Politics Discussion Thread (Heated Arguing Warning)

[T-hawk]

I put the 2020 Presidential election at Lean D

It entirely depends on the candidate.  The Dem base turns out to vote based on identity. They need an ethnic candidate to do that and that's why it didn't happen in 2016. Kamala Harris or Cory Booker can be the Dems' next Obama. Biden or Sanders or Warren can't do any better than Hillary. Trump is best at beating old white people since he can freely fling all his insults.

[MJW (ya that one)]

I put the 2020 Presidential election at Lean D

It entirely depends on the candidate.  The Dem base turns out to vote based on identity.  They need an ethnic candidate to do that and that's why it didn't happen in 2016.  Kamala Harris or Cory Booker can be the Dems' next Obama.  Biden or Sanders or Warren can't do any better than Hillary.  Trump is best at beating old white people since he can freely fling all his insults.

I agree that the DEM primary adds a lot of uncertainty but it's still Lean D. DACA/wall's hard-deadline now being June 2020 is bad news for GOP because it will ether let them double-down on identity politics if they pick a non-white candidate or give a white candidate a free hand to pivot to the center while minorities still vote for him or her due to DACA/wall. This made me bump it up from Tilt D-->Lean D. I put it at Tilt D because Clinton failed to campaign in WI, MI, PA due to wanting to avoid becoming a lame duck, messing up the math and she would have won under 2020 demographics. Biden and Sanders would do much better than her too. She was unusually weak for many reasons. But the biggest one was it was obvious that she would be the nominee after spending excessive money on her Senate race. She failed to win the rigged primary against Obama but only because her campaign manager messed up the math, thinking Super Tuesday would KO Obama, so it would obvious she would be the 2016 nominee. The GOP was handed a 10 year headstart in that race. They almost blew it because her weakness induced a clown car but not quite. This is why people go away after losing (Gore) because they don't want to give the other party a headstart.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Maduro @ 1/3 chance to live at PredictIt when he was @ 4/5 is a really bad sign. I'm pretty sure that Russia while bail him out while the West doesn't to anything because the left is too craven to risk a proxy war with Russia and the right is introverted thesedays. If he does lose it will be because of that asinine sham election. 70% is obviously fake and pretending it isn't fake makes you look foolish and weak. He should have not had election or had election, win 100% and say it isn't fake.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Northam refuses to resign. PredictIt has flipped and he's favored to hang on. Now usually the other party is eager to impeach but not here because the GOP doesn't want the more liberal Fairfax to get in and then run for re-election. In other states this doesn't happen because the Governor and Vice-Governor share a ticket so the Vice-Governor would be badly damaged (for endorsing the ex-governor by running with him) and the GOP would be okay with taking out Northam. But not here because Fairfax and Northam don't like eachother; Fairfax didn't even appear on the Democratic brochure out of the DC area. This situation is caused by the dumb system of not allowing the Governor to pick his running mate. GOP would be eager to impeach which would induce Northam to resign.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Fairfax is now "leading" Northam on PredictIt .

[MJW (ya that one)]

Northam is safe now that AG has admitted blackface too. DEMs are too cowardly to do the right thing and will privately encourage to hang on. They want to avoid Governor Cox at all costs to avoid having to take out an incumbent governor with a Democratic President (if think it's Lean D they think it's Likely D) in a midterm. You can see it in his cabinet not abandoning him-- unlike the governor the cabinet has a future that the DEMs would be able to attack. If they were serious they would attack the cabinet too and they would ditch Northam because they have a future. This would stop Northam from governing and might him resign. Risk-free 20% in a month returns on PredictIt (you can only bet $850 so you get $170).

[Bobchillingworth]

They're jerking each other off over the radio on NPR speculating on the top three officials resigning simultaneously in VA and handing the government to Republicans, but it's an transparent media fantasy:

* None of the three have indicated any interest in resigning. Northam has resisted pressure so far and his position is now stronger, Fairfax has consistently denied the allegation against him, and Herring obviously brought up his incident unbidden to minimize the blowback of someone else embarrassing him first; there's no need to minimize anything if your response will be to resign regardless.  

* There is no applicable political mechanism to force any of them out of office, and none of them are facing legal action, which limits the pressure on them.  

* Even if they wanted to resign, they'd have every reason to stagger their departures so as to ensure Democratic replacements were lined up.  


As for the November election... that's a long way off, nine months is plenty of time for the current administration to bury "scandals" under dozens or hundreds of actions guaranteed to outrage and energize the Democratic base.


Also:  

DEMs are too cowardly to do the right thing and will privately encourage to hang on

I am certain that many Virginia voters are not convinced that the "right thing" is for their elected officials to resign en masse and be replaced by the party they overwhelmingly rejected a few months ago.

[Mardoc]

the top three officials resigning simultaneously in VA and handing the government to Republicans, but it's an transparent media fantasy:

Yeah, it would be a great show but it's never going to happen.

I am certain that many Virginia voters are not convinced that the "right thing" is for their elected officials to resign en masse and be replaced by the party they overwhelmingly rejected a few months ago.

Which is also why MJW is wrong about "Now usually the other party is eager to impeach".  People lost a lot of confidence in the GOP for impeaching Clinton for something that was during his term and was a crime but wasn't a particularly bad crime.  Imagine how it would work out for something that was 20 years ago and isn't even a crime.

I think technically they could impeach the governor over anything (although I haven't read the Virginia constitution to be sure it works like the federal constitution)...but only if they're fine with losing elections for the next generation.

Now, Republicans would be fools if they failed to bring it up in the next VA election.  However, they failed to find these things for the last election, so I have every confidence they can fail again.

[Bobchillingworth]

 However, they failed to find these things for the last election, so I have every confidence they can fail again.

I think it's dubious, but I've read speculation that this week's revelations are the product of political machinations from within the VA Democratic Party. The theory goes something like Fairfax leaked the yearbook photo in order to steal the governorship, Herring immediately called on Northam to resign to position himself for 2022 (VA governors are limited to a single term), Northam's people revived the allegation against Fairfax both for revenge and to strengthen the governor's hand, and then Herring somehow realized that his political rivals were about to hit him as well.

I suppose that could explain why the Republicans didn't bring up any of this four months ago when they were trailing in the polls and presumably desperate for any dirt they could dig up, but it reads too much like the cute script of a TV drama.

[MJW (ya that one)]

If the GOP was overwhelmingly rejected the DEMs would have won the House and Senate. Gerrymandering actually worked against them because the map was drawn in such away to maximize gains not make to hard to flip.

DEMs would need GOP help to stagger resignations because the GOP controls the House and Senate. Such help is unlikely to be granted.

Being replaced by the GOP isn't a problem too because Cox is a moderate republican. If it's a problem to hand over power to a moderate republican then republicans are unacceptable and Northam's 2017 campaign is invalid because he ran a bi-partisan campaign. Once running invalid campaigns is allowed in everything is allowed in and it doesn't make sense to talk about "right things".

I don't know what would happen next elections but this won't help the DEMs. Some irate DEMs have threatened to run 3rd party through.

I've found out that Northam has changed his story and resigning now would be an admission of guilt. AG's admission came after the press conference so I was wrong about that. Bob's theory is probably right.

Mardoc, I was assuming that the DEMs want to impeach because that was before the Fairfax story broke. Northam is bad news for them. I agree that it would be suicidal for the GOP to even attempt impeachment without DEM help. They would lose just like with the Clinton impeachment. Now that the DEMs would be stuck with Fairfax anyway there's no motivation to impeach Northam and that silly situation of the other party not wanting to impeach doesn't happen in the first place.

Impeachment is a "poltical question" so the legislature can do what they want because Northam would not be able to drag it to Court.

For the 2019 elections the GOP doesn't need to "find" anything and for 2021 elections I'm sure that the DEMs will check the yearbooks/school parties. As for Fairfax that was unfindable because the accuser only contacted left-wing stuff until the Northam story broke.