WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[Rowain]

I think it is better to not lynch TT.

2 reasons: a) Since WW14 I absolutly don't trust him with a gun
b) It is far better to force nightkills on scum. With TT beeing nearly confirmed villager they can't easily kill whom they realy want and from my experience as wolf this is always bad for scum.

Now a warning:
I will have very little internet-access during the next days. I should be able to read and post abit but far less than in the past days.

for now to bring a 3rd name up: Azza

[Lewwyn]

Wrote this before RB went down.

what's your take on the novice "framing the narrative" argument that Gaspar put forth? It dovetails with Tasunke or Twinkletoes (have to check) saying things were a bit "too convenient" regarding novice.

I consider novice to be innocent. I don't think he's going to be nightkilled because the longer he's alive the more suspicious he becomes. I don't know if thestick and Matt were bussed, but I do know that novice has made himself the framer and novice's wolf play in the past, has in my opinion been much more quiet.

[Selrahc]

Novice was fairly instrumental in both of our wolf kills, I'm willing to cut him quite a bit of slack for the moment.

[Catwalk]

Clicked the lurker thread by mistake just now, clicked back and didn't see anything.

[Catwalk]

Read through quickly, I'm not in favour of lynching TT at this time. It may be useful later, since it essentially allows for a lynch that is untained by scum. I think it's most useful if we're down to 1 or 3 spare villagers, bigger chance of hitting and more risk of wolves messing up the vote. I do think you revealed a little too soon TT, as you risk being night killed now. I think it's possible TT is scum trying to gain town cred with this, but not likely.

I can definitely see novice being a shrewd wolf, but I can also see him being a villager that the wolves are trying to mislynch by keeping him alive and throwing repeated suspicion. I still don't see any point in investigating him much today.

Sorry for not presenting my Azza case yesterday, I will try to do so soon.

I don't know if thestick and Matt were bussed

We know Mattimeo voted thestick and that he could have gotten Bigger mislynched instead. While this is not proof he was deliberately bussed (starting earlier), it strongly suggests he was.

[novice]

This bugged me at the time, because Ichabod and I basically said the same thing in the thread. There's a whole sequence of posts overnight though where novice appears an aggressive scumhunter, but really more what he's doing is trying to frame the narrative of the game to reflect him in the best possible light - or otherwise known as what Commodore does in every Civ game when its obvious he's fucked up. :oldwink: Obviously he was doing this to set the next days lynch priorities, as evidenced by his immediate push on me, but I actually don't think it makes a lot of sense when scum-hunting to frame the narrative so tightly - ideally, you want to leave things pretty vague so that the scum will screw up. Again, I've highlighted the part about me but this was pretty much the sum of all novice's conversation that night:

"Here, let me tell you what you should think about today's events."

Yeah I guess you nailed it, I was framing the narrative, and I already had you in mind for the next lynch. I didn't say so outright because I wanted to see if anybody else were thinking along the same lines. It seems noone agrees with me, though. The lack of impetus on you is so large that I think it would be a bit farfetched to blaim scum for it, too. So I guess I'll pursue other targets today.

As for putting myself in the best possible light, I guess I may have done that too, it's hard to resist the temptation when I'm in my not-so-humble opinion the village's MVP and people still talk about lynching me in every other post.

---

On to TT, I think Gaspar summarized his claim well:

No, I don't particularly think giving up a lynch for TTs judgement call is a wise decision. Sorry, buddy.

Especially of course given that he wants to lynch me. I think debating this is a waste of bandwidth, but let me just point out two things in TTs last accusation that are factually untrue, since regularly repeated falsehoods tend to be taken for facts. You can look up the evidence yourselves if you feel like it. Untrue statements are bolded. I left out the paranoid wrappings.

Yet noone has been post-restricted since and no post-restricting person has been found. I don't think a post-restrictor role even fits in a traditional 'mafia' set of roles, of which every other role that has been revealed is at least a twist on a conventional role.

When the post-restrictor goes AWOL, novice suddenly leads a late charge to deliver us a mafia member, despite the fact he came up with no arguments of his own.

---

OK, as for who to lynch, I really got the feeling earlier today that Injera was being pushed as a mislynch. To quote Injera and Selrahc:

I see what action(s) were done. Presumably that includes night kills as well.

You know, you made an argument that my role was more powerful than Qg's, which means the fact that I wasn't eaten is suspect, and when I push back you back off, and then come back with an argument that my role wouldn't be useful to the village and vote for me again? At this point I'm pretty sure you're just looking for a reason to vote for me.

/grudgingly withholds retaliation vote

Tasunke

I think Injera has been filed under "Mislynchable", and making a bit of an effort at it is what Tasunke is doing.

Tasunke's game path to date... he got very committed to the action of lynching Sareln, and then got rather down on himself about it. But that's a path of actions that really makes a lot of sense as a wolf. Turn an early wolf lynch into a mislynch on a "suspiciously voting" player. Then act depressed to lower the amount of expectations on you, and explain fluctuations in behaviour.

Tasunke has posted a lot. I've found him semi-helpful, but also kind of self obsessed. I've not really got the kind of village vibes he normally gives out... or the kind of crazed mania he can often evince.

I'm going to look over his posts in a bit more detail, and that might get me to shift off him again, but I think my suspicion is slightly piqued.

Tasunke

[novice]

And I'm still waiting to hear why Novice feels Lewwyn is more innocent than the other Mattimeo voters.

Sorry, forgot to respond to this (again).

Lewwyn just ends up on the villager end if I rank the non-Mattimeo voters based on other evidence and gut feeling. Lewwyn has come across as more contributing than, for example, Gaspar. Whereas Gaspar makes thoughtful posts on the game as a whole, he hasn't gotten into many specifics on suspects. Lewwyn, otoh, made a detailed accusation against Catwalk (which I disagreed with, but he seemed earnest). You should remember it Ichabod, you said Lewwyn's case "made things click" for you.

[Meiz]

You find it extremely possible that someone would get cold feet and switch away and yet find my switching away suspicious?

So what is so special about me again, except for the fact that I'm the easy target?

That's a good point. You're either villager getting cold feet, or wolf making the last effort to save thestick from hanging. Basically the sum of your play is making me lean towards the later, not one specific event.

Btw. you obviously read my post http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....count=2346
So a bit puzzled by your "original" theory that comes a bit later , http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....count=2375

[Catwalk]

My reasons for voting Azza:

Day 1

50: Votes for Waterbat, 6h after game start
174: 24h later, responds to Waterbat saying he was quite suspicious of his opening post
216: 7.5h later, responds to Meiz saying why he's suspicious of Waterbat and that he has nothing else to contribute

End of day 1. Summary: Azza makes no comment on anything going on other than his suspicion on Waterbat. Noone else comments on Waterbat.

Night 1

413: 30h later, formulates his theories against me and uberfish, starts distancing himself from his suspicion of Waterbat
423: Responds to me, saying that my actions are strongly anti-town ("make no sense as an innocent") and that I should consequently be lynched whether I'm scum or town. Responds to Bigger (who commented that Azza was largely absent during day 1 and then posted immediately after that Bigger's accusation) by saying that he has more to go on now. Also states that he's not inclined to post lots, and isn't sure how into the game he'll get.
427: Responds to my statement (1. I stated that I'm suspicious of him suggesting a policy vote based on perceived anti-town behaviour 2. I argued that my actions were not anti-town, I simply guessed wrong 3. I argued it looks like he just wants someone to hang, doesn't care to dig very deeply into that player's guilt or innocence 4. I ask if my argument about thestick hanging too easily was invalid) by saying my attempt to save thestick is too damning to ignore. Basically ignores what I wrote.
430: After I argue that my actions do make sense as a townie, and point out that he pretty much ignored my arguments, he says that he keeps his posts short and sweet. He goes on to say that I'm anti-town because thestick was guilty. If he wasn't guilty, they wouldn't be anti-town.
432: I argue that anti-town behaviour has little to do with whether the lynch candidate is guilty or not, because we have no reliable knowledge about that as villagers. He argues that unpredictable shifting of votes is potentially suspicious and wants to know why I'm constantly changing my vote. Argues that jumping on and off bandwagons makes me dangerous to the town. I retorted that sticking with your vote and not reassessing is anti-town, and that I provided arguments for all my vote switches. No response to this.

End of night 1, will continue this later. Conclusion so far: He lurks with a safe vote, then during the night uses illogical arguments for both defending his actions and throwing dirt at his next safe vote.

[Lewwyn]

Novice I think that's a good call on Tasunke as I mentioned him earlier:

So for now Pindicator.

Need to look more closely at Tas.

In that post I referenced part of Tasunke's post in which he spreads a lot of blame around as well. When I went back and looked at him I think he started smelling a bit fishy today too. I think that given Qg's death that Injera's standing looks a lot better. It confirms that Injera did visit Catwalk and given Catwalk's lack of a PR or any other discernible symptom of having been visited, like death, it stands to reason that Injera was simply "tinkering" him. Reading Tasunke's post on the subject though he was definitely pushing hard.

However, I was thinking of putting Tasunke on the back burner and pushing Pindi or Azza today. The thing that makes me think maybe we push Tasunke is Selrahc's read on Tas. We've been pretty suspicious of Selrahc throughout the game. And since he's finally here and contributing maybe a Tasunke lynch is a better option.

One other thing is that Tasunke hasn't really gotten heat in this game. If the wolves are looking for a member to push Injera for a mislynch, tasunke may be an ideal candidate. Additionally I love lynches that come out of left field during the latter part of the day phase because they are harder for the wolves to predict an set up a defense against. I think the most successful wolf lynches are ones that the wolves aren't suspecting.

I will stay on Pindi for now, but I'm going to be around... probably will be drinking a bit tonight (Friday/Holiday/Just got paid) but I will make a final post/decision before I pass out.