The first animal is encountered. It turns out to be a bear. Right next to where the scout ended the turn. He is probably dead now. If the scout survives it will likely be severely wounded. Oh well, nothing we can do about that now. It seems that dtay does not have an eastern neighbour. Actually I`m not at all unhappy about the amount of tiles the scout has revealed so far, even if we won`t get any further information in this direction.
After reading your discussion on the future site of Muqa, I have a few comments.
I think we agree that the NE site is a better city. After it pops borders it`ll be really awesome. Actually I`m more concerned with the short-term survival rather than the long-term. If we can make safe the city until turn 50 or so, I think we should be able to defend it quite comfortably. If we are very careful that is. I`m not sure what kind of border dtay would be happy with. If he builds a city 3N of our site, it`ll be a clear sign that he`s going for a military solution. If he builds further away I think he accepts the border. The best solution for us would be to get cities 3N of Muqa and on that peninsula NE of the city.
And another point - that desert hill you`ve mentioned. I was just about to write yesterday that I absolutely did NOT want to see a dtay city on that site, as it would block us off that resource rich area. Well, it kind of got late, and I had to get some sleep.
I`m still perfectly willing to go for the northeastern alternative. I view this as a high risk, high reward kind of play. And if dtay doesn`t use his window to smash our defenses prior to us getting BW, we are just better off than the alternative imo. I agree that he`s not likely to sacrifice a lot in development by whipping out an impi asap, but we need to take into account the possibility of dtay wanting an impi or two scouting our way. After all, he knows that we are likely to be to his SW somewhere. If he sees a lightly defended city he could decide to attempt an oppertunistic attack.
In order to hook up copper asap I think we should consider building on top of the resource. It`ll save us some worker turns. We don`t have to decide that yet of course. Btw: Which turn do you estimate that dtay finishes BW? Iirc ours is turn 36.
Good points; you're absolutely right that we'll need to be ready to at least repel an opportunistic attack in the northeast. And yeah, I'd consider planting on copper if it were located in the right place or if there were an emergency. Of course, it could still turn up within two tiles of one of our cities, so we can't plan on it either way.
I hate civ4 bears, and from its positioning, this one literally just spawned on this past interturn, just in time to eat our scout for lunch. I agree we might as well get the scout its funeral flowers now and avoid the rush, but also that we got some good scouting in considering Monarch barbs are on. The Üneg clan did some fine work for us, and I'll write them an epitaph later on. Not only that, thanks to the way you've been moving the scout these last few turns, we haven't given dtay any new information about his southeast: If he hasn't scouted this way, he may not know whether there's another land bridge and neighbor in this direction, nor how far the land extends.
You are correct that our ETA for BW is turn 36 (EoT35). dtay should finish BW turn 27 (EoT26). He can get his first Settler three turns later with a chop, and then revolt to Slavery while his Settler is en route (losing a turn of tech, production, and growth at the capital). How soon he can actually get copper hooked depends on where it appears for him:
- There are six tiles in the capital BFC (not counting FPs, forests, or the actual city tile; we do know Dark Savant doesn't have copper under his city) where dtay could hook copper as soon as T30 - we should hopefully know long before then if this is possible, as Dark Savant will have mined his copper and it would show up in the demos.
- If our rivers are mirrored, there's only one tile where copper could appear that he could connect on T31 (by settling ON it in spite of it being a river grassland) and four where he could connect it on T32, also by settling on them (two of which he might even do if the copper were there).
- There are two other tiles where copper could appear such that he could connect it on T34 with a mine. That's a total of seven tiles (excluding a forest on which he could settle T33) outside of his BFC, again assuming mirrored rivers.
- If copper does not appear on any of those tiles, he will need roads to connect it, and he won't get The Wheel until T36 (assuming he revolts to slavery and doesn't stunt his growth and settler production for tech).
On the northeast Muqa site: I claimed its borders would pop around T50 in my lengthy discussion of the possible sites upthread, but the turn numbers I listed should have been end of turn numbers: Its borders would actually pop EoT51, so that we can use its full BFC for the first time on T52. This can be sped by a turn or two (and no more) only by sacrificing other important stuff. Note on the T52 plan that the city would be size 2 T38, whip its barracks T41, and immediately regrow to size 2 the following turn, with up to 5 hammers in a Warrior (which would upgrade to a Spear in the queue if we hooked copper before finishing it). Note that even with that whip, the Northeast Muqa site would outgrow its improved tiles rapidly, shortly followed by its happy cap, so it'll probably be turning its food into hammers at 1:1 by stagnating on Settlers at various points, though we should at some point build a city to share its sheep and an island city post-sailing to share its fish and whales.
Some more international stuff:
- Don't assume we're safe from dtay once we can build metal units: Defending against Shock axes on flatland would be a nightmare if he decided to come for us in force. Fortunately they're slow though, so we'd have time to react if he tried something like that, as long as we pay attention to what he's doing. The Northeast Muqa site isn't close enough to him to be a provocation on its own though, so all we have to do is look prickly enough to him that he realizes he can make better gains elsewhere (whether through his other neighbor, peacefully, or across the sea). That said, a city anywhere on that peninsula beyond Northeast Muqa would be a reach for us, and any city we put north of that desert hill (or of course on it, but we're planning/hoping to make that impossible) would be a de-facto declaration of war. I doubt if we would manage to get either one anyway, but we'll see when the time comes....
- CML is working the same tiles as us, still the dark mirror of our team. At this point, I don't think he's suffered any setbacks from choking, misclicks, or anything else.
- Ventessel now has Bronze Working (along with Fishing and his starting techs of Mining + Agriculture) and is working his rice farm. And ... it's looking like at least one of the turns he missed really did bite him: Either his worker stood around doing nothing T13 (in which case missing T17 cost him no more than perhaps a turn of scouting) or his worker turns were queued already but his governor was off so he failed to work his just-finished rice farm when he missed T17. If either is true, that really stinks, but it's no worse than a misclick, and could have been a lot worse. Hopefully he'll be able to play all his turns (and in a timely fashion!) going forward....
- Krill now has Hunting and Mining, and produced his Worker last turn. He's still working his river corn or pigs or whatever while his worker probably improves that very tile, and I assume he's growing on a Quechua. I don't know if he was being indecisive, wanted to delay his neighbor's knowledge of what he teched, actually thought he might fool someone in the longer term, or has some other weird, esoteric reason for swapping between Hunting and Mining for several turns early on, but - like Coeurva with BW and Hunting (see below) - that's what he did.
- In my long-standing habit of misunderstanding what Coeurva was doing, I think I recorded somewhere that he got Agriculture back on turn 14 (after switching back and forth with Bronze Working). I was of course mistaken: The tech he got was Hunting. He also just completed his Worker this turn. He'll be resuming his Warrior this turn (started T10) while starting a pasture on his cows.
- And finally: Just looking at the numbers, it really, really looks like Gavagai was being choked. There's even a chance there's still an enemy scout sitting on his forest hill while his warrior stands just north of it, watching balefully. There are still a couple untested assumptions in there, including some kind of "go ahead and ignore the turn split until we both have units in the area" message back on (or around) turn 9, but right now it seems to me like the only thing that fits. Gav has been playing relatively late in the turn all game long (though not nearly as late as the likes of dtay, Ventessel, and CML) so nothing about turn order is conclusive really, but just the same: Ever since Gav's warrior was produced, Dark Savant and Coeurva have played before him every turn. So have we, but I'm pretty sure we aren't choking him. ... Oh, that's right, and one other player has too. It's only Krill though, so it probably doesn't mean anything, right?
I was hoping to play a new turn now but it turns out that three players haven`t played yet. What is going on? Surely it can`t be too much of a strain on your social life at this point. The turns shouldn`t take more than a couple of minutes. We`ve all signed up for playing at least a turn per day. Since the beginning of the game we have played 19 turns in 22 days. Not really impressive.
And now to the important stuff: It`s very good for us that dtay hasn`t got The Wheel just yet. As he doesn`t finish that tech until we finish BW, our odds of getting away with it increases quite a bit i think. The mapmaker probably wouldn`t place copper on a river for instant resource connection, though we cannot be sure of that. Finding out when Dark Savant is able to connect his source of copper is very valuable information!
Hmmm, with a barracks dtay is able to build shock axes right out of the gate. I see your point. We need to keep a decent-sized garrison in our proposed Muqa site at all points. We need his graphs as well, to tell if there is a build-up. If he`s really going for it, we could be in a bit of trouble, but we would definitely rather have a city here than not.
Just want to make it clear: We won't actually know when Dark Savant has connected his copper until we meet him or (maybe, if I can stay on top of the demos) when he produces a spear or axe. If he has it in his capital BFC though, we should know when there's a mine on it, and we might even be able to tell when he's working the tile if it's at his second city.
I agree with your thoughts on dtay and the Northeast Muqa site. Are you leaning towar that one before the northwest site at this point? (If so, I'll try to post a consolidated microplan for that site.)
I also agree about people playing their turns, though I think Gavagai may (still?) be in a turn-split, so it's hard to blame him too much. ... On the other hand, he hasn't been last to play since I think turn 9, thso he's not exactly the problem here. The trouble with a big Pitboss is that it moves at the pace of the very slowest player(s) - but I would have expected these early turns to roll a lot faster than this!
I actually e-mailed Tectomoc (through the forum interface) last turn letting him know a new turn was up, and how to set up Civstats to automatically e-mail him when a new turn came around, since he mentioned that getting an e-mail would be helpful for him in the tech thread. He played a little while after that, maybe by coincidence. If he did get my message, maybe he just in't follow the secon part or civstats' notification system isn't working properly or something; I dunno.
The turn finally arrived. As expected, our scout was killed by that bear. On the brighter side, we now have a military unit! The first warrior is on his way eastwards to see if we have a strong site to settle a bit later. I don`t think we should move too far SE here, because that warrior is an integral part of our aggressive plan of moving directly towards dtay with our second city. Yes, I`m quite convinced now that it`s the right move after all. Actually I`ve been very indecisive up to this point, which is quite unlike me. Reading between the lines, I think you are in favor of that plant as well!? But - losing that warrior to an animal attack could potentially be a big blow. We`re going to need it to keep the worker roading to the future Muqa site safe.
If you`re willing to write up an updated micro plan - that would be awesome!
I compared the screenshots you stitched together with the updated turn 20 ones. I couldn`t spot a single forest growth (or jungle growth for that matter) near us. It looks like dtay has had at least 2 forest growths nearby compared to us.
I tend to be highly indecisive myself (and correct myself all the time, as you've probably noticed) and can see good arguments for both sites we've considered. I'm not sure where I'd plant Muqa if I were playing the game myself, but let's put it this way: Since you're quite convinced that we want that site next, I'm 100% in favor of it too!
Completely agreed on the warrior situation. I'll include suggested warrior moves in the microplan, though they're obviously subject to change based on what we discover.
Also, thanks for checking on the forest growths! And ... if I'm reading that first screenshot right, that's a lion on the forest hill 4N-2E of Borte. That could be a problem, but at least it should prevent new bears from spawning close by (unless they wander over from elsewhere of course). We'll have to see where it goes. Have we seen any other animals around? (Apart from that one bear of course....)
International Update:
Everyone but Krill got their 9 land points from settling in place on turn 0; Krill should get his 11 or 12 land points on T23, at the same time Gav gets 14-16 land points for his creative border pop. GermanJoey, Ventessel, and dtay also grew their capitals to size 2 this turn. Also note that Gav played before just about everybody this turn, so if he was being choked earlier, he presumably got peace at some point. (Or I guess they could have agreed to something like "obviously this is a stalemate for now; feel free to play whenever you want until you see something that could break it.") Finally, we were the only team to complete a warrior this turn, meaning we now own 25% of all (non-scout) military units in the world. Next turn, I expect CML to either produce a warrior of his own or grow his city to size 3 - in which case he'd be the first player in the game to do so, by a margin of just a single turn.
I'll dig into the demographics later on.
As for micro stuff: The below is highly speculative, especially starting T36, and I'd still like to try to improve it. Nevertheless, here is Candidate Microplan 3A:
T21: Warrior scouts east or southeast. One possibility would be to just go E to the rice, NE to the plains, and SE to the grassland hill before turning back. Alternatively, scouting generally SE and eventually returning to the capital is an option. The plan below assumes that the second warrior will be used to protect/fogbust the northeast region for the worker and settler, hopefully with an option to bring the first Warrior up as well or to return it to the capital.
T22: Borte is now size 3. Worker completes the Farm. Borte works Cows + Clams + Rice.
T23: Mining is complete; tech Bronze Working. New Warrior is complete and moves 1N to the grassland E of the clams unless the prevailing situation dictates otherwise; Borte starts building a Settler. Worker moves 1NW to the floodplain, begins a Road, and CANCELS orders. We're going to end up with several part-built roads here, but that may actually be a good thing to be prepared for copper turning up in an unknown location.
T24: Worker moves 1NW to the river grassland just north of Borte, begins a Road, and CANCELS orders. Second Warrior moves 1NE to the forest just north of the river.
T25: Worker moves 1NE to the forest just north of the river. Second Warrior moves 1NW to the grassland hill.
T26: Worker begins a Road. Second Warrior moves 1NE to another grassland hill.
T27: Worker completes the Road. Second Warrior moves 1E to the grassland forest hill.
T28: Assuming no barbs threaten, Worker moves 1NE to the river grassland SW of the sheep and begins a Road. Second Warrior moves 1NE to the forest just north of the sheep.
T29: Worker completes the Road. Second Warrior moves 1E to the site of Muqa.
T30: Settler is complete and moves N-NE to the roaded forest. Worker moves 1NE to the Sheep and begins a Road. Second Warrior fortifies. Borte begins another Worker.
T31: Worker completes the Road. Settler moves 3NE along the road to the site of Muqa.
T32: Worker WAITS for the Settler to found the city of Muqa, then moves NE-N through the city to the corn and begins a Farm. Muqa begins a Barracks and works the Corn. Set Research slider to 20%.
T33: Set Research slider to 100%.
T34: Worker is complete at Borte; it moves SW to the cows and begins a Road. Borte starts another Settler.
T35: The Worker on the Cows completes the Road.
T36: Bronze Working is complete. Tech Pottery? Bronze is revealed, hopefully suggesting a city that can share one of Borte's three improved tiles, either ON Copper if it's on a hill or plains tile (or if an emergency is developing) or with Copper in the first ring. The Worker on the Cows moves to road toward the city and/or copper in question. The Worker on the Corn completes the Farm. Set Research slider to 0%.
T37: The Worker on the Corn moves 2S to the grassland forest. Muqa swaps to building a Warrior.
T38: Muqa is now size 2 and resumes building its Barracks, working the Corn and the plains forest. The Worker on the forest south of the city begins a Chop. Set Research slider to 100%.
T39: REVOLT to Slavery. Borte WHIPS its Settler (3 pop to 2) and works Cow + Clams.
T40: Settler is now complete at Borte, and moves toward the site of the copper-city-to-be (Toregene). It founds the city as soon as the location and roads allow. Worker at Muqa completes the Chop. Borte starts a Worker?
T41: Muqa WHIPS its Barracks (2 pop to 1) and works the Corn. The Worker by Muqa moves 1W to the Sheep and begins a Pasture. Borte swaps to building a Warrior?
T42: Barracks complete at Muqa, which is now size 2. It resumes its Warrior, working Corn + Sheep?
I just got home now. Still no new turn. This time dtay is yet to play. Well, I have to get some sleep soon and tomorrow is going to be a busy day. Nothing I can do about that I`m afraid.
I like that micro plan! We probably should whip out the third settler in Borte, as well as that barracks in Muqa. That extra 20% defense is vital. We also need extra visibility in that area. For scouting I think we should choose a cautious approach, going to that grass hill to the east of Borte and back again. (We could continue a tile further if it is deemed an acceptable risk). Our warriors are at this point just too valuable to risk imo. The second warrior could be killed by another bear lurking to our NE. You never know. Also, that lion to our NE is the first animal visible from Borte. A lion is still slightly dangerous for our warrior(s, but we`ll have very good odds if we stick to defensive terrain.
All makes sense to me. I'd really like to find some way to get another warrior or two out of Borte, e.g. after the Worker, but so far it doesn't look very promising to me (since we don't want to delay city 3).
He is probably dead now. If the scout survives it will likely be severely wounded. Oh well, nothing we can do about that now. It seems that dtay does not have an eastern neighbour. Actually I`m not at all unhappy about the amount of tiles the scout has revealed so far, even if we won`t get any further information in this direction.
