WW35: Not Another TPS Report [Game Thread]

[Jabbz]

Sorry for holding off posting guys. I was testing a theory. I made a big deal about not being willing to defend myself in order to compare posts against me not defending to posts about TT not defending. I haven't done the analysis yet, but I'll be starting that shortly.

I'm doing this primarily because I am out of solid leads. I feel fairly strongly that Qg is scum, but I am having trouble articulating why. The same applies to Zak.

I'll go back and defend myself in the posts I glossed over. I'll also compare responses to people on my lack of defense to TT's. Finally I guess I'll skim the thread against (because really? were up to 1600 damn posts :P) And hope to come up with something good. Barring all that, I'll probably just vote in opposition to Zak and Qg, and hope my gut feeling is right.

[Qgqqqqq]

Fenn's case looks like it's assembled from bits and pieces that have been dropped recently in the thread, and isn't actually founded in a reread, at all.

This, in particular.

Zak, are you more certain on Fenn, or are you just voting him over Jabbz because he has the votes behind him?

[Fenn]

I asked Jkaen about roleclaiming because he had just posted & as one of the people who haven't claimed it would be of interest to him.

I'm willing to claim first if you want.

[zakalwe]

I guess my strongest gut feel is for Jabbz. But Fenn definitely looks like his most likely partner if he has one. So lynching Fenn first could make sense as a safer play, covering more possible scum combos. And if he should flip as town and the game continues, we'll know that it's either you or Jabbz.

But yeah... the latest post by Jabbz is very weak IMO so maybe we shouldn't beat around the bush.

I'd like to hear your claim, Fenn.

[Fenn]

Alright.

I'm a Vengeful Townie. My intent was to get one of Q or myself lynched; if Q gets lynched, great! That's game. If I get lynched I can kill Q right away and hopefully win the game for town, or at least carry us into 3-person Lylo if Q isn't alone.

[zakalwe]

Ok... Thinking out loud here, but maybe we should follow your plan and lynch you, then.

If I'm completely right, we lynch scum today.

If I'm partly right, and Jabbz is scum alone, then we mislynch you, you kill Q, Jabbz kills someone, and the remaining two townies lynch Jabbz.

If you're completely right, we either win or get a 2:1 endgame, like you say.

[Fenn]

Keep in mind, if there are two scum and Q isn't one of them, town loses immediately. I don't think we have two scum left or that Q is town, but we would be taking a risk by lynching me.

[Molach]

And if Zak or Jak is scum with Jabbz or each other we lost.
However the way votes stand everyone should be happy with the outcome.

Which is worrying.

Time for some WIFOM.

"Would a scum make _that_ claim?"

The question is serious, I am pondering it.

As it is, No matter what Jabbz votes Fenn is gonna hang, unless someone plans to change near deadline.

[Molach]

Sorry for giant picture, I've lost the skill of making photos small in my picture-upload-host.

[Qgqqqqq]

Huh, so you were trying to get lynched with that last-night post? That makes...annoyingly good sense. Fuck, now I'm questioning myself.

So, thinking out loud here, your plan works if you're solo or double scum, if I'm solo or double scum, or if Jabbz is solo scum. So if fails if there's two scum out of Jabbz, Jkaen, Zakalwe or Molach.

Hum. If we have two village up for the lynch today, then Zak's play looks a bit less good. I'm still inclined to see him as town, though. Molach I can't see as scum in any scenario, truth be told.

That leaves us with Jkaen and Jabbz as scum, if Fenn is town. I suppose Jkaens more switched-off attitude works today if we've got a town/town lynch a-coming, and Jabbz's impassioned defense disappearing/running out of steam might work there.


@Fenn, do you have any response to my response/defense to your posts last night?

Do you really see me as scum being more likely than Jabbz? More to the point, given that it's only a problem if we've got two scum remaining, do you really see me/someone else as scum being more likely than Jabbz/someone else?

Finally, let's just look at the claims one last time. My claim has a 8/9 chance of getting myself or novice killed, if I'm scum, and a 4/9 chance of getting us both killed. As scum, do you really see me choosing to claim cop, rather than like any other role - all of which would've had 2/3 chance of getting me killed, and wouldn't have endangered novice at all?

Do you see me doing the above as more likely than Jabbz noting that their shot on Matt made it through, and trying to get cred out of an early claim?