[SPOILERS] Ceiliazul's First Dance: Louis of the Ottomen

[pindicator]

[SIZE="2"]Seven, you sneaky devil.[/SIZE]

Took me a while, but I see it now!
Congratulations on the pyramids. And becoming mortal again. I hear immortality is a bummer.

[Ceiliazul]

With no turn tonight, I decided to look at some of the espionage numbers from last turn.

With some math behind the curtain:

Using resources from:
T-Hawk (C&D made easy)
and Novice (in Rego's PBEM8 thread)

Treasury = (StealCost * TotalPop * 2 * (TheirEP + 100)) / (3 * CityPop * InvestigateCost)

I see Cull's capital has the following variables:
StealCost = 126
Total pop = 11 (total of all his cities)
Their EP = ~30 (estimated based on graph cost)
City pop = 7
Investigate cost = 405

Cull:
(126 * 11 * 2 * 130) / (3 * 7 * 405) = 42g

Peg:
(20 * 21 * 2 * 140) / (3 * 7 * 443) = 13g

[SIZE="3"]Current treasury:[/SIZE]

Cull: 42g
Pegasus: 13g

[SIZE="3"]Conclusion:[/SIZE]

I just wasted 5 minutes of my life.

.

[Ceiliazul]

Recent updates have been pre-empted by real life, but here's something:

Axe gets 90% odds
C1 Axe gets 96% odds

Sacking the city will yield 51-122 gold.



Pay no attention to those new cities on the minimap. Regularly scheduled programming will resume soon.

Edit: <rant> I realize that post-calendar the minimap MUST dice up someone in this game... but it's stupid for the uncentered minimap to cut me in half! </rant>

[Commodore]

Recent updates have been pre-empted by real life, but here's something:

Axe gets 90% odds
C1 Axe gets 96% odds

Sacking the city will yield 51-122 gold.

Speaking of cutoffs, you cropped out your research. What's your break-even? Any chance of keeping the underdeveloped but nice city for yourself?

[Ceiliazul]

Speaking of cutoffs, you cropped out your research. What's your break-even? Any chance of keeping the underdeveloped but nice city for yourself?

That's a cmplicated couple of questions.

Breakeven research is about 15bpt due to recent expansion. With Representation that isn't quite as horrible as it sounds: I'll be running at least 8 specialists by turn 65 for a healthy 60 beakers without touching the slider.

I'm researching CoL, followed by Currency at the moment. I have 101g in the bank. A very important macro question must be answered in the next 3 turns:

Deficit Research or Deficit Expansion??

Deficit research means using my saved gold and Baylife Pillage gold blast thru those vital techs. I would be unable to keep Baylife if i want to avoid a strike. Currency and CoL in hand on t65 in this case.

Deficit expansion means I keep a lot of gold on hand and lose money for a while at 0% research. Currency and CoL in han on t68 in this case. I could afford 2-3 new cities in the next few turns, and possibly Baylife would be one of them. The city will cost 12gpt at size 5, and contains only a granary and a library. It would be painful, but i could spare 2 workers for the task of roading to and improving the city.

Although 3 of the 5 civs chose desert hill for their 2nd city, i really dont like the spot... but it is reasonably well placed for an FP!

Commodore, i'd love some input on this. It's a game changing decision, no doubt!

[Commodore]

Commodore, i'd love some input on this. It's a game changing decision, no doubt!

Hrm, it is a sticky wicket. First of all, why CoL and then Currency? Having the third prerequisite should knock off some beakers from the top. I know it's generally a more valuable tech (you'll be making courthouses before markets, and unless I missed a report you'll get the religion, versus the small gain for the foreign TRs being doubled), but starved for money as you are wealth building would be no sin.

How much do you want to avoid a strike? You get one free turn and a couple 1-unit loss turns before the pain really starts to set in. It might be worth trying if you're in a tight situation.

There are a few other factors to consider, too. Baylife is actually cheaper than a new city for a handful of turns, as revolting citizens neither pay taxes nor eat them. If you did catch it at size five and with the library intact, you could work lake, both FP, and two scientists right off for a strong 5gpt, 12bpt at max tax. I know it'll increase the other cities' costs too but that sounds like at least a break-even proposition to me.

Another consideration, do we know what Cull's precious metal is? If it's gems or silver claiming land towards "his" supply will be very very nice for a cheap-forge user who will be hungry for happy in the non-Representation-happy smaller cities.

[Ceiliazul]

First of all, why CoL and then Currency?

CoL first gives up 40 beakers I would save with the prereq bonus. Pegasus is making faces like it's a race, so I'm prioritizing the religion. I have a head start on him, and I'm back in 1st place for GNP. Currency is a 4t tech at 0% research after CoL.

How much do you want to avoid a strike?

Keeping Baylife would lead to a long term strike. City cost is 14gpt! See below:

do we know what Cull's precious metal is? If it's gems or silver claiming land towards "his" supply will be very very nice for a cheap-forge user who will be hungry for happy in the non-Representation-happy smaller cities.

Cull has Ivory, unfortunately, and I'm going to have my own source soon enough.

If you did catch it at size five and with the library intact, you could work lake, both FP, and two scientists right off for a strong 5gpt, 12bpt at max tax. I know it'll increase the other cities' costs too but that sounds like at least a break-even proposition to me.

Sim of baylife if captured on ~t62. Yuck.

[SevenSpirits]

Importantly, you can't capture libraries nor other buildings that produce culture (only wonders - and their culture is zeroed out).

[novice]

Importantly, you can't capture libraries nor other buildings that produce culture (only wonders - and their culture is zeroed out).

The Academy is an exception to that rule.

Congratulations on the Pyramids, Ceil! Did you consider 2-whipping stuff and putting the overflow into the wonder, rather than 4-whipping the wonder itself? Wonder whips are very inefficient.

[Ceiliazul]

[SIZE="3"]T61 Empire Overview[/SIZE]

With a the capital regrown, 2 new cities and even a lukewarm war... it's time for a massive update!



North is toward the top-Left.

[SIZE="3"]Hazard [/SIZE]- The city that shouldn't exist - will generate my first GP in 4 turns. The city is working 2 scientists because there really isn't anything better until Machinery and Iron Working come in.



[SIZE="3"]Biohazard[/SIZE] - The Super City - Is hauling in gold. It will work all three FPs (last one cottaged next turn) for the first time next turn. This city is my eventual palace city and is an absolute gem of a city. There's river to the North hasn't even been tapped yet!



[SIZE="3"]Ziggo[/SIZE]- The Adaptor - The only city with a barracks as yet, this city is a perfect hybrid location. Next turn the city gets a little respect, whipping a library in preparation for some turns of 100% science.



[SIZE="3"]Minion[/SIZE]- The most legendary city in all the world! That's a pure Engineer pool I'm starting to dilute. By the time the GP pops it'll likely be a 80% engineer chance.



--------------------------------

Introducing: [SIZE="3"]Gamma Raptor[/SIZE]- A prototype for all my upcoming cities, this city chopped a workboat on t0, granary on t1. Library will chop in 2 more turns. In the SIXTH turn of this city's existance, it will employ 2 scientists.




Introducing: [SIZE="3"]Diesector[/SIZE]- Slightly lesser location, but if I can ever wrest that 2nd deer from Pegasus, a possible National Epic city! Mondo Food Dude.