[SPOILERS] Back to Basic - Mardoc plays Augustus of China

[Mardoc]

Dang it, Twinkletoes, getting the save to me this early is gonna make me late for work . It's not like self-control is an option over here .

Anyway, two quick pictures, maybe more commentary later:

[HidingKneel]

So is the plan to wait for his stack to leave the city?

It's too bad he can see your power spike...

[Mardoc]

It's too bad he can see your power spike...

Yeah. If I had a Great Wall that gave me a Great Spy, I could deny him...but if I'm wishing, I'd rather wish for ChoKoNu's a-plenty. Zhuge Liang, help me!

That said, Twinkle's making some choices that imply he's still not taking me completely seriously. Instead of retreating the advance chariot, he pillaged my cottage that'd been worked for 2 turns and then deleted it. If he thought I was planning total war, he'd keep every unit he had rather than take a small benefit like that.

So is the plan to wait for his stack to leave the city?

I don't think so. I need to either tempt him to leave, or figure out a way to crack that stack. I don't see any reason for him to leave anytime soon, and I don't want to wait until he's got catapults before I make some progress.

That said, HA give me some options, I think. Especially when I've got a lot of them. I've already gotten more built than I thought I could this fast. I can probably get a third from each of Haley and Vaarsuvius, maybe a third from Elan, while getting a couple more from Roy.

This is all brainstorming at the moment. I need to spend some time with Sareln's combat calculator before I know which makes sense.

Option I: rely on Flanking and withdraw chance to wound his main stack defenders. 20% base withdraw, +10 for each level of Flanking; it's not awesome like Hippus HA but it could still let me have a relatively even hammer exchange.

Option II: rely on total strength and sacrifice some HA to get the stack down. CII HA should be about 50-50 with archers, CI/Shock aren't even with spear in the city but they're close enough that I can probably count on some damage.

Option III: use up my axes weakening the defenders, then go in with HA. Maybe mix this with I and II, depending on RNG luck/top defender.

Option IV: bypass the city and just pillage everything/raze a backline city or two. I'd have to keep some garritroopers home in Belkar and Durkon to make sure TT doesn't do that in reverse to me, but with cultural defense, archers can probably mostly handle that. Only his spear can take on a HA in the field. If I wander around with axes stacked with HA, then he has nothing that can get odds on me until catapults or HA. Once I'm past the city, HA can outrace his stack to his backlines, so I'd only face new construction. Or if he does retreat his army, I ought to be able to burn Gergovia and maybe take on his army in the field. Or something that Commodore suggests and I'll have to look at the map again - maybe send my HA via galley on the south coast, out of TT sight range, to simply surprise him. Or, well, even galleys in sight could be effective, maybe, depending on how tight his cities are. Forking is good. Galleys would be useful later on, too, for a Cho amphibious assault.

Option V: wait for catapults and do this slowly and methodically. Least favored, but if I can't work out a way to do one of the above this might work.

I need to spend some quality time with the map and see if I can work out a way to do one of the above.

[HidingKneel]

I like Option IV (and I'm guessing you do too, since it's described in so much more depth than the others ).

[Mardoc]

I like Option IV (and I'm guessing you do too, since it's described in so much more depth than the others ).

I'm waffling. On the one hand, if it works, it's pretty elegant. On the other hand, I'm going all-in now, I want to use my forces before they get stale. In particular, I want to hit TT before he takes me seriously, and before he builds any catapults. Against his current stack in Gergovia, I'd expect to lose probably 6 fights: 2 to the spear, 1 to each axe, 1 to one of the archers. Assume 1 withdrawal, and we're talking about spending 250 hammers of HA to destroy 235 hammers of mixed units, and a city. That's tolerable, really. It's even better if I can lose axes instead of HA.
Not elegant, but 1:1 attrition definitely favors me - and that ignores the value of the city itself.

Sometimes there's something to be said for the sledgehammer. I can probably get, in 5-6 turns (aka before cats are done but soon enough that TT may think I'm still on defense) a stack of ~15 horse archers and free up 5 or so 1-movers to help. Advance first turn with the slow stack, pretend that I'm going to hit Gergovia with them. TT points, laughs. Maybe he even attacks out. Next turn I hit with the one-movers...and also with a massive pile of HA from the fog. I could end up with 5 healthy and 5 newly promoted HA in Gergovia, with nothing between them and the rest of TT's empire but the whip.

It's the only chance I have to end this quickly, I think. Spend a lot upfront, but that's better than letting the war drag on for eons. It does, however, assume that he remains mostly passive for the next 5 turns. If I see a lot more from him, especially spears, then I'll have to back off and try merely pillaging and forking.

It's probably worth also building a galley or two to try to sneak in some backlines havoc. The more threats I present TT with, the more chances he has to make mistakes. But I think the biggest mistake I could make, personally, is to slow down. Pedal to the metal!

Edit: The main reason why this might work is having enough units available to kill all wounded units and protect my own wounded ones. So I have to outnumber him by a lot for it to work.

[Mikehendi]

I don't think that trying to run a pillaging stack into Twinkle's backlines would be a very good idea. It sounds like that would only give him time to whip more defenders and kill your units when they are deep in his territory and far from home. Maybe I am prejudicing from coming here and reading the Sulla Pitboss game but that was my first thought. I think that if you are going to fight then it's better just to hit with horse archers out of the fog that Twinkle doesn't see coming. He only has 1 spear in his border city right now. If you don't show him horse archers then he probably won't build more spears. As long as he does not slave walls in that border city then you can likely capture it.

Tactically you need to chop that forest to the SE of Durkon. It is a huge danger because Twinkle can move onto that tile and get a huge defensive bonus right next to your own city any time he wants. If you do not attack his city very soon, then I think you need to remove that forest.

[HidingKneel]

Not elegant, but 1:1 attrition definitely favors me - and that ignores the value of the city itself.

It would definitely favors you if your goal is to win the war. But is it going to help you win the game? On the one hand, you had a tech lead over TT at the start which was probably only going to widen. On the other hand, you were about to run out of land... this is probably your best way to get more.

And at this point, you've already invested so much that you pretty much need to see a return on it. Gotta use those HAs while they're relevant, and they'll never be more relevant than they are now.

Do you have a sense of where Ruff is on the map? Would be good to know how much elbow-room you'll have to consolidate your gains, assuming that the war goes well.

[Mardoc]

I don't think that trying to run a pillaging stack into Twinkle's backlines would be a very good idea. It sounds like that would only give him time to whip more defenders and kill your units when they are deep in his territory and far from home. Maybe I am prejudicing from coming here and reading the Sulla Pitboss game but that was my first thought. I think that if you are going to fight then it's better just to hit with horse archers out of the fog that Twinkle doesn't see coming. He only has 1 spear in his border city right now. If you don't show him horse archers then he probably won't build more spears. As long as he does not slave walls in that border city then you can likely capture it.

That's a fair point. Don't tickle him, hit him. It's the direction I'm leaning, anyway; if he does see the light and builds a bundle of spears, then I'll have to reevaluate.

Tactically you need to chop that forest to the SE of Durkon. It is a huge danger because Twinkle can move onto that tile and get a huge defensive bonus right next to your own city any time he wants. If you do not attack his city very soon, then I think you need to remove that forest.

Yes...but I need another sizable stack to do that safely. No point in just giving Twinkle some workers.

Maybe that would be a good way to 'show' him what I'm doing with my power increase. I'm defending two cities and a worker stack. I'm certainly not being aggressive - not me! I don't like wars If he doesn't actually do the math, he may not realize there's a missing bit. And if I cover my stack with mainly axes, that'll be showing him lots of axes to worry about and build to counter, rather than mounted units.

Plus it would improve my tactical position and give me hammers and strengthen Durkon. Also use that force to hook up stone and get to the cows, generally making Durkon less of a wasted city...yeah, this has potential.

It would definitely favors you if your goal is to win the war. But is it going to help you win the game? On the one hand, you had a tech lead over TT at the start which was probably only going to widen. On the other hand, you were about to run out of land... this is probably your best way to get more.

I don't think I can win the game without winning this war. TT's made it clear that I will have to continue to invest in military as long as he's around. I can't see a pillaging campaign or other hurt but not kill actions making him less willing to fight me. Winning the war won't be enough to win the game, but losing it will be enough to lose the game.

Plus, yes, I am almost out of land. 2 cities worth founding as soon as we're at peace, but both require 2nd ring borders to be worthwhile - they're not going to pay back very quickly. If Twinkle hadn't started this, I'd be looking to set up a war sometime soon anyway.

And at this point, you've already invested so much that you pretty much need to see a return on it. Gotta use those HAs while they're relevant, and they'll never be more relevant than they are now.

I don't like this reasoning. I need to do whatever makes the most sense from my current position, regardless of what I did yesterday. I'm just arguing that having #1 military, a slight military tech lead, and a lot of production is a good position to be aggressive .

Do you have a sense of where Ruff is on the map? Would be good to know how much elbow-room you'll have to consolidate your gains, assuming that the war goes well.

No, not at all. Other than he was able to walk a warrior to me and Sian hasn't been able to do so. And he's beyond where my scouting axe made it to, so he's not directly on TT's border unless they border in the north.

[HidingKneel]

Yes...but I need another sizable stack to do that safely. No point in just giving Twinkle some workers.

Maybe it's not even in your interest to do it too safely? You could offer him an opportunity to kill a worker... if he's willing to sacrifice a bit of military to hit you at unfavorable odds on defensive terrain. I don't know how the math works, but is it possible to arrange hammer exchange might look favorable to him (because he gets to kill a worker) but is actually favorable to you (because you don't have to fight those units as city defenders)?

If that forest is a strategic spot you don't want his units on, then this is a bad move. But it seems to me that if you've got enough units onhand that your cities are safe, then the tile you really don't want his units on is Gergovia.

[Commodore]

Horay for defeating the sunk costs fallacy! But hammering might just be the best way to solve this one. Pre-cats, it's much less suicidal.