WW 19 Game Thread - Mobster Mayhem - GAME OVER

[Qgqqqqq]

Sorry crosspost. with rowain .

Sigh.
Just like with novice you make it too black and white.
Just as I'm not confident he's village, I'm not confident you're evil, if I was a vig. I wouldn't shoot you,for example
However I find your attacks on novice and the while premise of your mislynch is better then keeping Miller card in play argument inherently flawed, and therefore scummy.

[Qgqqqqq]

That said I dislike the way that issue has distracted so much attention.
Id like to hear more frommerovech

[Ryan]

Mjw : your winning and my insincere playing is showing ok. Your a waste of time.

Just for my understanding what guarantees that Novice will pass the card ?

[Ryan]

Already answered all the questions you guys asked . Not sure what more I can say.

[novice]

Rowain, what is the probability that my play is a scum gambit, in your opinion?

[zakalwe]

Sigh ... what I was saying is that there is only one reason a scum would say they had the fool card.

What would this reason be? if a different scum had the fool card. Therefore novice would have either no item or something else, would have been seered wolf, w/e, and could argue village. Meanwhile the wolf WITH the fool card could just play normally (or suspiciuosly) be seered, and be seen as village. If people think that wolf-novice has the card, then 2 seer proof wolves could be masquerading as village.

(this is why it would be dangerous)

This makes more sense, but also looks like a revision of your original argument. Like Novice says, why would we assume the fool card was destroyed? That was seemingly the centerpiece of your original argument.

I do see the point by Serdoa/Novice that a villager might also get his wires crossed. So maybe it isn't a very strong scum tell. It still feels like the closest thing I've got, so far.

Agree with this, I haven't seen the usual village zakalwe yet.

This is what people say in every game that I'm a villager. For what it's worth, I don't like your play much either, so far. You're just bouncing your vote around.

Waterbat's vote is also weak. If you were baiting, Lewwyn, then maybe take a closer look at those two. If you genuinely think I'm suspicious, you'll have to be more specific before I can defend.

I find it very strange that Zak is not talking about Ryan at all. Ryan has posted a bunch of bad stuff and for Zak not to say anything is very strange. Care to explain?

May I remind you that the last time I was posting, it was to question Ryan, and you then accused me of inflating my post count? I have been questioning him gently because I think he could be a noob who is struggling a bit both with reading comprehension and general gameplay. But after my experience with Q last game, (Commodore's first game also comes to mind) I don't want to rush into that conclusion. In short, I'm still trying to get a read on him. To say that I have ignored him is simply false. He does keep jamming his foot in his mouth, that's for sure.

I think the novice situation needs to be resolved.

So Rowain.

I almost hesitate to comment on this, because I'm tiring of the whole subject, but what exactly is it that needs to be resolved? You make it sound like one of them must be scum and the other must be town. How did you reach that conclusion?

[Selrahc]

There are two wagons at the moment.

Rowain: Bizarre insistence that the card is the thing we should be focusing all our energies on, and that the only thing to do is to lynch the holder.

Tasunke: Some odd jokes. A possible wolf slip, or possible confused statement.

Hmm.
Rowain.

Tasunke's comments seem like they are ill-considered. But that isn't out of character. There could be malevolence, but I think there probably isn't. Rowain's actions though, I can see something darker underneath.

I disagree with his reaction against the card. If the card is really such a problem for the village, it can easily be disposed of by dumping it onto someone who is likely to be lynched or nightkilled, without killing Novice. The issue is nowhere near as binary as he is making it out to be.

But my issue is really whether or not *he* believes what he is saying. I'm not so sure he does. Now I'm thinking in particular of some statements Rowain has made in past games about confirmed villagers as a wolf. In the FFH game, he was quite annoyed that as a wolf his kills were more or less proscribed into killing confirmed villagers day after day, and that the game was basically lost by that. So as a wolf, I think he would be both much more against the idea of anybody being put into the village camp, and more willing than most wolves to sacrifice himself to stop such a thing. From his wolfish perspective, letting an actual villager be perceived widely as a villager locks in a kill, and lessens the wolf power to influence. By attacking so strongly, the desired effect is to cast a pallor of suspicion over Novice even if he doesn't manage to secure the lynch. The only thing that could go wrong would be his own lynch in reaction... but starting from such a position might well be unpalatable to him as a wolf.

It's not a sure thing, but day 1 never is. I think I could fairly see Rowain acting like he has done as a wolf.

[Rowain]

Rowain, what is the probability that my play is a scum gambit, in your opinion?

Fast answer:
50:50

longer answer:
I have not done any chance-calculations. You are the player to do such a thing as scum especially if you have another strong player in the lineup to help you so I can't rule it out. Which makes it the best move to lynch you (till we find a smoking gun).

But the real answer is: If you are village where are the snitches? I'm still the opinion that it better to lynch a villager with the card than to lynch a villager without it.
So who has a good enough chance to be scum to outweight the risk of lynching a villager? Our back and forth has drawn too much talk so far (which makes it in itself already a good move for scum) but I think there are some names worth a closer inspection.

OOI how big are the chances that my play is a scumploy in your opinion?

[Ryan]

Well after reading the wiki post about millers . I have an understanding of novices play. Bah can I cancel my vote ?

[Bigger]

you can always cancel your vote before the deadline. you do it by voting for someone else .