[SPOILERS] Magic Science and Mr. Cairo in Pitboss 40

[Mr. Cairo]

From Artosis of Starcraft 2 commentary fame, maybe?

Yes, you're right, it was Artosis! Thanks, I've been wondering where I heard it for a while now. 

[Magic Science]

Turns 91 and 92 – 600 and 575 BC
   

Do you have graphs enough to know who that 80 GNP is? I don't remember you saying someone is in a GA, so I'm wondering who's got that much GNP and how? I had a quick look through your previous reports and saw that Couerva built Stonehenge, could the culture from that (and their religion) be boosting their GNP? If so, then we're doing really well on that front, and you're absolutely right to be focusing there instead of a potential backstab on Superdeath.

The top GNP is indeed CoT4E, and it has been for a while. They even broke 100 GNP at one point. Their GNP is certainly inflated by culture from the Oracle, Stonehenge (plus the free monuments from it), and the Buddhist holy city (plus a few other Buddhist cities), but I think that they do have a real research advantage. They finished researching Currency this turn, actually. That beats us by twelve turns, even if we go directly for Currency after Alphabet. We are still doing fairly well in GNP though, third place at the moment, and I expect us to break 100 GNP by Turn 100.

As I once remember hearing, "once you're ahead, get ahead-er" and attacking Superdeath is not going to get us ahead. But building cottages is going to get us ahead-er. With that in mind, remember that you can build cottages on hills and non-riverside tiles as well. I'd say go nuts and build as many cottages as it is possible to work. You can keep a city or two entirely focused on hammers to keep pumping out enough units to not be vulnerable.

I like that quote; I will keep it in mind (I had never heard of Artosis, though). I have been cottaging the riverside tiles first because they are the better tiles to cottage, but the workers will start cottaging non-riverside tiles as well very soon. Could we have twenty cottages being worked by Turn 100, maybe? Some combination of Cape Town, Lhasa, and Sofia can pump units to keep us at a reasonable power level relative to our neighbors.

Also, how has Hinduism not fallen yet?

I have no idea. It’s ridiculously late for it to still be unclaimed. That brings to mind that we should be thinking about trying to claim religions, wonders, and other first-to bonuses now. For a while, during the doom and gloom phase, I had given up all hope of us getting any, but I now think that we could plausibly claim some. Should we go for Hinduism? It would raise the happiness cap and is quite cheap for this stage of the game, but Currency and Calendar beckon.

   
Charson obtained the first Great Person of the game on Turn 91, beating us by ten turns.

Relatedly, I have been thinking about what we should do with our Great Scientist from Almaty when he is born. Settling him as a specialist just seems bad compared to other options, and we don’t have a plan to make use of a technology bulb, so that leaves either a Golden Age or an academy. For a while, I had been assuming that we would die too quickly for a long-term investment like an academy to pay off, but, now that I don't think we are doomed so soon, I am not so sure. Sidon is an excellent cottage city, and an academy there could make a substantial number of beakers. A Golden Age would be good too, of course, but a Turn 101 Golden Age would affect only about 35 population, and I don’t think it would save us any turns of anarchy. We could stash the scientist away until a more opportune time comes, but if we stash him away too long then we might as well have used him for an academy and produced a second Great Person for a later Golden Age, right? I will need to think about it.
 
   
On the other side of the world, Jem is still exploring. This turn he found a city ruin, which fits my earlier theory that Superdeath had captured and razed a barbarian city. The presence of that incredibly well promoted impi also indicates that there has been some fighting over here before.

As for the fighting that is going on over here now, Jem is trying to get a view of it for me. It seems likely that the battle is going on somewhere in the fog between Galura and Schilda, so he is close. I am starting to think that the Dreamlike-Interdimensional War isn’t going to be as much of a problem for CoT4E as I was hoping for, though. It has been going on for five turns, and Charson still hasn’t captured a city. If their initial invading army was large enough to take a city, then it seems like it should have happened already. If it wasn’t, then it seems doubtful that they will be able to bring in reinforcement attackers faster than CoT4E will be able to bring in reinforcement defenders. CoT4E haven’t even been whipping very much. War weariness did go up this turn, so there is some hope, but I am not feeling very optimistic.

Either way, CoT4E’s new thread title is perfect. The lurkers are never subtle about what they want to see, that’s for sure.

   
I mentioned before that I thought Superdeath was going to claim this tile, so I didn’t want to put a cottage on it. However, I’m not sure now. The percentage of how much of the culture on the tile is his hasn’t been increasing as much, and New Hong Kong is about to complete a barracks for more culture. I think that I might keep the tile, and if I am, then I want a cottage on it. I think that I will have some workers turn around and build a cottage.

[Mr. Cairo]

re: Hinduism, if we go for it, then we'd probably also want to get to Organised religion, and use the Great Scientist for a GA to avoid the anarchy.

But that would mean holding off on Currency, which I don't think is worthwhile. It seems likely everyone else is roughly on the same path as us (and the only civ to get currency so far already has a religion). So I'd say stick to the current plan for now, and go for a religion afterwards. Judaism at the very least should be available.

[Magic Science]

Turn 93 – 550 BC
   
I joined the game this turn to see the above trade offer from the Injustice League. The obvious takeaway from this is that Superdeath has Alphabet now (beating us by four turns, not too much accounting for the Great Injustice of Turn 43), but I’m not quite sure what he is trying to get across to us diplomatically.

Offering horses-for-horses most likely means that he is still interested in some sort of combined military actions with us, but if he just means that, then why didn’t he send a copper-for-copper trade like earlier? Could sending horses-for-horses means something slightly different than sending copper-for-copper? And why send open borders in the same trade offer as horses-for-horses? Does that have any additional hidden meaning, or did he just want us to accept both of them so he sent both along in one trade?

Whatever it means, I rejected it and didn’t reoffer anything. I’m still not interested in teaming up with Superdeath on someone, so I don’t want a horse-for-horse deal, and I don’t think that trade routes with Superdeath are going to be worth more than internal trade routes with Quebec City, so I don’t want open borders. I should probably test that, though. I may be misunderstanding the mechanics that determine trade route value.

   
Charson and CoT4E made peace. All in all, the Dreamlike-Interdimensional War resulted in no city razes, not many whips, and, judging by war weariness levels and the power graph, not that many unit deaths. It did leave both Charson and CoT4E with sizeable armies, though. I wonder what they will do with them now? I expect CoT4E to turn back to peacefully honing their economic advantage for a while longer (someone had 132 GNP this turn ), using their army only for deterrence, so I’m not too worried about them attacking us. I will still be keeping an eye on them and building more units, though. On the other hand, I think that Charson may try to attack a different player. RFS-81+haphazard1 looks weak, and Charson might feel that they need to get some profit from that huge army they have. Or maybe not, we will just have to wait and see.

You can also see that Ptolemy was born in Superman this turn. I would not have guessed that Superdeath would get the second Great Person of the game. I wouldn’t have guessed that Charson would get the first Great Person of the game either. I would have guessed that one of the leading teams, shallow_ru or CoT4E, would have obtained Great People first. I imagine that they will produce their first Great People soon, probably before me.

The last thing of note in the above screenshot is that I was a noob and misclicked Jem in the wrong direction. At least it isn’t causing a city to go into unhappiness this time.

   
Meanwhile, Quecha Two wasn’t even allowed to go home because the Psychedelic Warlords settled their city of Black Corridors. Poor guy, he has the worst luck. He will remained camped out on that hill tile until I get open borders with someone or one of the Psychedelic cities expands borders and he gets warped away by dark magic…or until I decide I don’t want to pay the maintenance costs anymore and delete him.

You can also see one of my workers going towards the grasslands east of Geneva to build some of those non-riverside cottages I was talking about.

Lastly, I would like to point out a weird, interesting mechanic that I didn’t know about until a few turns ago when I founded Lhasa (or, more accurately, until my simulations reached the founding of Lhasa). The desert tile two tile north of Lhasa has not been claimed by any city of mine, it doesn’t even have any Incan culture on it (it says “0% Incan”), but it is still colored green and counts as within my territory. I guess that when a tile is surrounded on all eight sides by one civilization’s culture it is automatically claimed.

re: Hinduism, if we go for it, then we'd probably also want to get to Organised religion, and use the Great Scientist for a GA to avoid the anarchy.

But that would mean holding off on Currency, which I don't think is worthwhile. It seems likely everyone else is roughly on the same path as us (and the only civ to get currency so far already has a religion). So I'd say stick to the current plan for now, and go for a religion afterwards. Judaism at the very least should be available.

Hmm…I like that plan. I agree that delaying Currency isn’t a good idea, so we won’t do that, but getting a religion and Organized Religion could be good. I’ll try some simulations of that.

[Magic Science]

Turns 94 and 95 – 525 and 500 BC
   
Called it.

It’s a real war too, for sure. Some war weariness appeared right away on Turn 94, and I can tell from Civstats that Charson captured a city from RFS-81+haphazard1 on Turn 96 (the current turn, it’s just that I haven’t played it yet and have been slow to report these two turns). This is an interesting and important development; it appears to be the first true war of conquest in this game. The question is, what do I do in response to it? It may not be “sit around and do nothing” this time…

You see, RFS-81+haphazard1 lead a food-tier civilization. They are the weakest team in the game by far. For them, it is a matter of when and how, not if, they are conquered. By the looks of things, the time may be now. I somehow neglected to take a screenshot of the power graph now that Charson is visible on it, but their power advantage is massive as advertised, and they aren’t the only ones RFS-81 and haphazard need to worry about: shallow_ru and CoT4E are threats too. CoT4E could capture Space Love out of the fog with no warning using only a single chariot, and I have a hard time imagining them not doing something like that if the Psychedelic Warlords begin to collapse. I can’t see the entire border between the Psychedelics and the Orphans, and it probably isn’t quite as vulnerable, but the Orphans have a respectable power rating too, and I’m sure they are hungry for new cities like the rest of us. Essentially, if Charson is able to push on a little farther, then RFS-81+haphazard1 could be starting their death spiral as we speak (or type, or read, or whatever ).

I am not well positioned to make territorial gains during that death spiral, though. My immediate problem is that my army is weak, but even if that problem was solved (and it won’t be, at least not fast enough to matter for this war), then there would still be other issues with capturing Psychedelic cities. Their cities are far away. They would cost a lot in maintenance and they would be very hard to defend. The abysmal defensive position of Space Love that I mentioned above would become mine if I succeeded. Also, the cities I could reasonably take (Black Corridors and Space Love) are located in the middle of the jungle belt and I don’t have Iron Working or Calendar. So, capturing their cities isn’t going to happen. However, there is another thing I could do: burn them.

Space Love has a lone warrior for defense. Black Corridors has only an axeman and an archer. That is a skeleton force, and it might decrease even further if Charson pushes farther. Two chariots could stand a real chance of burning down one of those cities. From doing so, I would gain capture gold and deny a city to one of my rivals (probably CoT4E). Two chariots is not an expensive price to pay, and I think that RFS-81+haphazard1 will be weak enough that their ill will won’t be a big deal either.

I may not go through with this, but I am going to send my two chariots southeast to leave my options open.

   
Oh, and other things happened this turn too. It turns out that the ridiculous GNP from two turns ago was Superdeath, not CoT4E as I assumed. That must be from a bunch of research builds, so I’m not too worried. It’s even somewhat comforting to know that CoT4E aren’t quite as strong as I thought. Superdeath is probably doing the same thing we are about to do: building lots of research and racing for Currency. I will keep a close eye on him to see when he is allowed to trade gold, as I have been doing every turn since CoT4E obtained Currency.

Also, Charson is distinctly average in GNP, which is good. I don’t need to add “Giant Interdimensional GNP” to my list of problems, which is already long enough. However, they do have Alphabet now, so they aren’t doing too badly in technology.

[Magic Science]

Turns 96 and 97 – 475 and 450 BC
   
I moved the chariots into position by Geneva, but now that I think more about it and look at the terrain between me and the Psychedelic Warlords, I don’t like the idea of attacking them quite as much. Chariots moving to attack Space Love would be seen two turns in advance, which would probably be enough time to move in reinforcements. Those reinforcements may not be much, so a reasonably sized force could likely beat them, but two chariots does not qualify as a reasonably sized force. Also, due to the road network RFS-81+haphazard1 has built, the chariots would be vulnerable to being preemptively attacked while they were approaching if I move them in on a route that takes them between Space Love and Black Corridors (which I would want to do so I can fork those cities).

All in all, I think that the chances of success in this plan aren’t that great, and I likely won’t do it. It’s probably common sense to most people on Realms Beyond by now, but the lesson I am learning from these planned, then cancelled military ventures (not just this one, but the earlier ones in regards to the Injustice League) is that you can’t make any offensive moves unless you are willing to significantly commit to building units. Even quick strikes or opportunistic attacks require a substantial number of troops, not just one or two units you built when it was convenient in-between building other peaceful things. I don’t regret choosing to play peacefully during this phase of the game (yet, at least), but I do think that I need to accept the fact that I have chosen that path and stop planning all these crazy wars.

   
I don’t have a picture of the war zone, so this is what you get. I do think that the warzone is close nearby to the south, however. I looked back at an old screenshot of RFS-81+haphazard1’s city list and compared it to what they have now, and it turns out that the city that Charson took was Lighthouse, their second city! It is also notable that RFS-81 seems to think himself doomed; he logged in, played Turn 98, and logged out all in one minute. Maybe I was right about the death spiral beginning now, at least.

   
Meanwhile, we finished Alphabet and started building research everywhere (actually, only in four cities so far). Currency is due on Turn 104 with a little bit of scraping for research. After that, I’m not sure. I forgot to take a screenshot, but shallow_ru finally picked up Hinduism at the turn roll, so we aren’t going to get that. We could still try for Judaism, but I’m worried that shallow_ru may be going for Organized Religion next, which would stop that plan.

Also, note that our MFG and Crop Yield are falling back again. I will talk more about this on Turn 100, but I place most of the blame for that on lack of happiness resources. The Unlucky Orphans have three connected now, including whales, while I still only have ivory.

[Magic Science]

To the chattering lurkers: Sorry for the slow turn reports recently. However, be aware that the next one may involve blood.

[WilliamLP]

Lurker memory is short, and all will be forgiven with a bloody T100 overview!

[Magic Science]

Turn 98 and 99 – 425 and 400 BC
   
I honestly thought that I had made my final decision about the War on Music on Turn 97, but then the situation changed again and my mind changed again with it. You see, on Turn 98, I logged in to find that RFS-81 had moved the axeman and archer out of Black Corridors, leaving the city completely empty. That certainly changes things! If your victim has no defenders in their city, then you can toss out everything I said in my previous turn report about even quick strikes needing significant investment. 

I didn’t start moving the chariots on Turn 98 because I was still uncertain, but this turn, Turn 99, they rolled into action and headed to where you see them now. If this works out, they will follow the signs and burn Black Corridors on Turn 101. RFS-81+hapahazard1 will only see my chariots coming one turn in advance, and they won’t even be able to whip a defender to completion during that turn, as I have the second half of the timer (the same half as Charson, so we don’t have a three-part split).

I realize that my chariots probably look rather threatening to shallow_ru, so I sent them an open borders offer this turn to try to indicate that I’m not going to attack them. It would be disappointing for my plan to fail due to them interfering in an attempt to counter a perceived threat to their security. Also, I simply want open borders with them. I was offered, and I accepted, an open borders deal with Charson, but I now realize that I can’t get routes with them because I haven’t scouted a path yet. Going through shallow_ru’s land seems like the best way to scout that path, and I would also like to try to get some free Hinduism spreads from trade connections with them if I can.

   
Meanwhile, the Battle of Utopia, one of the great battles of the War on Music, took place here these past two turns. Charson captured the city on Turn 98, then RFS-81 took it back on Turn 99 and burned it down. He burned down his own city! I thought that you couldn’t raze a city you had founded, but I was clearly wrong. I suppose that doing so does make sense if you aren’t going to be able to hold your city after retaking it. Another surprising detail of the Battle of Utopia is how fast the armies have managed to vacate the field. The battle was concluded only earlier this turn, yet no units are in sight. I suppose that the roads enabled them to disperse quickly.

   
Over in New Hong Kong, I am pleased to announce that my first village appeared on Turn 98. It’s a bit of an outlying forerunner, though. The first real wave of villages won’t start appearing until about ten turns from now. After that, I think that further growths from one tier of cottages to the next won’t come in waves as much as in a steady flow. At this point it is the amount of happy population, not the number of cottages, that is the limiting factor.

In Almaty, I am thinking about trying for the Great Lighthouse. It wouldn’t be an incredible wonder like it is on some maps, but it would still be worth about 10 or 11 commerce per turn, more if I manage to settle some of the Astronomy islands, which seems like a decent return on the investment of building it. Furthermore, its culture and Great Person points would not necessarily be useless like they often are. The culture would help in Almaty’s struggle against The Flash, and the Great Merchant points could help produce another Great Person from Almaty in the future. The trouble is that Almaty doesn’t have any forests left to accelerate the build, so the best I can do is use overflow trickery, and maybe a Golden Age, to speed things up. It would still take almost until Turn 120 to finish, however, and simply building a market and growing the city is an appealing option too.

   
To round off this turn report, I give you a sneak peek of Turn 100 and the Blessed Land of the Almighty Commodore, courtesy of the newly-expanded borders of Quebec City. Your eyes do not deceive you, that is a pre-mined and yet still forested silver tile out there. I can even see the hint of a river in the fog on the island. I thought about getting Quebec City to expand borders again quickly so that I could make it to the island without Astronomy, but my simulation indicates that Quebec City’s culture simply won’t expand on to the ocean fish tile to allow that. I guess that we will need to do it the old-fashioned way.

[Mr. Cairo]

Looking good Magic Science. All those lovely commerce symbols are nice to look at. Too bad we're still only making 12/13 gold/turn at 0% science, but what can you do? We're still making good time towards Currency.
Burning that city of RFS's will add some cash as well, perhaps enough to run 100% science for a turn to finish off Currency? How much are we losing at 100% science?

About RFS burning his own city, I think it's possible if it never got any culture in it? The game remembers culture put into a tile, and I guess that includes the city tile, so if it never got any RFS culture in it, it wouldn't be "his" when he took it back. I'm not entirely sure though, culture mechanics are strange in Civ 4.

Are there any Calendar resources other than the incense available? If we're really straining against the happy cap, it might be worthwhile to go there after Currency? Or go we can down the religious route hoping for Judaism, but mainly going for Monarchy and Hereditary Rule to sort out the happiness issue.

Those arctic islands look tasty, I think the deer on the western one is already camped as well. Too bad we're going to need Astro to get there. But it gives us a target. Astro is a pretty difficult tech to get, the usual route is via Liberalism or Great Scientist bulbs. I doubt the latter is viable, we're not PHI, and I don't think we're going to be going into Caste System any time soon. So that just leaves Liberalism. Maybe it's a bit over-ambitious to be thinking that far ahead, but I still think it's something we should try and figure out a path towards sooner rather than later.