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Chevalier Plays AGEOD Let's Play/AAR

The Germans SHOULD have available troops for the offensive. Massed at Thionville and Metz they have something like 8 corps that haven't been committed yet. However, they couldn't march as far as Nancy in two weeks I think, even if he's ordered an attack on the city this very turn - they'll need time to cross the buffer of useless terrain we've both left between us, as he defends from his pre-war fortifications and I behind the Moselle.

More likely, I think, will be a strike at Briey or even St. Mihiel as he tries to make use of that considerable mass to break my center. My plan in that case is to trade space for time, bleeding him, and hold firm on the Sedan flank with the intention of striking into his rear when possible.
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Late November 2014 - A Bloody Nose

Well, that was disappointing. Kitchener’s attack turns into a debacle, First Army slips out from under my nose, and a mess of German reinforcements pop up:




Germany, spotting his weakness, poured multiple corps into northern Belgium in late November, quickly sealing the gap between the Guards Corps at Antwerp and von Moltke at Brussels. von Kluck is able to scuttle out of Charleroi well ahead of the attacking British mass and reaches Brussels, where he finds prepared entrenchments and plenty of replacements for his losses. I. Armee cohesion is already back up to 600 power, as good as any army really.

So that was a bummer, yeah. Kitchener badly bungled the attack at Antwerp and is driven back into the city’s fortifications:




Despite outnumbering the Germans 3:1, the superior German artillery is able to shred Kitchener’s attacking militiamen and we fail to break the siege. It goes to show why artillery is so important - in TEAW it really is the queen of battles. I’m recruiting more, but am limited by my relative lack of war supplies compared to my money and conscripts.The situation could grow serious if I continue to fail - the First British Army shouldn’t surrender until it starts to lose supplies, but if I can’t get reinforcements there via Louvain then I need to think about evacuating Kitchener.

To compensate for our Belgian disappointments, overseas we see a string of victories:


A French colonial division, landed a few weeks ago in Togo, is able to fight its way most of the way into the capital. The German garrison is badly reduced but barely holds on.

Further south, a British army composed of one corps of Boers and one corps of Indians (appropriate enough for South Africa) storms ashore near the German outpost at Windhoek, in the barren deserts of German Southwest Africa:


Bloody skirmishes sap nearly a third of the Germans’ effective combat strength (see hits inflicted out of total hits available), and our force establishes a firm beachhead. We’ll need to consolidate before marching up the coast to the city itself, but we are ashore in SW Africa and the fall of the colony is only a matter of time. This pair of victories will soon see the German presence in Africa reduced to just German East Africa, where a formidable colonial army under the fearsome General von Lettow-Vorbeck awaits us, but I have no intention of tangling with that particular viper’s nest any time soon.

The best news comes from the Far East, where the German outpost in Qingdao is bloodily stormed by the Japanese army:


The German garrison, 15,000 strong, is outnumbered 5:1 by the two besieging Japanese corps, and unlike Kitchener’s lambs these are battle-hardened Japanese soldiers, veterans of the war with Russian and very well-equipped. Virtually the entire Legation falls on the first day of fighting, except for a tiny company of Marines that holds out near the port. However, the small group of survivors sees reason overnight and surrenders on the morning of 2 November:



With that, the war in the Far East comes to an end, more or less. Rabaul fell without a shot more than a month ago, the German East Asia Squadron fled and was battered by the British fleet as it went, and the Emperor refuses to allow his soldiers to join the fighting in France, so the Japanese will go over to garrison and patrol duties. It might be possible to persuade His Majesty to allow the Imperial Japanese Navy to participate in the blockade of Germany, I will look into that.

So, that brings us to late November. What to attempt over the next two weeks? I still want to most importantly relieve Antwerp, and if possible drive the Germans back over the Belgian border entirely. I will consider the campaign victorious if we reach that point.

There IS still a gap in the German lines. They sealed the northern Louvain gap, although I will press it with fresh British armies, but the Ardennes gap remains. Fourth Army, which has been at Sedan, is rested, fresh, and could conceivably march as far as Bastogne by 1 December and Malmedy by 4 December - which, if successful, would accomplish our goal of cutting off the German army in Belgium, like so:



At present we estimate there are 3 full German armies in Belgium - von Kluck’s I. Armee at Brussels, von Bulow’s II. Armee at Namur (which, incidentally, surrendered on 15 November, freeing that army up for movement!), and von Moltke’s assemblage of 5 corps spread from Brussels to Antwerp. That’s half a million men we could attempt to encircle.



Detail of the German concentration at Brussels. Note I. Armee at 600 power, and 3 corps - V, X, and VII, under no overall army command.

Do I expect it to work? Not really, but it should put the skeer in Germany and I’m hoping as he scrambles to respond that it will open up opportunities to keep pounding him in Belgium. The more troops he commits here the less he can throw at Russia, and remember, time is on our side with the blockade.

Below Sedan, the front is largely the same:


The German incursion at Longwy has been identified as III. Armee, and has been solidly reinforced, but doesn’t threaten anything major. V. Armee has been identified at Metz along with a strong garrison, and VII. Armee is still at Belfort but has the French Fifth and Sixth Armees descending on it.

So, that gives the front as a whole:


The battered cavalry survivors are presently fleeing through the fields north of Paris, more and more British reinforcements are arriving, as are more French divisions assembling at Paris, Sedan, and now Nancy. Most of the action is still concentrated in Belgium.

Losses:


Entente losses climb from 327,000 to 374,000, nearly 50,000 dead over the two weeks. Kitchener’s slaughter at Antwerp accounts for over half of that, the Japanese storming of Qingdao makes up the bulk of the remainder, and then incidental casualties from the African incursions. The Central Powers rose from 387,000 to 424,000, about 37,000 dead. We can account for 7,000 at Antwerp and 15,000 at Qingdao, plus the African losses as well, so again, the Russians are inflicting very few casualties. In fact, in the last two weeks, only 50 Russians and Serbians were lost on the entire Eastern Front! One begins to suspect the Tsar is willing to fight htis war to the last Frenchman.
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Late November, 1914 - La Surveillance du Rhin

The last two weeks of November pass in a flurry of combat as the Belgian campaign continues to rage. 

First, on November 16, on the far southern end of the line Lanzerac and his Fifth Armee successfully defeat the German VII. Armee under von Heeringen, breaking the siege of Belfort and forcing the Heer to pull back towards Mulhouse. VII Corps is cut off during the German retreat and is forced to surrender by 21 November. 





The French suffer 7,000 more casualties than they inflict, but the siege is broken so it is a strategic victory. The reverse happens at the far end, where one of the bloodiest battles since September is fought just south of Antwerp:




General Harry Duff and his Second British Army come damned close to breaking through the lines of the German corps in Mechelen on 18 November, but von Kluck's reinforced I. Armee rushes onto the battlefield from the south. The badly outnumbered British fight magnificently, inflicting 17,000 more casualties than they suffer, but the weight of German numbers tells and Duff is forced to go over to the defensive once half his command has become casualties. The siege of Antwerp continues - a strategic German victory. 

The last bit of fighting is when von der Marwitz's fugitive cavalry corps is caught between 4 French infantry corps:



Again, due to a quirk in AGEOD's system, 25 hits on cavalry count for less than 1,000 casualties, while 19 hits on infantry corps leads to 10,000 French dead and wounded. :X The losses of the turn are basically equalized by that bit of errata. But the cavalry are weakening and in flight - note the Green stance at right in der Marwitz's combat results (sorry for the lack of editted screenshots - posting from work today). 

Significantly, there is no fighting in the Ardennes as Sixth Army brushes aside German cavalry patrols and lunges through the forest as far as Bastogne. The front in Belgium as of 1 December:



I've dubbed this operation La Surveillance du Rhin. A lunge through a weak point in the enemy lines through the Ardennes, Bastogne, and Malmedy, aimed at reaching Antwerp and cutting off a significant portion of the enemy's army? What could possibly go wrong?

Anyway, orders are simple enough. Sixth Armee reports that it will reach Malmedy by December 8, which would cut the only German supply route into Belgium. I'm very anxious about my flanks here, which are weakly held, and so I rail in Fourth Armee and Joffre's General Reserve, as well as marching First Armee north from its positions near Longwy and railing Fifth Army to cover the gap, gambling that the Germans there won't attack First Armee in the winter snows. Meanwhile dozens of forming reserve divisions are railed to Nancy to be organized into corps as my artillery finishes construction, and thence dispersed to help hold the front and organize over the winter. 

The British and Belgians go over to the defensive - no choice in the face of so much combat power in Belgium. Kitchener is ordered to once again try to break out, since he might be close enough to the British army next door that they'll march to the sound of the guns. It's a long shot but if nothing else it'll keep the Germans here busy and unable to move against Sixth Armee. 




So, you can see by the power numbers how badly I am actually outnumbered IF all the Germans fight - Second Army at Namur has over 800 power, von Moltke has god knows how many with all his corps, and there's 700 more in northern Belgium, plus 2,500+ power south of the breach in Luxemburg, Neufchateau, Longwy, and Thionville, to say nothing of Metz's looming 1800 power army. But Germany hasn't USED all that power, and if I can cut off the armies in Belgium, then they'll rapidly wither on the vine. I put my odds at less than 33% of success, but if it does work we might win the war in this battle. 

Overseas, here's Africa. 

 
Togo, Cameroon, and Southwest Africa are all besieged, as more colonial regiments are shipped in. The German East Asia Squadron has been identified in the Madagascar Channel - it seems Graf Spee fled to East Africa to resupply after the battle in the Pacific in October. 

Casualties:


The Entente loses nearly 100,000 men. 48,000 in Belgium, 10,000 more in the stupid French battle, another 36,000 at Belfort. The Central Powers, though, lose 192,000. We accounted for 65,000 in Belgium, 1,000 in the stupid cavalry fight, and 29,000 at Belfort. That means the Russians accounted for nearly 100,000 themselves, losing 65,000 as they did so. So, a titanic battle in the East somewhere in November, and a Russian victory at that! German combat power rose compared to ours 3% in November, but I think they're under terrible pressure overall.
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Early December 1914 - Defeat in Belgium

Well, our Ardennes offensive went only slightly less poorly than Hitler's did. British and French armies are bloodily repulsed all along the front and the front settles into winter stalemate. We failed to relieve Antwerp and to cut off German armies in Belgium, let alone liberating Brussels, Liege, or Namur. High Command has accepted that our autumn Belgian campaign has ended largely in defeat. 



von Bulow's Second Army crushes the flank guards at Bastogne. 6 to 1 odds lead to 20% of the French defenders becoming casualties against light German losses. With the flank collapsing, Sixth Armee is forced to abandon the march on Malmedy and retreats to the Ardennes. 



Kitchener with 3:1 odds fails again to break the siege lines at Antwerp, losing 36,000 men to the German 12,000. 

With that, there are no more chinks in the armor. The Krauts have firmed up their defensive lines, my offensive momentum is spent, and we badly need a period of rest and recuperation. With snow settling all over the front, it's time to go into winter quarters. The situation in Belgium on 15 December, after 50,000 more Entente casualties budges the front not a yard:




One silver lining is the half-million casualties suffered has caused the French high command to ponder hte possibility of, y'know, helmets, for the men. We are able to adopt new infantry equipment, speeding our progress to the next tech level (more on those later):



So, by and large, the front goes stagnant. I cancel any further offensive moves and order most armies to entrench where they are, shuffling a few armies to shore up weak points and to keep the Germans getting too clear a read on my dispositions. Hopefully the next few months are quiet and I can begin pondering how to win the war?

A few reports from the Ostfront:


The Tsar reported a massive Austrian attack on Sarajevo that was repulsed, bloodily wiping out most of a Habsburg army - accoutning for the casualties last turn. But he says the Austrians are infiltrating through poorly guarded rear areas. Gloomily, my diplomats have failed everywhere - Romania is 80% Central Powers aligned, Bulgaria 75%, even Italy has reached 62% CP even though we've both had diplomats there from turn 1. Just poor dice rolls, nothing more I can do there. Anyway, Serbia has until Bulgaria enters the war to survive. 

In Russia, it looks like the Tsar abandoned most of Congressional Poland and has launched a small offensive into Galicia:



We settle in for winter.
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Still really enjoying these. Unfortunate that the undertrained British can't break through yet. Give them a couple of years practice and a bunch of troops from the Dominions and see what happens.

How does the game model the fact that you have maintained control of France's industrial heartland compared to the actual war?
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(August 21st, 2023, 15:25)shallow_thought Wrote: Still really enjoying these. Unfortunate that the undertrained British can't break through yet. Give them a couple of years practice and a bunch of troops from the Dominions and see what happens.

How does the game model the fact that you have maintained control of France's industrial heartland compared to the actual war?

I'll get a trickle of more war supplies each turn, which translates into more cannons and infantry divisions recruited, but honestly it's mostly marginal. I will also have higher national morale and VP gain, though, which is something. 

While failing to break the siege or destroy the German armies in Belgium is disappointing (particularly Antwerp), in the long run 1914 was a win for us. We completely blunted the German offensive and except for the tiny salient in Longwy not an inch of French soil is occupied, and only about half of Belgium is. We're ahead of Entente historical performance so far, now the trick is to maintain things and let the blockade gradually do its work. 

The biggest worry is that diplomatically we are FAR behind. A series of unlucky rolls has led to both Romania and Italy leaning strongly Central Powers, and unless I find a way to reverse the trend (only way to influence them is with events that haven't been unlocked yet) then sometime in 1916 both could come in on the wrong side. Romania will make life VERY difficult for the Russians, and Italy will give us fits trying to maintain the blockade. We'll see what I can do there.
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January 1915: Rest & Recovery

After the intense late autumn battles in the Belgian campaign, a weary silence at last falls over the front. After a lengthy delay, we turned around two turns in rapid succession, so I have the full month of January to report on. There is little action and mostly me trying to reorganize and refit my weary formations after the bludgeoning they received in November and December. 

Diplomatically, the Ottomans join the war, adding about 20% more forces to the Central Powers - seriously weakening the Eastern Entente's prospects, more than anything. However, Germany somehow fucks up and sends a diplomatic cable to Mexico on an open line, enraging the United States, while Italy is promised Austrian territory should they join the Entente, halting the Central Powers' diplomatic progress there and throwing them back into neutrality:


A German goof - never send an ambassador to Mexico! This speeds up US entry by something like 9 months!


Italy shifts towards the Entente.

The main action is in East Africa, where the German East African garrison stages a surprise attack on Kenya just before Christmas:


Despite being outnumbered in both men and guns, despite being on the offensive, and despite the LONG march from East Africa that SHOULD have sapped his cohesion, von Lettow-Vorbeek wins a dazzling victory and drives the survivors of the garrison into a siege. I can only guess it's the massive gap in leadership that explains this result, as otherwise by rights I should have trounced the raiders. 

Still, I think it's a mistake by Germany. The East African force is a very tough nut to crack - marching overland into the province, as noted, costs a ton of cohesion and makes it very difficult to assault, while a naval landing is extremely risky (due to a flaw in the engine, landings are either entirely victorious or your entire force is wiped out as you keep piling men onto a hopeless beach - nothing in between, no retreat or gaining a partial lodgment possible), but now the province is empty but for a small fixed garrison. I scramble colonial divisions to land in the territory, while also loading reinforcements to sail to Kenya.




2 full corps of South Africans to land in East Africa should do.

In other African news, we stage early assaults on Cameroon and SW Africa, in a bid to end those sieges. Both victories, but only partial ones, as we fail to totally wipe out the garrisons:





Still, if everything goes as I hope, Africa will be entirely Entente-controlled by the spring and those troops will be free to move to other theaters, especially the Middle East. The Ottomans will likely be my main target in 1915.

In Belgium, the only fighting is at Arras, where the German cavalry corps, after nearly 4 months, is finally surrounded and wiped out at Arras:







Note that it only has 1 hit remaining after the last battle, which is lost in pursuit. 

The Western Front as of 1915:



Losses:

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Winter 1915

Over the last few weeks, we’ve gone through the snowy and cold winter months of early 1915. There wasn’t much movement on the front and few major battles, so I’m condensing the updates into one.

The biggest battle of winter is fought in early February. On 1 February Kitchener launches his third and largest effort to break the siege of Antwerp. Half a million British troops are hurled into action against a quarter of a million Germans, and in a bloody day Erich von Falkenhein’s troops are broken and hurled back over the Belgian plains:



It’s the biggest British victory in six months, as we inflict 10,000 casualties than we suffer and after campaigning here since October, we at last push the Germans back from the gates of Antwerp and towards the border.


The situation in Belgium stabilizes here by March:


The Germans have been pushed back north of Brussels and now hold a salient extending from the border at Liege to Brussels, and then back through Namur to the Ardennes. The great forest is unoccupied and once again I push an army through to Bastogne, though this time I will stop and consolidate, attempting to hold my gains, before pushing for Malmedy.

The wider Western Front:



In Africa, February sees the French win a bloody victory in Togo as the German garrison there is at last overwhelmed:


We lose more Frenchmen than there are Germans in the garrison, but the province falls permanently into Entente hands.

Africa in February thus sees the German East African army besieging Mombasa in Kenya, while Cameroon, Southwest Africa, and German East Africa are all besieged by Entente colonial troops:



Unlike the Germans, Entente naval supremacy allows me to shuttle reinforcements to the continent and Kenya is reinforced with an Australian division and a French Indochinese division. The most significant victory in Africa comes at sea. The German East Asia Squadron, which fled from the fall of Rabaul across the Indian Ocean to Zanzibar, attempts once more to break out, round the Cape, and sprint for European waters. The Entente battlecruiser Australia, which outranges any of the German cruisers and has four 12-inch guns capable of smashing through the thin cruisers’ armor, leads a gaggle of older cruisers and destroyers in pursuit. Within Table Mountain visible off the port bows, and Cape Town nestled beneath it, the Entente catches up, and Australia massacres the German cruiser force:




The German colliers escape while the combat forces sacrifice themselves, but the auxiliary cruisers are caught by another cruiser patrol under Beresford, waiting for them near Dakar in north Africa, and they are finished off:



That essentially ends any German naval presence outside the High Seas Fleet in Kiel, and the Austrian fleet near Trieste.

The war in Africa drags on through March. General Vorbeck launches an assault on Kenya, wiping out the local African garrison - but my French reinforcements arrive just in time and hurl the Germans back:



There are about 20,000 German troops left in the East African army, against about 50,000 Entente soldiers counting an Australian division disembarking at Mombasa as we speak.

For my part, Dar es Salaam surrenders on the same day:


66,000 more troops are freed up from that siege to move from East Africa back to Kenya (via sea) and break von Vorbeck once and for all. Cameroon and Southwest Africa still hold out, but the end is near and I am preparing new assaults on those places.

Diplomatically, the great struggle is over Italy. The Central Powers blundered in America and the Zimmerman telegram has permanently soured the United States towards Germany. Plus, unrestricted submarine warfare continues and it’s only a matter of time before American lives are lost, further enraging the western colossus. However, delicate and deft German diplomacy has swayed both Bulgaria and Rumania towards their cause, and it’s expected that both nations will enter the eastern war sometime late this year or in 1916.

So, Italy has become the battleground. The Italian navy could permanently seal Allied naval supremacy, or it could become a bludgeon capable of breaking the Mediterranean blockade. That’s to say nothing of the numerous Italian divisions and an entire new front in the Alps that would open up.

The CPs got the upper hand early, but the Ottoman declaration of war and D’Annunzio swayed Italy temporarily towards the Entente. That caused Berlin to resort to desperate measures, and with great arm-twisting in Vienna, the Habsburgs are persuaded to unilaterally surrender Trieste and Istria to Italy:


Nationalists across Austria are pissed off, the Central Powers lose ten national morale (that’s something like ten major battles lost!), and they lose territory, including their finest Mediterranean naval base, but Italy is reminded of her obligations towards the Triple Alliance and leans strongly Central Powers. A worthy sacrifice if it grants the Kaiser the Italian navy!

The Entente must respond with strong measures. Reluctantly, France agrees to surrender its colony of Tunisia to Italy:



I piss off nationalistic Frenchmen, although not as much as the necessity of the sacrifice is recognized, and we lose 5 national morale, a pretty weighty blow when our morale has already fallen to 83. We’re getting dangerously low, and I need to win victories soon.

The final card to play is we can recognize all of Italy’s territorial ambitions in the Balkans. This will stiffen the Central Power’s resolve a significant amount, but it will probably solidify the Italians into our camp or at least neutrality, which is good enough:



Ottoman atrocities in Armenia may also help, but that’s dependent upon the Tsar. The Russians have promised offensives against Austria and the Ottomans in Galicia & the Caucasus in the coming year, so we have hope.

So, on the whole, we are tightening the ring, but there is no end ot the war in sight in 1915.

However, April may see our own Battle of Jutland erupt, as the High Seas Fleet sallies forth to try and break the blockade!:


I know the shot is too zoomed out to see, but the Grand Fleet under Jellico and the High Seas Fleet are both in the blockade box. Unfortunately for the Germans, I’ve been rotating my blockading fleet with the Grand Fleet, and it just so happens both are in the box - the blockade fleet having just finished resting and replenishing at Scapa Flow, and returning to resume blockade duties before the Grand Fleet is too weakened by remaining at sea.

I set all orders to intercept, and have routed every single submarine I have to try and fill the possible German sea routes home. Our goal is to damage and slow any attempts to flee, or to try and finish off cripples left from a confrontation with the fleet. Stay tuned here!

Overall situation:



Combined Entente casualties: 950,000 vs 831,000 Central Powers, a very favorable ratio. We will bleed them dry at this point - we still have America and potentially Italy to join, they already have the Ottomans aboard (hence the force ratio rising from 1.3 to 1.5) and only have Bulgaria and Rumania, minors, to potentially join. National morale is 87 WE and 92(!!) EE to 83 Central Powers, which means our troops fight a bit harder and make future victories more likely. Once rebel alignment matches national morale, the nation drops out of the war - and with the blockade, their rebel alignment will soon start to grow quickly.

Interesting times ahead in 1915!
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April 1915

Well, that was a wet fart. The German High Seas Fleet suddenly looms out of the mists north of Dogger Bank one foggy April morning on the North Sea. Jellico has the entire Grand Fleet out - and as soon as Hipper sees that, he turns and runs for home:




500 ships pass within a few miles of each other and not one single casualty is suffered. The HSF makes such good time scuttling back to Bremerhaven that our subs aren’t even in position yet. A missed opportunity for the Entente, and the Admiralty is furious, but Jellico defends himself - it’s difficult to actually intercept a modern naval force that doesn’t want to be intercepted.

Belgium and France are quiet.

Africa sees some shooting. After a six-month siege, the British Indian and Boer forces in Southwest Africa storm the port of Windhoek:



Hundreds of miles to the north, the siege lines around Kamerun are driven even tighter as the Portuguese launch a bloody assault:


The German garrison survives, barely, but is down to ⅓ of its men after the battle. The 6,000 survivors are ringed by over 100,000 Entente soldiers.

Finally, von Lettow-Vorbeck wins another brilliant victory on the Kenyan plains against a French Indochinese division:


Look, there’s a reason I’m deploying these colonial troops in Africa and not on the Western Front!

Despite the German victory, Africa is all trending the Entente’s way. Ost Africa surrendered last month, and apart from the tiny force in Kamerun Vorbeck’s East African Army is the only surviving Central Powers force outside of Europe. All our remaining African troops are converging on Kenya:



Victory there will free up about 4 Entente corps to deploy elsewhere, the equivalent of another field army. More on those thoughts later, I have some ideas forming.

My main thrust for the spring is going to be in Belgium - even after I removed the BEF over the winter for deployment on other fronts. The Germans once again leave a gap in their lines behind the Ardennes, and early in April an entire French army is able to seize it without opposition:




There’s an open road from Bastogne to the Dutch border via Malmedy, and I order Third Armee to exploit the gap. I want to reach the border (an 8-day march) and dig in, while French troops flood into the Ardennes behind me and set up more defensive lines. Our goal is first, to isolate the huge numbers of Germans still in Belgium, and second, to turn the German right flank in the Rhineland and possibly unhinge their defenses north of Luxemburg.

The potential here is vast - if I can encircle over 4,000 power of Germans, that’s equivalent to nearly 5 field armies. Then those forces in Belgium will be free to hammer the German western defenses, taking pressure off Russia (who is doing quite well). Fingers crossed for May!


Abroad, Italy is now once again leaning Allies, after our furious diplomatic wrangling:



The USA is 50/50 on intervention, halfway there, and Rumania is at 90/10 Central Powers. Bulgaria is leaning 57/43 Central Powers, still a long way from entering, which is good news for Serbia.

Objectives and losses:



CP national morale is starting to drop, although still higher than hours (we’ll see how Belgium goes). Losses are high, and will become higher if Belgium succeeds.

Either a bloody battle in Malmedy or we succeed in closing the pocket next month, lads!
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"Here have the Ardennes for free" - how big of a mistake was that? It seems like CP just let you have an easy path to cutting him off in Belgium - what am I missing?

Especially with how narrow their line into Belgium is - yay for Dutch neutrality.
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