[SPOILERS] The Kaiser Strikes back! A Bigger Germany is better

[waterbat]

Ok - ive been looking at some seriously dated material via the diplomacy archives. Very interesting stuff. The first thing i came across were contradictions in info.

The first two on google were from the 70s - first guy saying allying with England vs russia is a bad idea due to the aftermath - a huge english threat in your north without options (he's going to hit you). The second guy saying allying with England vs. France a great option.

I tried to comb playdiplomacy for some interesting games for germany - but didnt really find much there. Even in the longer games, there was a lot of complete ineptitude on the part of the players (illegal orders or no orders at all), so it was hard to figure out what was useful.

[Bigger]

This from Tatan (Austria):

On Thu, May 31, 2012 at 9:24 PM, Tatan Byrd wrote:

Ahoy, Bigger (and Waterbat)!
Seeing as we're neighbors, I thought I would just send out a standard cheerful greeting. I hope we can have fairly rosy relations for at least the immediate future; Germany and Austria don't have much reason to fight, given that you're probably busy stabbing either France or Germany and I'm scrambling to secure my western, southern, and eastern borders.
Perhaps you would be up for establishing some sort of no-man's land in Bohemia and Tyrolia?
Cheers,
Archduke Tatan

here is my response:

On Fri, Jun 1, 2012 at 12:25 AM wrote:

ahoy, Archduke!

I must confess it has been quite awhile since I have played diplomacy, and that was in real life with a physical board. I am still in the process of studying the map and researching Germany (which was not one of my top choices, alas). Still I am excited by playing Germany.

I am actually quite pleased that you rolled Austria. From what I understand, it is very much to my benefit to help you when I can. In games where Austria is eliminated or crippled early Germany does not have much of a chance at all. Further, there is the historical flavor suggesting we should be friends .

Further, I don't know you too well, but from what I do know (mostly from lurking you in PB7) I do feel I can trust you.

I have no completely decided what my opening moves will be (plenty of time), but there is no chance they will be hostile to Austria. I love the no-man's land suggestion in both of those provinces.

Have you heard from Italy yet? hopefully twinkletoes can at least engage in diplomacy, though I know the long first turn is longer at his request due to RL issues. As you said we won't be likely to help each other militarily (for the first year at least), but perhaps we can aid each other diplomatically? I will try and discern Italy's intentions and Turkeys for you, if you can keep your ear open for England and France's plan. I haven't talked to Rowain yet, but Russia could be a threat to either or both of us, so we can watch each other's back in that way, too. What do you think?

also, I sent you a google chat invitation so we can perhaps talk more directly in the days to come. I'm in CST (Texas), what time zone are in?

it is sincere, I don't see any benefit to coming to blows with Austria for a long time.

private waterbat sent me this note:

Bigger
Concerning the following message from Tatan! I was jovial in my reply, but I believe that the content of this message may have been intended for Italy. In fact, he states he wants to secure his western / southern / and eastern borders. We are sort of western - but also could be considered northern. In fact, maybe you should jump right in on that and put some pressure on him right away to clarify it. We could leverage this "misunderstanding" in the negotiations.
-Jere

waterbat, I am not really following you. Austria's western border is Italy, which is a big threat to Austria (Austria is very vulnerable to an italian stab). Southern is turkey and eastern is Russia - which is the triangle that Austria usually has to worry about (RTA), compared to our western triangle (EFG). we are north of Austria, not really west.

Anyway I don't think it would be beneficial to be openly hostile to any country at this stage, and certainly not Austria.

also, I don't mind you conversing with other players, but please cc me on any emails you send to them (I'll keep you in the loop as well). its very important we don't get into a "one hand doesn't know what the other hand is doing" type situation. Also you can put strategy discussion in this thread instead of email. I am subscribing to it, so its basically the same thing - and it will save me the trouble of adding it to this thread. I want to make it as informative and entertaining to the lurker as possible (I probably will even cut and paste gchat conversations).

[Bigger]

I am currently reading as much German strategy as I can. I haven't got far, I confess, but I like the Jutland Gambit. You can find it about halfway down this article:

http://www.diplom.org/~diparch/resources...ations.htm

the spring 1901 move seems very traditional and safe, then the autumn 1901 will be unexpected and give me a lot of options - for a france, england, or even Russian strike (which will be quite useful if Russia is running over Austria, for instance). plus I gain 2 cores on DEN and HOL. hmm

[Bigger]

Chatting with tatan now. Also have an introduction email from scooter/france that I will post shortly.

[Bigger]

so nice productive conversation via gchat w/ Tatan:

me: hi!
Tatan: ahoy
i was just reading your email
me: cool I didn't get an official invite (I did from scooter) so i wasn't sure how this would work
Tatan: me neither, all i know is you just popped up on the screen saying "hi"
me: hehe
so we are pretty much natural allies, no?
How much experience do you have w/ diplomacy?
Tatan: not that much tbh
but yes, austria and germany seem to be ideal partners
me: was Austria high on your pick list?
Tatan: 1st
all in baby :D
me: ah.. can I ask why?
Tatan: because with austria, if you're going to lose, at least it happens quickly
what about you?
me: I went with the easy ones <g>.. RFE.. Germany was actually 5th and Austria 6th on my list.. both seem to be in danger of a dogpile at all times
ah that a good point.. I've read that both countries have a good chance of winning if they survive to mid-game
Tatan: germany and austria both have good expansion opportunities
countries like italy and england tend to get bottled up if they're not careful
me: true
Tatan: on the other hand, there is the matter of actually, er, surviving
me: have you talked to anyone else yet? I just got an email from scooter (France) I havent responded too, but nothing else
Tatan: i sent an email to Twinkletoes(I) and had a minor chat with Mattimeo(T)
me: ah.. what are your impressions of mattimeo? he's even newer to RB than me, I think
oh scratch that, he joined 11 months ago, I'm newer
Tatan: he seems nice enough, though in diplomacy that doesn't necessarily mean anything whatsoever
me: yes
Sent at 1:05 AM on Friday
me: well we're in the middle of a WW game togethor (he's dead).. I got a small read on him.. seems to focus on the meta, very game-theory oriented (this is just my impression).. so I suspect you'll have more luck with him if you focus your diplomacy on what will be beneficial to him, rather than emotion or "you shouldnt trust him" or whatever
I hope that helps
Sent at 1:07 AM on Friday
Tatan: I think it might, actually... he should be more willing to listen to my case against an R/T alliance if I point out that Russia nearly always gets more benefits than turkey from it
me: For instance, I am really hoping you can discourage him from attempting a juggernaught alliance (RT western blitz).. which would be disasterous for both me and you, but also tends to end up with Russia winning far more than Turkey
ah good, we're on the same page
Tatan:
if you don't mind me asking, are you leaning towards allying with England or France right now in the great Western triangle?
Obviously if you tell me I will not speak of it to the parties involved
me: well, to be honest, I am not sure yet
there is a strategic case for either one, so it may come down to who I feel I can trust more
I do feel like I am a better partner for both of them, so I hope to avoid a EF alliance
Tatan: scooter is wily and has a silver-tongue; you are warned
if you attack france, you may be able to get italy to join you
me: ok.. lol. well the problem is Tasunke is a bit unpredicatable.
Tatan: ture
me: you think so? do twinkletoes and scooter have a history?
Tatan: *true
Not that i know of, I'm just trying to think of ways TT can go west and not east
me: ok, I'll talk to TT about it
Tatan: Obviously austria prefers not to have Italy in its hair
okay, thanks
no pressure or anything, though
me: i will probably arrange it so my intentions aren't clear to E or F in the spring though, my move will be in the autumn
Tatan: fair enough
since you humored me, anything you want to know about the east?
me: well, if you had your wishes, and could be confident of Italy not stabbing you, would you prefer allying with Turkey or Russia?
Sent at 1:15 AM on Friday
Tatan: You won't tell either party anything, right?
me: of course not, although I reserve the right to try and make you change your mind at a later date =)
Tatan: sure
well, right now I am leaning heavily towards turkey
me: allying with them?
Tatan: because 1) Rowain is scary
yeah
when I said I had a "little chat" with Mattimeo earlier, it was a bit longer than that
we agreed to partition the balkans and attempt to take down russia
me: ok
Tatan: from what he said, he seemed like he was genuine about it
me: honestly, I'm quite happy to hear that. I'm concerned about Rowain more than mattimeo as well
Tatan: we actually discussed the possibility of you messing a bit with russia in scandinavia... you have any plans up there?
me: yes but probably not in 1901
Sent at 1:20 AM on Friday
me: honestly, I will have to see how that goes.. England will have a lot to say in whether or not I'm able to do that.. maybe a loose EGAT alliance (with Italy assisting against france) would be a good idea
but I cant guarantee that until I've had the chance to talk with scooter and tasunke and twinkletoes
I will say I am hoping to have the flexibility to help vs Russia, but I have to sort out the western triangle first
Tatan: I understand
this is all in the nebulous future, anyway
me: yes, 2 or 3 yeears game time at least
Tatan: I was just putting it out there for the future
me: I like the idea.. feel free to share with Mattimeo that I am concerned about Russia and on board with helping as I am able..
Tatan: cool, i will
it's good to know that i have at least one neighbor who isn't baying for my blood (hopefully two if i count mattimeo)
me: then he can bring it up to me without me having to reveal to him how much you've discussed, hopefully
lol, trust me I feel the same way about you
Russia isn't usually a threat to Germany in 1901, but that can change quickly if she is making gains
Tatan: I would love to chat more, but I gotta get to bed...
me: k, last thing.. are you cool with me posting this chat in my spoiler thread, or would you prefer me just summarize (for waterbat, lurkers, and post game read)
Tatan: yeah, go ahead and post it, i was planning on doing the same at some point
me: cool g'night
Tatan: cya

Tatan is offline. Messages you send will be delivered when Tatan comes online.

summary: we seem to be on the same page. Austria is a natural ally to german. We both fear Russia\Turkey alliance and we both fear Rowain. That tatan tells me mattimeo/Turkey is on board as well is very encouraging.
With the Jutland gambit I MIGHT actually have a chance to help vs Russia sooner rather than later, but I didn't want to tip my hand there.

he does make a compelling argument to allying with E over France. I'll have to feel scooter out before I can get on board with that tho. Not sure I'll have to mke that decision until 1902 with the jutland gambit though. more thoughts to come.

[Bigger]

Dear Chancelor (and secretary)

Greetings from Russia.

This is a message to asure you that Germanies east is save.
Russia has no intention to invade you
I think that you are the best defense against france conquering the world (like it tried ~100 years ago)

I do hope we can cooexist in the north keeping both to our SC there (DEN for germany SWE for Russia)

Good Luck and Have Fun

standard opening email from Rowain. Russia and germany aren't short term enemies, of course.. but always are long-term.

I haven't even decided if I'm going to try and bounce him out of sweden, so I'll have to think before I reply.

[waterbat]

neither of you guys showed up as online for me during that whole time

oh well. Looks good! I think there was an opening to use Tatan's opening email against him a bit, but you played nice very well

[Bigger]

Hey guys - looks like we are neighbors! Just wanted to drop you guys a line and say hi as things get going here. Obviously since we are in pretty close contact, it's pretty important that we keep good communication between us and all that. I'm logged into chat almost all the time - though not always at my computer or available - but feel free to drop me a message anytime. Email also works great as I get it on my phone, so I can usually see and respond pretty rapidly if I ever need to. Bigger, I'm pretty sure I have you on my chat list now. Gaspar is ded-lurking me so he's copied on this as well.

Anyways, I'll spare you small-talk and all that. Interested to hear what you guys think about our little triangle of England-Germany-France. Obviously, I'd like a friend in this part of the world, and I'm sure you guys do too. I'm curious what you guys think of the prospects of France and Germany trying some mutual cooperation. Now, it's extremely early so we don't need to get hasty before we've even talked to anyone else, but I just wanted to let you guys know I'm open to anything. I don't know how you guys see things unfolding, but if you'd like to discuss things further, do let me know . How do you guess Tasunke will be? I'm not sure what to think of him - if he's really green as he says or if he's kinda putting us on a little bit with some of his questions. Whatever, it should be interesting.

(Waterbat - I don't know how active you're planning to be, but if you have a gmail chat account you can feel free to add me as a contact too with this email address. I don't know how active you plan to be.)

standard feeling out, non-committal. Not clear to me yet rather I want to ally w/ England or France. And even if I decide not sure how to play it, so I've held off responding to him too, although I should perhaps do so before I go sleep, and also send off a note to Tasunke.

Tatan would prefer I ally with England against France (mostly, I think, so I could encourage Italy to jump on board - an Italy attacking France can't really attack Austria). I like the idea of Tatan owing me if I do so, haha, and really I'm not opposed to that. But If I go with my planned moves for 1901 I can wait until next year to decide who to ally with, so I'll likely keep an open mind when talking to Scooter and Tasunke.

[Bigger]

Hi guys. For information sakes, can any of you who are willing please post a breakdown of the 7 respective countries and your opinions on it? Thank you.

I can do this. I'll go in order of my picks (I don't remember if I put germany or turkey higher, but probably they were RFEGTAI).

russia: lots of strengths and weakness. the 4 starting cores isn't really a huge advantage, but it can scare your neighbors. germany is a long-term enemy but often a short term ally, which is odd. have the potential for the most powerful alliance in the game (russia turkey) - but the juggernaught tends to favor Russia in the end game so it can be hard to convince turkey to jump on board. still, attacking austria is easiest.
Russia was my top choice partly for comfort factor (I've played them before) and also because they have a big potential for steamrolling if played correctly early on. I think they are a threat to every country except France (even to Italy, sometimes).

France: easy early undisputed cores in Ibera. there is the early FEG triangle, the biggest threat to France the whole game occurs in the early stages - if EG ally strong against you, France is in trouble. Maybe more than England would be, since Italy can join against France. But if you are able to play them against each other or pick a side, your chances are good. further, france can keep peace w/ either ally - if germany, france can expand into England, iberia, and italy w/o butting heads with germany. If england, france can expand east and south.

England: similar problems and benefits as France. The corner countries (england and turkey) are safe, but face problems expanding that france, germany, austria and russia don't. I suspect getting 2 cores (norway is the only easy one) the first year will be difficult w/ support from germany or france.

Germany: the early years will be key. I think if Germany is alive in 3-4 years it has a very good chance of winning. picking the right ally between F and E is key - as is weakening russia, imo.

Turkey: similar to England, but with less options. The Juggernaught is a possibility, but you have to be careful and make sure you keep up with Russia. But even then a draw is likely, it will be hard to outright win without strategically betraying Russia.

Austria: faces major dogpilling potential. Italy can stab a home core on the first turn, I beleive Austria is the only country that vulnerable. Even barring that, Greece will be contentious among Italy, Austria, Turkey, and potentially even Russia - and Russia and Turkey are both threats. needs good allies.
the good news is it doesnt really make sense for Germany to attack Austria, so unless the German player is an idiot (this one isn't) you should be safe for a few years from the North

Italy: too boring to me. It is fairly easy to be defensive and make allies as italy (since you aren't part of either teh west or the east triangle no one is gunning for you early). however expanding is tough - besides the easy core in Tunis, exactly because of that! I've seen Italy work out a draw several times, but winning outright seems very difficult.

[waterbat]

What's going on? We don't want to fall too far behind and be odd man out on the diplo side. Need me to craft some missives?