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[SPOILERS] Cornflakes and giraflorens PB49 - any stock traders out there?

My workers and sentry chariot pushed back a lot of fog over the last two turns:

   

Still haven't found the conflict area between FT and Ruff. There is a stack of Incan catapults in Roe but no knights or other hitters. The Incan core and cities to my south have barely any units at all, just what is marked by the signs (plus anything that completed last turn). My southern worker is just entering former-Rome. I know that Ruff razed one of the Roman cities early and then captured at least a couple Roman cities later. So i expect to find another land connection in the south, probably next turn.

   

Ruff appears to have suffered a major defeat. On the one hand this is bad because I need a solid 2v1 to take down FT. On the other hand, maybe this will tempt Fintourist to overextend and push deeper into Ruff's territory giving me a better opening to strike at soft targets along my border.

   

Japanese production capacity has plummeted over the last 10 turns. Incan production has spiked over that same timeframe and this doesn't include the +25% from Police State which doesn't get included in the demographics. Ruff and I still have combined MFG equivalent to FT, but not for long. FT razed and replaced another of Ruff's cities this turn.

   

Here are my invasion tiles in RED and YELLOW and the corresponding staging areas (screenshot taken after the turn roll, I haven't played T160 yet). There are three roads which need to be built on the turn of the attack. I'll disguise those workers staging by roading and chopping the jungle tiles. Red staging will be dispersed across the area so as not to attract attention from an assembled stack. Buy Low has a knights 1-turn from completion and I'll swap back to it T161. Sell High and Technical Analysis both complete knights on EOT161. Risk Management completes a knight T160 which will move east somewhere in the staging area T161. Trailing Stop has been 1-turning knights, this turn I moved one onboard the galley for hiding. T160 I'll move a second onboard. Those will unload into Sell High on T162. The knight out of TS T161 will move east into the staging area. This makes 7 knights for RED. I would like to get 10 into that stack but I don't know how many more I can manage without drawing too much attention. Yellow will be more of a combined stack staged on the YELLOW STAR.

I have kept up the attack on Japan in order to allay Incan suspicion. My main knight stack is on the indicated tile forking the two Japanese cities. I have 5 cats covered by a few 1-movers and several knights 1SW of JS. This turn T160 I'll bombard, I may attack or I may not depending on how many units Commodore leaves behind on defense. Here is a close-up of the battle front:

   

I split my stack this turn in order to fork the two Japanese cities. If Japan had those HA and Catapults thrown away a few turns ago I'd be in trouble. But as-is I should be fine. I get 27% odds on the two Samurai in Basque Redoubt with my top attackers, so I could probably capture that at the cost of 2 knights, hopefully cleaning up with HA. I may get lucky and only lose 1 knight (50/50) or really lucky (6%) and win both knight attacks. If Commodore remains in place and allows me to wipe this stack then I may call off the Incan backstab and push straight on to Iceni Dawn.
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The Japanese forces remained largely as they were pictured last turn. The two samurai between the cities split, one to each, putting 12 total defenders in Jomon Sorrow. The issue with this attack vs. CR is that with more defenders inside I can't guarantee that everything gets hit with Collateral, and at most if I left the defenses at 8% and used 3 catapults I would get 18 collateral hits over 11 units, about 1.5/each. If I take this attack I can't proceed with an attack on Fintourist. So this turn I bombarded all of the defenses away while leaving my two stacks in place.

If Commodore abandons the city, I capture cheap (and probably raze). Then I send my knights south and strike a blow at Inca.
If Commodore tries to hold the city then I have a stronger attack with all 5 catapults available if needed and 0% defenses.
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Commodore left his stack fortified in Jomon Sorrow. I threw everything at it and ...

   

Victory!hammer

Threw in 4 catapults, scored 1 withdraw! Held 1 catapult back since everything had been hit at least once.

C4/shock Knight vs samurai 73% ... died, only 2 hits frown not a great start unfortunately
C2/shock knight vs samurai 68% ... WIN!
C2/shock knight vs samurai 69% ... Loss rant hopefully just getting my losses out of the way early so I can win the rest ...
C3/shock knight vs samurai 69% ... Loss banghead
C3/shock knight vs samurai 76% ... WIN
C3/shock knight vs samurai 86% ... WIN
C4 knight vs samurai 86% ... WIN
C4 knight vs Longbow 89% ... WIN
C3 knight vs Longbow 78% ... WIN
C3 knight vs Longbow 79% ... WIN
C3/formation knight vs War Elephant 95% ... Win, but barely
C2/formation knight vs War Elephant 90% ... Win, but barely
I'm out of Knights now and I had a bunch of 50-65% options. My WE targetting his samurai, my HA targeting his WE, my crossbows targetting his HA. I therefore threw my last catapult in at 42% which predictably died but got in a hit and collateraled everything that remained.  This improved the odds nicely from here on out please
C3 HA vs Samurai 86% ... WIN
C2 crossbow vs HA 84% ... Loss frown
C3 WE vs spear 97& ... WIN
C2 HA vs WE 66% ... WIN
Mop up the redlines survivors, I had 3 hitters to spare. Given the odds I feel like I got a worse than average roll (exacerbated by the fact that the losses were some valuable knights)

Am I the only one who thinks that throwing away these smaller stacks is the wrong move? I'm losing far less than than I'm killing and just keep getting stronger. All this is largely academic though at this point. Fintourist's MGF, power, and GNP are all rising quicker than mine. This has me wondering whether I would have been better off sticking to the "Backstab Fintourist" plan instead of wiping Commodore's stack.Even though I had a successful attack which leaves almost no defenders in the Japanese core I ended up offering peace to Commodore. I'm out of Catapults and will need at least 3 turns to heal up (1 turn to move, and 2 turns of healing). 5 turns isn't much longer and will give me a slight window to see if I Fintourist leaves a weakness and allows me to get a couple cheap city razes in. 

   

Fintourist is rival best in all categories. He has about 3.5 civs worth of land compared to my 1.5 (double my land area demo stat), GNP more than double mine, MFG 50% higher (not counting the additional 25% unit production), and food twice mine. The tipping point on my morale and hope turning into despair was Ruff's army evaporating in 2-3 turns when Fintourist attacked. See the power graph from T160 a couple posts up. My sentry chariot and worker didn't find anything of substance defending which would compel FT to keep a large portion of his forces engaged. My sentry will be sweeping back west through former-Khmer to see how heavily Fintourist has buffed those garrisons over the last 5 turns.
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Quote:My sentry will be sweeping back west through former-Khmer to see how heavily Fintourist has buffed those garrisons over the last 5 turns.

rolf rolf rolf rolf rolf rolf rolf

   

FT is still in game so the carnage may increase. I knew this was coming as soon as Japan became a non-power. Honestly I'm surprised that I didn't get hit earlier. With this I formally submit my concession. Congrats on a well played game Fintourist!
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(May 11th, 2020, 10:09)Cornflakes Wrote: Made a mistake and allowed Carthage to occupy the plain hill between the wheats with 2 archers and a warrior. Let's see if I can turn this mistake into a "well orchestrated plan" to get Ras to leave the horses city under-defended shhh Now planning to settle 2S of the PH, 1E of spices.

I think this single mistake ultimately cost me the game. It's sad I didn't capture a screenshot of the move at the time, but here's the best I have from a couple turns earlier ...

   

I had those 3 bowmen fortified on the Carthage copper hill, with the settler nearly completed in Risk Management in this screenshot. About 2 or so turns later (when my settler was in motion), I decided to move 2 of my Bowmen along the RED arrow path to arrive at the plains hill on the same turn as the settler. Unfortunately after making the first move, a Carthage archer appeared on the ORANGE hill blocking my path, and would move SE to block the planned city tile on the plains hill between the wheat. I had nothing that could dislodge an archer, and he had another chariot in support. One of my bowmen was G1 I had another bowman on the way a turn behind the settler. If I had only taken the YELLOW direct route to the plains hill city tile I would have beat the Carthage archer and founded a city which Carthage wouldn't have been able to dislodge. I would have had a hill border city vs. Commodore, and Commodore wouldn't have had a border with Carthage at all. Carthage also would have had to plant 1N of copper and steal the 2nd ring wheat with CRE culture, which I could have prevented hooking, resulting in a much weaker 3rd mainland city.

Others have pointed out a passivity throughout the middle and later game. I'll go back and read my thread from my perspective and see where I may have been able to seize the initiative later on ... but still this early mistake put me on the back foot on my eastern border and I think is the more fundamental reason for my later weakness. Instead of a near-impregnable fortress in the east (at least until Catapults, which Commodore didn't get until late) I ended up with a lightning rod, which served its purpose in allowing me to rally troops but ultimately was indefensible.
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Without really studying this, your comment sounds reasonable. You went for an early attack, and while the war against Ras was reasonably successful, you did not get enough from it so that it would have put you into a winning position. 

Our unsuccessful war with Elkad kind of gave you a second chance for the win and the critique in our thread is mostly related to not capitalizing on that opportunity.

With that being said, please do not take this/my comments in our thread as something mean vs. trying to provide food for thought/improvement! I think you played a very impressive game! Babylon-CHA abuse, capitalizing on our+Elkad's weakness and taking the contested jungle, turning the war against Japan..  nod Those are all plays that have earned at least my respect and should we play another game together I hope you will start far away..
Finished:
PBEM 45G, PB 13, PB 18, PB 38 & PB 49

Top 3 favorite turns: 
#1, #2, #3
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Great thread Cornflakes!

Would your backstab have happened before FT's if you didn't change your mind? To think - Hitru and  I tried to persuade FT it was a bad idea!

I'm not sure I buy "passivity" in your war with Com - you knew you wouldn't win when peace expired so you put defensive measures in place (units in queues to whip) and were resigned to candlesticks being a crumple zone. You may have said something about making Com pay, but we're all allowed a little evil monologue in our own thread!
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