Kevin Cramer shoots down Pokémon Master Herman Cain because of sexual misconduct allegations. Even through Cramer is against #MeToo. I think it's mostly explained by Pokémon Master admitting guilt by dropping out of his Presidential race without saying anything.
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Final Senate Update
I won't follow politics closely anymore so I won't be able to give good updates so here we go. Tilt: I guess this team. This is too subjective for a serious presentation so if I were serious I would just have the tossup rating here. Governor and Senate elections don't have enough competitive races to justify the tilt rating (w/ tossup) I wouldn't have it for them, just the House and state legislative races. There Tilt would have a team have the initiative and Tossup would be everything else. Lean: Clear Edge Likely: Almost call it Solid: Call it I've looked at each state one by one. Changes: AR: Solid-->Likely R. I've discovered that the DEMs have access to popular Pro-Life Former Governor Bebee. Would still stay at Likely if he declared. This is the only state-by-state look that changed something. NH: Likely-->Lean D. Ayotte and Sununu can declare now. If they don't it's up to Likely; if they do it still stays at Lean because the rest of my map is very kind to GOP. AR, NH and KS are now (I guessed right on MT) the only states dependent on who declares so this map is a hard prediction. KS is solid if Kobach doesn't win nomination. Scandal in VA doesn't change anything because my initial rating was very kind to GOP. NM: Solid-->Likely D. There will be a competitive D primary and GOP has an actual bench here. Trump kept it surprisingly close in 2016 with the help of Johnson and he's unusually weak for a Republican here. Tilt Ratings came from my first 2020 so they are not changes. Overall Senate rating: Tossup. It would be very easy to win all tossups and then they only need to flip one Lean R state. However, the next big number for the DEMs is 51 because Manchin is too conservative (he even endorsed Susan Collins) so getting rid of the filibuster isn't a serious threat because the payout is too low. For other stuff the DEMs already have Collins and Murkowski. If that's considered it's Lean R. The GOP should win enough House seats in 2022 to keep the payout too low but then get crushed in 2024. However, not being able to do anything is a good thing for the DEMs because it stops them from doing something stupid that would stop them from crushing the GOP in 2024 and DEM causes getting benched for four more years doesn't matter anymore after their gay marriage and Iraq punts. Everyone who would have enough seniority to do anything was still present at that time and endorsed those things. By not admitting fault they are still endorsing those things and they won't admit fault because they want to get picked. So the punt gets pulled up to the present day and winning four years faster wouldn't be good enough.
April 12th, 2019, 13:40
(This post was last modified: April 12th, 2019, 13:44 by MJW (ya that one).)
 (April 12th, 2019, 12:49)ipecac Wrote:(March 26th, 2019, 20:26)MJW (ya that one) Wrote: Article 13 passed because sweeds pressed wrong button. I'm pretty sure the EU will keep extending forever because it's only a matter of time until Labour wins a GE who ether revokes or goes for a Brexit so soft that it's handing other EU countries free seats. Without the dumb ECJ ruling other countries would have an even easier time to get France on board with this with UK not having Revoke. As Krill says no deal needed to be a serious threat for the EU to truly negotiate with UK. If it weren't for EU's voting until you get it right I would have a second referendum of No Deal vs Revoke as it's too late to have a successful negotiation (EU cannot retreat on backstop because they would look weak, UK cannot accept backstop because it's the worst of both worlds). But because the EU's habit I would go for crash-out without second referendum (but not possible with EU willing to extend forever). Edit: NI needs special treatment in order to not break GFA to prevent handing the unionists or nationalists an overwhelming advantage. Ireland and Spain would veto such special treatment so it's was No Deal or Revoke from the start.
I lost interest in Brexit because it became clear that the powers that be, in both the UK and EU, both want Remain and are collaborating to that end. It's all theatre, Macron playing bad cop, May playing at striking a bad deal with Corbyn after failing to push through bad deals with the EU, the EU giving extensions having previously postured as being hardline, it's all so tedious.
 (April 14th, 2019, 16:19)ipecac Wrote: A month after nationalists make big gains in the Netherlands, in Finland the nationalist party has just come shy of winning the most seats. Some reality: The Finns (nationalist party) gained 1 seat. Social Democrats gained 6. Greens gained 5. Left Alliance gained 4. National Coalition (centre right) gained 1. Centre Party lost 18. New party called Movement Now gained 1. The swing was to the left, not to the nationalists. (April 14th, 2019, 18:15)Mr. Cairo Wrote:(April 14th, 2019, 16:19)ipecac Wrote: A month after nationalists make big gains in the Netherlands, in Finland the nationalist party has just come shy of winning the most seats. That's the spin. Here's reality: the Finns had gone from 38 seats to 17, more than half lost, because of a party split in 2017 since the 2015 election. So to regain all that ground and even gain one more seat is a remarkable achievement. (April 14th, 2019, 22:23)ipecac Wrote: That's the spin. Here's reality: the Finns had gone from 38 seats to 17, more than half lost, because of a party split in 2017 since the 2015 election. re: spin, most of the news about this that I've seen online focused on the Finns, not the SD or the Greens (who were the most impressive imo). Also, an internal party split has no effect on the actual amount of people who voted for the party in the last election and this one. 2015: 524,054 2019: 538,731. Gain of 14,677 It is politically impressive that the party was able to recover from the split and prevent those who split from taking any votes away from the Finns, but there was no massive up-swelling of support for them for this election. For comparison: Greens: 253,102 -> 353,654. Gain of 100,552 SD: 490,102 -> 545,544. Gain of 55,442 Left Alliance: 211,702 -> 251,254. Gain of 39,552 National Coalition: 540,212 -> 523,446. Gain of 16,766 Centre: 626,218 -> 423,352. Loss of 202,866 |
2 from S and 2 from SD