Good point. During the playtest, I looked up that Hammi and Bull wouldn't declare at pleased, but I thought Saladin would so must have misread him. Also, Saladin and Hammi founded opposite religions, which I figured would lead to war from one or the other, which happened in most cases but not every time.
Yes, I think you're right that it does depend on the AIs. How many times have I complained about Montezuma ruining an otherwise great scenario?
I probably should have looked for a map with more volatile neighbors, or at least one with 4 neighbors. But this one had everything else I wanted - loads of expansion room, multiple neighbors (compare both of those to England's cramped start), religious conflicts, and slightly barren territory to raise the difficulty a smidge. And everyone except Timmy did find a Blood Enemy eventually.
More generally, maybe never-declare-at-Pleased is the real AI hole. There's a balance to be struck between believable and relatable nation leaders, versus the AIs being active agents competing to win the game. I don't know how to balance that, though, especially to such diverse groups of players looking for different things out of a game.