[Spoilers] What's Sheaim to do? Irgy controlling Tebryn

[Irgy]

Still keeping post #2 up to date.

In particular added a new section; Great Person Plans:

Already produced:

1. Tephus the Mistwalker, who built an academy in Galveholm.
   

Planned:
[list=2][*] Sage/Priest in Grottiburg, for Stigmata of the Unborn. ~T140
[*] Merchant/Priest in Tongurstad. ~T150
[*] Sage in Galveholm, to eventually bulb Arcane Lore.
[*] Sage in Grottiburg, to eventually bulb Arcane Lore.
[*] Undercouncil sage, to eventually bulb Arcane Lore.
[*] Arcane Lore sage, will likely build an Academy in Grottiburg (AV holy city).
[*] Mixed great people to follow.
[/list]

[Irgy]

Well, it's an interesting time diplomatically. Here's a couple of messages I intend to send soon. One to both WarriorKnight and Nyktorion, the other, as it says, to Mardoc via WarriorKnight

[COLOR="DarkOrchid"]I really think we need to bring Mardoc on board with everything, on an equal footing. If he feels that he's going to be the odd one out of the four of us and therefore the next target if the Malakim are defeated, he's not going to want to side with us. In that regard, I'm going to write a message to him myself, using one of you two as an intermediary.

Convincing him that this won't just be another attack like the pitboss2 attack on Speaker/Sulla is important too, but I'll leave that to the two of you.

Given Thoth has already made a long NAP offer to Mardoc, I think on the whole it really doesn't matter what Thoth thinks now. It would no doubt help him a little to know our specific plans, but at this stage his realising that we might be colluding against him will have little consequence.

Irgy Arbandi[/COLOR]

[COLOR="DarkOrchid"]Hi

I'd like to send the following message to Mardoc, using you as an intermediary. Are you happy to do that? Feel free to read it yourself of course, just ignore any references to conspiring to dogpile the Elohim

Irgy

==========================
Greetings, at least in an indirect fashion. It's a shame we've yet to make contact. I heard you had a boat on the way and didn't build my own, and then yours got eaten by a griffon. That same griffon has been an unrelenting scourge on our explorers all game, I'll be celebrating when Rosier or someone can finally bring it to ground. At this stage it looks likemy best hope to make contact is by way of mage eyes. I haven't checked yet whether the summoner trait works on them though? If you have any better ideas I'd welcome them.

In any case, I do trust WarriorKnight as an intermediary. So for all that it would obviously make it a little difficult to plot the downfall of the Elohim, I expect the principle problem with our lack of genuine contact will mainly just be the inability for us to trade resources.

I've been silently competing with you in score for most of the game, although I seem to have slipped behind both yourself and everyone else at the moment. The Bannor being eliminated was a bit of a shame since it made my demographics look a whole lot worse all of a sudden.

I'm not sure what the others have told you already, so I'll fill you in on my own position and situation. I have just one land border, which is with WarriorKnight of the Elohim, with whom I have a co-operative and peaceful relation so far. The continent on the whole stretches much further east-west than north south. I'm basically in the far southeast corner of the map, and the Elohim are directly northwest of me in a more central position on the eastern side. I can see the northern borders of your lands thanks to a map I received from the Bannor before they left the game, although my information is no doubt out of date.

Currently, I'm writing this message primarily to try and convince you to join what has become "our side", rather than the Malakim's. So I guess I'll start making my case.

Peace with the Malakim is no doubt a safe, easy, and therefore quite tempting offer. You'd be able to safely mind your own business while the rest of the world fights its war. But when it all falls our, where's it going to leave you? The Malakim are not yet an out of control runaway, but if they remain unchecked that's what they're fast going to turn into. Unless you're about to finish building them yourself (which I doubt, given you've had the Heron Throne poached already) they'll have the Bone Palace and Great Library soon, turning what's currently a good edge into a complete blowout. Even just left alone they're going to be a problem. If they, thanks to a safe southern border, eventually also make significant gains in Elohim, Ljosalfar or Sheaim lands it's basically game over for everyone.

This puts you, by supporting the Malakim, in a potential king-maker situation, but not a winning one. I've been on both sides of it in other games myself. I had a BTS game with a runaway industrial civ who I allied with, essentially dooming the rest of the players. In that at least I thought I had a number of advantages, in having (what I mistakenly thought was) significantly more land to expand into thanks to some successful conquests and a vassal ally, giving me reasonable opportunity to turn the tables at the end. I didn't, but I still think I had some opportunities at least.

Here however, I can't particularly see anything for you. You have very little opportunity to share in any military game, simply due to the geography. While the Malakim might naturally expand their own borders, you're hemmed in by them, and would need to travel to the other side of the map to find any plunder of your own, leaving your empire divided and vulnerable even if you did. The Lanun aren't particularly waiting for any late game UU/UB advantage against the Malakim, while they are meanwhile gathering Teutorix and Chalid (we think they're likely to snap up the Empyrean religion, they notably haven't built any RoK heroes or researched Arete yet). Maybe you have some brilliant scheme in mind, but personally I can't see what you've got that could turn the tables.

Of course, the Malakim might well lose the war, even with your support. In that case though do you really want to be sitting their, with your raiders trait, but being the only one who can't get any of the spoils?

Siding with us will leave you in an excellent position to make a good chunk of the gains. The Malakim are a substantial military threat to you, but they're always going to be. Having them tied up with a war on the opposite front is the best chance you're going to get, and if it goes well you have the most to gain from it.

When it all falls out, you'll be one of four civs that you're in a comparable position to. Although the three of us have had contact for longer, we're all willing to bring you on board on an equal footing. Once it's over, personally I will no doubt have something of a problem that all of the players are ones which I feel inclined to co-operate with, but I can certainly at least say I won't be particularly inclined to attack you across the seas

We're all aware we don't want this to end up another attack like the pitboss2 attack on Speaker/Sulla, but I think there's a number of reasons that won't be the case. We're a competant bunch of players, in a better relative position, and it's only me who'll be attacking from a substantial distance. And if we can't win this now we're never going to be able to.

Sorry for such an essay, but you know what I'm like. All the best,
Irgy Arbandi
==========================[/COLOR]

[Lord Parkin]

Cool. Will be interested to see if you manage to succeed with the plan to try to rally everyone against Thoth.

[Heisenberg]

Heya~ sorry for missing out on action for a while... My laptop went bust, and it had taken me a bit to get things sorted back out

Everything looks alright so far on the graphs, except the runaway Malakim of course...
Interesting turn of events regarding the upcoming dog pile planned. It pretty much would keep you safe if it occurs, since you're buffered by the Elohim--but just keep an eye out for cultists.
However, I am a little disturbed by the trading of ice mana to the Elohim. As friendly you are with him at the moment, he is ultimately your -only- direction of expansion. He gets a "free" archmage in the form of Corlindale as early as Fanaticism--which can't be far off for him. It's possibly handing him the gunpowder for one of the largest cannons in the game--snowfall.

So... I think the dogpile is pretty much a good idea at the moment to control the Malakim, but I might humbly suggest not putting too much into it diplomatically, and let WK or Nyk take the blame for it. After all, it's a win situation for you too if WK burns off his world spell against the Malakim leaving him vulnerable in the future. You might even keep your options open: if you intend to go for a peaceful tower victory, you can even consider swapping sides once the sanctuary walls are down, if opportunity arises for you to carve a chunk of Elohim lands for yourself, for nodes and an increase in your economy to reach those advanced techs faster.

*since you are going for the undercouncil, you do have the opportunity to do a massive backstab: in the event of the dogpile, WK -has- to grant you OB to pass through his lands. If you "forget" to remind him about a NAP, you could possibly move a huge army through his territory in the name of joining the war, then swap to CoE and declare on WK*

[Irgy]

Heya~ sorry for missing out on action for a while... My laptop went bust, and it had taken me a bit to get things sorted back out

No worries, good to have you back.

Everything looks alright so far on the graphs, except the runaway Malakim of course...

Well, glad you think so, I still think it looks terrible. Actually, the tech lag and the demographics look terrible, the graphs don't look quite as bad as there's a lot of history in there where I wasn't behind everyone. If things pick up when my cities all start to grow like mad soon then it could be ok.

Interesting turn of events regarding the upcoming dog pile planned. It pretty much would keep you safe if it occurs, since you're buffered by the Elohim--but just keep an eye out for cultists.

Indeed. However, cultists on their own I think I can deal with, and I expect (hope) Thoth has bigger fish to fry than travelling my way.

However, I am a little disturbed by the trading of ice mana to the Elohim. As friendly you are with him at the moment, he is ultimately your -only- direction of expansion. He gets a "free" archmage in the form of Corlindale as early as Fanaticism--which can't be far off for him. It's possibly handing him the gunpowder for one of the largest cannons in the game--snowfall.

Yeah, you're not wrong about that, but it's a mistake I made a long time ago. I stressed out, both needlessly and far too much, about WK taking the site himself when I suggested that deal. But nevermind, it's done now. I got a fair bit of "good will" out of it anyway - for all that it's technically a separate deal, my existing floating mana deal with WK probably wouldn't have come about otherwise. Still a mistake I expect but nevermind.

So... I think the dogpile is pretty much a good idea at the moment to control the Malakim, but I might humbly suggest not putting too much into it diplomatically, and let WK or Nyk take the blame for it. After all, it's a win situation for you too if WK burns off his world spell against the Malakim leaving him vulnerable in the future. You might even keep your options open: if you intend to go for a peaceful tower victory, you can even consider swapping sides once the sanctuary walls are down, if opportunity arises for you to carve a chunk of Elohim lands for yourself, for nodes and an increase in your economy to reach those advanced techs faster.

I'm not sure precisely what you mean by "tak[ing] the blame for it"? I don't think anyone could fairly label it "Irgy's idea" as such. I agree also that I don't want to burn my bridges with Thoth completely if I can avoid it. I think I'd struggle to take any Elohim lands though without fairly significant diplomatic consequences, even if the NAP does manage to lapse silently. But I'll certainly do my best to keep my options open nonetheless.

*since you are going for the undercouncil, you do have the opportunity to do a massive backstab: in the event of the dogpile, WK -has- to grant you OB to pass through his lands. If you "forget" to remind him about a NAP, you could possibly move a huge army through his territory in the name of joining the war, then swap to CoE and declare on WK*

I don't think I understand how CoE helps me do that? Are you possibly getting mixed up with some of the suggestions in the "FFH Paring" thread? I've just built Rosier, so switching religions has a cost now.

Unrelated to your comment, I'm actually a little torn about CoE at the moment. I now think I'll probably get it if I want it, as no-one else is prioritising it. Although my allies may well get annoyed about my tech detour. And their reason for annoyance - that it's a big detour when I'm already behind the ball and should anyway be teching for military, may well be a valid argument for why I shouldn't be doing it anyway.

I'll go to Trade (via HBR) for now anyway just for the trade routes. With open borders to the Elohim, I'm getting 2-4 commerce on each trade route, so another one in each city is worth chasing. I think I'll skip Sailing, I don't need it until later when the opportunity cost is lower and I get back some of the lost potential second-pre-requisite bonus by getting the Trade trade routes earlier, so on the whole I think it's really just a needless diversion.

[Heisenberg]

Council of Esus let's you stay within hostile borders when you declare war, instead of being ejected out normally. So you can amass your forces right next to the cities you "want", which should be lightly defended since his troops are all fighting at the front. You then swap to Esus and declare war and take all the cities before he can even sanctuary to protect himself.
As for Rosier, it would be a pity, but it's always good to keep your options open and watch for opportunities. Furthermore, Esus gives instant access to Gibbon--in short, snowfall, without needing to bother about strength of will.

[Irgy]

Council of Esus let's you stay within hostile borders when you declare war, instead of being ejected out normally. So you can amass your forces right next to the cities you "want", which should be lightly defended since his troops are all fighting at the front. You then swap to Esus and declare war and take all the cities before he can even sanctuary to protect himself.

Hmm you're right, there it is in the manual too. I wonder, are you counted as running the religion for the purpose of these bonuses during the turn of anarchy? If not, a golden age could always provide an anarchy-free switch.

As for Rosier, it would be a pity, but it's always good to keep your options open and watch for opportunities. Furthermore, Esus gives instant access to Gibbon--in short, snowfall, without needing to bother about strength of will.

I hope to have Strength of Will anyway though surprisingly quickly. We'll see have that goes of course.

It's a ver interesting suggestion though anyway.

[Heisenberg]

I believe you would be considered to have swapped to Esus the turn you do it... I'll WB it to doublecheck...

Just tossing some ideas around~ So if the dogpile isn't ending terribly well you'd have that alternative route out :neenernee

[Irgy]

Some non-diplomatic updates;

WarriorKnight has Trade as well now. He's actually just about on a par with Thoth:


I've settled two new cities, though I've only got a screenshot for Vargstad. You can see the other site I settled a turn later in the top left corner though, where the pyre zombie is standing:


I've redirected the workboat that was heading to Kuldevind's fishes towards Vargstad's clams, and I'm building another workboat in the meantime. There's two workers in place at each city to improve

As you can also see, writing is in and I'm slowly teching through HBR to Trade. In theory I'm currently saving cash while I don't have libraries. Although since I'm not building any yet (being so far behind in other infrastructure) I'll no doubt end up churning out Trade at 100% in order to get the trade routes anyway, well before I finish any libraries anyway.

[Irgy]

My first message from Mardoc. Kind of, anyway - it went via WarriorKnight of course since we're still not in contact. I've made him pink (sorry, "magenta"), if nothing else that's the colour we have in FFHPBEM6. Everything more suitable is too hard to read.

[COLOR="DeepSkyBlue"]Irgy

Here's Mardoc's reply to your message. I intend to write my own reply to some of his concerns (mainly about the Bannor war) which I'll send to both of you but I'll just give you this so you can start writing your own reply.

WK[/COLOR]


[COLOR="Magenta"]WarriorKnight, I appreciate the connection. The following is to both you and Irgy; please don't pass it onto Nyktorion as I don't want to hurt his feelings.

I will, in the near future, be building ships with an actual military strength, and attempting to make formal in-game contact through that means. A Gryphon may be able to eat a defenseless workboat, but a Trireme or Pirate would just laugh at him.

Now, onto the main subject. I have no intention of helping Thoth defend against you; at the least you can expect me to be a friendly neutral. My reluctance to join in an attack does not extend to wishing that Thoth runs away with the game.

My concerns are twofold: first, I'm not really ready for a war, and I have an NAP until T140. I would be much happier planning a war for somewhere in the T170ish range. At the moment, I still have cities to settle, infrastructure to build, and some vital military techs to pick up - my buildable military consists of warriors, Drowns, and Cultists. With Thoth being mostly inland (I assume), that's not a very impressive force. I will shortly be able to build chariots and catapults, but not likely in sufficient numbers for anything but defense. Meanwhile, if Thoth chooses to counterattack, all but one of my cities are coastal, and I know he acquired 10 cultists from his world spell.

But second, I'm the vulnerable one if something, anything, goes wrong. If someone backs out, or Thoth has more military than expected, or our coordination is poor, I'm the logical target for Thoth from both a tactical and a strategic standpoint. I don't have a worldspell capable of rescuing me, I don't have a neighbor capable of defending me, and I am the sole cause of a potential 2-front situation. Even in the event I could somehow defend my cities, Thoth could deal a lot of damage to my economy just by Tsunaming my coves and coastal improvements away. It seems therefore that I would be bearing a disproportionate share of the risk, and a small share of the reward.

Finally, it occurs to me that you three could gain almost as much from a war between just me and Thoth as you can with a war in which you participate. This is a bit of a catch-22 situation, in that I have trouble thinking of any way you can prove your goodwill without me already being either in trouble or too late to pile in against Thoth. Similarly, if Thoth is crippled or knocked out, well, I'm probably next on the hitlist. I'm not the brightest bulb in the drawer, though; maybe you can think of something I'm missing that could give me confidence.

Frankly, what happened to the Bannor does not give me confidence. If Sir Yellow had been given support instead of invaded, he would still be holding out, and we wouldn't be nearly as worried about Thoth's capabilities. As he explained the situation to me, until the last moment he was expecting Elven reinforcements, not invaders. I acknowledge that none of you are likely to invade me without Thoth being taken out first, but even insufficient commitment to a war from your end would be enough to put me out of the game. Both of you are to my knowledge honorable, but it appears the bulk of the forces would have to come from Nyktorion in any event, so he has the whip hand.

In any event, I need to reply to Thoth with something concrete on the NAP front, tomorrow. If we can agree on a suitable date for operations in the event you persuade me, then I can at least keep my options open by proposing my NAP to end at a convenient time, and we can keep the discussion open. I'm willing to be persuaded, I'm just not willing to take all the risk myself.

- Mardoc[/COLOR]

WarriorKnight's sent a bunch of other emails too. And chats. Basically there's a very long discussion still going on about what to do. The email above and one I'm just now sending to WarriorKnight and Nyktorion below sum up the current state of the conversation fairly well though.

[COLOR="DarkOrchid"]So, what it looks like is WarriorKnight will be prepared by T135 (or at least may need to be), Nyktorion by T150, Mardoc by T170. I can be ready to make at least some contribution at an earlier date, but realistically I'd put myself in the T170 camp as well. I'm held up by development rather than tech. I can get something prepared earlier, and I can at least contribute some useful mana sooner, but realisically that is the sort of date at which I'll be able to make a significantly useful military contribution. At least it should be worth the wait though.

If Mardoc can't realistically contribute until T170, it might not really be that bad an idea for him to have an NAP until then.

The question is, what's Thoth going to have by T170? I can only imagine quite a lot. What do we want to do then in the mean time? Can WarriorKnight do any more than defend himself at T135? Can the two of you do more than just keep Thoth distracted and busy at T150? Will either of you have anything significantly better at T170? Personally I'd guess our combined peak is going to come at around that T170 mark, as much as I fear the consequences of waiting that long. But it depends a little on what each of you can do in that time.

I'm basically all in a muddle about what's best to do though on the whole. I'll just do my best to contribute as much as I can when needed, whatever we end up doing.[/COLOR]