:

1) Gaspar's hot team wins and outscores DC by 21.3 or more (outscored him by 53.4 last week)
2) Noble and Cyneheard win
3) #2 implies a Kuro loss, but Kuro remains ahead because DC fails to outscore him by 7.7 points or more

And here's a scenario that gets him in with a loss:

1) Gaspar loses
2) Dtay loses

Anyway, so DC needs to win and hope Gaspar doesn't blow up again.


Gotta Win - Gaspar, Dtay

Gaspar needs a win and hope one of Cyneheard/Noble/DC lose... Or that he really outscores DC. Dtay needs a couple of those guys to lose, and also needs a reasonably good scoring outing. Kicker: both of these guys are playing against the only two eliminated teams, so seeing two wins (and thus, mayhem) is not crazy.


Eliminated - Twinkletoes, Wetbandit

Sorry guys! You do have immense spoiler potential playing against Gaspar and Dtay, though.


Key Game: literally all of them except the scooter/pindicator game matter. And arguably that one matters a teensy bit purely for grudge match purposes . I'll say that Noble/Kuro has the most riding on it, because a Kuro win introduces mayhem, but a Noble win probably just means both of those guys are safe and means Dtay's path to the playoffs is extremely contrived.


Should be a fun week. Good luck everyone.

[pindicator]

Gaspar's second-half-of-the-season run had been awesome to watch. I kind of want to root for the underdog but at the same time I'm not sure I want to face him in the playoffs.

[Kuro]

I'm amused by the bizarre complexity of my clinching/not clinching, gonna be interesting to watch how everything shakes out this week.

Also, anyone wanna do any trading involving Kaep? Be it for another better QB in a package or another position.

[Gaspar]

My team is actually really pretty decent but I absolutely killed myself with some awful start/sit decisions amongst my many WR2s in the middle of the season. IIRC both Marshall and Hilton's biggest games of the season I had them on the bench.

That said, there's also an insane amount of luck here - while playing the Bills D against the Jets is a pretty obvious move, that 154 burger was fueled by 43 points combined from defense and kicker.

My gut feeling is that I still end the season on the outside looking in but I'm glad I was able to string enough Ws together to make the whole regular season interesting for me, especially after last years abomination.

[Kuro]

Probably not winning anyway, 28+ from Tre Mason!, but praise Kenny Stills anyway.