[SPOILERS] Hiding in the Corner - Mattimeo plays Turkey

[Mattimeo]

Also, had a chat with Tatan earlier.

Basic gist of things:
He's interested in preventing an alliance between me and Russia, brought up the fact that such an alliance is usually more beneficial to Russia than it is to Turkey, which I agreed with.
He suggested an alliance between us, primarily against Russia. I tentatively agreed.
He's looking at getting Italy to push west, towards scooter. Both of us doubt that this is going to be very successful, but would love it if it actually works - for me, prevents any possibility of a Lepanto, and means I can either delay getting established in the Med, or get very well established before he can do anything about it (mainly speaking of ION here, which is pivotal to the defence of both Italy and Turkey from the other)
Discussed how to split the Balkans, but other than the obvious (I get Bul, he gets Ser) he pointed out that it's difficult to actually make concrete statements when so much depends on the board position after first moves. In the long run, he'd prefer Rum, giving me Gre, but that is actually likely to be reversed in the early game, especially if I'm pushing north.
We agreed that Tasunke is likely to go out early, putting all the more pressure on us to hit Russia in the south, given Rowain will be making relatively easy gains in Scandinavia.

Overall, he seemed nice enough, and he really is my sensible choice for an alliance in the early game. His fear of Russian and Italy seemed relatively genuine.

[Mattimeo]

Scooter:

We're nowhere near each other, so just genral chat. Tried to keep it focusing mostly on what he's likely to do, but my opening is predictable enough that I don't mind sharing the Con and Ank moves.
He shared Tatan's concern about Rowain, discouraging me from a Juggernaut (not that I was considering one anyway)

He proposed that, due to the fact we're unlikely to come into conflict, we should perhaps share any info we gather in discussions with third parties about possible agressive action towards the other. I agreed, but it immediately made me think that he'll be offering the same deals to anyone that's not an immediate threat. Will definitely need to watch what I say around him.

Seemed fairly amiable. Potentially someone to work with, but also potentially someone willing to sell anything I say to the highest bidder...

[Mattimeo]

Rowain:

First point I made was that I'm moving to BLA, pretty much garunteed. He seemed reasonably accepting of it (given the only other options involve trusting him way more than I'm willing to), and seems likely to bounce in Spring.
Took quite a while to get to any meaningful discussion, then seemed to suddenly assume I would be allying with him against Austria. I did nothing to disabuse him of that notion.
He basically ended up proposing pretty much a full scale juggernaut, with the exception of me being a paranoid bastard and wanting to keep my fleet in the Black Sea.

He did ask me specifically if I'd heard from TT, a while after the topic of 'who else have you been in touch with?' came up. Makes me think he's looking for an RI specifically.

--
OK, I'm going to have to read through these logs later and work out if I actually agreed to anything... might just post them, there's a quite amusing exchange near the end. Eh, sleep first.

[Mattimeo]

OK, a reasonable level of diplomacy has taken place since the last post:

Had a quick email exchange with Twinkletoes, he proposed RTI against Austria, I'd assume basing it off what he did in Dip2. Given the state of the map when such an alliance is finished, Russia and Italy nicely blocking all further expansion by Turkey, and probably looking to finish me off next. I made nice noises and commented that Rowain had approached me about such an idea, but more about Turkey and Russia getting the majority of the spoils, with Italy getting thrown the bones. Anything to attempt to discourage him from forming an actual alliance with Russia, while making the right noises so he doesn't come gunning for me, really...

Tatan caught up with me after my chat with Rowain, agreed with me that RI would be bad. Main topic of conversation was the possibility of including Bigger's Germany into our anti-Russian stance, though his involvement is necessarily limited in the early game - the potential denial of Swe with a bounce is about it, really.
Confirmed that we probably don't want to let slip of a possible AT agreement to anyone else (with the possible exception of Bigger, if he gets on board).

Found Bigger online when I got up, had a reasonable chat with him. I think I managed to get him to bring up the concept of working with him and Austria against Russia, rather than doing it myself. Though the subsequent discussion of possible anti-Russian starts possibly gave it away that I'd been giving the matter some serious thoughy already. He came up with some... interesting ideas as to how to rapidly progress such a war, which were rather too obvious in their intent (as well as hideously risky if Italy decided to help out, or Russia correctly called a few of our bluffs) for my tastes. He's also on the 'RI is bad for everyone' bandwagon, it seems.
Otherwise, cordial relations established. I believe he's posting the whole log in his thread, so unless I have some ded-lurkers out there that haven't come forward yet, I won't bother repeating it here.


Also, just found a line from Rowain in an email that I found quite amusing:

Looking at the map our 2 nations can work together very well without the need to betray each other for small gains.

Mainly because any betrayal of Turkey by Russia once a Juggernaut has started is really not going to be about the small gains...

[Mattimeo]

More game theory:

To win, you need to own 18 supply centres at the end of an Autumn phase (since they only change ownership in the end of an Autumn phase). For Turkey, the more likely centres are:
3x Turkish home centres
4x Balkans
3x Austrian
3x Italian
1x Tunis
3x Russian (Sev, Mos, War)

Now, you'll note that the above only totals to 17, which is a slight problem. The 18th Turkish centre will usually be one of: St.P, Ber, Mun, Mar, maybe Spa. The issue here is that these centres all make up part of the main stalemate line diving the board, which is actually impossible to pass if the defenders are in position and know what they're doing.
St.P - there are only two places to attack it from in the south, Mos and Lvn. If St.P is occupied, and has one unit behind it supporting, it's impossible to shift.
Ber and Mun: Mun has three possible attackers, Ber two (since I can't very well get a fleet into BAL). If Mun has two units behind the line supporting it, it can't be broken, same with Ber for one, and there is room enough.
Mar: Only two places to attack from, Pie and Lyo. Support from Bur (or Gas) and it's untakable
Spa: W.Med and Lyo, only needs support from one of MAO, Por, Gas.

So, in order to actually obtain a solo win, I need to do one of the following:
a) Obtain St.P early, before England or Germany (or the remains of Russia) can set up an impassable choke.
b) Get a fleet into MAO. Which is in itself part of the main stalemate line, being attackable from W.Med and N.Af, but supportable from half a dozen different locations. This requires racing against the French in setting up a Med Fleet, which is hampered slightly bu the fact they can build straight to the area in question, while I have to push through Italy first (and Italy's ownpotential stalemate point, ION)
c) Hope whatever confederation (or single other player) that is defending these points doesn't realise the importance. Which, if I was on 17 and looking to claim one, they'd be quite hard-pressed not to. Though if it was only one person, they'd also be on 17, and might be looking to attack rather than purely defend...


On the other hand, what if I ally with someone nearby? Basically, doing so on a permanent basis means I cannot win solo. Russia can beat me to 18, while both Austria and Italy block too much of my necessary expansion. Scandinavia (past St.P) is nearly impossoble to take without fleet support, which I simply cannot get up there. If I'm allied with Italy, I encounter the same problem when we're moving on Germany - sure we can probably take some, but any friendly fleet in the north is going to be Italian, not Turkish, and therefore unlikely to support me in taking a winning centre. Austria would mean I had to extend too far in both directions, leaving the centre nice and open for a stab from them.

So, basic gameplan at this point in time: Team with Austria to hit Russia (with, by the sounds of it, possible asistance from Germany in the north). Once the first blow has fallen (which I wish to disguise for as long as possible), blitz north with the intention of securing St.P. Then fall back on Austria, given I should be almost surrounding Tatan by now. All the while, gradually injecting fleets into the Med for the eventual conflict with Italy (whose assistance I can hopefully manage to secure against Austria).
A more likely outcome (still assuming I do well) is that I can get to Mos, but no further, then have to pick either Austria or Italy to team with against the other (and hopefully not have to start defending against both). Eventually, settle for a draw with whoever does well from the western theatre, quite possibly both scooter and Bigger et. al.

Kinda sucks that any alliance I make with Tatan can't be more permanent, since he's been the most friendly and fun to talk to so far, but our positions really do make that very hard...

[Mattimeo]

Response from Twinkletoes. Apparently Rowain was giving him a slightly different picture of what a post-Austria landscape would look like. Not that I didn't realise that was likely the case anyway, but it's nice to have the opposition reveal that they also don't trust each other...
He also said he wasn't going to try a Lepanto. Which is a slight weight off my mind, though of course he'd be saying that anyway, even if he was going to do it.

[Mattimeo]

Don't know how much time I'll have online before the deadline (assuming it's not delayed 'cause Tasunke hasn't shown up), so I sent off my orders before. Fairly predictable opening moved from Turkey, I should think.

A(Con) -> Bul
A(Smy) -> Con
F(Ank) -> BLA

Fleet will either bounce (most likely) or put me in a very strong position.
There were a few options with the army in Smy. Sending it to Arm is an unequivocal declaration of war against Russia, not something I want to make apparent quite this early. Also, I've specifically told Rowain that I'm not doing so, and I don't really want to make a liar out of myself at this stage either. Holding it in place is probably the most adaptable start, allowing it to be sent to Arm in Autumn if circumstances allow, while also allowing it to be positioned in any of my home centres at the end of Autumn (unlike if it is in Con, which prevents the fleet and it swapping positions). I ended up going with the 'agressive in the Balkans' but generally considered fairly standard opening of moving it to Con. This allows me to potentially gain two builds in the first year (if Gre is unopposed and I don't get bounced out of Bul in Autumn, or if I can convince Austria to support me into Rum and Russia doesn't have the force nearby to prevent that), but can cause some awkwardness if Bul needs to support instead - F(Con) is probably my preferred build in the first winter.

[Mattimeo]

Quick email exchange with TT, since I couldn't get chat working and he was online:
Lack of Tasunke communication is annoying, since it almost garuntees FG and means he can't even consider anti-France openings, since there would be no support.
Also a random confirmation that I would actually be sending ->BLA. Not entirely sure why, perhaps Rowain is spreading propaganda. Or Tatan, I suppose, since a well organised IA alliance is pretty much the only thing that can prevent (or at least, delay) a juggernaut.

[Mattimeo]

Ah, so *that* is why TT was anxious to confirm that my fleet was definitely moving to BLA (as opposed to Con, where it would be in a position to counter the Lepanto he's setting up.

To do list:
Attempt to convince Rowain I'll let him have Rum on the condition he doesn't build F(Sev).
Do anything at all to prevent Tatan from moving Rum->Bul. Even promise support against Russia (that is not going to eventuate), if such is required.
Bul->Gre, either bounces (meaning no Lepanto since he won't have a second fleet) or should gain me a second build.
Con->Bul, hence why I need to ensure Tatan isn't going to try to bounce me there.
Fleet up for negotiation, would prefer ->BLA, but if Rowain insists that it doesn't in return for not building F(Sev), then I suppose it can ->Con instead.

If all goes to plan, I get two builds, both fleets. Smy, then Con or Ank depending on the status of Con.

Anyone lurking here capable of offering other suggestions? They'd really be appreciated right about now...

[Mattimeo]

Just negotiated with Rowain that if I do not move my fleet to BLA this season, he won't build F(Sev). He also congratulated my prospective two builds, so he's definitely aware that I'm likely to have the ability to continue to bounce if he does stab here.

Now I just need to make sure that Austria is not going to do something funny (ie. Rum->Bul) and I should be good for this season's moves, all the pieces following in a nice line.
I would like to hear what TT has to say for himself, though...