Playoff Race - Week 13
Well the last two weeks I forgot about the usual playoff race watch, but better late than never. We've all got just one game left, and by my count every single team is still technically eligible for the playoffs. That's fun! This preview would have been more satsifying to do 2 weeks ago when my team was first overall, and then I went ahead and got crushed badly these past two weeks.
As a reminder, the division winners get the #1 and #2 seeds, and everybody else fills out positions 3-8 based first on record and second on points-for. If both of those are somehow tied, well I'll look up the rule then.
I'll put records in parenthesis and points-for in brackets. I'll number everyone too based on current overall standing. Here we go.
Clinched
1) NobleHelium (8-4) [1208.5]
2) Dtay (8-4) [1185.9]
3) scooter (8-4) [1183.4]
4) Twinkletoes (8-4) [1128.5]
If you're 8-4, you're in. Our defending champ Noble is the only person left still averaging a hair over 100 points/week, which is a pretty nice accomplishment in a 12-team league with these scoring settings. The top 3 here were all in the tank division too, so we finally know if a tank is stronger than a spearman.
Unless Something Crazy Happens
5) sunrise (6-6) [1106.9]
6) Gaspar (6-6) [1009.0]
The scenario that knocks sunrise out is completely ridiculous, but it does exist. Since I neglected to do the preview the last two weeks, I'll humor you all and spell out the scenario. These 3 things all need to happen:
* Gaspar wins OR outscores sunrise by 97
* 2 of the following happen OR all 3 happen if the first requirement fails to happen: Boldly wins AND outscores sunrise by 136, Cheater Hater wins AND outscores sunrise by 60, Wetbandit wins AND outscores sunrise by 80
* Sunrise loses to Twinkletoes
Numbers are rounded off because life's too short, and there's a decent chance Noble checks my work and finds a mistake. Anyway... I'm comfortable predicting sunrise is in.
Gaspar's scenario is similar to sunrise, but it's not nearly as secure because he trails three 5-7 teams in points-for. That means if he loses AND 3 of them win, he may be in trouble.
The good news for Gaspar: 1) Two 5-7 teams play each other meaning one is guaranteed a loss, which means the other two (Boldly and Cheater Hater) would have to win and 2) Boldly trails Gaspar by 40 points. So Gaspar looks pretty safe too.
If You're Into Wild Variance
7) Pindicator (5-7) [1127.5]
I'm going to put Pindicator in his own group because he's got the most interesting set of scenarios. If Pindicator wins, he's in due to his point total that eclipses even sunrise. If he loses, things can get interesting really quickly. First, he would be handing an important 6th win to Wetbandit, meaning at best he could snag the 8th and final playoff spot. That's a tenuous position to be in, because any one of these things happening would knock him out in that case, ranked roughly in order of likelihood:
* Boldy (5-7) beating Kuro
* Cheater Hater (5-7) beating Dtay
* DavidCorperial (4-8) beating Noble AND outscoring pindicator by 24.2
* Kuro beating Boldly AND outscoring pindicator by 97
(Probably) Just Win
8) Cheater Hater (5-7) [1047.1]
9) Wetbandit (5-7) [1026.8]
10) Boldly Going Nowhere (5-7) [970.2]
So this group seemed complicated to me at first glance, but they're really not. If they lose, they're almost certainly out. There exists a scenario where Cheater Hater or Wetbandit get in with a loss, but in both cases it requires 3 other losses. I suppose the same scenario exists for Boldly if he scores like 150 points this week or something like that.
Likewise, it's possible for any of these guys to miss with a win, but to put it simply it requires 9 or 10 teams getting to 6+ wins (10 is maximum possible) AND not making the top-8 in points-for. Given that Pindicator and Wetbandit play each other, the only one who could maybe see that scenario is probably Boldly if everything goes wrong. Keep in mind that a loss from 6-6 Gaspar [1009.0] puts him in the same group as these guys.
Needs Help
11) DavidCorperial (4-8) [1103.4]
12) Kuro (4-8) [1030.6]
DavidCorperial's scenario sounds more far-fetched than it probably is, but it's still big. His large points total is the thing that gives him a fighting chance. If he loses he's out, but let's assume he wins. Here's his scenario in that case:
* One of Pindicator/Wetbandit will lose. He would almost certainly pass Wetbandit. Pindicator's got a slight points advantage over him, but small enough to be plausible. So let's say this gets him to 10th place.
* He then needs a loss from Boldly AND Cheater Hater, at which point he would pass them on points.
Kuro's scenario is even tougher: based on points he needs Pindicator, Cheater Hater, and Boldly to lose AND needs a high scoring week to have a chance.
-------------------------
As a reference, here's the games in this last week listed roughly in order of how much the outcome could swing things. There's only one game between two teams with the playoffs definitely on the line.
Pindicator vs Wetbandit
Boldly vs Kuro
Dtay vs Cheater Hater
Noble vs DavidCorperial
scooter vs Gaspar
Sunrise vs Twinkletoes
Good luck and whatnot.
Well the last two weeks I forgot about the usual playoff race watch, but better late than never. We've all got just one game left, and by my count every single team is still technically eligible for the playoffs. That's fun! This preview would have been more satsifying to do 2 weeks ago when my team was first overall, and then I went ahead and got crushed badly these past two weeks.
As a reminder, the division winners get the #1 and #2 seeds, and everybody else fills out positions 3-8 based first on record and second on points-for. If both of those are somehow tied, well I'll look up the rule then.
I'll put records in parenthesis and points-for in brackets. I'll number everyone too based on current overall standing. Here we go.
Clinched
1) NobleHelium (8-4) [1208.5]
2) Dtay (8-4) [1185.9]
3) scooter (8-4) [1183.4]
4) Twinkletoes (8-4) [1128.5]
If you're 8-4, you're in. Our defending champ Noble is the only person left still averaging a hair over 100 points/week, which is a pretty nice accomplishment in a 12-team league with these scoring settings. The top 3 here were all in the tank division too, so we finally know if a tank is stronger than a spearman.
Unless Something Crazy Happens
5) sunrise (6-6) [1106.9]
6) Gaspar (6-6) [1009.0]
The scenario that knocks sunrise out is completely ridiculous, but it does exist. Since I neglected to do the preview the last two weeks, I'll humor you all and spell out the scenario. These 3 things all need to happen:
* Gaspar wins OR outscores sunrise by 97
* 2 of the following happen OR all 3 happen if the first requirement fails to happen: Boldly wins AND outscores sunrise by 136, Cheater Hater wins AND outscores sunrise by 60, Wetbandit wins AND outscores sunrise by 80
* Sunrise loses to Twinkletoes
Numbers are rounded off because life's too short, and there's a decent chance Noble checks my work and finds a mistake. Anyway... I'm comfortable predicting sunrise is in.
Gaspar's scenario is similar to sunrise, but it's not nearly as secure because he trails three 5-7 teams in points-for. That means if he loses AND 3 of them win, he may be in trouble.
The good news for Gaspar: 1) Two 5-7 teams play each other meaning one is guaranteed a loss, which means the other two (Boldly and Cheater Hater) would have to win and 2) Boldly trails Gaspar by 40 points. So Gaspar looks pretty safe too.
If You're Into Wild Variance
7) Pindicator (5-7) [1127.5]
I'm going to put Pindicator in his own group because he's got the most interesting set of scenarios. If Pindicator wins, he's in due to his point total that eclipses even sunrise. If he loses, things can get interesting really quickly. First, he would be handing an important 6th win to Wetbandit, meaning at best he could snag the 8th and final playoff spot. That's a tenuous position to be in, because any one of these things happening would knock him out in that case, ranked roughly in order of likelihood:
* Boldy (5-7) beating Kuro
* Cheater Hater (5-7) beating Dtay
* DavidCorperial (4-8) beating Noble AND outscoring pindicator by 24.2
* Kuro beating Boldly AND outscoring pindicator by 97
(Probably) Just Win
8) Cheater Hater (5-7) [1047.1]
9) Wetbandit (5-7) [1026.8]
10) Boldly Going Nowhere (5-7) [970.2]
So this group seemed complicated to me at first glance, but they're really not. If they lose, they're almost certainly out. There exists a scenario where Cheater Hater or Wetbandit get in with a loss, but in both cases it requires 3 other losses. I suppose the same scenario exists for Boldly if he scores like 150 points this week or something like that.
Likewise, it's possible for any of these guys to miss with a win, but to put it simply it requires 9 or 10 teams getting to 6+ wins (10 is maximum possible) AND not making the top-8 in points-for. Given that Pindicator and Wetbandit play each other, the only one who could maybe see that scenario is probably Boldly if everything goes wrong. Keep in mind that a loss from 6-6 Gaspar [1009.0] puts him in the same group as these guys.
Needs Help
11) DavidCorperial (4-8) [1103.4]
12) Kuro (4-8) [1030.6]
DavidCorperial's scenario sounds more far-fetched than it probably is, but it's still big. His large points total is the thing that gives him a fighting chance. If he loses he's out, but let's assume he wins. Here's his scenario in that case:
* One of Pindicator/Wetbandit will lose. He would almost certainly pass Wetbandit. Pindicator's got a slight points advantage over him, but small enough to be plausible. So let's say this gets him to 10th place.
* He then needs a loss from Boldly AND Cheater Hater, at which point he would pass them on points.
Kuro's scenario is even tougher: based on points he needs Pindicator, Cheater Hater, and Boldly to lose AND needs a high scoring week to have a chance.
-------------------------
As a reference, here's the games in this last week listed roughly in order of how much the outcome could swing things. There's only one game between two teams with the playoffs definitely on the line.
Pindicator vs Wetbandit
Boldly vs Kuro
Dtay vs Cheater Hater
Noble vs DavidCorperial
scooter vs Gaspar
Sunrise vs Twinkletoes
Good luck and whatnot.
![[Image: 58669-so-youre-telling-me-theres-a-c-Sm9B.gif]](https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/59892754/58669-so-youre-telling-me-theres-a-c-Sm9B.gif)
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