... was pretty uneventful. Commodore added an archer to the warrior in the western city, and has now 2 axes and the chariot in the eastern one (where he also borders Cairo). That would give us some headache (part of the reason is no chariots because no AH because I've been having fun with the religious techs), but would not likely break through, and he still isn't building up power.
FT's power is spiking hard with 6 pop whipped away in the last two turns, as he's charging into SD with, I assume, HAs (he didn't have Writing yet last time I looked -- yep this GNP is without libraries). I'm thinking that Ruff might also be a viable HA target, either for FT after he's chewed through FT, but also for ourselves. We would likely gain just one city though, and an enemy if FT doesn't eat the rest of him immediately. And we already have 2 neighbours with tense relations.
Breakeven is below 50% now, so I need 4 turns of saving gold to finance the 4 turns of researching Agri/AH. Forge is whipped next turn, then it's all back to expansion/workers/units. I want a missionary for Nilakantha (island) rather soon, as well as one for the southern plant, and a trireme as well, which will have to come from Mahadeva most likely. Not sure if we need a fifth worker before the next settler, probably yes.
graphs (forgot demos, weren't too interesting fwiw):
I've said before that I feel accomplished with stuff like this:
now what's dubious was the macro decision to go for the Oracle and forge in the first place. We'll see what comes out of it.
Island's getting improved:
both workers finish the pasture next turn, then mine the gems together. I'm not sure if I keep both around afterwards. I want the granary in this city, and then Moai, with some whips along the way, and will also need a lighthouse, maybe only after Moai. I want to avoid chopping before I get Hindu to spread (and it seems I'll have to do that on my own, still just one spread in > 50 turns Natural Judaism spread would also be a possibility, although the is kind of needed at the cap and Mahadeva atm). So next up for the cap is a missionary, although it also wants an axe, as the current garrison is just an archer... and somewhere I'll have to build a trireme finally, possibly by a 2pop whip from Nilakantha acutally. I also shouldnt whip as much in the capital, it already got 40 turns of anger. Maybe just build workers with the food surplus. Need to wokr this out better.
I'll have a very careful (don't wanna lose the medic scout) look to the south:
Which brings us to foreign news:
FT whipped another 4 pop (2x2), made peace with GKC/superdeath, then proceeded to declare war on Elkad, who is already at war with MrCairo. FT's power is immense (before those whips). Maybe the idea here is to catch Elkad before he gets to Ballistaphants. It also looks like Elkad is in a similar position on the map as us, but further east, as he now has war with someone on the north (Cairo) and south (FT)
Closer to home, Commodore walked up his third super axe, this time towards the western city:
I dread having to fight these at technological parity. Part of the reason for my tendency towards HBR at the moment (chariots would of course also be really good, but... I'll get there)
Mahadeva produces the third axe for this theater and as you can see, Pashupati is working on another. Comm doesn't seem set to attack fwiw, he hasn't whipped - but has top MFG - and of course he has to guard against Cairo as well, and to a low extent Cornflakes (I doubt CF would do anything offensive here but still, he can look into that city...). But I have to say I get a bad feeling in my guts when I look at these things.
I also hope he lets me improve gold - at least the southern one, for starters. The worker has finished the pasture and is now on the "rally" tile (sadly, I couldn't find anything useful for him to do this turn that would have made him available next turn for the gold). I'll have a spear guarding next to him (note that Comm can't strike the southern gold tile with a chariot from the fog, the only option would be a fresh one from Ryu, that would be a pretty silly build and I also can monitor that).
I'll also move a worker from the south onto the "road here" tile next turn. Should be in time before Cairo gets the FP tile (I hope, I think he gets the border pop next turn).
Demos/graphs - do we see Comm's GNP stagnating after the research cycle, due to the costs he gets from the two cities without foreseeable benefit? I hope we do.
anybody else noticed Commodore has been posting a lot lately? I'm sure he mentioned this somewhere inbetween:
He still hasn't whipped though. I... also haven't. I'll have three axes in the city anyways when he can attack, and can whip Pashupati next turn if needed (also made no sense for overflow). Mahadeva had just finished its new axe (and I started another one instead of the worker that I'd have preferred ), and I'll also own 80 gold next turn that can be used to upgrade the warrior if there's a real emergency (question: after upgrading, a unit can't move, correct?). I think if he doesn't suddenly show up with a lot more, we should be able to hold with 3 axes there, 2 more instantly available, and more coming from the south if needed, barring some very bad rolls.
It's really annoying not to have horses connected right now. I've offered stone+marble for horses to FT, Ruff, and Cairo (the latter one maybe not so smart, as it tells him I need it, but I hope he's tied up in his war with Elkad).
I can't see Cairo's and Comm's copper in the trade window, which makes me suspect they traded it , but should I not be able to see that in the F4 panel?
Comm not whipping and also not roading makes it look like maybe he's not really committed, as in, he just wants to test the waters, see if he can achieve something before the culture at Pashupati jumps to 40% and puts heavy pressure on his new cities. He's very much exposing his own cities, but Cairo can't see LL being empty, sadly. Of course he's benefitting there from us having no 2movers Would be really nice if someone took that trade (FT... unlikely, I think he's conquering Elkad with HAs atm. Ruff may be just the guy to take it. And then I get Stonehenge on my doorstep - yep, still not built.)
Annoyingly all this doesn't allow me to improve the gold, so I sent the worker south cottaging.
FT took a 2-pop city from Elkad, who is now down to three. A shame, he'd have been a natural ally. That power graph of FT's still knows just one direction
Demos / graphs. We're even with Comm on power, but he has better units.
instead of a report, a question to pindi and Adrien, if you read it in time:
Commodore moved in. From what you saw last turn, he brought an extra chariot (I had hidden our second spear from him) and promoted the two axes to shock. I whipped three axes that didn't hurt too much, which you can see as well. I have made some mistakes, including that none of the axes has a fortification bonus. Nobody wants to do a horse trade with us.
Main question: Should I promote the warrior to another axe? As you can see, we don't need him on the defense this turn, as there are already 3 axes in the city. We have another one coming out next turn for the counter attack. So the 80 gold would be invested to enable us to counterattack with two axes next turn. That could be worth a kill, if the shock axes win both, but get hurt badly in the process. But as you can also see, 80 gold is > 4 turns of savings at this point.
other question: You see a spear on the cow SE of the city. He has three options:
remain in place so as not to allow Commodore to pillage the cow.
attack the chariot! The shock axes can then kill him easily BUT that also means that one of them can't attack the city this turn, giving us time to bring in reinforcements. If they split, it's easier for us to take them out. We have to take care that they don't get to Mahadeva, but that is possible if he doesn't attack Pashupati.
Move into the city, because one spear against two chariots is actually not that unlikely to lose.
last one: Next turn the overflow allows for either an archer or a walls, which doesn't come online before his second turn of attacking. Of course it all depends on what the situation is after the attack, but do you have a general suggestion? The border pop is stil l6 or 7 turns away.
I have to admit that it sucks not to have chariots available right now.
I can leave the turn open for another 2-3 hours. I would, of course, very much appreciate some help.
Played it. Attacked with the spear, who won with 72HP left (he still has odds on the chariot). First blood, at least (and 6 GG points, IMP ftw!)
I couldn't bring myself to upgrade the warrior, but we still have the option next turn if it's needed.
Btw anyone view how Rusten felt betrayed in PB46 by Comm who stabbed him despite friendly signals? Here you see him violating a holy cow/deer pact, no older than 15 turns . I hope I can send him to his deserved purgatory.
Also Ruff offered us a pig/cow trade, which I took this time. I'd prefer horsemeat on the table though.
He killed the spear but didn't attack the city. His shock axe promoted (auto?) to medic I, and is now at 4.7/5. I think I'm content with that. Traded 35 hammers for 30 but got one more turn for preparation.
Here's the new picture:
Mahadeva has a spear garrison and a new axe, which I will both pull onto the banana, together with the medic scout (a catastrophic scenario has Cairo getting a fresh Immortal in SS next turn and using it to snipe our worker). Another axe from Gangadhara will arrive on the stone this turn. Rest is what you see. Your thoughts?
should I attack out against the shock axe stack (don't think so, maybe next turn with the new axe)?
the walls can be an archer instead, what would you prefer (4 turns until 40% cultural defense fwiw)?
again, upgrade the warrior? (I should not stay on 100% research but rather 50%/whatever it takes to bring AH down to 2 turns, to keep that option for next turn)
I'll likely also pull the axe from the island and start a new one there, hoping Cairo doesn't have an invasion boat ready just now.
Yep, this is why we were pushing for AH earlier. That forge play is cute but we're going to miss not having chariots for taking on those axes.
I'd advise not to get caught up in the diplomacy part. The peace signalling is nice when it works but those trades all can mean different things to different people. In the end this is a competitive game and there's nothing wrong with striking when an opponent is weak. You're right that it's now our mission to make sure he lives to regret his foolish choices But Commodore is a very capable tactician and strategist- he will exploit any weakness he sees.
Go with the walls and sit in the city. We have the same number of attackers as defenders. Attacking our will take at least 2 axes to kill 1 of his thanks to the promotion. To hit that 2 shock + chariot stack I'd imagine we would need 6 units plus 3 to cover defense in the city. So I think it's better to use the walls to negate his shock advantage. However - what will happen next is Commodore will pillage the land and then probe south to find weaker targets to hit.
Keep pumping out units everywhere and we'll have to hit when we have the advantage.
thanks for chiming in pindi! Before I answer have an overview shot from my end of the turn.
(May 25th, 2020, 14:01)pindicator Wrote: Yep, this is why we were pushing for AH earlier. That forge play is cute but we're going to miss not having chariots for taking on those axes.
For the record, I think if we had AH and horses connected, Comm would just have brought spears, so the chariots wouldn't do all that much. But that opportunity cost for him would have been a big plus in our book for sure, as it seems he doesn't really want to commit. His only whip has been a two pop whip in a faraway city we can't see (and 2pop is unlikely to be a unit), and our power rating is now significantly higher than his, after the last three axes.
Well or maybe he wouldn't have attacked at all.
Overall, at this point the Oracle seems pretty ill-advised, sure. We don't even have a trireme started yet, nor plans to do so anytime soon (it's all axes right now )
(May 25th, 2020, 14:01)pindicator Wrote: I'd advise not to get caught up in the diplomacy part. The peace signalling is nice when it works but those trades all can mean different things to different people. In the end this is a competitive game and there's nothing wrong with striking when an opponent is weak. You're right that it's now our mission to make sure he lives to regret his foolish choices But Commodore is a very capable tactician and strategist- he will exploit any weakness he sees.
re: our previous deal with Comm, I was trying to make a joke there. Of course the Commodore to hell part is dead serious though
Especially after Rusten's laments I was sure Comm wouldn't miss an opportunity, and less so after he planted those cities. I did not really expect him to move in now, because as said he didn't, and still doesn't, seem as committed to really push through.
(May 25th, 2020, 14:01)pindicator Wrote: Go with the walls and sit in the city. We have the same number of attackers as defenders. Attacking our will take at least 2 axes to kill 1 of his thanks to the promotion. To hit that 2 shock + chariot stack I'd imagine we would need 6 units plus 3 to cover defense in the city. So I think it's better to use the walls to negate his shock advantage. However - what will happen next is Commodore will pillage the land and then probe south to find weaker targets to hit.
To be sure, we are now at 4 axes in the city, plus an axe/spear and medic scout on the banana, and another axe coming up on the stone (useful if we decide to hold the banana tile in case he tries to move on Mahadeva. Here I misplayed, it could have come one turn earlier and already be on the banana).
Also Commodore has the second half of the turn, so what happens now is very dicey:
He can attack this turn without the walls, but at worse odds than he had initially, with one axe slightly wounded. If he does that, it all depends on the rolls. The combat simulator I'm using* has him losing 1.15 axes on average. If he gets great rolls, I think we still hold the city when the walls come up, if needed with the warrior upgrade. If his axes are wounded and we haven't lost all of ours we can take them out, although he will likely have promo healed with two of them (the medic promotion he got automatically on the axe was probably not what he wanted though ). Of course the axe/archer on the hill will be nasty, and maybe we better just threaten his city and offer peace, or go for serious revenge.
If he doesn't attack he can't really take the city anymore, but he can unite his stacks S or N of the city, or he can move onto the cow, or even onto the jungle, in order to push for Mahadeva. Then there's the question whether we should risk attacking him with 5 axes and one coming up (and still, one upgrade available for an emergency). I think probably yes if he's on flatland.
*I've lost the Cyneheard sheet, anybody got it or a link?
I kind of hope he does attack, as the slog otherwise could be awful. Remind me next turn after his 3 wins
I am quite certain that we hold this city, if he doesn't bring serious reinforcements soon. I have offered peace. He can assume that it's from a position of strength (as in, telling him that he will not have an easy conquest). In that case he may just accept, which would be good, since in 5 turns we can be starting chariots for if he wants to come back. If he sees it as a sign of weakness, that can also be good, as he may do a greedy move.
(May 25th, 2020, 14:01)pindicator Wrote: Keep pumping out units everywhere and we'll have to hit when we have the advantage.
Do. Will.
Bit of a turn report: (69)
Poor Elkad is not long for this world. He even declared on us, but just to get a scout through. FT last turn took a 3pop city from him (I forgot to register whether it was the capital) and CF declared on him this turn.
The one good thing is that it may keep Cairo busy. I am concerned about him: I can't see his horses and copper in the trade window. That means he has to be trading them, and I suspect that it's with Comm, signalling a dogpile against us. That would of course have the potential to become really nasty. In particular, the horse disappeared only this turn while the copper disappeared before the war, maybe they are communicating a mounted attack? Ill ask again: Should I not be able to see their trades if I click on him in F4, then hove over Commodore? Or is there another way to see it?
In more foreign relations, I offered gems+marble for horses to Ruff. He logged in after our turn finished and finished his, after having played in the morning. He didn't take the trade, which is not as bad because losing the gems would have given some trouble. I am somewhat concerned that he might be trying to establish his turn after ours, planning an attack. He has not built power though and superdeath on his other border still wants revenge. He also offered pig/cow last turn, that would be very bad-mannered (yes I know, I shouldn't...)
Demos/graphs surprisingly don't look as bad. We're second in power actually, only behind FT, but of course our problem is that Comm's units are so much better than ours, which doens't count for that number. In any case, if you're second in power in the age of axes and on the defence it's not a good sign.
Natural Judaism spread would also be a possibility, although the 
is kind of needed at the cap and Mahadeva atm). So next up for the cap is a missionary, although it also wants an axe, as the current garrison is just an archer... and somewhere I'll have to build a trireme finally, possibly by a 2pop whip from Nilakantha acutally. I also shouldnt whip as much in the capital, it already got 40 turns of anger. Maybe just build workers with the food surplus. Need to wokr this out better.
), and I'll also own 80 gold next turn that can be used to upgrade the warrior if there's a real emergency (question: after upgrading, a unit can't move, correct?). I think if he doesn't suddenly show up with a lot more, we should be able to hold with 3 axes there, 2 more instantly available, and more coming from the south if needed, barring some very bad rolls. 
, but should I not be able to see that in the F4 panel?
. I hope I can send him to his deserved purgatory.
But Commodore is a very capable tactician and strategist- he will exploit any weakness he sees.
) 
). Of course the axe/archer on the hill will be nasty, and maybe we better just threaten his city and offer peace, or go for serious revenge.
