WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[Gaspar]

A few comments.
a) If we assume 4 scum left then we have at the moment 3 mislynches left (=4th loses)

b) Given how many missed the Mattimeo-lynchI am far more willing to lynch any of those than one of the Mattimeo-voters.

c) It is also interesting that with the exception of Tasunke evryone who missed the Matt-lynch also missed the thestick-lynch.

Yeah, I don't disagree that non-Matt voters are probably a good place to start tomorrow, even being among that group. But if we just go down the list, we're definitely going to lose. I'd bet everything I've ever owned (in fairness, not that much) that there are scum on the Matt voters list. Scum only completely reveal themselves on a lynch when they have nowhere left to turn and with presumably 4 left, it is way too early for that.

[pindicator]

Gaspar and Pindicator seemed to work against the Mattimeo wagon. Jkaen was hesitant to get on.

Cause I thought he was village. But with this game I've made such crappy reads I didn't post that because I wanted to see how the last push went without my butterfingers all over it. TBH, I was trying to decide who looked scummier between you and waterbat when Mattimeo flipped village. But that didn't happen.

Just how did you guess so well that Mattimeo was scum with about an hour to go, by the way? It's not like you were on the earlier Mattimeo push. And it's not like you've never bussed a pair of teammates to give yourself deep cover before. But you weren't just voting Matt - you were cheerleading hard for it. Waterbat beside you. What was the tell?

Taking the tinfoil hat off now -- Twinkletoes, you've got some company! -- but that last hour just feels too convenient to my liking.


@Catwalk - thank you for cherry-picking data. Yes, I've been awful at picking wolves this game. I've also voted to lynch you and sareln. I'm assuming those are both bad reads as well. So if you want to lynch me for being wrong, that's your vote.


@Jkaen - it was more than that. You were defending my day 1 voting when the crowd was heaviest against me. I'll find that quote if you like; I thought about putting it up in middle of yesterday's craziness but I didn't want to muddle stuff even more if it wasn't necessary. Still, I agree with Rowain: why the switch?


Spreadsheet won't be updated until well after day 5 starts. I'm still only through post 1800. Don't rely on me for this, though; if someone else has the time they are more than capable of doing the same thing.

[novice]

Just how did you guess so well that Mattimeo was scum with about an hour to go, by the way? It's not like you were on the earlier Mattimeo push. And it's not like you've never bussed a pair of teammates to give yourself deep cover before. But you weren't just voting Matt - you were cheerleading hard for it. Waterbat beside you. What was the tell?

I was on the earlier Mattimeo push. I started it when I picked up a scumtell from Mattimeo's TT vote, and I followed up with other tells later in that push, prior to actually voting him.

As for the cheerleading, if you're going to outvote the scum and fencesitters you have to do some pushing. See day one.

[pindicator]

Don't worry novice, with how awful my reads have been this game, me attacking you has to be a sure sign of your village status.

[Ichabod]

I was looking at the Pindicator spreadsheet for day 1, in the time of the Mattimeo bandwagon forming. I'd point post 239 as the start of it, at least the useful part of it, because the 2 votes for Mattimeo before were from thestick and Serdoa (who later moved to thestick).

Post 239 is Pindicator putting the second vote on Mattimeo. He was quickly followed by Sareln, Serdoa, Uber (all villagers) and TT.

On post 252, Mattimeo reveal his role. The first vote after that is Mattimeo going for thestick, on post 256.

Then there are two suspicious movements to Bigger, being Injera (257) and Jkaen (265). But all this movement is not very revealing. Bigger already had Rowain and Lewwyn on them, as far as I can tell.

As we can see, the very first Mattimeo bandwagon was half villagers (uber, serdoa, sareln), a wolf (thestick) and two non-confirmed, Pindicator and TT. I think this gives villager vibes to them. As we can see, Mattimeo was important for the mafia for some reason, because thestick was sacrificed in his place.

The Tasunke vote for thestick in post 248 has to be studied further. I have to see if Tasunke already suspected thestick. Because it was just a little bit before the claim by Mattimeo (after all the Mattimeo votes on day 1), so the wolves could have already decided to sacrifice thestick when that happened.

Lewwyn, Rowain, Jkaen and Injera, as the starters of some sorts in the Bigger bandwagon, also deserve a checking.

Now is time to reread day 1. The spreadsheet is good, but reading the day again will probably be very revealing, due t all we know now.

[Selrahc]

Back online. Feel free to go after me with both barrels. I'm going to need a little time reading up on the thread to properly contribute, but I'm back on the active roster and willing to be called to account for anything.

[Catwalk]

pindicator, you made an anti-town vote before and it was discussed. You said I had a really good point about about giving scum more voting power that way. You do the exact same thing again, and make a comment that you were glad you didn't vote. I point out you did the same again, and you take great offense. You seem to be attacking everyone right now, smells to me like a wolf trying to fake frustration.

Just in case I die tonight, I agree that novice may well be a deep cover wolf. And given how many times he'd been wolf, I can see him pulling something like that for fun. That should not be investigated until given reason to assume so, though. Right now we have every reason to assume he's simply a good villager, no reason to derail discussion with tinfoil strategies. He's a little full of himself right now, but he deserves a little bit of glory for having succesfully hunted down two wolves.

[Twinkletoes89]

I do have some agreement with Pindicator's thought that the late swing and lynch of Mattimeo was almost too 'convenient'

It was such a massive and (to an extent) unprompted swing that I just can't help but think that it may well have been a bus.

I was on the earlier Mattimeo push. I started it when I picked up a scumtell from Mattimeo's TT vote, and I followed up with other tells later in that push, prior to actually voting him.

As for the cheerleading, if you're going to outvote the scum and fencesitters you have to do some pushing. See day one.

I wouldn't use Day one and the last day as examples for your cheerleading Novice, as we now know that Day One was a bus and that there is at least the possibility that the last day could have been too.

[Tasunke]

I think that novice basically deserves the credit for the "last minute" Mattimeo push.

Now whether that was to save one of qqqq/Injera, or if it was to gain deep cover, (or of course just a villager thing to do), who can say.

Now I DO think that Twinkletoes looks a lot more innocent in his paranoia, but even he is not 100% cleared by this.

So as far as Novice and TT, likely village, but yes potential wolves. And certainly they BOTH get credit for Mattimeo's lynch today, in whatever ways that will prove later.

(perhaps TT is innocent and novice is deep cover ... but novice is way too helpful for me to want to lynch him anywhere near now, at least for now ;P)

[Tasunke]

I wouldn't use Day one and the last day as examples for your cheerleading Novice, as we now know that Day One was a bus and that there is at least the possibility that the last day could have been too.

crossposted with you in my last post. I agree that both could have been busses.