WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[Lewwyn]

I'm going to bed. Please don't kill me.

Oh man. Best WW post ever.

[Gaspar]

Really sucks that Day 1 is the "smoking gun" day so to speak. If we had the exact same situation on Day 2 the info would be so much better, since Day 1 there's so much bs fluff to hide behind.

@novice - can you point out something specific about Tasunke you didn't like Day 1? I just can't see him pulling this off this long, but I could believe him screwing up on Day 1 and then getting pulled back to his "normal" state by the events of Day 1 and some experience scum leaders.

[Injera]

Okay, getting caught up. novice, you voted Tasunke because of his weak case against me when I was a likely target (I don't really disagree) but what about Catwalk?

I'm getting the feeling that Azza has sort of become the safe harbor to park a vote.

Tasunke Files - eh...

"Hmm, at first, after my joke post, I had thought to pretend to be a “Fool” … thereby making people think that by lynching me they would let me win the game. This would be, ultimately, for the purpose of getting a wolf night kill (if possible).
A risky move, but possibly a fun and, if I got night killed, a pro-village one. (as I have no powers)."

I never actually read the Molach Files, but were they written with an audience in mind? These notes seem designed to convince others of his innocence.

[waterbat]

[SIZE="4"]Since RB has been down over an hour this close to deadline, and ETA for its return is unknown, the current WW day will be extended 24 hours. IM this to any other players you know to spread the word, as I don't have contact info for everyone. ~BRickAstley[/SIZE]

[Twinkletoes89]

Here's the rest of my day 1 observations - been waiting for ages for the site to be back up so I can post it.

Right, from the moment that the zak/novice move on thestick started to gain some real traction, these are some of the alternatives that were at least pushed half-heartedly in response.

Gaspar

-> mainly pushed by Injera and Ichabod - then as zak gets vocal against their points, Ichabod quickly backs off

- Ichabod never voted for Gaspar, but he was clearly building on Injera's suspicions
- Injera was also defending thestick - saying that he was being voted for because of being scum in previous games.
- Injera also challenges Bigger & Lewwyn on why they are voting for thestick as he starts to move out in front for being lynched
- Catwalk then appears and votes Gaspar with a very odd post - of which is criticised quickly by Lewwyn and Injera.
- Injera keeps defending thestick, but moves to Novice. (also has stated that he would prefer Zak/Pindicator/Serdoa as mayor over Novice). Situation goes quiet.

- Selrahc appears a few pages later and puts up a vote for Gaspar - using reasoning that Injera/Ichabod had used earlier

Interesting aside

Following this, thestick comes back to argue for his safety, and puts Mattimeo (a fellow mafia member) as his top suspect and votes for him?

Tasunke

- Made an early vanilla villager claim, which had made him look questionable. Despite a few mentions of suspicion, he had garnered few votes.

- Mattimeo appears and votes Tasunke
- Jkaen jumps on in the next post only 6 minutes after Mattimeo.

- This slight push on Tasunke by Mattimeo pushes a lot of votes towards Mattimeo based upon it by 4 innocents. Sareln, Uberfish, Serdoa and myself.

Bigger

- When Mattimeo hits his peak (6 - 4 lead over thestick), Bigger has 2 votes (Rowain who had been on him most of the day, and Lewwyn who had been on him for a while too)

- Matt votes for thestick to bring it to 6-6. waterbat mentions that he thinks Matt is innocent and Bigger suggests he votes for thestick - which Injera jumps on as 'safety in numbers' and votes for Bigger

- Pindicator unvotes from Matt to make it 5 (m) -6 (t) -3 (b) - says he needs to

"check on some things on another person before I follow that accusation on thestick with a vote"

- Sounds fishy!

- Jkaen jumps on Bigger - saying

"Don't want either of those too much, is Bigger in third?"

- which really strikes me as suspicious simply for the way of voting. Makes it 6-5-4

- Serdoa & Arromir move onto thestick, while I unvote from Mattimeo to take him to an 8-4 lead.

- Pindicator then jumps on thestick -

saying "thestick's silence is the most suspicious thing i can spot right now. Why the disappearance?"

- thestick makes his role claim

- Catwalk moves onto Bigger (9-5) where he defends both thestick & Mattimeo

"I think thestick has been voted up too easily for him to be mafia. He's been around (based on PBEM42), just hasn't had time to read and think. If he was mafia, I think he'd have been fed some lines to put out to avoid suspicion. Same goes for Mattimeo."

- Me and Molach jump on thestick to make it 11-5

- No real movement ffor a little while - but Catwalk is still relatively vocal on trying to defend thestick. Pindicator tries to call thestick out to talk more and defend himself and Rowain expresses doubts over the lynch too.

- Catwalk then moves on to Mattimeo.

- 3 innocents - Sareln, Merovech and Uberfish suddenly get nervy over the lynch and all jump on to Bigger to make it 10-7

- Catwalk then jumps on to Bigger and makes it 10-8

- During this, Pindicator votes for Merovech which makes next to no sense at the time, except for the fact that he jumped off of thestick to do it - making it close to a mislynch but not committing all the way to avoid a casting vote and being totally blamed?

Another aside

Rowain asks if its too late for an uberfish bandwagon when thestick hits 8 votes to 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Looking at all this, I am inclined to think this:

Injera looks more suspicious - having been to some extent, vocally involved in moves on alternative lynch targets to thestick. His reasoning for voting Bigger was pretty weak.

Catwalk also does not look very good. It could be a nervous villager, but his involvement in the bigger moves is considerable and he was most vocal in trying to find an alternative to thestick - and although he dallied very briefly on Mattimeo, I feel his revote on Biggerif it got close was inevitable. His odd dalliance with voting for Gaspar is also troubling.

Pindicator is a bit up and down for me. His unvote and reasoning really sticks out, and he jumped off thestick near the end for a wasted vote which is also very confusing. It would have almost been more understandable had he gone for Bigger than waste it on Merovech. If he were mafia, he surely could have put it on Mattimeo (a fellow wolf) so he could possibly justify it later.

Jkaen, for his reasoning on moving over to Bigger is also disconcerting along with his very quick jump onto Tasunke directly after Mattimeo did.

[Ichabod]

Sorry, forgot to respond to this (again).

Lewwyn just ends up on the villager end if I rank the non-Mattimeo voters based on other evidence and gut feeling. Lewwyn has come across as more contributing than, for example, Gaspar. Whereas Gaspar makes thoughtful posts on the game as a whole, he hasn't gotten into many specifics on suspects. Lewwyn, otoh, made a detailed accusation against Catwalk (which I disagreed with, but he seemed earnest). You should remember it Ichabod, you said Lewwyn's case "made things click" for you.

Its more something he does generically in a lot of games - plays erratically until he gets his A-HA moment to avoid being nightkilled early.

I'm going to comment on this two posts at the same time. Novice, I fully admit that Lewwyn's case against Catwalk was very good. His vote against me and the reasoning were also pretty good (it allowed me to defend, for example, which most of the attacks didn't).

But here's the catch: a good player playing as scum can fabricate cases. But, while he can do it, it's not so easy as time goes on. You are afraid of contradicting yourself, afraid of talking about your comrades, afraid of not talking about them, people start being cleared, etc.

Lewwyn made good cases against me and Catwalk, but after that, his contribution stopped being of bringing forward new cases. It was mostly just commenting here and there. Both his cases against me and Catwalk lost steam due to our following play and it feels like he couldn't yet change the record from that. In my eyes, this can very well be due to difficulty of fabricating cases as scum. This is a bit of hipocrisy, because I'm having this kind of trouble in this game as well and there's a lot of other explanations, like lack of time. But, from what I can see of the rest of Lewwyn's play, my theory here fits.

Here's the post where I think Lewwyn wnt "meh, whatever" with his case against me. This was a bit after day 2 ended:

Ugh, I went back to the front to look at the roster and I'm thinking, "What? These guys are playing too?" There's still so many people in the game. I'm not going to go through everyone, but I'm going to go mention peeps that are sticking out to me.


-It seems novice is getting a lot of flack but I'm still leaning innocent on him.
-Injera has been, IMO, comeback villager of the game. Welcome back from the wolf den.
-Serdoa has seemed pretty clean to me. Not biting on that last minute vote on Sareln. Been there as a villager, and if I had been awake at the end of the day I might've done the same.
-Another rebounder in Jkaen personally feel that Jkaen has been a lot more clear minded this game. Certainly a departure from last game. I'm hoping its because he feels he did poorly last game and not because he suddenly has a cheat sheet.
-I mentioned earlier that I'm not getting a good enough read on Pindicator either way. As I stated earlier, I'm not willing to base it on whether I think one action is more scummy than another. I'm willing to wait, or at least in case I'm dead, willing to have the village give him a few more days to prove his innocence before making a final judgement
-Tasunke
-Molach is playing?
-Remember that big opening day post by Waterbat. I haven't seen a continuation of that really. Dunno yet if that's more or less suspicious. But I'm actually thinking it might be less suspicious because a villager would tire of the act... right?
-Do I buy Ichabod's latest defense? He certainly tires me out.
- Catwalk
-We have a pair of excellent lurkers in Selrahc and Arromir, either of whom could be scum, or both. They both remind me significantly of GES in WW3 who would regularly check in simply to say RL was being a pain before disappearing again. These two may have actual RL issues, but so did GES.
-Uber and TT are so at each others throats that I can't tell anything. They both... make a lot of noise.

Yeah I didn't go through everyone. My feet hurt. What is this Night 2?

It's not a smoking gun, but that little comment was the last one I remember Lewwyn saying about me. He neither clears me, nor accuses me. And he was really gunning for my neck on day 2. It felt strange after some time, when he didn't refer me anymore (at least that I can remember).

And the AH-HA moment that Gaspar referred to. I know it's unfair to expect something like that from someone in every game, but what I see of Lewwyn here is exactly the opposite. He seems to be more following that trying to find his usual revelations.

That's more or less what I think about Lewwyn.

I'm rereading Day 1 right now, trying to see how things developed to us getting two mafia on the block and if there is anything much I can find.

Right now, I see this:



This was following on from novice joining the suspicion of thestick and quoting a post from another game to back it up.

I see this as an action by Pindicator that someone as mafia wouldn't do. thestick only had three votes at the time, and while he had zak & novice on his case, he was by no means a unanimous candidate.

This kind of 'evidence gathering' I think is clear village mafia-hunting and would, for me, make Pindicator seem more villagery to me

More info as I read hopefully...

I found that exact same quote by Pindicator and found it a town post too. If I'm not mistaken, both Novice and Rowain looked for thestick posts too in other games, and they also soudned like villager posts.

---

I'm not used to play with tasunke, but the pressure definetely seems to be affecting him heavily and not quite in the good way. Those files (didn't read them either, sorry, tasunke) also seem to be some sort of plan. I really can't see a reason for doing that outside of using as a trumph card to save yourself from suspicions.

Pindicator feels like a good information lynch and a decent chance of hitting scum. Day 2 was very busy and I know there were two villagers in that day (me and Sareln), so outside of villager paranoia, a scum Pindicator would fit. There are some posts here and there from pindicator (like the one TT quoted) that make me think that he can't possibly be Mafia. But his general play has been pretty suspicious.

Don't really mind if we lynch one of those 3.

[novice]

Okay, getting caught up. novice, you voted Tasunke because of his weak case against me when I was a likely target (I don't really disagree) but what about Catwalk?

Catwalk is pretty firmly in my innocent camp based on the sum total of his game so far.

Tasunke just seemed to be deliberately disruptive on day 1 and compiling his Tasunke files is also very suspicious.

One specific thing Tasunke did that I didn't like was to vote Lewwyn for major before Lewwyn had even posted in the game thread.

[novice]

Pindicator made an opening post almost as scummy as Thestick's. Serdoa pounced on it, read his post with quotes to see the full context.

I'm too sick of it. Nearly as much as I am sick of badly made-up votes... speaking of that:



You know pindicator, I REALLY am sick of meta-discussions and I'd vote in a heartbeat for anyone trying to start a discussion on if the "role" of a player does mean something. But out of your 4 Bigger-quotes there is only 1 which could be attributed to that, the last one about Lewwyn. All the others? Obviously joking around. That leads me to what I wrote first: I hate made-up votes, and your vote on Bigger is just made-up in order to vote for him. You can't tell me that you didn't see yourself that his quotes and your "reason" for voting for him don't really match. Therefore

[color=red]pindicator

I agreed:

Agree with Serdoa on Pin - Pin, how could you take Bigger's posts like metagaming? More like you had decided to vote someone for that reason, and Bigger fit the bill.

Pindicator's reply, suddenly he was voting Bigger for a completely different reason. You don't come into the game annoyed about metagaming, and them vote someone because they're making joke votes. Those are two unrelated things. This reeks of scum justifying a vote.

everybody starts with joke votes, I get that. But 4 posts and every one of them is a joke? If he contributes better I have no problem changing my vote, but every post being a joke is not helpful. Yeah, so I messed up the terminology for it -- i'll grant that -- but it's still distraction



Really could say the same thing about your 2nd post as well


re: thestick - isn't 20 questions how he played it last game as a villager? i was pretty convinced he was scum last game, and wrong, which makes me want to see more from thestick before deciding towards him

re: tasunke - same thing, i want to see more. his day 1 reveals are so predictable now it looks like he even realizes he has to do it otherwise he'll look fishy. So I agree with novice, his reveal tells nothing. Although today's reveal seems to be the least amount of pressure he was under before revealing.

As you can see Pindicator even follows up with defending Thestick in the same post.

Nobody was gaining any real traction, except Thestick who had four pretty committed people voting for him. At that point Rowain makes a really bad post:

Yes please cut it in future


Interesting that you attack thestick for his very first post here (of course only after zak suspected him) and then use his 8th or so post in another game to support it.

But even more interesting to note Bigger's eagerness to jump on the waggon and his announcing to jump another waggon(injera) once it forms.

FTM staying on Jkaen

Throwing suspicion on the Thestick voters without commenting on the original case against Thestick. He also fished for an Uberfish wagon later, as TT points out.

[Ichabod]

At that point Rowain makes a really bad post:



Throwing suspicion on the Thestick voters without commenting on the original case against Thestick. He also fished for an Uberfish wagon later, as TT points out.

I made a note while I was rereading the thread that this post was villagery by Rowain, due to the search of the way thestick posted. But after reading it again here, it isn't a good post, no. I think I read it as normal antagonizing of you and Zakalwe, which is very usual for Rowain. Thinking over it, if there's one player that would lose his wolf cover to defend a seemingly already condemned wolf from attacks by novice and Zakalwe, I'd say it would be Rowain (no offense intended).

This post by Rowain is the one where he first present his suspicions against Bigger, which later led to his vote. This was one of the arguments used (including by me) to defend Rowain when he was getting heat (day 3, I think). Maybe it wasn't that much of a villager post.

Anyway, Rowain wouldn't be a bad lynch too. The sad part is that there's not a player that I'm focused as more likely wolf right now. Even the most suspicious players are in a kind of blurred frontier.

[Rowain]

You are quite right that this post looks awful now. But at that time I did

a) Not see the case on thestick

b) found novice suspicious .

c) was more convinced by Bigger looking scummy.