WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[waterbat]

my first impression...
wtf.

then:

if you get night killed so be it.
maybe you could even actively try to get mislynched if you wanted to use the power.

Don't understand the urgency or motive for claiming now.

[pindicator]

Its just all too convenient for novice in this game. He was second behind zak in gaining credit for thestick's lynch, then to further solidify his innocence he got post-restricted. To build it further, Meiz got post restricted, with a restriction so crazy that it 'had to be true'.

Yet noone has been post-restricted since and no post-restricting person has been found. I don't think a post-restrictor role even fits in a traditional 'mafia' set of roles, of which every other role that has been revealed is at least a twist on a conventional role.

See TT, I look at that and think "obviously wolves are trying to set novice up" - in fact, it makes me think Meiz is more likely scum than novice (and that is more to the combination of Meiz's resurgence in energy invested in this game timing nicely with the post restriction).

I tend to believe TT's claim because he hinted at a power role earlier (and selrahc called him out on it IIRC).

[Twinkletoes89]

Don't understand the urgency or motive for claiming now.

Did you even read my posts?

Basically I see it as getting to the point where its too risky to use.

Worst case scenario - I die and take a villager with me

If that happens a day or two from now, then the game is as good as over.

I do it now, then if it happens, the village is in difficulty but still has a bit of leeway to win

[waterbat]

Bah. If we're in trouble a few days from now, you'd have a better chance of hitting a mafia. Ideally that's way at you want right, the best chance at hitting one?

[waterbat]

Although I fail at risk management. Often.

[waterbat]

Did you even read my posts?

I didn't say your reasoning/motivation for claiming was missing. i said i didnt understand it.


Complete random chances of hitting a mafia now (assuming 4 left):

4/16

assuming you aren't a unanimous lynch, you might get better odds - maybe 3 mafia on your lynch count of 8 ?

in 2 days if we've mislynched both days and you are on the block for the third:

4/12 now 3/6 or so if you go for one of your lynchers randomly.

of course, these odds get even more drastically better when you put some reason into your targets instead of randomly picking them.

[Injera]

If I thought a novice lynch could happen, then yes.

I don't think you've thought this through. Who exactly do you think will vote to lynch you in order for you to kill novice that wouldn't vote to to lynch novice in the first place? And killing novice indirectly by mislynching you instead of just lynching him is strictly bad. So just drop this whole "mislynch me so I can kill", it's just distracting.

[Twinkletoes89]

I'm not dropping it.

I haven't locked in to killing novice, I'm merely presenting an argument that he's my favourite right now.

And I think that this is something worth doing, for so many reasons.

[Gaspar]

I cannot think of a possible reason to lynch you, nor for you to do this other than not wanting your PR to be wasted. You're a fairly obvious townie so just having you alive is strictly better than killing you, for numbers. I'm not saying I can't be convinced on novice, but I am saying I can't be convinced on you.

[BRickAstley]

Official Lynch Vote Count

Pindicator - 3 - Injera, Jkaen, Meiz
Lewwyn - 3 - Gaspar, Ichabod, Waterbat
Azza - 2 - Catwalk, Lewwyn
Injera - 1 - tasunke
tasunke - 1 - Selrahc
Catwalk - 1 - Pindicator
Gaspar - 1 - novice
Selrahc - 1 - Molach
Twinkletoes89 - 1 - Twinkletoes89

Players not voting: Azza, Rowain