YACWB: Bob founds the Ashen Veil with a rescued Savant and builds Stigmata on the Unborn with his great-scientist. Owns up to it. I inform him that Tredje's units have left Amurite lands and are returning to Clan lands. I expect there to be at least one more clan city in the fog. Bob requests that I let people know that he popped the Savant, and isn't a super-teching power. I give a mild agreement to that.
(1:41:57 PM) Sareln: Is that Veil/Stigmata combo your work :P
(1:42:03 PM) BobChllingsworth: maaaaaan
(1:42:12 PM) BobChllingsworth: this turn took forever to arrive in my inbox
(1:42:27 PM) BobChllingsworth: you have no idea.
(1:42:34 PM) Sareln: haha
(1:42:46 PM) Sareln: did you pop a savant or am I really that far behind? :P
(1:42:55 PM) BobChllingsworth: savant :P
(1:43:09 PM) BobChllingsworth: and the great scientist was luck- was just going to settle him in Jubilee
(1:43:56 PM) BobChllingsworth: luck in the sense that I happened to be three turns from getting my first great person when I "rescued" the savant
(1:44:18 PM) Sareln: ah
(1:44:29 PM) Sareln: incidentally, Tredje appears to be abandoning the choke
(1:44:35 PM) Sareln: his remaining units are returning to his lands
(1:44:40 PM) BobChllingsworth: cool
(1:45:25 PM) BobChllingsworth: hey, I'm happy to loan you entropy mana as soon as we have a route, if you'll give me metamagic later on
(1:45:42 PM) Sareln: entropy I gives rust?
(1:45:42 PM) BobChllingsworth: figure you might enjoy having rust to deal with the melee clan
(1:45:47 PM) Sareln: I'm definitely interested in that
(1:45:53 PM) BobChllingsworth: yeah :D
(1:46:19 PM) Sareln: oh, I proc'd a free carnival in my cap
(1:46:24 PM) Sareln: thank you wandering Balsarephs I suppose...
(1:46:25 PM) Sareln: :P
(1:46:34 PM) BobChllingsworth: haha, there's an event that does that?
(1:46:40 PM) Sareln: yeah
(1:46:44 PM) Sareln: 3 choices
(1:46:47 PM) Sareln: +1 Happy for 10 turns
(1:46:53 PM) Sareln: +1 Happy for 20 turns, pay 10 GP
(1:47:09 PM) Sareln: +1 Happy for 10 Turns, gain free Carnival (only available if you haven't built one already naturally...)
(1:47:18 PM) BobChllingsworth: nice
(1:48:23 PM) BobChllingsworth: hey if anyone asks you who got the shrine, it would be nice if you said that you weren't sure- but if they know it's me, feel very free to tell them I got it with a savant, and not super incredible teching powers
(1:48:42 PM) BobChllingsworth: this would be a really stupid thing for me to get dogpiled over
(1:49:00 PM) Sareln: 'kk
The mob attack odds calculator looks really fascinating. Something I've always wondered: how much does the order of attackers matter? I.e., would the combined odds of victory for 5 warriors change if you were to attack with the C1 warrior last instead of first?
Mygdala Wrote:The mob attack odds calculator looks really fascinating. Something I've always wondered: how much does the order of attackers matter? I.e., would the combined odds of victory for 5 warriors change if you were to attack with the C1 warrior last instead of first?
In this case, yes. I had 7 warriors, but only one with C1. If I attack first with the C1 warrior, I get cumulative 74.5% odds. If I attack last with it, I get 71% odds, or a 3.5% reduction. Notice, however, that that means I expect to preserve my C1 warrior 71% of the time, as opposed to just 0.8% of the time if I attack with him first. A player needs to weigh the balance between preserving his experienced units versus using them to swing odds. Since in this particular case, it was the entire game in the balance, I think it was right to attack with the C1 warrior first.
With the generous help of Cyneheard I have added in functionality for first-strikes and first-strike chances. I'm having too much fun with this coding project.
I am slowly working through the writeup of the choke. Hopefully I'll have that for you all come the weekend.
In other news, the Clan has parked themselves on a hill that doesn't matter across the river from the copper source. I am going to get a total of 4 workers and show off a tactics trick I hope.
[Size="5"]Turns 54 - 75, Dealing with the Choke[/SIZE]
I think I promised you all a play-by-play of the choke at some point... why do I make these promises again? Going through my picture archives, I don't have pictures of every single turn, but I'll try and give a good description of my thoughts as I played through this part of the game. If you see combat odds offered in this writeup, thank the new combat calculator that Cyneheard helped me put together. It is very useful. I promise I'll release it someday, probably after I work in maximum damage (attacker retreats if he's done maximum damage). I'm sure that If I release it in my thread I can trust the lurkers to not leak it to someone I'm playing a game against until after those games are over, I just don't like releasing unfinished work. During the actual playing out of these turns, I just had to play things by feel.
There were several ideas that I was hoping to stick with through the course of the choke.
Do not lose sight of the long game.
Make sure that units which die do so for a reason.
Deny Kills to the Clan, do not give units away.
Keep Tredje's units divided if possible.
Present Tredje with opportunities to make mistakes.
Keep Tredje's units divided if possible.
Risky Battles (Traps)
Passive Play (Sense of Security)
Get a 2nd worker for roading schenanigans.
Alright, Let's Begin!
Turn 54:
[SPOILER]
The beginning of hostilities. Tredje sends me a nonsense role-play e-mail which you've already seen. Two goblin archers enter from north and south. I write up my list of goals, and decide that there's really not much to say to Tredje from now on until I feel stable/comfortable. FWIW that means bronze weapons, and adepts along with floating eyes for intel etc. It's a long way off at this point basically
I have the warrior that spotted the southern goblin archer scouting towards clan land, he's being chased by lizardmen so I stick to defensive terrain and cross my fingers.
Turn Pictures
[SPOILER]
[/SPOILER]
Turn 55:
Tredje's goblin archers move to occupy defensive terrain. I decide that my life is easier if I can keep him off my hills, so I move warriors forward onto the hill I had just finished chopping for settler and warrior hammers. The odds of Tredje being able to successfully kill my C2 warrior are bad, but not horrible (about 35%) I doubt he'll get greedy, since if he does, the other 3 warriors in the stack can clean him up. I would love that trade at this point, since it would leave only the one remaining Goblin Archer making the choke far less dangerous. (plus the goblin rider if it ever shows up).
Turn Pictures
[SPOILER]
[/SPOILER]
Turn 56:
I finally meet Serdoa, I send him the diplo you've seen earlier in the thread. Tredje moves his goblin archer off the forested hill, my warrior happily fill the space in behind him. His odds are even worse now to clear that top defender (about 27.7%), even though he can cover his archer if it survives, I don't think he'll take that chance. If he does, so much the better. Why not roll the dice Tredje? What's the worse that can happen, those units were free!
Notice that at the end of turn I will finish a settler. I am also moving these warriors out to escort the settler to the copper location entitled mining hills. I've decided to settle on the hill for the extra defense boni, and the fact that I can't totally scuttle my long term development to get the copper NOW. There's no rush, since BW is a ways off.
Turn Pictures
[SPOILER]
[/SPOILER]
Turn 57:
Tredje moves his archers to start pillaging improvements. I let them go since the settler is away and the terrain is bad for me to attempt a mobbing (that and I don't have the warriors yet!). It'll be straight warrior spam from the capital from here on out until The choke subsides. My scouting warrior has suvived 2 lizardmen at this point, and I promote him to F1 after the first battle, and C1 after the second. I'm hoping to place him on the hill to the north to provide intel on incoming clan movements. That wolfrider is still unaccounted for, and I need to know if Tredje has decided to commit it to the fight.
Turn Pictures
[SPOILER]
[/SPOILER]
Turn 58:
Tredje has split his archers, moving one towards my settling party. He's out of luck and can't beat me to the my chosen city site, so if he wants to attack that stack he's welcome to. His odds would be about 30% with that archer, not nearly good enough since even winning the fight means getting cleaned out by the stack on the next turn. The archer's chance of a flawless victory being about 1.09%. I move my scouting warrior onto the hill and see no clan units. I think for a brief moment that hopes beyond hope that Tredje has only committed the two archers.
I also take a picture of my capital this turn, showing off 16 hammers / turn for 1 turn warriors. This is due to chop overflow, and I plan to milk it for all it's worth. I've decided to starve the city down to size 5, since Tredje will be pillaging its happy resources anyways, and it lets me squeeze more hammers while that citizen is still productive.
Turn Pictures
[SPOILER]
[/SPOILER]
Turn 59:
Tredje's Wolf Rider comes out of the fog and kills my short lived picked. Shame he didn't get a chance to heal up. If he had, the wolf rider would have only had ~33%/26% odds on the warrior (+50% from terrain, +50% from promotions, +up to 25% fortify bonus). Would have given me solid vision. The goblin rider gets enough XP from the battle to take shock, which is going to make it even more difficult to deal with. Probably the worst piece of luck that happened to me during this choke, though there's another that comes a close second.
Turn Pictures
[SPOILER]
[/SPOILER]
Turn 60:
I settle Udenerat. Way behind the other players, but hey I was paranoid and you know what? It's been well justified at this point. I've been talking with Iskender a bit and Tredje blames the breakdown of our land negotiations for this, but honestly I think he was just looking for an excuse. I bargained hard, gave him plenty of time to think about other offers and counteroffer, and, well, so it goes. I don't begrudge him it beyond him trying to make me look like I deserve it. If there wasn't enough land for 5 cities for me, I wasn't about to negotiate a pair of deals that only gave me 4 cities total. The land between me and Iskender isn't rich enough to be worth fighting over, but all this green between me and Tredje is at least worth getting into a fight over.
I hesitate for only a moment before settling Udenarat. I know that settling on the copper will guarentee me my copper the instant I finish BW, but at the same time it positions the city in a horrible manner. Eventually my inner micro-mind wins out, hopefully I haven't shot myself in the foot too badly here.
Around my capital, the archers continue to merrily pillage my stuff. With the arrival of the wolf rider I start pulling warriors back into my capital. No need to lose this because I got careless. As long as my warriors stay on hills and forests, the wolf rider should not be able to hit and fade, leaving it exposed post-combat. This will be the guiding principle behind my warrior movements from here on out. The wolf rider can win any one fight, but if he leave it exposed, post combat, I'll try and kill it.
A Barb city is created to my south. I'll be able to use it as a training ground after the choke is broken, but I'll need to eventually hit and raze it since it conflicts with the dotmap and I need all the city sites I can get!
Turn Pictures
[SPOILER]
[/SPOILER]
Turn 61:
Barbarian goblins from the south, just what I need oh well. When it rains it pours I guess.
Turn Pictures
[SPOILER]
[/SPOILER]
Turn 64:
There's a gap in my records here. But I'm almost absolutely certain that I didn't lose any warriors to Tredje (it would have shown up in the combat log), therefore, I don't know how he got the XP to give his wolf rider combat 3, but it was the last thing I needed at the time. This is the 2nd worst thing, right behind the wolf rider coming out of the fog just as my picket got to the hill, it's all roses from here though, honest!
Tredje has centered his archers to split my two cities off from each other. My garrison in Udenerat is sufficient to hold off anything Tredje has, with base warriors getting +75% bonuses, more if he's forced to cross the river. I'm letting Udenerat grow, though I think in hindsight this is a mistake, I should just be slowbuilding the worker since that'll be the most useful and the capital can always make warriors.
Turn Pictures
[SPOILER]
[/SPOILER]
Turn 65:
After producing a final warrior, you can see that my finances are in bad shape from all the unit upkeep. I decide that I have enough warriors and just focus on building an addition worker in the capital. This'll bring my worker count to 2 and let me do roading schnanigans when the time comes, extending the range of my warriors to cover the cows, silk, and hill tiles with a road one north of the capital.
Tredje has moved in a way that suggests he wants to try and take Udenerat. The lizardman has moved off the lair and also wants to try his luck. My Garrison has a C2 Warrior and a C1 warrior. There's a road on the tile that the additional warriors are stationed on, so they can move back into the city immediately when needed.
The worker is roading, because even the 3 move goblin rider can't reach them this turn and I need the commerce and connection badly. More barbarians have come from the south as well. Tredje actually can't see my workers, so perhaps here's crossing my fingers and hoping he doesn't realize they're out roading.
Turn Pictures
[SPOILER]
[/SPOILER]
Turn 66:
Yup, Tredje's definitely gunning for Udenerat. Probably hoping to come right after the lizardman. I don't think his odds are good, given the river and other base defense (+115% to base warriors with no promos if he doesn't cross the river) so I'm feeling very save. The terrain is definitely favorable here, I don't know how I would defend this city if it was on the flatground and the other side of the river!
I move my capital garrison out to cover the worker. Tredje can hit that square, but only with his wolf rider, and if he does so, he'll probably lose the wolfie to the horde of warriors there. That's only if he sees it too, though he can probably infer where it's gone if he remembers where the worker was last turn.
Turn Pictures
[SPOILER]
[/SPOILER]
Turn 68:
Another turn skipped (67). The lizardman suicides on Udenarat and my warrior goes to 9/10 XP. Tredje has brought a C2 warrior to the fight as well, only the 2nd unit that has cost him anything to build :P. His wolf rider did move to threaten the worker/warrior stack, but moved to the jungle to stay out of range of the capital. I take my warriors and retire to the capital to fend off barbs and wait for my 2nd worker to finish. If he gets careless with that wolf rider, I hope that 7 warriors will be enough (My odds for 7 warriors, one with C1 versus that wolf rider with river bonus is approximately 75% cumulative).
My great sage is born this turn, I'm going to use him to bulb KotE. My capital is pillaged so an Academy would not pay for itself within 30 turns, and I'm forced to use a small strategic window for my decisions inside of the choke. While I need to make sure to not mortgage the future, it does me no good to make long term plays if they end up getting me killed!
Turn Pictures
[SPOILER]
[/SPOILER]
Turn 69:
Use the sage to bulb KotE ~ 375 beakers or about 17 turns of max research for me. I spend 11 gpt at 100% and gain 14 gpt at 0%, so that's roughly 30 turns of research all in one go. Worth it with me in this box/corner right now.
Barb warrior moving against the capital.
Wolfrider chilling out near the site of my former plantations. He could hit and fade the farm next turn for no cost to himself and hurting me again... oh well.
Turn Pictures
[SPOILER]
[/SPOILER]
Turn 71:
Skip T70. My worker finishes, and Tredje did pillage that Farm. BW is due in 4 turns (2 researching and 2 gathering gold) If that wolf-rider is still there when I get the turn, I'm going to go for it. 7 warriors should be able to do it right?
Turn Pictures
[SPOILER]
[/SPOILER]
Turn 72:
Boom! I kill the wolf rider at the price of only 3 warriors. I use my two workers to lay down a combat road and then move out. I lead with my C1 warrior and win with my 4th warrior with 3 warriors left in reserve. I was really wavering about whether or not to take these odds. Eventually I flipped a coin, it came up heads so I went for it. I want to say that I was super confident, that I had a steely demeanor and resolve, but seriously that really took it out of me for the day. The sense of Euphoria when the 4th warrior succeeded (on about a 30% battle) was a pretty huge rush. Tredje's other units are encamped on a lizard lair north of Udenerat, but with the Wolf-rider out of the picture, the mobility of this choke is dead in the water. He'll need to keep his units together to keep them safe, but if he keeps them together than I can rebuild my pillaged territory.
Turn Pictures
[SPOILER]
[/SPOILER]
Turn 73:
Tredje moves onto the copper. I expect him to fortify there, since his Goblins will have good odds unless I move across the river, giving him an opportunity to harrass the city or force me to wait many turns to remove them. I'm working on a worker in Udenerat and a Warrior in Cevedes. I need to replenish the warriors lost if I want to mob the remaining units performing the choke successfully. It's about this time that I also start developing the combat calculator, since I become quite curious as to what my odds for success actually were. Just how lucky did I get?
Turn Pictures
[SPOILER]
[/SPOILER]
Turn 74:
I get the travelling Balsareph Carnival in the capital. Free Carnival and +1 happy for 10 turns? Yes please.
Turn Pictures
[SPOILER]
[/SPOILER]
Turn 75:
Rather suprisingly, Tredje moves off the copper and onto the Forested Hill. I'm not sure that's the best move for him, since it means that once I get to 4 workers, he can't prevent me from hooking up the copper and getting bronze weapons to defend it all in the same turn, while also giving myself the river bonus to defend with. If his goal is to deny me copper, he needs to stay on the tile. If he's going to try and harass me some more, he needs to do something other than sit on that hill tile. Sure I can't remove him from it, but I don't have to, I just re-improve my capital and push for swords, copper, and adepts. If he's got reenforcements coming, they'd have to be something really special to give up the momentum of the choke for.
I start to grow Cevedes back to size 6 and move to repair my happy/commerce resources. I need those plantations up post-haste if we're to start a proper recovery.
Have another turn bundle. Did you miss me? I'll try to do a strategic update in the near future (closer to the near future than when I promised the choke writeup, of course :P)
Synopsis - These were a set of mostly quiet turns, my workers got most of the road network down and then started throwing down replacment improvments around the capital. Plantations and Farms are 4 worker turns each, with two workers I've been getting a new improvement every other turn, adding 2 plantations and 1 cow-farm to the capital. I'm working on a mage guild in the capital because I want it to be growing (otherwise I would be building a worker), and I'll eventually get adepts. My tech is focused on Education for apprenticeship (I'm running nationhood, so no harm there). It should come in around the same time the mage guild finishes, so my first adepts will have it's XP bonus. This will also let me cottage an the remaining river around the capital as I stretch for as much commerce as possible.
![[Image: T54a.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/Choke_Screenies/T54a.JPG)
![[Image: T54b.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/Choke_Screenies/T54b.JPG)
![[Image: T54c.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/Choke_Screenies/T54c.JPG)
![[Image: T54d.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/Choke_Screenies/T54d.JPG)
![[Image: T55.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/Choke_Screenies/T55.JPG)
![[Image: T56a.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/Choke_Screenies/T56a.JPG)
![[Image: T56b.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/Choke_Screenies/T56b.JPG)
![[Image: T57a.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/Choke_Screenies/T57a.JPG)
![[Image: T57b.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/Choke_Screenies/T57b.JPG)
![[Image: T58a.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/Choke_Screenies/T58a.JPG)
![[Image: T58cap.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/Choke_Screenies/T58cap.JPG)
![[Image: T59a.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/Choke_Screenies/T59a.JPG)
![[Image: T60a.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/Choke_Screenies/T60a.JPG)
![[Image: T60b.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/Choke_Screenies/T60b.JPG)
oh well. When it rains it pours I guess.![[Image: T61.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/Choke_Screenies/T61.JPG)
![[Image: T64.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/Choke_Screenies/T64.JPG)
![[Image: T65.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/Choke_Screenies/T65.JPG)
![[Image: T66.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/Choke_Screenies/T66.JPG)
![[Image: T68.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/Choke_Screenies/T68.JPG)
![[Image: T69a.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/Choke_Screenies/T69a.JPG)
![[Image: T69GSci.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/Choke_Screenies/T69GSci.JPG)
![[Image: T71.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/Choke_Screenies/T71.JPG)
![[Image: T72.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/Choke_Screenies/T72.JPG)
![[Image: T73.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/Choke_Screenies/T73.JPG)
![[Image: T74.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/Choke_Screenies/T74.JPG)
![[Image: T75.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/Choke_Screenies/T75.JPG)
![[Image: T75.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/T75%20-%2080/T75.JPG)
![[Image: T76.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/T75%20-%2080/T76.JPG)
![[Image: T77a.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/T75%20-%2080/T77a.JPG)
![[Image: T77b.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/T75%20-%2080/T77b.JPG)
![[Image: T78.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/T75%20-%2080/T78.JPG)
![[Image: T79.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/T75%20-%2080/T79.JPG)
![[Image: T80.JPG]](http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4995277/RBCIV%20FfH%20PBEM5/T75%20-%2080/T80.JPG)
