WW 19 Game Thread - Mobster Mayhem - GAME OVER

[Serdoa]

Azza shoot MJW. Thanks.

[Qgqqqqq]

I'm playing when I can.
Are you deliberately trying to irritate me mjw or are you just an antagonistc jerk?

[MJW (ya that one)]

I'm playing when I can.
Are you deliberately trying to irritate me mjw or are you just an antagonistc jerk?

It's quite strange that you showed up 2 minutes after the deadline. But I'm willing to give that your internet was down because it would be low to lie about that. The big problem was that was a real question to uberfish not a statment. I really have not been thinking who is still playing or not.

I like uberfishs plan much better of double passing. You don't have to follow Serdoa's orders azza. That is quite a strong villager tell to suggest a better plan like that when you don't have to. Even if uberfish is a wolf it would be okay to lose to him for doing that gambit and not some lurker like azza or maybe Qgqqqqq.

[uberfish]

So, since I'm expecting to die tonight now that I'm no longer a top suspect, I'll just summarize the case against Azza

1) Lurking

He's not even posted anything today apart from having stolen the gun and to post a vote on Mattimeo at the end, and just lets everyone else attack each other

This is very reminiscent of how he played in Game of Thrones where he relied on his claim and the fact that he'd attacked his teammates to avoid suspicion despite the fact that he hadn't contributed anything to the town


2) day 3 play

Azza attacks Selrahc for lurking... then on day 3 we get this

Let me put myself in your shoes for a moment, I'm trying to figure out what you're doing and why you're doing it.

If I'm you and I believe Selrahc is scum, what would I do? I'd state that I want to lynch him, I'd vote for him, and here's the critical part, I'd keep my vote on him. I would not switch my vote to someone else to save someone whose alignment was unknown unless there was absolutely no interest in the case on Selrahc (which wasn't the case). I defintely wouldn't go with "the general agreement" to vote for someone else when the vote ends in a tie between someone else and Selrahc.

However, if you're scum, then we can see something that looks extremely shady going on here. Either you know Selrahc is innocent, and as a result you're avoiding voting for him so you can try and prolong the attacks on an innocent Selrahc, creating a distraction from the true targets.
Alternatively, you're scum buddies with Selrahc, so by attacking your known scumbuddy hard, you get big village cred when he flips scum. This is the most likely explanation for your lack of votes on him, as you would want to keep him alive as long as possible, but at the same time you want the benefits of attacking him.

I think you've slipped up here, Ryan.

So here is a "he saved Selrahc" argument fired off before Selrahc's flip. As Serdoa pointed out d3, the hedge that Selrahc might be innocent is weak here. But what's really bad is that Azza's at this point in time doing what he's accusing Ryan of; his own vote on Ryan creates an alternate wagon to Selrahc. This points towards Azza himself having bussed Selrahc and trying to create a fake connection between Ryan and Selrahc.

How does selrahc respond? he attacks Azza on fairly weak meta grounds:

Let me flesh it out a little then.

Azza has devoted a large portion of his posts to his playwith the lockpick. I think the play itself was quite straight forward, and gives me a null tell.

I think his talking about the play has been quite intransigent. The situation seems fairly simple to me, but Azza has been so unforthcoming that I almost get the impression he wanted to parlay it into something more, and didn't want to jeopardize things by getting too specific or forthright in his defence.

I also don't think he has contributed much in terms of use of the lockpick. It's an item that is, at best, hard to use for the village. His day 1 usage shows that he was thinking about it a bit, but since then I don't think I've seen him suggest any ideas for proactively using it. The lockpick does have some minor village uses that I can think of, but Azza doesn't seem that interested in them.

That's why I've got a scum tell on him.

This post is really cautious and reads like Selrahc doesn't want to give a strong reason that Azza is scum that might actually convince others; further, if Azza was town, Selrahc had a perfect opportunity to counterattack him by saying "Ryan is innocent and Azza's scum for trying to push his lynch while framing me." Especially because confirmed town Serdoa had already called Azza out for his bad case on Ryan. My conclusion is that Selrahc wasn't making much of an attempt to win his fight with Azza at all. Instead he tries to deflect onto Ryan:

The one thing that really makes me trepidatious about Ryan is his "PM to Bigger". That's exactly the kind of meta-gambit I can see a scum team trying. Particularly since I don't think it even resulted in a mod warning to Ryan.

And only after it's clear that a Ryan bandwagon isn't happening because no one is taking the bait, Selrahc dumps his vote on Azza and Zak immediately follows by bussing him.

In summary, my read of the situation is that scum were fully prepared to sacrifice a player on day 3 to buy the others credit, should things continue to go badly for them, which it did. The fact that Selrahc's attack on Azza was so weak, and that both of them wanted a Ryan lynch, just leads me to believe Azza vs Selrahc was just a scum distancing/bussing ploy to buy Azza town cred. Which he then proceeds to coast on and try to avoid giving the town any more information to read him with.


3) day 1

I don't have time to finish with this tonight, but look at this post after lynch

Tasunke has to be scum, IMO. He's been feeding disinformation, red herrings and is actively hindering efforts to catch scum whether it's deliberate on his part or not.

Pindicator and Merovech both popped up immediately after the reveal. Were they secretly online and just observing the whole thing, making sure things work out in their favour?

MJW tried to jump off Tasunke very late. If either of these two flipped scum the other would be pretty heavily implicated.

Ryan could've been attempting to distance himself by voting Tasunke. He did say that he didn't think there was enough time for the Tasunke wagon to be a credible threat. (quoted in spoiler)

I like Serdoa's scum hunting method. I see a very strong parallel between this game and last.

Selrahc's last minute vig-vote proposal gives me a slight village lean on him. It doesn't feel like a scum action, why bring up a proposal like that at the last minute if you're in a fight to save yourself. Having said that, I don't agree with the proposal.


Had another thought RE Tasunke while writing this post, I'll post it in the next post to make it clearer.

Call a townread on the guy who's about to be nightkilled to look good (oops), attack Pind and Mero for popping up after deadline when he himself has done that before in the previous Brick game where he was village (that was after Mero was lynched for fakeclaiming as town)

[Serdoa]

I like uberfishs plan much better of double passing. You don't have to follow Serdoa's orders azza. That is quite a strong villager tell to suggest a better plan like that when you don't have to. Even if uberfish is a wolf it would be okay to lose to him for doing that gambit and not some lurker like azza or maybe Qgqqqqq.

I'm sure you like a plan in which you not die much better... but apart from that, uberfishs plan does not make any difference to mine, it still is 2-1 if we miss the scum or 3-1 with us going to either 2-1 or certainly winning (if you passed me that double-vote that is). It just changes around who probably is being around for that 2-1.

[MJW (ya that one)]

I like uberfishs plan much better of double passing. You don't have to follow Serdoa's orders azza. That is quite a strong villager tell to suggest a better plan like that when you don't have to. Even if uberfish is a wolf it would be okay to lose to him for doing that gambit and not some lurker like azza or maybe Qgqqqqq.

I'm sure you like a plan in which you not die much better... but apart from that, uberfishs plan does not make any difference to mine, it still is 2-1 if we miss the scum or 3-1 with us going to either 2-1 or certainly winning (if you passed me that double-vote that is). It just changes around who probably is being around for that 2-1.

Are you aware that I cannot give you the double-vote if I die? I have a hard time understanding you here.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Well assuming you know that Uberfish's plan is better because it stops the plan of a wolf no-killing. Which would make the final day 3 vs. 1 not 2 vs. 1.

[Qgqqqqq]

Agree with serdoa.
Its not some clever evil gambit, id been hitting submit post for hours, getting more frantic as lunchtime approached, because I didn't know who was leading.. My azza vote has been a fanboy@to try to get him to talk.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Okay Serdoa you don't understand the strength of Uberfish's plan.

Your plan.
Azza shoots me. Wolf no-kills. Final day is 3 vs. 1 were you must get the right answer.
Azza shoots me. Wolf kills. Final day is 2 vs. 1 were you must get the right answer.

Uberfish's plan.
Wolf no-kills. A night without a single kill is good for us. Kill me. You pass the gas can and double vote. You only need to allow one player to escape being killed. So that is like a 2 vs. 1.
Wolf kills. Final day is 2 vs. 1 were you must get the right answer.

So uberfishs plan is better because it causes a 2vs1. Unless you are very sure I'm a wolf. But that does not make any sense as an agrument because no-one could stop you from killing me using uberfish's plan.

Now that you insist your interntet is down Qgqqqq I must assume your telling the truth.

If Azza shoots me and does not post anything in the thread he's probably the wolf. It is quite usual to say "get rid of the double-vote". So Azza would post something in the thread if he were a villager.

[Qgqqqqq]

The wolf is going to kill tonight, I don't see why you keep insisting they won't.
Ubers plan requires them not to kill, serdoas doesn't care.