WW 31 Game Thread PARANOIA

[Qgqqqqq]

Quickly, with likely wall of text to come, but I'm not seeing in there a belief that I am scum rather then just having played badly. I always hate it when people phrase something leading out of that when it serves no purpose, but what is your actual read on me?

And because I'm sure my next post will et a bit angry, I'd just like to say that I loved the "counting down" you did with those quotes!

[Qgqqqqq]

My point was either that I didn't understand everything you wrote in the scenario post or that I must be an idiot because I didn't understand everything you wrote, I suppose. It was an observation, what other reason do I need to say so? I don't know if you'd have played it differently or not, this game is all I know of your WW style. Besides, you probably covered just about every hypothetical situation possible, or impossible, in that post anyway. If you are (or were you) scum, those were the scenarios as you saw them. Evidently you saw more scenarios than I do because I didn't follow all of them. So what of it? Mountain(molehill). Everything in this game is fodder for that it seems.

What I was trying to do was point out how inane my play was from a scum perspective, because of the knowledge that a scum would have of what was going on on the block. Of course, I could've just been playing very badly, but I'd like to think people think more of me then that.

Honestly, I didn't really think about my results. I consider them all-but useless and didn't really think it was worth it.
I mean, for your idea, I assume you mean the novice result, no?

I don't mean any result in particular, I mean all results in general. If the point of the game is to build cases against people so we can convict (lynch) them, I would think we could use all available information to make the best case in order to have the best chance of convicting (lynching) the right player. We've been dreadful at that so far, and who knows if better information could have helped? We really can't have done worse, honestly. The first real win we had was Catwalk yesterday and he wasn't even a communist! (That claim assumes Bob handed us on day 1, which is contestable I'll grant -- so maybe Catwalk was our second win). But to your question, I meant all information you could have given, I wasn't thinking about a particular case.

Information comes in different blobs - Rowain tacitly taking responsibility for the heals was denying information to the village, but may have protected Jowy for longer. The same with me letting people assume I was boosting people. I don't think we can talk about these things in generic terms - I'm not claiming that my keeping those results to myself was any sort of masterplay to keep the wolves on their toes, but I dispute the claim that they were things that ought to have been posted ASAP. And I dispute very strongly that there is any case or point in this game where knowing where they weren't that night will prove valuable. Most cases don't actually need a wealth of information, because at its heart werewolf is a game where what people say matters.

Well how would knowing that Surnise089 or Ichabod didn't target someone who wasn't killed have effected his tracking desicion?

It couldn't have effected Serdoa's tracking decision, he turned that in the same night you turned in your watching decision, independent of you I assume unless you guys are able to coordinate somehow that the rest of us aren't aware?

I am talking about future tracking desicions, had I never revealed these results. Is there any situation in which this would help in the future?

Ding ding ding, this is what I meant. It's not about a tell. It wasn't about what you knew or could figure out, it's what the entire village could do with the information, crowd sourced and pieced together with whatever information town players may have gleaned from their actions the previous night. I'm not good enough at theory crafting this game to say what could have happened, but maybe Serdoa is missing one vital clue to having some kind of insight that could lead to a great question to ask of someone, and your no result was somehow the clue he needed to get the investigation going down the right track. Do I know what that would be? Of course not, if I knew that I could be good at this game or maybe would be able to catch someone (as in, who wasn't an obvious liar...Catwalk ). But playing village is a team game, it isn't just surviving, it's killing the enemy at any and every cost until you win the game. If the cost is giving up proprietary information that maybe exposes yourself (somehow? How?) but could help you catch scum, seems like that would be worth it. But maybe this is getting too far down the worm hole for a guy playing in his first game, maybe you're right and bringing more information into the light is worse for village. But if that's the case it sure is counter intuitive, because in a courtroom the prosecutor brings the hammer when he sees a nail.

This is a lovely little story ( I mean this seriously, it sounds rather inspirational), but do tell me what the entire town could have worked out, from knowing two players didn't visit a player that didn't have anything happen to them in the night. Like seriously, the only thing is if one of them claimed to have visited who I knew they hadn't...which is something I can work out on my own. And again, where did I mention that this would expose myself or be of any cost to my survival?? Please don't put words in my mouth. This information I have yet to see a scenario in which it could or will be useful?
I never said bringing information to light is definitively bad for the village. But neither is it definitively good for the village, and please don't get high and mighty about what I did. As you said earlier "Mountain(molehill)"
And as I mentioned in the previous post, I'm not seeing any genuine belief that I am scum here. I'm seeing criticism both implicit and explicit for my actions, but I don't see anywhere how these actions are scummy.

...unless we fall under the assumption that I am faking this role, in which case why not just say Jowy (not going to be using another role so won't be caught in a lie but remains a decent person to watch for) and sunrise (who you're assuming is my scumbuddy)?

I never said or intended to suggest you were faking the role. I said that I'd have done it differently, irrespective of whether you believe my rationale was convenient 20/20 revisionism or honestly given. And I wasn't lamenting your choice of people to watch for, it ought to have been whoever you thought was the scummiest and most likely to try and kill someone, which is presumably who you chose unless I missed it in your last wall of text (and I know, pot meet kettle with this post...What can I say, wife and kid both already went to bed and PB11 is joyfully OVER, I have time tonight).

While I'm on the subject, why would I as a communist, claim watcher when Bob already had it? Why not make something else up? Something which would be easier to fit into "Matter Eater" (like a bomb which eats all that attacks it) and less likely to lead to a confrontation with fellow scum?

Because maybe you both really were watchers? I'm not getting into meta arguments about how duplicate roles in this game effect the rotations of the moon, or Brick's state of intoxication (or not) when he assigned roles, or whether he used random.org to pick teams or let his infant son pick for him. Why would I claim a title named something as weird (or boring) as Detect Mutant Power? It's just what Brick wrote on the sticky note before he slapped me in the forehead with it. Just go with it.

That section wasn't addressed to you then, but novice in paticular and at least Serdoa have voiced doubt over my claim for quite a while now, for reasons I don't really understand. And also because if you assume I didn't lie about my role, then why did I need to wait for people to claim actions before giving my own? Why not just report genuine ones? Novice gave this reasoning and I'm really not liking it.

The rest will be responded to shortly, apologies.

[Serdoa]

Serdoa:
N4: Jowy - rendered useless by everyone being reduced permanently to one clone at end of D5
N5: You. Unless my updated orders didn't process, since I'd initially picked Jowy again as being extemely useful once everyone was on only one clone. Did you have two watches last night?
N6: I'll pass on revealing this, since it would tell people who has two uses of their ability in the coming night. They should know who they are though. Unless the fact that I accidentally titled the PM with orders 'N5' rather than 'N6' invalidated them :/

To answer your question: No two watches for me.

And forgive me, but I find it hard to believe you Mattimeo. On N5 you updated your orders but it didn't process and apparently you already had expected that, given the way you phrased it in the quote above. And on N6 it again didn't work, most likely. I mean look at the role-list, there are at best 2 players you could sensibly consider to give a second use and one of those hasn't hit anything with his power so far.

Also, I revealed whom I followed for every day. Why didn't you ask when I did for N6 what happened to the second shot? I think that is something that definitely would bear questioning - well, except, see above, when you already 'know' that it didn't work, so no reason to ask for it.

Mattimeo

At the end of the day, knowing all the factors can be more helpful to the scum rather then village and I don't see how this is a tell in either direction,...

That's a nice sentence Qgqqqqq, but care to explain why that would be more helpful to scum? In this exact game, in the situation we are in. Because I really can't see it.

While I'm on the subject, why would I as a communist, claim watcher when Bob already had it? Why not make something else up? Something which would be easier to fit into "Matter Eater" (like a bomb which eats all that attacks it) and less likely to lead to a confrontation with fellow scum?

No one doubts that this is your role. We doubt your targeting and for me it is similar to my suspicion on Mattimeo: It seems the way you use it, is hurting the village. I think that was also the point novice implicitly made.

Apart from that Qgqqqq: No one attacks you personally at all, but is just pointing out that the use of your ability was suboptimal in a way that hints at scum deliberately doing it. Also as I pointed out earlier, you only revealed after you pretty much knew what you could state without someone telling us that you lie and the reason you bring forth for that is

- you didn't really think much about the results
- it could hurt the village revealing too much information

Which doesn't really match. If you think the results are worthless there is nothing to hurt the village with either. And if you think so you should rather have stated it when we made the mass-reveal as that helped scum certainly more than if they are informed that your scan did not hit one of them. I guess you not telling in thread that you found a wolf is telling them that already

@serdoa - A few pages back you were listing clone kills. Did you leave the kill on me out intentionally? I'm not taking issue if you did, I just want to make sure you didn't overlook that datapoint.

You were killed as well by a delayed kill from Azarius.

(And I find it funny that two players apparently forgot that Azarius killed them. If I was in a bad mood, I would expect scum sunrise trying to help his scumbuddy Qgqqqqq to deflect my argument that it is unbelievable that he forgot that he was killed by our town-SK).

[Qgqqqqq]

That's a nice sentence Qgqqqqq, but care to explain why that would be more helpful to scum? In this exact game, in the situation we are in. Because I really can't see it.

Say there is a scum that knows that I am suspicious of him, but doesn't know who I targeted. He performed the kill last night, but obviously he can't say he visited Merovech as that invites suspicion. So who does he claim to visit? There's a possibility he chooses a player who I had visited, that his claiming what he did will be incorrect. So instead he might dither, or claim to do nothing at all, as Ichabod has. Its not paticularly likely, but it is something that could happen. While some results remain unrevealed there can be a contradiction, and scum have to try to take account for this.

Most importantly, I didn't really think that much about the results or think they could tell us anything. I thought the only dredge of usefullness in them lay in not revealing them, not that they were important enough not to do so.

Also as I pointed out earlier, you only revealed after you pretty much knew what you could state without someone telling us that you lie and the reason you bring forth for that is

Well firstly this relies on assuming Sunrise and I are both scum. But secondly, why does this matter if I'm truly a watcher? I must've visited novice or else I am opening myself to a tracker reveal, so why wouldn't I just claim what I actually did? This is why I assumed you doubted my claim, that you thought I would've lied about it.

I was saying that it isn't so impossible to hit on a possible killer with this few people left, considering how many people you surely could have ignored given their likely town-ness. If there's 5 scum alive they'd have already won, right? So there's max 4 and possibly only 3, depending how how Brick's son issued the roles. If you had just under a 50/50 shot guessing blind, striking Serdoa and Merovech and maybe one other strong town lean of yours off the list of suspects, maybe you just have bad RNG luck, or the commies are clever, or they hunt villagers with silencers on their pistols. I'm not criticizing the results, I'm criticizing the process (damn you Nick Saban!). Maybe I'm being unfair, if so, sorry. I just don't see at all how their next target will be any more obvious than it was last night, so your odds of catching them with the 2/N targeting is lowered by the fact that you don't even know who to watch the next time around.

I don't see how this is anything but criticising the results. Yeah, I feel pretty sure that if I'd got the victim right I had a good shot at finding the killer. So what is your point? I think I do know who to watch next time BTW, but I still fail to see any point in this entire paragraph.

As for Merovech himself, I agree with you in that I also didn't have much of a read on him from his posts in this game. In fact, right now I can't really remember a single thing he ever said that stands out. But I got a STRONG town read on him from his ACTIONS. That was what made him so valuable, and what would have made targeting him with your watch role so obvious. It's better to have a 2/N chance of catching the killer than 0. Sorry if that rankles, but if there's only one bullet proof vest in town why wouldn't the enemy snatch it away at the first chance?

WIFOM. And I really didn't think it was that obvious.


When we get down to it, what are people criticising? That I didn't guess the kill right when the whole world was certain? That I'm criminally bad at using roles? I'm really not liking the lack of any non-meta argument being thrown at me. This is likely my last post of the day. If you do end up killing me, don't forget the novice in your back pocket.

[Mattimeo]

Well, given you're showing no signs of having a double shot for tonight, Serdoa, I'm thinking that maybe the Anti-Mutant Lotion I applied to myself in the updated N5 orders may have removed my mutant ability, rather than protecting me for a night as hoped. Though I didn't get anything informing me of that. So it's either bastard GM, an undiscovered roleblocker out there somwhere, or the GM not implementing the orders I sent :/

Don't think there's anything there for me to actually defend with, if you want to lynch me for that.

[novice]

Is the deadline tonight?

[BRickAstley]

Is the deadline tonight?

Yes it is

[BRickAstley]

Tally as of post 2297:

2 votes: Sunrise089 (Jowy, Qgqqqqq)
2 votes: Qgqqqqq (novice, Ichabod)
1 votes: Mattimeo (Serdoa)

Voting history:

Sunrise089

Sunrise089

Qgqqqqq

Sunrise089

Qgqqqqq

Qgqqqqq

Ichabod

Jowy

unvote

Mattimeo

[Jowy]

This game is now 3rd biggest on the forum, soon 2nd!

[Ichabod]

Can you explain your role again, Qgq? You choose a player to watch for and 2 other players to see if they visited that first player. If you hit one right, what info do you get? That the visit happened or a bit more info (I have a memory that you said you'd also get the name of the role?)... Is that it?

Spacetyrantxenu, I wasn't trying to imply there was any sort of conspiracy involved, just musing on the fact that you as a communist would likely have missed that there was a lying role simply because you seriously weren't expecting to find one. It wasn't really being considered as a tell on you either way, just something that fitted on inspection.

One meta point, the loss of clones makes me find Jowys role very believable, as a powerful doctor who's ability can/will be lost (I suspect there were other factors that might have caused us to lose our clones), but makes novice's role make even less sense, especially as a town role.

Last night I watched Serdoa, the only one who's innocence I feel certain on, to see if Sunrise or Ichabod visited him. The night before I had the item as well, so I used the Recon Boomerang on Rowain and watched novice to see if Catwalk or Space (ha, funny that I observed the two people being discussed yesterday visited him. The end result of this was all negative, along with every other result I've received which was part a of why I didn't jump out with them. Part B was a vague feeling that in the absence of any results the only use I can get from my role is to make scum a little jumpy about their actions and what they claim.

That's not very good reasoning, apart from the vibe. I will say that I do have some time before I go, and I won't stop posting altogether , just largely. Why is my working against the Catwalk lynch scummy? I mean, scum know that we have two villagers on the block, in which case they don't need to take a strong stance at all, or Space is scum, in which case there's no reason to support the other side? Were you thinking of scum working for town cred in an attempt to save a a villager who tragically lynchs anyway?
In which case for the first, why would I choose to become active after relative inertia for a while - if I'm scum then assuming Space is not scum (the only thing that makes sense IMO) I have no motivation to spur me out of apathy, I can just ignore the lynch, contribute minimally while villagers scrap. That's meta of course, but I think it's worth mentioning. For the second, if I'm scum trying to defend (what scum assume to be) a villager for cred, why should I turn at the end, or present anything but a strong stance? I can assume Catwalk will be lynched at that stage (6/4) unless there is a late push (which would just make the participants look particularly scummy and there was no hint of this previously) so what scum-I should do in this situation is strongly affirm his Catwalk-saving stance, rail against the cruel village for doing this and making sure Space is lined up as a lynch for the morrow. By doing what I did I presented uncertainty and ruined a lot of potential cred, as well as weakening what could have been a strong case on the next day to present righteous fury and bawl for the lying spacetyrants blood. If I am a villager on the other hand, there is no such preplanning and knowledge (this is, incidentally, why I enjoy playing as scum much more), simply a townie trying to work out what to do, and eventually finding Catwalks odd search for a compromise candidate enough to swing him away from a preferred lynch target.
Wow that was a lot of what-I-would-have-done Still, I hope you see that what I did there was not what I would have done as scum - I don't expect a village lean from what was, at the end of the day, poor play, but I was surprised that you found it scummy.
Also, the same question I asked Jowy earlier - if scum, how are you thinking I was killed night 2? By SK or fellow scum?

I don't think we should let Space off, but I agree that Sunrise089 could do with some pressure.

I didn't like this post. The explanation of the scenarios is just too much justification, which I feel is a scum sign when talking about Qgq. You entered this day with this whole "I'm going to be lynched" vibe, even if no one attacked you yet. This sort of preemptive defenses are more scum like - not saying villagers don't defend themselves, but they usually do it after they are attacked by "stupid arguments".

And I disagree about your scenarios. Scum would rather have Xenu lynched first, in case he's a villager. Because that would be an automatic lynch on catwalk afterwards, who was also not scum.

It wasn't clear to me that he was going to die last night, and nor was I certain he was innocent. Why are you so sure he would die?
And as for your last post - Though given that we expect him to be scum too the target to watch as well as the targets to watch for are imo not well chosen at all. - If we, myself included, suspect him to be scum, then why is he a bad target to watch for? The same for Ichabod - in my place, who else would you have watched for?

Okay I didn't realise Azarius had hit me.

I don't even understand your role and I can't say anything about it right now, due to hindsight bias.

Qgqqqqq

Ichabod, is this your standard method of asking for more information from people? You've done it twice today and possibly on previous days as well. Is there something specific in Q's replies you don't like or is it the general tone of his posts today?

I just don't have the needed heart to crusade against people anymore. That's because I realized a long time ago that there's no way to be certain in this game. So, if a lot of it is gut feel, why should I think my gut feel is better than other people's gut feel? In this particular game, though, this feeling is even stroger, because I'm playing a very bad game and I'm not even paying that much attention. I'm just trying not to hinder the village too much, so I'm trying not to be mislynched or mod-killed. I have to vote, but I'm not going to really try and change someone else's mind considering I'm not satisfied with my own votes.

---

I voted Sunrise because I felt his play in general was scummy, but I may very well be wrong. Qgq play on this day seems very scummy, so I voted him after reading those posts. That single post by mattimeo today was also pretty bad.

Who did you tracked yesterday, Serdoa? I didn't see you claiming it. I wonder what would be the result if you tracked Qgqqq, would you get three results?