[Spoilers] Harry Hydra Tours his Hit Charitable Thoughts

[Mardoc]

Your start:

Old Harry

[wetbandit]

At least this time if you start next to OT4E it might be a perpetual naval war. It's always good to spice things up everyone once in awhile.

[Old Harry]

Thanks Mardoc. Is fog gazing a bad idea?

[Old Harry]

If fog gazing is allowed then it'd be possible to orphan any seafood to the north of the start by settling in place. Settling 1SW removes that chance, keeps all the food, gets 2 more land tiles (15 vs 13), but loses 2 forests, wastes one turn and makes clams very hard to hook. I think SIP probably wins.

For the leader pick EXP will save 20ish hammers on the worker and work boat needed to improve all our food and gets the worker 2 turns earlier.

For the civ pick, if we're only thinking about hooking food and getting to bronze working ASAP then the beaker value of our civs is:
China 175
America 160
Dutch 160
Rome 160
Carthage 143
Portugal 143
Zulu 96
Inca 96
Arabia 96
Egypt/France/Ottoman 96
Sumeria 96
Mali 79
Vikings 64
Aztec 0
Celts 0
Mongolia 0
India 0

If we want to go for pottery straight after then we include the wheel as a useful early tech:
Egypt/France/Ottoman 192
Sumeria 192
China 175
Mali 175
America 160
Dutch 160
Rome 160
Carthage 143
Portugal 143
Zulu 96
Inca 96
Arabia 96
Mongolia 96
India 96
Vikings 64
Aztec 0
Celts 0

If we want to go for religion before pottery (so ignore wheel but include myst) then:
China 175
Inca 175
Arabia 175
America 160
Dutch 160
Rome 160
Carthage 143
Portugal 143
Zulu 96
Egypt/France/Ottoman 96
Sumeria 96
Aztec 79
Celts 79
Mali 79
India 79
Vikings 64
Mongolia 0

Of course Sailing is likely to be an important early tech for us as well, so getting sidetracked into religion might not be totally ideal. But if we're getting sidetracked then what about oracling Code of Laws and using Caste Artists to pop borders?  

Here's a sandbox for anyone who wants to start micro planning.
Aztec civ save
Aztec worldbuilder save (easier to edit civ and leader)

[Old Harry]

Reading through the changes for this version of the mod made me reconsider a few civs for our list:

America - new UB Armoury - +1XP to Gunpowder, +1XP to Mounted, +1XP to Armour, +2XP to Melee
England - Stock Exchange changed to 160 hammers, +65% gold, -15% city maintenance
Japan - Change to Fishing/Agri, Pagoda to +45% science (no hammer bonus)

Getting 5XP melee and 4XP mounted/gunpowder/armour units from a barracks is great so I think we draft America (Agri/Fish) into our pool of possibilities. With an AGG leader that gives amphibious swords/maces! I've edited the above post to include them.

The Stock Exchange comes a bit late for my taste is a bank not a customs house, so it's pretty great actually but Redcoats aren't so hot when they cost 2 pop to draft. The Pagoda is similarly late to the party, and Samauri just don't do anything for me at all...

[Old Harry]

Damnit, OT4E went for Toku. I hate starting next to Toku!

It also invalidates my pick predictions right off the bat:

1 OT4E - Zulu
2 Mr. Cairo - Inca
3 Superjm - Vikings
4 Gavagai - China
5 Donovan Zoi - Dutch
6 Elkad - India
7 Old Harry -
8 Lewwyn -
9 Krill -
10 Superdeath -

[Charriu]

I figured it would be nice to give Krill my/our opinions about the changes before the game really starts. So lets get to it:

General changes:

Work boat: requires no tech (working water tiles still requires Fishing, stolen from Seven and ToW) (instituted in 2.0.8.5 for PB41)

Previously: Only available at Fishing

I like the change. It's not a big deal and Fishing civs don't really benefit from it. But it opens up seafood resources a little bit sooner. Especially on water heavy maps this is nice. You may also start scouting on water earlier.

Civs rebalance:

America - new UB Armoury - +1XP to Gunpowder, +1XP to Mounted, +1XP to Armour, +2XP to Melee

Previously: Mall - Grocer replacement that gives +1 Happiness from deer, sugar, hit single, hit movie

A great change for a civ that is often not taken in most scenarios. This opens up a lot of potential for early aggression with them. I think this is a change for the better for this civ and we may see America more often in the future.

England - Stock Exchange changed to 160 hammers, +65% gold, -15% city maintenance

Previously: Stock Exchange - Bank replacement that gives +65% gold

With the cost reduction and the maintenance bonus this becomes a much stronger UB. It's still a tiny bit late, but I think this is good. If it would come earlier it would be overpowered.

Japan - Change to Fishing/Agri, Pagoda to +45% science (no hammer bonus)

Previously: Pagoda - Observatory replacement with +10% hammer bonus

Japan now shares the same starting techs as America, Dutch and Native American, which is fine by me. The pagoda trades the hammer bonus for more science. Which is better? I'm not so sure. Problem is that this UB still comes a bit late.

Mongolia: Keshik now immune to first strikes (brought into line with HA and HA replacements, due to PRO change below).

I always expected them to be immune, so all the better.

Netherlands - EIM: Lower to 3 capacity (unsure if change matters, it probably isn't needed), remove ability to enter culture without OB

Previously: 4 capacity and can enter enemy culture

I don't see why the Dutch needed a nerf for one of the only things going for them. Their dyke is great, but way to late. Now the EIM is only a slightly stronger galleon.

Portugal - Carrack: Increase to strength 4, -30% against galleys and triremes, 4 moves, 2 capacity. remove ability to enter cultural borders

Previously: just +1 cargo

The added speed and cargo space together with the new naval changes makes an early across-oceans invasion plan much more likely. Even without oceans this is basically a faster moving and stronger galley. Beware the Portuguese in the future. The Portuguese are still a naval only civ, but I think they got better with this change.

Spain - Citadel obsolete at Scientific Method

Previously: Obsolete at Economics

I still don't think that the Citadel is a great UB on the contrary. The good thing is, with this change it gets at least a little bit more use. You just have to find a good way to use it's siege exp bonus or the extra trade route on your way to Scientific Method.

Zulu: Ikhanda: -10% city maintenance (down from -20%)

This is a nerf, but a good one. If a civ is constantly choosen in almost every snake pick then something is off in it's balancing. A change for the better.

Naval changes:

Caravel, strength 4, -30% against galleys and triremes, 1 capacity (can transport any units), remove ability to enter cultural borders [Other stats unchanged, 60 hammers, requires Optics, 3 moves]

Previously: strength 3, no modifier, can carry only scout, missionary, great persons, can enter enemy culture.

First the new strength together with the modifier now makes this worse against older ships then before. It still won't fall behind a trireme, but it's notable. The far bigger change is the "transport any unit" part. This makes travel across oceans a much earlier endeavour. I still don't think that we will see big invasions via caravel, because of the low capacity. But it will be possible to make some early settlements or tiny land grabs. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Privateer: Requires Optics and Paper (other stats unchanged, cost 80, strength 6, 4 moves, hidden nationality, requires iron or copper)

Previously: Required Chemistry and Astronomy

Welcome to the age of pirates. I think we will see more privateers with this change. The hidden nationality aspect is very interesting. Interesting times await us. Paper and Compass feels a bit too early. I think one tech later then paper is also enough.

Ship of the Line: iCollateraldamage = 75, iCollateraldamagelimit = 70 (ie 30% hp max damage from collateral), iCollateralDamageLimit = 5

I like that change. It's not an absolute deal-breaker and buffs the unit in a nice way.

Ironclad: Decrease to 1 movement point. Starts with Navigation 1 and Flanking 1 promotions, 1 free strike strength 12, no defensive bonus, requires iron, coal, steel and Steampower, costs 120.

Previously: 2 movement points, no promotion, no free strike, cost 100

I think this a nice mix of nerf and buff. The movement is nerfed without sacrificing basic movement points. Loosing the defensive bonus and gaining flanking means you have to use them more offensive, which I like.

Traits

PRO: Remove free CD1, give free Drill 3 (+2 free strike chances) to Archery and Gunpowder Units

I like this change. Similar to the Zulu, PRO tends to be a trait that is choosen very/too often. It's already a strong trait with the granary bonus so nerfing it a bit is good.

FIN: +35% production of Library

It so sad to see one of the best BTS traits to be one of the least favorite RtR traits. I find this change a bit awkward as it doesn't totally fit the theme of FIN. I hope that this change gives some more love to this trait, but I doubt that this bonus alone will do it.

IND: Can build 2 copies of all national wonders (I figured out how to do it without SDK modding, slightly messy but completely functional), +100% production of forges. NB wonder production modifer REMOVED

Wow, I don't know what to make of this. It opens the door for some crazy shenanigans. I think it's the right thing to take away the wonder bonus for the reasons Krill already outlined. But honestly this stuff is crazy. I'm interested what the people will make off it.

[Old Harry]

1 - OT4E - Tokugawa of ???
2 - Mr. Cairo - Julius Caesar of ???
3 - Superjm - Saladin of ???
4 - Gavagai - ??? of Inca
5 - Donovan Zoi - UP
6 - Elkad - ON DECK
7 - Old Harry
8 - Lewwyn
9 - Krill
10- Superdeath
11- Superdeath
12- Krill
13- Lewwyn
14- Old Harry
15- Elkad
16- Donovan Zoi
17- Gavagai
18- Superjm
19- Mr. Cairo
20- OT4E

We've been a bit surprised at how the snake pick has gone - I probably should have seen OT taking Toku, but I was sure Zulu and Inca would have gone in the first three picks. Perhaps the best ten civs are now balanced so well that leader preference comes to the fore again?

It's a little alarming to see Superjim take one of our top four leaders (the others being Monty, Izzy and Justin), but I'm still quietly confident that one of the remaining three will still be available on the way back. Gavagai gets us back to a sensible pick and I'm hoping that Donovan and Elkad go for Zulu and another (non-SPI) leader so we can get our second-choice civ from 7th in the pick order.

My list of civs went something like this:
1. PRO Inca
2. China (quickest to slavery and chopping)
3. Non-PRO Inca
4. Egypt/Arabia (for UBs that help spawn a great prophet if we go for religion)
5. Portugal/EXP Carthage (for the naval side of things.)
6. Sumeria (Ziggurats on the religion line)

China suits EXP for us as it lets the first worker start chopping as soon as he finishes the two farms. If China gets taken then picking between the five other civs on the list is pretty hard.

[Old Harry]

Nearly there with the snake, just OT4E left to pick.

Superdeath - Huayna Capac of Carthage
Krill - Bismarck of Portugal
Lewwyn - Qin Shi Huang of Mali
Old Harry - Isabella of China
Elkad - Stalin of America
Donovan Zoi - Willem of Arabia
Gavagai - Mao of Inca
Superjm - Saladin of Rome
Mr. Cairo - Julius Caesar of Aztec
OT4E - Tokugawa of ???

So now is the time to micro the hell out of our start. Here's an Izzy of China sandbox. So far I've gone for:

- Worker-work boat-warrior-worker (whipped)-settler eot29
- Worker-work boat-warrior-settler (whipped) eot27
- Worker-work boat-settler (whipped) eot25
- Worker-work boat-worker (whipped)-settler eot25
- Worker-work boat (whipped)-worker-warrior-settler eot27

With the three food so quick to hook I tried growing to size 5 (first version) and 4, but whipping the workboat at size 2 as soon as BW comes in then only growing to size 4 for the 2-pop settler whip seems to work better. It also gives an opportunity for some scouting before clams have to be hooked.

Beating those timings or ending up with more stuff at the end of the run will earn you an internet cookie.

[Charriu]

Snakepick has ended so it's time to look at the combos. Note that I only looked at the civ/leader combos and not on the players itself. Maybe someone will write something about them:

OT4E Tokugawa (AGG/PRO) of Franze:
AGG + PRO + fasting moving Musketman is a terrifying combination. The UB is good but comes late and is somewhat neglectable. There are two disadvantges of this combo. First there's nothing that makes him especially strong on the water with the exception of faster drydocks and second with the exception of granaries and faster barracks he has no particular early bonuses. So if we have OT4E as a neighbor it might be better to deal with him early before gunpowder.
Danger rating: 10/10
Builder rating: 1/10

Mr. Cairo Julius Caesar (ORG/IMP) of Aztec:
ORG and IMP combine some nice building bonuses for him. ORG has a nice synergy with the Aztec's Sacrifical Altar, which already is cheaper. He might use the lighthouse bonus to generate more food for him. He has Mysticism and will likely go to Code of Laws as fast as possible for his UB. And of course with IMP he will expand like crazy. Add the ORG maintenance and courthouse maintenance reduction and we might have a financially very stable empire. I think the UU is somewhat neglectable except if he happens to start near big forests.
Danger rating: 5/10
Builder rating: 10/10

Superjm Saladin (PRO/SPI) of Rome:
Our fellow SPI leader. There are no synergies between traits and UU/UB. But the praetorians are still a formidable unit. He also starts with Mining like us and might go for a similar start. As with OT4E I don't see any bonuses regarding water. The UB is nice, but the UU is the important thing here. It will be intersting to see how much he will use SPI and if he might go for religion.
Danger rating: 7/10
Builder rating: 5/10

Gavagai Mao (EXP/PRO) of Inca:
Do I have to mention the obvious synergy between PRO and UB? Not really. Beside that, EXP will help a little bit on the water. He starts with Mysticism, but I don't see him skipping Pottery for an early religion. Oh yes and he has a UU, too. But honestly does anybody rush with Quechas here?
Danger rating: 4/10
Builder rating: 9/10

Donovan Zoi Willem (CRE/FIN) of Arabia:
Great the first player who is trying his luck with the new changes. So first seeing as water is playing a big role on this map, FIN will actually have good use here. CRE will also help popping borders in all cities with low hammers, which is more likely on watermaps. The UU is nice, but not something especially dangerous. But all of this is only a sidedish compared to the mayor thing going for this combo: The UB. CRE and FIN (now) have both bonuses towards library. He's also starting with Mysticism and together with the priests from Madrassa, he's one of the main contender for an religion.
Danger rating: 6/10
Builder rating: 7/10

Elkad Stalin (AGG/IND) of America:
Combining the new american UU with AGG will produce some heavily promoted units for him. The great thing about this combo is it will help his military for the whole game. In the beginning he will have melee units with 3 promotions, which is scary. His UU comes very late but the guerialla is still nice combined with the promotions from their UB. He's also trying out the new IND. With this I might see him going for double Heroic Epic. Together with AGG + Armoury this can get a scary combination. The forge bonus is also very nice and he might go for early Metal Casting with it. But note just like OT4E he has no bonuses on water.
Danger rating: 9/10
Builder rating: 3/10

Lewwyn Qin Shi Huang (PRO/IND) of Mali:
PRO + skirmishers is a classic combination which will almost guarantee him to get into the mid game. But the synergies don't stop there. IND also has Synergy with the UB (Mint). We might see another early play for Metal Casting from him. It will be interesting to compare his game with that of Elkad as both have IND, but one will likely use it more in the offensive, while the other may use it more for builder mode. All in all a great combination.
Danger rating: 6/10
Builder rating: 9/10

Krill Bismarck (EXP/IND) of Portugal:
The first true water combo. Most noteworthy here is the UU from Portugal. I already mentioned it in my changelog post. We might see early water invasion, attacks or even settlements from him. Of all the players I deem him the most dangerous on the water. EXP will help with the economy from the start, but I'm most interested how he will use IND. Propably going for double Moai.
Danger rating: 8/10 on the water 3/10 if landlocked.
Builder rating: 6/10

Superdeath Huayna Capac (FIN/IND) of Carthage:
The other great water combo in this game, but more on the economic side. Numidian Cavalry is great and knowing Superdeath's playstyle he will likely use it early. FIN does not directly have synergy with Carthage's cothons. But it will have great use because he will settle a lot of coastal cities, because of his UB. His economy will depend more on trade in this game, which will be interesting to see how Superdeath will handle this with his playstyle.
Danger rating: 6/10
Builder rating: 5/10

So those are all the players, but there's more to speak of. First a list of danger ratings from most to least dangerous (military):

1. OT4E
   
2. Elkad
   
3. Krill
   
4. Superjm
   
5. Superdeath
   
6. Donovan Zoi
   
7. Lewwyn
   
8. Mr. Cairo
   
9. Gavagai
   

Another interesting statstic is the trait distribution

IND: 4
EXP: 3
PRO: 3
AGG: 2
SPI: 2
FIN: 2
ORG: 1
IMP: 1
CRE: 1
PHI: 0
CHA: 0

It's so unusual to see so much love for IND and FIN. On the other side usual candidates like IMP were mostly skipped. Very interesting.

Here a starting tech distribution

Agriculture: 5
Mining: 5
Fishing: 4
Mysticsm: 3
Wheel: 2
Hunting: 1

Note that the 3 Mysticism civs don't have SPI leaders. Mh a lot of players will go for BW first and judging from Fishing enough water might be in their initial BFC. Almost nobody took Hunting which is interesting.

Now to one of the most important statistic for us. Who might go for religion:

Mostly likely to go for religion

• Superjm
  
• Donovan Zoi
  
• Us
  

Accidentally going for religion:

• Mr. Cairo
  

Uninterested in religion:

• OT4E
  
• Elkad
  
• Lewwyn
  
• Krill
  
• Superdeath
  
• Gavagai