WW 19 Game Thread - Mobster Mayhem - GAME OVER

[Lewwyn]

Fine. I won't deprive Uberfish the pleasure of killing me.

Today I turned in my grades for the semester. This has been such a hard week. The last two days I've just been grading, grading, grading to get done on time. I set my clock for 5AM this morning to try and get on before the lynch, but I just couldn't bring myself to get out of bed after 3 hours of sleep. And so waterbat is lynched and I shake my head.

Please lynch Uberfish. I will spend a couple hours this afternoon I think to push some more posts of his to the surface, but in the end I'm a dead man. I grant you all that I am not 100% on Uberfish. I am probably 90%. I'm no sure about my next suspect. But just lynch Uberfish okay?

Can you even tell me why you think Uberfish is innocent Serdoa? And how can you justify Uberfish's nighttime antic last night?

[Serdoa]

Can you even tell me why you think Uberfish is innocent Serdoa? And how can you justify Uberfish's nighttime antic last night?

After the game, ok? I don't want to deliver him the arguments for his innocence (and also I have my lists at work...). If he is innocent, he should work to show us. Thats what actually killed waterbat. If he had just once written "I revealed that you passed me the card because I thought you could be scum and didn't think it through to the end" I would have moved away.

But Lewwyn, while I understand you are set on uberfish, care to give me your thoughts on MJWs and Mattimeos play for last lynch? I mean, that waterbat can't have passed the gas can to novice to have it go somewhere randomly as scum seemed obvious, right?

[Lewwyn]

I've been wandering around all day thinking about this since it happened and I think I had another of those ah ha moments.

Forget Uberfish for a day. Don't lynch him next. Lynch Mattimeo next. If I'm wrong there then lynch Uberfish.

I had it right earlier on Day 2, but I was sort of being sarcastic about it at the time. When Zak made his big 3 M's post he taked about MJW, Matt and Mero. I was pretty much all over Zak then. I was on him Day 1 as well. He knew I was onto him. He knew I was pushing him. What would I do in that situation? I would certainly start accusing my scumbuddies. And I did in fact I did accuse him of it! I was just too focused on Zak that I eventually forgot to be suspicious of Mattimeo. My original response to the 3 M, spoilered for size:

While I suspect Waterbat, I couldn't see at the time see how Waterbat would be implicated by a successful vig kill on Bigger. Tasunke was hinting heavily that he had the gun and would shoot either Azza or Waterbat. So if that kill went through, why would that implicate Waterbat? Of course, maybe Tasunke was in fact jailed, since he wasn't actually the vig, but for anyone believing his claim, that was not a possibility. So I couldn't understand why people were jumping on Waterbat over this. Allegedly it was all due to Waterbat being on Tasunke right before his reveal. That seems more like a convenient excuse. So if Waterbat is innocent, I'll be a little suspicious of Lewwyn for kicking this off, but even more suspicious of Mattimeo for parroting it. And if Waterbat is guilty, then I think Merovech's last post there looks very fishy. That looks like scum instinctively agreeing that his scumbuddy is suspicious, without really weighing the evidence at all.

Merovech

As I was catching up this morning and reading I began to feel that waterbat was innocent before he claimed gascan. He just read more and more like a frustrated villager to me. So at this point I really think Waterbat is innocent and he's just played badly. But hell, I've been fooled by waterbat before. Thing is he just reminds me a lot of WW16 waterbat where he ended up as my lynchbait. I agree that there is a possibility of scum piggybacking me earlier to get at waterbat, but I also think he was suspicious at that point. And it makes sense. Waterbat was playing to be night killed. He was trying to act in a specific manner and ironically it made him seem more suspicious. So my point is that while he reds very villagery now, at that time he was reading scummy or at the least lazy and no read. I do not think Mero is suspicious for that.

Mattimeo hasn't posted enough. He's more suspicous then Mero. Why choose to vote for Mero over Mattimeo?

You can see here I'm asking the right question. Why does Zak vote for Mero over Mattimeo he's more suspicious. Then When Mattimeo quickly picked up on this he asked me why he was suspicious, my response again spoilered for size:

Mattimeo hasn't posted enough. He's more suspicous then Mero. Why choose to vote for Mero over Mattimeo?

If I may ask, what is making you suspicious of me, other than the fact I'm generally sleeping when people decide to add another 5 pages to the thread?

Its the bunny. And the fact that yes you haven't been especially active. And the long post earlier where you went through a bunch of suspects and listed a couple thoughts on each that were not really telling about your position on anyone. Example:

Ryan... while killing him off would make the game significanly easier (and shorter) to read, I don't know that he's doing anything particularly scum-favoured. Unless he's actually completely sane and is just emulating Tasunke for cover tongue

Didn't particularly like uberfish's initial arguments to get the Tasunke train rolling this morning, but they didn't seem excessively out of character, either. Hence why I went after someone who jumped on that wagon for parroting, rather than the initiator of it.

Here are two of your chosen people. Instead of actually telling me what you think about these people it feels like you are simply doing a play by play. Its like you are describing the situation instead of scum hunting. In particular the Uberfish one says you didn't like it but "then its not out of character so oh well". Its so noncommittal.

Add in the fact that your scumbuddy Zak throws the "Three M's" out there and A) casts more aspersions on MJW (but doesn't vote there because he's already pretty town leaning) then B) throws out you his token scum just in case he or you are caught cover either way, and C) Mero his mislynch target.

I bolded the most relevant part here. The problem is that after this, Zak went ahead and said "I like this" and voted for Mattimeo! I, of course, immediately started to doubt my line of thought because I suspected Zak so heavily, anything he liked had to be wrong. But he was fucking with me. Good job Zak.

If it wasn't for Mattimeo voting for waterbat tonight I never would have come back to him. But yeah, why would anyone vote for waterbat who was so clearly innocent? Because he was so clearly innocent. It was a GREAT opportunity for Mattimeo to snipe a less suspicious villager and save the more suspicious ones, a la, Azza and Uberfish for the next two lynches! I mean thats what I would have pushed to happen next!

Mattimeo is super scummy because of that, but he was super scummy before that too. Let's look at the post that I thought was scummy on Day 2 again spoilered:

Btw, you do realize that I'm 100% innocent if Serdoa is innocent, and that Serdoa is quite likely to be innocent? I'd kindly suggest that you focus your efforts on the more likely candidates for now.

Not entirely true. The scum who actually had the card passes it to Serdoa while you claim to have done so. I believe I've outlined this several times (including before it happened, with 'Serdoa' being 'a random villager') as how I'd be progressing from a fake miller claim as scum.
Still think you're overwhelmingly likely to be town, but what happened does actually make perfect sense even if you aren't.

Arguments against Selrahc appear to be a mix of meta-hate and Ryan flailing. Neither of which I consider good reasons to lynch - Ryan's main value appears to be coming up with completely incorrect arguments have having them corrected (which ensures everyone else is on the same page, at minimum), while I personally consider productive meta discussion to actually be quite useful a lot of the time - especially if we know a reasonable amount about the game set-up, like we do here. No real read here.

Waterbat's claimed bomb, which I'm inclined to put in the villager camp for now, if only because it would be fairly pointless on scum - only possible kill it can activate on is the vig-shot, and they're not going to pass it and risk being hit after it's passed further.

Serdoa is fairly safe town. No-one disputed bulletproof, and I *really* can't see scum voluntarily declining a night kill this early. Probably the closest thing we have to 'confirmed town' IMO.

MJW shot someone who was overwhelmingly going to be lynched, meaning we actually had to engage in discussion for the rest fo the day - and he left plenty of time for us to do that discussion in. I'd say this gives him town leanings, though scum opportunisticly taking out a villager could be an explanation. I'd've been more inclined to save it as late as possible and hit town with a day kill they didn't know was coming to win the game / force MyLo a day earlier, were I scum.

Assuming Azza is being truthful, his actions make sense regardless of his faction. Village wants the liar outed, because liars are scum. Scum wants the non-scum liar outed, as he's an extremely easy mis-lynch that should gain you slight town cred.

Ryan... while killing him off would make the game significanly easier (and shorter) to read, I don't know that he's doing anything particularly scum-favoured. Unless he's actually completely sane and is just emulating Tasunke for cover

Didn't particularly like uberfish's initial arguments to get the Tasunke train rolling this morning, but they didn't seem excessively out of character, either. Hence why I went after someone who jumped on that wagon for parroting, rather than the initiator of it.

To be honest, haven't put that much thought into the rest. Anyone comes up with particularly convincing arguments (well, I suppose even remotely convincing would probably do at this stage), give a yell.


For now, Azza. The claim does not actually give any village lean, given Tasunke's flip, and lockpicks seem to be (meta-wise) significantly more useful for scum to start with.

Wonderful post that says absolutely nothing. Reminds me of his posts from when he was on my scum team in whatever # it was. Basically it boils down to this:

His bit about Selrahc is a defense of Selrahc and Selrahc's meta, but then he says no real read here. Don't want to be too definitive!
Waterbat, likely town because of bomb claim. Looks like that town read was easily dismissed.
Serdoa=town. Thanks for that Matt.
MJW could be town leaning, but hey wait could easily be scum too!
Azza could be either!
Ryan has to be town! Unless its an act!
Uberfish could eb anything!
Oh now I'm tired and haven't thought about anyone else in the game. Time to vote Azza!

A pile of nothing beyond a defense of Selrahc and a vote for Azza.

Additionally Day 1 he voted for Rowain (first post) and "misinterpreted" Rowain's reasons. I corrected him and he eventually backed off, but it was still pretty shady.


Today was the kicker though! After reading through the the things from yesterday...

Mattimeo makes a long reasoning post post about all the players left alive:

It does knock you back down to merely "quite likely to be town" from "pretty much garunteed to be town," if that's relevant. Don't know that it is, though.

Who do we have left?
Serdoa - bulletproof tanked a scum shot; town
Lewwyn - uncontested claim of second vig kill; town
(related: have we had someone out an actual claim on the first vig kill yet? I can't recall)

waterbat:
- bomb seems very town
- general interaction with items not so much. Especially the complaining about miller after the seer was lost, indicating the location of the bomb.
- final voting record interesting. Irrelevantly on (scum) zakalwe day 1, irrelevantly on Azza both day 2 and 3 - notably, on day 3 being the only person not being lynched that day who was not on someone we already know to be scum.
Not entirely sure what to make of the voting record, to be honest. Distancing day 1, keeping a low profile the other two? Or just going after who he saw as the most scummy, regardless of the rest of the game?

Azza:
- lockpicks seem slightly scum
- use of lockpicks consistent with both good town play and good scum play
- good voting record - on Selrahc both day 2 and 3. Could just be scum getting annoyed at lurker team-mate though.

MJW:
- box of random leans *very* slightly town
- use of day-vig seems fairly town, but I can see scum arguments for it too.
- another double-Selrahc hitter
- if zak's "three Ms" was meant to involve distancing as well as framing, he's the only candidate left for that.
- I fail at reading randomness even more than I fail reading in general

Qgqqqqq:
- parchment leans slightly town
- use of parchment also leans slightly town, though that's based on even less than these other slight leans I'm pulling from the air
- yet another Selrahc double voter
- ????

uberfish:
- crowbar leans slightly scum
- open claim of it gives less town lean than usual due to Lewwyn beating him to it.
- scum?
- scum

Overall rankings etc:
uberfish > Azza > MJW > waterbat > Qgqqqqq

Apologies for trailing off in quality towards the end, $250 on concert + merch + alcohol (and it was *so* worth it) does not particular engender me towards werewolf after getting home on the last tram.
Will make sure to be around and sober for lynch so I can fix any major fuck-ups. I'm sure I made several.

Also probably tonnes of cross-posting but I cbf.

Now I've bolded this in his post, but I'll reproduce it here as well:

Overall rankings etc:
uberfish > Azza > MJW > waterbat > Qgqqqqq

Look at where waterbat is on that list. Now look at his next post:

Azza: Was attacked on Day 3 by zak and Selrahc. They searched heavily for someone to lynch instead of Selrahc
Mattimeo: Same as Azza.
MJW: Yeah, no. Reading his posts as much as I still disprove the use of the gun on D2, I would consider him village. Too much going against scum when they were flailing already.
Lewwyn: Certain villager
Serdoa: Certain villager
uberfish: Really hard to say. I dislike his playstyle but I don't get the feeling he is scum right now.
Q: I don't see anything in his favor, but I also don't find anything especially bad. He was wrong several times, but it feels like he really tried scumhunting. Might have to reread his posts though.
waterbat: see my case, only one remaining.

waterbat

Are you kidding me? Waterbat jumps to the head of the class because of this run down by Serdoa? There's no handwringing or thought or any reason why he changed his vote! It's not like the forum was jumping with posts and his reasons might get lost. No in fact it was dead quiet. So he just quotes, votes and calls it a day?

Mattimeo's behavior over the last day reminds me of Azza's behavior on the last day of my last fuck up. Be as quiet as possible and let the villagers fuck it up for you. No, I'm not stupid. I'm willing to change my mind and I'm willing to try and change others. If its not Mattimeo its Uberfish, but after going through Mattimeo's posts there's no question in my mind that Mattimeo HAS to be the next one lynched. He's scum, but not only that he's also got the double vote.

MATTIMEO

He was in cahoots with Zak before I killed him.

[Lewwyn]

If anything I think that seals my death. For sure, for sure. But I just didn't want to have another game where I really screwed up. I started looking back at Uberrfish's posts for more scum tells but instead I got this:

Day 1:

...
I find bigger doing absolutely nothing in his last few posts except giving Ryan "friendly" advice to be suspicious. Could well be scum waiting to see where the momentum shifts.

...

BTW I'm also willing to lynch Bigger for the string of do-nothing posts where he talks to Ryan.

This is how I play day 1 now, regardless of alignment :P. Every day 1, unless I start getting lynched for it, then I'll just refuse to make any post on day 1, including votes. so neener.

How about novice passes you the fool card and we lynch you tomorrow?

These are parts of 3 posts that Uberfish made. They came in a string towards the end of the day. I do not believe that that would be the appropriate time to start distancing. Day 1 is hectic and swingy. If Uberfish is scum he's taking WAY unnecessary risks here with his scumbuddy Bigger.

I still think Uber has made some scummy posts, but I can't cherry pick these three out which seem to point the other way.

I haven't seen anything that Mattimeo has done that leans town as much as those. The biggest thing that was keeping me from considering Matt scum was Zak himself. And when your nonscum tell relies on something or someway a scum voted, I think its time to throw that tell away.

So congrats Uber I don't want to lynch you next anymore.

[Lewwyn]

BTW just to add to that, one of the things that sort of held the potency of those bigger posts back before was that Uber never actually voted for Bigger. But then he never changed his vote at all on Day 1 either.

[Serdoa]

I knew someone would finally start to dig through that thread and it would not be only me.

And yes, I probably should have switched yesterday shortly before deadline - would still most likely have hit a villager, as I agree with your Mattimeo assessement Lewwyn, but waterbat certainly was the dumbest vote possible. But I was pissed, because waterbat didn't do anything, no one else cared to show up and I decided "Fuck it, if we lose this because no one is going to even show up and play than so be it." Sorry for that, I'm a little bit emotional sometimes...

[uberfish]

on a related note: Someone care to point out exactly where Zak really attacks Azza? Because I don't see it at all, and that's the logic people were using to move azza off the #1 or #2 suspect position.

[Lewwyn]

I knew someone would finally start to dig through that thread and it would not be only me.

And yes, I probably should have switched yesterday shortly before deadline - would still most likely have hit a villager, as I agree with your Mattimeo assessement Lewwyn, but waterbat certainly was the dumbest vote possible. But I was pissed, because waterbat didn't do anything, no one else cared to show up and I decided "Fuck it, if we lose this because no one is going to even show up and play than so be it." Sorry for that, I'm a little bit emotional sometimes...

To be fair you were pretty alone yesterday. I was up against a deadline and simply couldn't afford to spend a large amount of time going back. Plus I was focused on Uberfish. I wasn't really sold on Uberfish before last night. I wanted to eliminate Uber as a suspect with the scry, but my main goal was to make sure that Pin and I didn't double up on Zak like we did with Bigger. For that it could have been Uber, Azza, or Matt. I decided to recommend Uber because Day 2 he helped Zak lynch Mero, and Mero suspected Uber. But again I wasn't locked in until Uber starts going in with "don't scan me". After that I was going anywhere.

[Lewwyn]

on a related note: Someone care to point out exactly where Zak really attacks Azza? Because I don't see it at all, and that's the logic people were using to move azza off the #1 or #2 suspect position.

He suggests policy lynching Azza on Day 1. But beyond that he actually buddies up to him a bit. Similar to the way I buddied up to waterbat when I was scum, defending him so when I died he would be a fall guy. Honestly I think that's pretty likely. Zak was actively defending him and I don't think he would openly do that, questioning people who questioned Azza if they were both scum. But again, you could throw that out too. Instead I think the biggest plus in Azza's favor is that yesterday during the day he worked toward looking for suspects asked what people thought and actually carried on a dialogue uninitiated. When he was scum in WW#LewFsUp he never initiated conversation. Instead he would clam up and only really talk when we addressed him.

[Serdoa]

We won't lynch Azza tomorrow. If he plays it right. And if he is scum than we know after the next night anyhow.