[SPOILERS] Magic Science and Mr. Cairo in Pitboss 40

[Mr. Cairo]

I would suggest putting a turn into an axe in Cuzco, in case those Impi go ahead and make a beeling for our cap. It wouldn't take that many turns for them to get into a position to be able to fork Cuzco and Sidon, and I'd like to at least a little prepared for such an eventuality.

[Magic Science]

Turn 55 – 1800 BC

I would suggest putting a turn into an axe in Cuzco, in case those Impi go ahead and make a beeling for our cap. It wouldn't take that many turns for them to get into a position to be able to fork Cuzco and Sidon, and I'd like to at least a little prepared for such an eventuality.

I agree with you that we need to be ready if Superdeath moves his impis to attack Cuzco and Sidon. Cuzco actually has a turn in an archer already (from when it needed to grow for a turn earlier), although in retrospect an axeman would have been a better choice. However, I don’t think that we need to be too afraid of an attack on our backlines immediately.

   
Superdeath’s impis are running away from Hittite! I don’t know why he is doing this. Maybe Axeman One scared him off? Maybe someone is bothering him, or he is bothering someone, on another border? He does know someone else besides us and shallow_thought+Hitru. In any case, this is a great turn of events for us. We may still be able to capture Hittite without having to declare war on Superdeath to do it.

However, I don’t think that we should let down our guard in the area. Impis could still be lurking nearby in the fog. Furthermore, the demographics page now shows that the Rival Best in Power now has even more soldiers: 61000. Axeman Two will still remain by New Hong Kong for a little while, and I still plan to have Archer Two go to New Hong Kong instead of La Venta. We still probably aren’t going to capture Hittite until Turn 65 or so.

   
Meanwhile, Operation Swheat is going well too. There is no sign of any barbarians or Orphans to get in our way. You can see by the sign that I have decided to found La Venta one tile south of the peak. I doubt that the Incan League will last long enough for placing the city one tile further south to pay off very much, if at all, and having it be a tile closer to the rest of our civilization will likely prove helpful for bringing in reinforcements when we are getting eaten.

   
Returning to the western front, Axeman One moved east and confirmed that the other impi is also no longer by Hittite. The southern sign indicates the tile where it probably is. I guess that it could have flawlessly lost to one of the barbarian warriors or boarded a galley, but those things seem unlikely.

Also, there is a horse resource in Wonder Woman’s first ring. I will be hovering over it every turn to see if Superdeath connects it and gains the ability to build chariots. Axeman are going to make up the majority of our military on the western front for the foreseeable future, so we need to be cautious of chariot strikes.

Lastly, RFS-81 founded their third city this turn, so that team isn’t quite as far behind anymore, and I think that shallow_thought+Hitru finished a wonder on the turn roll.

[Magic Science]

Turn 56 – 1760 BC

Here we go again.
   
I thought about this offer for a while, and then I declined it. I think that Superdeath is essentially just looking for a 10-turn NAP to take Hittite without interference, and I don’t think that it is a good idea to give it to him. It may be that we don’t end up interfering very much or very meaningfully in the end, but the threat of us doing something could force Superdeath to play slower and more conservatively. Why should we give him any peace of mind? I would be more willing to give him the NAP if his units posed an immediate threat, but the only unit of his in view was a lone impi by Hittite. The garrison of Hong Kong will be two archers and an axeman by the time anything arrives, so I am not too worried about its safety. Lastly, inflicting a small measure of revenge is nice too.

After denying the peace treaties (he sent a second one for some reason) I moved Axeman One to the forested hill west of Hittite. It offers the best view and the best defense of any tile in the area. He found…
   
THIS! YIKES! The Battle of Hittite is on!

I knew that a large army was out there from the demographics screen, but actually seeing it is another matter. His known army currently contains two axemen and three impis. Besides the basic innate promotions, one axeman has Shock, one impi has Shock, one impi has a promotion waiting to be taken, and the last impi, the slightly wounded one which is somewhere in the fog, has Combat II and Shock.
About that unseen impi, I am considering the possibility that it is sneaking around to launch a surprise attack on us. There are many other things that it could be doing, but I still want to be careful just in case.

About the main force, I don’t think that it changes that much right away. It would probably cost Superdeath multiple units to remove Axeman One from his current position, and I am fine with it if he wants to make that trade, so I don’t think that I will make peace to save him. Also, that force is a little while away from being able to threaten New Hong Kong, so I don’t think that I will make peace to protect the city quite yet. I actually think that the garrison of New Hong Kong may even be able to win against that army, although I will have to try a few battle sims to validate that claim.

In more minor news, Axeman Three now has a promotion available to him. I don’t think that there is a reason to decide on what promotion to use yet, so he will stay unpromoted. Also, shallow_thought+Hitru did NOT finish a wonder. They just gained two more citizens.

[Magic Science]

I want to try to read the tea leaves and figure out what factors make up Superdeath’s 61000 soldiers. Maybe things will go better this time. First, let’s go over what we know for certain.

Population
Six population = 3000

Technology
Hunting = 2000
Mining = 2000
Bronze Working = 8000
The Wheel = 4000

Buildings
Three ikandas = 9000

Units
Two axemen = 12000
Three impis = 12000

Total = 52000

That leaves 9000 soldiers unaccounted for. Superdeath has researched two technologies since I lost track of who was getting what, so some of those soldiers could come from that. I do think that it is fairly likely that he has Animal Husbandry, which would account for 2000 soldiers. It also seems likely that he has some warriors guarding his cities, which could also account for some of those soldiers. I think that the most likely scenario is that two warriors, Animal Husbandry, and either an impi or an axeman account for the missing 9000 soldiers.

In conclusion, although I can’t be sure, I think that we have seen the majority of Superdeath's significant forces. We need to be cautious, but we don’t need to go into a whipping frenzy to produce units to defend ourselves. We can proceed with founding La Venta, and we should be able to found Almaty in the near future as well.

[Mr. Cairo]

Well, superdeath will probably just trade axes to kill ours. Unless we get very lucky, the first C1 axe will hurt ours enough that the Shock Axe can easily kill it. Not a trade I would want to make at this point, but oh well, it's worth it for the information alone really.

He's for sure getting Hittite, and there's no reason to assume he's going to turn that army around afterwards. After promoting to heal up, they'll probably come straight at us.
We may end up having to delay that settler. I'd rather get some units now and delay our 4th city than have to panic-whip in a few turns and watch the Impi go around pillaging. At the very least an axe out of Cuzco wouldn't go amiss.

[Magic Science]

Turn 57 – 1680 BC
   
The first actual combat of the Battle of Hittite occurred this turn; an impi destroyed one of the defending warriors. Sadly, Superdeath did not attack Axeman One like I was hoping he would. Not attacking Axeman One is probably the correct move for him, but I was hoping that he would make a mistake a get a few of his units killed. I expect him to capture the city next turn or the turn after, depending on how cautious he is and what the two impis in the fog do. I don’t expect Axeman One to have a good opportunity to kill any MarvelDC units unless Superdeath is foolish and leaves a wounded unit alone on a tile without one of his axemen defending it.

With that in mind, I decided to go back on my conclusions from last turn and offer Superdeath a peace treaty. As I said above, there is no way that I am going to take Hittite and our chances of killing a MarvelDC unit or even slowing down the conquest seem low. Also, I used Cyneheard’s Combat Calculator to see how an attack on New Hong Kong might go. I think that the defenders would be expected to win, but things seem closer than I thought they would be, so I would like to avoid an attack coming at the city in the first place.

If Superdeath accepts the peace treaty, then I hope to start defusing the situation so that we don’t find ourselves at war again in ten turns. Without Hittite as an item of contention, I think that longer-term peace is achievable, although Almaty, which should be settled on Turn 69, might flare tensions up again.

I’m not sure what will happen if Superdeath does not accept the peace treaty. Probably he marches in to attack and both of us whip more units and fall further behind.

   
On a more positive note, Operation Swheat is still going fine. Worker Two has finished all of the roads that he needs to finish and is going to go to the forest east of La Venta’s future spot to pre-chop it to go into La Venta’s Terrace. Worker Four is on his way and will finish the last piece of necessary road, the one on the desert south of Sidon. Archer Three is about to emerge from Sidon and come south to defend.

Lastly, Charriu+Zalson settled their fourth city this turn, faster than Superdeath despite the fact that he settled his third city five turns before they settled theirs. It turns out that building military units slows you down, who knew. Maybe those two civilizations will swap places when I make a tear list again.

Well, superdeath will probably just trade axes to kill ours. Unless we get very lucky, the first C1 axe will hurt ours enough that the Shock Axe can easily kill it. Not a trade I would want to make at this point, but oh well, it's worth it for the information alone really.

He's for sure getting Hittite, and there's no reason to assume he's going to turn that army around afterwards. After promoting to heal up, they'll probably come straight at us.
We may end up having to delay that settler. I'd rather get some units now and delay our 4th city than have to panic-whip in a few turns and watch the Impi go around pillaging. At the very least an axe out of Cuzco wouldn't go amiss.

Thank you for pitching in with your advice in this troubled time. I share your concerns about the army of the Injustice League continuing on past Hittite to pillage and besiege.

At this point the settler for La Venta is only one turn from completion, so I don’t think that it is worth it to halt production of it to build a military unit. However, Cuzco is going to produce the partially-done archer next, for sure. After that I hope to have it build a settler, but it is quite possible that we will want another axeman instead. Likewise, I hope to have Sidon start another worker next turn, but it may very well go for an axeman too. New Hong Kong is already building an axeman.

I must say, when I joined this game I did not anticipate doing so much fighting so early. I know that I won’t get an answer to this for a while, but I wonder if any other players are fighting? I haven’t seen any score decreases on the wrong turn from others, and me and Superdeath have the second and first largest armies, so probably not.

[Magic Science]

Turn 58 – 1680 BC
   

Hooray! Superdeath sent back a peace treaty offer!   I accept, obviously, and bring the Second War of the Leagues to an end. Now I can go back to peacefully building, although I doubt that we will ever manage to achieve a truly demilitarized border here. I plan to ensure that New Hong Kong and Almaty both have sturdy garrisons, and I still want to try to take revenge someday if I see an opening.

Also, you can see in the background that Superdeath took Hittite, bringing him to four cities, and renamed it “The Flash.” Operation Bronze Age Collapse is officially a failure. Now I will have to try to catch up solely by founding my own cities.

   
On that note, I am thinking about what tile Almaty should go on. It definitely needs to have the fish in its Big Fat Cross, so there are only two viable spots: one tile west of the sheep or two tiles west of the sheep. I had been planning to found Almaty two tiles west of the sheep so that it could use the corn, but the corn is Superdeath’s now, and I don’t think that Almaty could steal it culturally without a lot of investment and a lot of time. Being on a hill would be handy for defense, but the hill spot is closer to Superdeath (a little bit more likely to tick him off and slightly easier for him to see into), so I don’t think that it actually gives that much of a defensive advantage. The new plan is to settle one tile west of the sheep, which also has the benefit of being able to share more tiles with Cuzco.

   
Then there is this area. The city after Almaty is supposed to go over here somewhere, but where exactly to put it is much more up in the air than for Almaty. Part of the reason for that is the amount of unexplored territory over here. Quechua Two is still on his way to deal with that, and he should be able to reveal the relevant tiles before a decision about where to put the city needs to be made. With the information currently available, I am leaning towards founding the city one tile east of the horse. It gets two strong tiles in its first ring, and it eventually will have a rice tile as well.

[Magic Science]

Turn 59 and Turn 60 – 1640 BC and 1600 BC
These two turns were very eventful in regards to foreign civilizations, so let’s get right to it.

   
First, I have located, but not contacted, RFS-81 and haphazard1. You can see a bit of their culture in the southeast. I could send one of La Venta’s garrison units to make contact, but I don’t see any need to meet them immediately, so I am content to wait until La Venta’s borders expand.

Them being there is excellent news for me, I think. They are not expanding very fast, so I think that I stand a good chance of being able to claim the jungle between us. Also, they fulfill an important role in my plan to stave of defeat by becoming the biggest, meanest, minnow. You see, if I am the only minnow around when the sharks get hungry, then I am going to get eaten no matter how tough I am. However, if there are two minnows around, then the hungry sharks should go after the weaker one. RFS-81 and haphazard1 will hopefully be a weaker minnow than me when the time for snacking comes. 

   
Second, there is this. That is a very concerning spike in power from the Unlucky Orphans, especially considering that I am about to settle La Venta right towards them. It will be defended by Axeman Three and Archer Three right away, though. Could they be building a bunch of units just for self-defense? Looking at how our two civilizations ranked relative to one another on the power graph a few turns ago, that is a reasonable motive. Could they be trying to attack the Psychedelic Warlords? They seem to be falling behind in other areas, so maybe they are behind in military too.

   
Thirdly, lastly, and most unfortunately, there is this. Yes, that is SHAKA OF ROME , and he made contact with me as he settled his fifth city very near to Cuzco. Commodore, what gives? At least my earlier prediction of the shape of the map seems to be correct. Coeurva knows Superdeath but not shallow_thought and Hitru.

Plans have changed, and I now want to settle the city in the east before Almaty. I need to quickly establish a border with Coeurva that doesn’t leave Cuzco as a border city. Almaty is not in danger of being settled first by someone else, but the city in the east is. I can have it settled to the east of the horse with two archers and an axeman defending it on Turn 67.

After the eastern city and Almaty are settled, there will be no more room for cities without either Iron Working (to settle the jungle) or Sailing (to settle the island), so I will probably need to go for one or both of those technologies soon. Iron Working will let me settle the cities that are more likely to be contested and will give me access the jungle-covered ivory by New Hong Kong, but I could get intercontinental trade routes from Sailing. I’m not sure which one is best yet. At least I have a few more turns to decide.

Also, someone finally claimed Buddhism this turn. Civstats indicates that Coeurva is that someone, because of course he is. Maybe people will start to build wonders soon too?

[Magic Science]

On Turn 60, I played before shallow_thought and Hitru. On Turn 61 (this turn) I logged in to play my turn and shallow_thought logged in immediately after me. I had not moved any units yet. shallow_thought then settled a city that prevents me from founding La Venta in the place that I wanted to. Because he played after me last turn, that was a double move. If I had gone before shallow_thought and Hitru, like I did last turn, then I would have won the settler race.

Here is a screenshot of the situation after they founded their new city:
   
I think that this requires a reload to Hitru’s 1:18 pm logout save so that shallow_thought and Hitru don’t get a double move on me.
I know that we don’t have a game admin, but what do you general lurkers think?

[Mr. Cairo]

I'm with you in needing a reload, although I think it's fairly safe to say that shallow_thought probably didn't realise he was in a race, since we didn't either. I'm not sure what the usual ruling is when this sort of thing comes up.