[49 spoilers] Miguelito, pindicator and Adrien take Shiva by the hands

[Hollybombay]

Could you do an overview of where you believe/know everyone is on the map? And overall thoughts on the map?

[Miguelito]

Could you do an overview of where you believe/know everyone is on the map? And overall thoughts on the map?

This shot summarizes what I know more or less:


I hadn't noticed before that the FT borders I recently scouted were former Elkad lands.
I think SD is to the S/SW of Ruff. Elkad I think is/was on the eastern shores of our sea (I seem to remember a scouting boat from him). Comm has his origin further north, Rasko to the west of him, maybe a few tiles more in the south. FT isin my SW. Cornflakes is S/SW of Rasko, but made more of his piggy in the middle position than I could, with his strong multiwhip opening.
The map is very fun; the civilizations have nice unique flavours, deserts and mountains are placed cleverly. It's pretty tight (which was known before the game started), which I feel punishes little errors harder, of which I've made quite a few. My placement versus Cairo I feel is terrible: Our capitals facing each other across the ocean are just too close, and mine is significantly easier to boat. The ocean tiles I mentioned in my t92 report are horrible, and I can only suspect where not placed with the effect in mind they are having, as I have no similar opportunity.
I also maintain that my starting land is pretty inferior to Cairo's; somehow with 4 cities he was able to have double my production, while I have 2 unmined non-desert hills left improve that. He has iron at his second city, I have it on an island; I have jungle, he had forests for chopping. I had the awkward 2 fish opening and the offshore cow to mock me, he had grain and probably another landbound food (he didn't feel the need to improve his clams at the cap until t50 or so). My GNP is still superior to his, which is down in the cellar, probably due to him prioritizing production; but he does have at least some riverside grassland where he could've placed cottages. My flood plains are superior to that, admittedly, but also very slow to get started, especially if you have no forests at all for granary chopping. He also had an island available to settle peacefully, instead he opted to take mine.

Btw I didn't mention research - I am still working quite a few hamlets and villages, and managed to finish Maths. But Construction is on the order of 30 turns now, and I don't see that improving, rather the other way, as I'm forced to keep whipping and will lose the gems, which brings us to the turn 94 report:

Cairo played a 2.5 minute turn (!) and decided to camp the jungle:



I decided that letting him catch up with reinforcements wouldn't improve my situation, so here's more blood for the blood god:


He was pleased with the offering, handing me victory in one 24% fight and all the 70-85% ones.   

Aftermath:


I had made a dumb move the turn before, else I would've had one more axe in range and wiped that stack (the one from the SW, now it's 2 axes and a spear who came from the city). I also resisted the temptation to throw spears against the remaining stack, to possibly win 2vs1 (C1 spear had 9% odds, the GG C2 20%). So an incomplete victory, but still nice, he can't really go on the offensive here for a while. I had to use the axes on the galley though, and here is where I made another mistake:



he pulled his galleys with the presumed swords on them into the city. Opening the turn I didn't check there and rather used the northern trireme to scout the capital. I could and should have safely joined the triremes on the tile NW of the city. Now he can try to break through (I don't know where the fourth galley is, possible hiding SE of the city) and unload at my cap, where next turn there'll be just 2 axes (and a couple of spears and the archer). Enitrely avoidable . Although I doubt he goes for it, as he could have done it this turn already. Maybe he'll try to get his boats through from the south? Wouldn't make sense really, as I would be able to intercept at least one galley, in any case I should be able to have enough axes around.

[Miguelito]

btw anybody remember how I went to great pains to get a missionary into Nilakantha 2 turns before the attack? Now that's giving Cairo free culture, so in ten turns he'll have that third ocean tile in his culture and I will have no option left for naval defense . Should've built a monument, or just axes all game.

[TBW]

I also resisted the temptation to throw spears against the remaining stack, to possibly win 2vs1 (C1 spear had 9% odds, the GG C2 20%).

In my experience I'd say that combat odds under 10% actually means 0%, 20-98% means about 50% actual odds, and 98%+ means 99%.

[pindicator]

I also resisted the temptation to throw spears against the remaining stack, to possibly win 2vs1 (C1 spear had 9% odds, the GG C2 20%).

In my experience I'd say that combat odds under 10% actually means 0%, 20-98% means about 50% actual odds, and 98%+ means 99%.

Too true

[Charriu]

Ok I'm hooked and will investigate the code. I'm curious if the game is actually lying to us

[Miguelito]

I also resisted the temptation to throw spears against the remaining stack, to possibly win 2vs1 (C1 spear had 9% odds, the GG C2 20%).

In my experience I'd say that combat odds under 10% actually means 0%, 20-98% means about 50% actual odds, and 98%+ means 99%.

 
what I actually meant though was to send in a spear at 9%, hope for some hits, then a second spear could get odds, and afterwards one wounded Immortal would be up for grabs. But of course the first spear could just bounce off as well, and I've kind of strained my luck already  

turn 96 (95 was played in the morning and not terribly interesting):



Cairo has an interesting choice to make here. He probably didn't expect me to get two new more triremes this turn. He now can:

• move back at the sight of the trireme. Then I can pick off one galley at the clams, with a high risk of losing the trireme afterwards, although I can send 2 avengers behind (even hammer trades are not in my favor in this war)
  
• follow his likely original plan and move to unload on the grassland S of Nataraja. He doesn't see yet the tile is covered (shock axe, 2 C1 spears). He can then try to attack that tile amphibiously, but assuming he has mostly city raider swords on the galleys it'll cost him. I'm very likely to sink any ship that he moves up, with the two triremes coming in from behind
  
• try to brute force through the trireme/galley and attack the cap from the boats. He won't do that, but if he does I have enough units in the city most likely, assuming he doesn't just sink both ships on first try (and he sees that)
  
• move further west, to offload on the grassland cottage, or on the elephant. That would make defense tricky, particularly the latter option, as I'd still have to cover the cap before him unloading. He could simultaneously move in on Mahadeva, to bind the axes I have standing there. I have an axe whippable at Ajati, But would likely lose the city. He loses all his units though, and I sink one boat before he can unload (would probably also try the 32% shot with the galley, as the reward would be to sink two units)
  

A sneaky move would have been to hide the new trireme 2S of the cap, but the risk of him then just breaking through my galley and ambushing the cap was too high for my taste.
In an ideal world he goes for the second (or third, lol) option.
An attack on Mahadeva from both sides could also work for us.

You can also see that I cleared that jungle NW of Mahadeva. All my units should get odds on defense against his (there are five workers on that tile, so stakes are high). I also want to clear the jungle W of the city, and get a mine on the last riverside hill. It'll take a while until I can work those horses again, as he's bringing reinforcements as well. Next turn there'll also be a new axe in Gangadhara.

Btw I had a peace offer from Cairo the last two turns. Not going to happen as long as his capital stands and I can't feel safe on the seas, after getting boated twice. So, never?

Some fun:


It would be a net positive for me, with the forge in Nataraja. Bit silly though, as he'll likely lose the silver soon enough; Commodore took another large city. I can offer the same to superdeath or FT, who don't have ivory, and now that I think of it, it might even make a little bit of sense for FT, who was the first to Currency and might build a market. I actually seem to remember that he has 2 silver sources, then it would really make sense for him


You can also see that the capital is closing in on the Great Engineer, finally. Assuming it'll still be standing in five turns, there's the question what to do with it. Pyramids haven't been built and seem a pretty obvious choice, as we'd love the Rep happiness just like the PS unit production boost, and we're still SPI.
If it is Mids, next question is where to put it. Nataraja is the obvious choice, if we lose that the game is lost and we don't need them anyways. Mahadeva is similar; additional culture would be helpful, but otoh it could entice Commodore to attack. I'd love to plant them in Gangadhara, as the culture would allow us to finally get that gold online, and it would be a very thematic location , but it would just entice FT and/or Comm to send in the horses, and I can't have that.
There is still the option of the Machinery bulb though: We'd get a military tech edge on Cairo, who has abysmal research, and crossbows would also counter Comm for when he gets his early Samurais (I'd still hope he has better targets anyway). Crossbows are awfully expensive though (well, for our prodcution ceiling), so I'm not sure whether  we'd actually be able to build them in significant numbers.

[pindicator]

Mids for Police State seems a great idea. I would like Crossbows as well but the extra production boost from Police State just seems mandatory considering how bloody this game has been.

[pindicator]

I think I'm going to do an Ice Crash berserker tomorrow and play around with the new slams, war cries, and maybe even go staff for block and get that new keynode Glancing Blows. Just mix up as much of the new stuff as possible

[Miguelito]

Cairo keeps proposing peace, but I don't see what it would serve me. I can try to block my(!) island so he doesn't get the routes, delaying his Construction ETA, and that also keeps his swords where I can see them (nope, it doesn't, he can always escape to a stupid ocean tile , but at least I can monitor better). As long as I don't attack I feel reasonably safe at Mahadeva (now with a barracks) with our super axes and incoming Police State, and also able to defend against his boats. That is, as long as he doesn't get a military tech advance. Speaking of, we start the report (turn 99) with graphs this time:










Let's ignore what the big boys are doing and just focus on Cairo. He's turning around his economy 180 degrees, apparently trying to generate commerce and growth instead of his massive production. Of course, he shouldn't really have mature cottage, so his capabilities are limited. He also hasn't been increasing his power anymore. So he's going for tech, most likely military, either Metal Casting to get parity on the seas, or Construction. His GNP has been so abysmal all game that I would still suppose we'd be first to Construction, even with all the detours I've taken on the religious line (but still some 10-15 turns away). At least Masonry's good for that as well. MC I don't know, I'll just try to blockade the island and keep buidling units, so he either answers and drives up his costs, or we might actually get enough units so we can risk an invasion of the island before catapults.

The war has been skirmishes meanwhile, going in our favour:


He had retreated the boats so I picked off one. He didn't fight back (would've cost him another galley, as my other triremes would've catched the killer), so now that trireme has an open promotion, which most probably I'll use for Nav2.



Pesky spear wanted to keep looking at our cap





Commodore got an event that does something good for his triremes. The good news is that it doesn't improve his HAs or something, the unwelcome but expected part is that he now has Metal Casting. Remember, at Machinery (a lot more expensive than MC of course) he gets his Samurais. I can only count on having catapults by then, as I'm firmly decided now to build mids for PS. We have just two luxes so the happy cap impact from Rep would be very noticeable, but we need production, and we wouldn't actually have as many prod tiles to grow on. 
You can also see Commodore saying hello with a sentry chariot, although, does that actually see more across the jungle than his culture? Commodore has Rasko down to one city now, and I think he got his capital (as Rasko lost 74 points on the last conquest it can't have been a little settlement), and also signed peace with Cornflakes. So he might be looking for a new job for his army. Still would be awkward for him with Cairo's army hanging around. If he comes with lots of HAs, we have built mostly axes lately for evident reasons, but still have 2 GG spears and some other from before the Cairo war. We might hold on to Mahadeva, but if he wheels southwards it would be devastating, at least before cats.

Looking on the shot you'll also notice that I'm building a missionary at Nataraja. What you don't see is even worse, I'm going for a library at Gangadhara. I feel guilty about not building units, BUT I really need to expand those borders, netting us 2 gold resources and more FPs. The city otherwise could keep whipping out an axe every now and then, that doesn't sound too expiring. It's working 5 cottages now (one at village already, and 2 hamlets), so the library has some benefit there, and with the food surplus it can also work the scientists for a later GA (although, due to the happy cap, that might come at the expense of FP cottages, but the other cities can also take some of those). So the missionary is for the OR bonus, as otherwise even a 3pop whip would take forever, and also the happy is going to be very welcome. After that, I'll be good and build axes and boats at Nataraja again (and them mids).

Cornflakes has Calendar, so I'm offering marble for iron:

 

He just built the Gardens (Babylon RP), so he might not want a wonder right now, but if it matches his plans, I'd like 2-3 swords for an eventual island invasion, and I'd be happy for him to get any wonder he wants. He's our best hope to keep FT and Comm distracted, one of whom will eventually end this game for us.Wildcard is Ruff, who isn't doing as bad either, but behind those 3.