Serdoa Wrote:I see two possibilities:
1. zak is a WW and Injera too
2. TT is a WW and Injera too
If there are only these two possibilities, we have just catched a wolf!
(sorry couldn't resist
)
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Werewolf 7 game thread
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Meiz Wrote:If there are only these two possibilities, we have just catched a wolf! Thats fine Meiz. Tbh I knowed when I typed it that I probably will hear something like that but that is exactly what my thought was: No one except for a wolf should do that. Though I admit that this is weak evidence. Coupled with the zakalwe vote though and the general way of acting though... we'll see. @uberfish Place your vote on TT. I predict that he will stay up there if he does not show up. I am inclined to place it as well there, simply because I don't want to have the same issues as in other WW-games again (namely having half the players at the end being people who did not post more then 14 times in 900 posts...).
I have a really long post that I had just finished writing when I just saw all the votes on me. I'll go update that for the current comments soon, but first a quick comment on the no vote.
Serdoa Wrote:Both ideas sound crazy but I am wondering why else you would unvote with stating "I have a lot to catch up too". So, if you still have to catch up on something, is it wise to unvote? I mean it sounds like he only knows that there are several pages to read, not that there is anything worthwhile to switch his vote around. It's exactly as it says. I did have a lot to read, and skimming through it I saw some vigorous of defense of zakalwe and as well votes moving in and out of the zakalwe vote camp. I wasn't at all confident that my vote would be on zakalwe when I finished reading everything. Maybe unvoting was a rookie move, but I wasn't comfortable where it stood right then. Additionally, it had no relation to the scooter unvote. I had the message open while reading the thread, and delayed a bit in posting it. When I did I saw I had crossposted.
I really thought I'd have more time here but the consequence of staying up too late is oversleeping, apparently. Who knew?
 Stuff I've found interesting today: The interplay around the Rowain-zakalwe handbags (mostly by the other players,) the interplay around the scooter bandwagon defense (again, mostly by the others.) Oh and uberfish. As we're getting to the business end of proceedings I'll switch off Sareln. I guess at this point I don't like the idea of TT getting off the block without saying so much as anything. I can imagine a wolf email chain where TT is freaking out, another wolf is desperately trying to get him to post and TT is trying to craft something. (I've seen this sequence with newer wolves in both WW5 and WW6, btw.) While I'm not convinced of his guilt, he's done nothing to prove his innocence. So that's where I'm parking my vote until I see some evidence he's interested in contributing. Twinkletoes89 (Still like myself for mayor, naturally.)
I've got some dirt on my shoulder, can you brush it off for me?
Note: most of this was written before the votes came in on me.
When I started catching up on the thread, I realized I wasn't happy with the company I had been keeping with my vote on zakalwe. There were a number of players coming to his defense- too many to be wolves. Likewise, I had put my neck out with a vote, and it would be easy to try to keep justifying that vote (and intuition) to myself, or get tunnel vision. So I really did try to look at this with an open mind, hence the no vote. The first thing that really stood out to me while reading was this from Rowain: Rowain Wrote:Another point to think about: In WW6 as long as 1 or 2 wolves were high in the running the votes were widespread and not focused. As soon as 2 villagers led the run (myself, Selrahc) those shot far ahead of the others quite fast. I think this is a really good observation, and it makes me believe there's been some real pressure on a wolf. Two posts from zakalwe really stood out to me: zakalwe Wrote:The reason I think it's bad village play is because it establishes yourself as untrustworthy, which sets the stage perfectly for a later (or immediate) mislynch. That might be OK if it was guaranteed to give you a solid lead on a wolf, but it wasn't, not in any way, shape or form. So if you're a villager, you were lying to the village for no good reason zakalwe Wrote:If I don't feel like I have any other wolf leads before the end of the day, I will seriously be considering a "lynch all liars" policy vote. Uberfish feels like he is still trolling. If that is a deliberate strategy, then I think it is disruptive. Reading those just reactivated all the suspicions I've had for zakalwe. There's still this constant pressing of uber as the bad villager. The whole "voting against someone on a principle" seems very suspicious too me as well. Not that it's completely without merit, but it's easy to hide behind a "policy vote." To go over what made me suspicious of Zakalwe earlier: 1) I felt he was being aggressive, in some cases nit picking, early on. This raised my suspicions initially. It raised my suspicions because some of the 2) Jumping on Uber right away just struck me as wrong. 3) Blaming Uber for creating suspicion on himself while simultaneously creating more suspicion seems wrong. 4) Going after TT when he was guilty of the same activity Combining this with Rowain's quote above makes me suspicious that maybe the earlier pressure on Zak was holding some dogpiles in check. Now, there are reasons to discount all of these, and I still believe zakalwe is probably a villager- individually, I don't think anyone is likely a wolf right now with what I've seen. But I can't ignore my suspicions, so I'm going to move my vote back to zakalwe.
I've been thinking while making and eating dinner. My hunch on Uberfish being a wolf is growing stronger. That quote of his that I included in my previous post, where he constructed an apparent contradiction, was a huge scumtell for me personally, and really set my alarm bells ringing. It was exactly the kind of comment that I correctly called him on in WW5.
Sure, a villager Uberfish could possibly try this gambit, though it seems very strange. But looking beyond that, he isn't really acting as a villager. Knowing how intelligent he is, his reasoning has generally been poor. In his gambit post, the part about not wanting to play wolf again rang true to me. So how would he react to being a wolf for the third time in four games? Not by ragequitting, perhaps, but by trying a gambit, for fun? Possibly. We know he is devious and can pull off gambits, as he proved in WW5. As Ichabod pointed out, when Uberfish "revealed" his gambit, he listed three kinds of suspicious behavior he'd be looking for, which together cover all possible behaviors. He then listed four suspects, without giving any reasons at all. When pressed for specific reasons, he said everybody should think for themselves. When it comes to articulating the reasons for suspecting people, he has done a poor job. My suspicion towards Uberfish is also compatible with TT being a wolf, since Uberfish did not include him on his suspect list. That is curious, since he later emphasized how TT and I reacted similarly. So why was I on his list of suspects, but not TT? For that matter, why was anyone on his suspect list? We have only been invited to speculate, so we can fill in our own reasons. I'd be very interested to hear what others think of this. (Seeing Injera's post in the preview, I'm guessing he won't like it.) Am I the only one besides Catwalk who is thinking along these lines? Anyway, I want to follow my intuition here so I'll go ahead and vote Uberfish. As noted, TT is my current fallback.
If you know what I mean.
I'm still on re-read #1 on page 15, but wanted to chime in already. First of all, what's with all these "I believe he probably is a villager, but I'll still vote him" - comments?
 Based on what I've seen so far, I'm already getting quite confident on the innocence of: Zakalwe, Serdoa, Ichabod. Every post so far is in line with the way they have played as villagers so far. I'm trusting them quite a bit already, which hopefully won't come back to bite me My "could very well be a villager" list states: Catwalk, Rowain, Mr. Nice Guy, Roland. Again they seem to be in line of the way I've seen them play and I can't really find much sinister thoughts. I know the Catwalk part will raise many eye browns, but that's just the honest way I feel about his game so far. I still like TT up there and I don't see Zak's theory regarding uberfish impossible at all. Third candidate that has really raised my suspicions is... surprise surprise, Lewwyn. He has quite a lot of posts but the general feel I'm getting is that he is replacing contributions with humor. And everyone expects that on day 1 so he gets away with it easily. I also find it really strange that the biggest band-wagoner ever lived suspects Sareln because of bandwagoning, on day 1. Serdoa, it surprised me that you had listed Lewwyn as "pretty sure innocent" (and he was the only one up there). I get a big villager vibe from you, so could you explain in more detail what makes you think so? Just because he acts the way we expect him to act?
Sorry, I forgot to add this. Lewwyn also talked about TT in post, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=126
""I also think this makes sense. I do think normal TT is more lively more risk taking, and possibly more inclined to guess rather than use post count as a measure of a wolf. I will consider TT a suspect now, though, again, I'll wait on the lynch vote."" So I find it a bit strange that he left his vote on Sareln and went to sleep. This is suspicious of course only if TT is guilty. |
