Nobody expects the Chinese Inquisition: Isabella of China

[Mardoc]

Does that change the calculus for anyone? I'd need to let him know shortly, though, so he doesn't run scientists for himself.

I need more details! Maybe you could send me the latest save?

The way I see it, if we're not going to go off of gut (in which case I trust yours more than mine) we need to know the following:

• Current commerce rate in the most likely Academy city (and max commerce rate here too)
  
• Value of most plausible bulb
  
• Value of trade mission
  
• Current gold/research GNP ratio
  
• # cities we can expect to get religion into
  
• Priority of religion spreading (how fast we'll get to that #)
  

That'd let us convert everything into either beakers or beakers/turn, and then you just have to decide what discount rate to apply.

I think the only obvious thing is that if we want a GPro, it'd be better to trade for it than to run priests. Scientists will pay more when they're working and we can get there sooner.

Here you see 2 settlers en route to settling floodplains bonanza land. It will take a while to get there, unfortunately, so I might fall behind on city count shortly.

Seems a fair trade, less but better land. And presumably it's safe to grab it. Just keep pushing hard! Um...not sure on the plausibility of this, but what are our chances of sniping mackoti's share of it? I'd be fine with letting Commodore settle up to the line if that means mackoti misses out on stuff.

Is it worth pushing for MoM to make sure mackoti doesn't get it?

He's still got that GEng in reserve, doesn't he? I'm inclined to say no, we'd rather take his land than his wonders.

[Gaspar]

I need more details! Maybe you could send me the latest save?

Absolutely. I'll send the next one over.

The way I see it, if we're not going to go off of gut (in which case I trust yours more than mine) we need to know the following:

• Current commerce rate in the most likely Academy city (and max commerce rate here too)
  
• Value of most plausible bulb
  
• Value of trade mission
  
• Current gold/research GNP ratio
  
• # cities we can expect to get religion into
  
• Priority of religion spreading (how fast we'll get to that #)
  

That'd let us convert everything into either beakers or beakers/turn, and then you just have to decide what discount rate to apply.

Yeah - lemme see if I can force myself to do that busy work. As you know from FFH7, I'm at my best when I have someone doing that for me. (Can MBTM be cloned?)

I think the only obvious thing is that if we want a GPro, it'd be better to trade for it than to run priests. Scientists will pay more when they're working and we can get there sooner.

Pretty much exactly my thoughts. The question really is how aggressively I'll spread the faith. Right now most cities have a happy cap of at least 7/8 without religion, so its not pressing there. No question, though, that the OR bonus all around would be quite useful.

Seems a fair trade, less but better land. And presumably it's safe to grab it. Just keep pushing hard! Um...not sure on the plausibility of this, but what are our chances of sniping mackoti's share of it? I'd be fine with letting Commodore settle up to the line if that means mackoti misses out on stuff.

Issue here is there's really little ability to snipe from mackoti. Unless I'm missing something he already has all the land between us. Plenty of opportunity to snipe from Commodore, however.

He's still got that GEng in reserve, doesn't he? I'm inclined to say no, we'd rather take his land than his wonders.

I'd be stunned if the GEng didn't go for GLib. MoM is more a denial thing - he's going to have his GAs first anyway, no reason to let them be double length. But I'd feel happier about that if there was marble to be had.

[Man Behind the Mask]

(Can MBTM be cloned?)

An excellent idea!

One of us can go to work and be devoted to his family, while the lucky one can spend his whole time on RB and playing games!

[Mardoc]

Yeah - lemme see if I can force myself to do that busy work. As you know from FFH7, I'm at my best when I have someone doing that for me. (Can MBTM be cloned?)

I'll do at least part of it, but the pieces depending on overall goals probably require you. I'll find these once I have the save:

• Current commerce rate in the most likely Academy city (and max commerce rate here too)
  
• Value of trade mission
  
• Current gold/research GNP ratio
  

And I'm willing to do the back end math, too, once we have the data to feed in.

Issue here is there's really little ability to snipe from mackoti. Unless I'm missing something he already has all the land between us. Plenty of opportunity to snipe from Commodore, however.

I was thinking more of grabbing his floodplain bonanza, in addition to ours .

[Gaspar]

Didn't get a chance to report today - I seem to be playing turns of late outside my window which generally leaves me time to play and not much else. I did forward the last save off to Mardoc, so if he has time, swell. If not, no big deal. Ultimately this game is my headache.

It appears I also forgot to take any pictures. Upshot at the moment is I had to save gold for one more turn, Calendar will be due in 2 after that. I believe we just played T70, so T72. I think I probably need to bite the bullet and grab MC after that - forges are too good to keep waiting and I have a pair of strong hammer cities that could really use them. After that, either I grab Aesthetics and grab Shwedagon Paya or push to Philosophy. Either way, I need access to Pacifism to really take advantage of the Caste turns. Leaning heavily towards Philosophy.

At the moment, I think I'm going to push Judaism rather than Confucianism as my primary religion. Its holy city is the stronger site and I seem to be doing better with natural spread with it.

Last but not least Commodore agreed to let me meet TT via Commodore's territory. I already have the potential for TR with him, but the contact will be nice for the potential known tech discounts. Whether or not I also conspire with him against Commodore and/or Mackoti is a question for another time. I think I'll be playing at a bad time for reporting tomorrow as well, but I'll try and make sure I can get a few pictures taken for post facto reporting if necessary.

Wouldn't want to disappoint my legions of adoring fans.

[Mardoc]

I did forward the last save off to Mardoc, so if he has time, swell. If not, no big deal. Ultimately this game is my headache.

Didn't manage last night, I might do better on time tonight. I'll be shocked if I see the PBEMX save, for instance

On the subject of MC - can I talk you into a big metal statue, if you're not interested in building a tall thing with a light on top?

[Mardoc]

• Current commerce rate in the most likely Academy city (and max commerce rate here too) Croqueta China 20 commerce now, could make it to 46 pre-Free Speech. Call it 10 -> 25 beakers/turn at 100% research
  
• Value of trade mission If Mermaid, this turn: 737 gold. If other city, 603
  
• Current gold/research GNP ratio 100 gold = 113 beakers
  

So, using numbers from this turn, a trade mission would net us 603 gold -> 681 beakers (once we finished spending). An Academy would net us 10 beakers/turn, to gradually improve as Croqueta China grows and its cottages grow too.

Interestingly, although Croqueta China has the best long term potential, both Wonton Frito and Carne Ahumada currently have better commerce, making an Academy there worth ~11 bpt. Only, well, divide this number by 2, we're currently break even research at about 50%, for ~5 bpt -> 13bpt

Philosophy, likely bulb target, is 801 beakers, at a minimum discounted by 1.2 for one prereq, or 667 beakers.

We've currently got 10 cities, but our best religion is spread to three; a shrine would be worth 3 gold/turn gradually growing to...maybe 20? Converted to beakers, that's 3.4 bpt -> 23 bpt. Shrine might also give us a couple-few free spreads, hard to put a value on.

So, to sum up? I think it's between a Shrine and a Trade Mission, as the best long term/short term option, respectively. So let's leave it in gold. Would you rather have 603 gold now, or 3 gpt, growing as fast as you spread the religion for org religion benefits (and an undetermined number of free spreads)? I think it depends mostly on how fast you're planning to build missionaries. If that's a low priority, then the trade mission is way better. High priority, and...probably still the trade mission. Even if every city we own magically got Judaism next turn, that's still a 60 turn payback period.

[Gaspar]

Thanks for the analysis, Mardoc. I agree its between a Shrine and a Merchant. I'm tempted to go for the shrine because I can do enough with Market/Bank/Wall St to make it worth it down the line, but there's no arguing a Merchant does more in the short term.

I sort of played the turn in a hurry because I know Commodore is semi-out of commission, so I can't quite give a world class report, but here's the details:

• The two settlers are ~4T from reaching floodplainsbonanzaland.
  
• I reached contact with TT in Commodore's territory. Commodore got a better share of Gold Valley than I did.
  
• I'm going to hold off another turn before swapping to Caste because I want to whip the library at max possible overflow into Moai in Wonton Frito. I have to 3-pop whip it unless I want to wait longer than I want to wait, though. Its okay, with lighthouse fish and crab it grows like a weed.
  
• I have a missionary queued to put Judaism in the capital, after which I'll swap state religions.
  
• Interestingly, TT and Commodore founded Buddhism and Hinduism respectively, but neither has adopted it. Why prioritize early religion if you're not going to use it? Just a waste of beakers.
  
• Settler for Rice/Incense completes in a turn. Going to order up another pair Double Banana site and Pigs site next turn.
  
• Debating whether its worth going Civil Service -> Metal Casting; Feudalism -> Civil Service -> Metal Casting; Metal Casting -> Civil Service. CS is only 4T at 100%, and at essentially 50% breakeven, a total of 8T to research. That will be faster in Caste because the scientists/merchants will accelerate things. As much as I'd like the double discount on CS, I can't help but think with an Academy in the capital, I'm better off getting to Bureaucracy as quickly as possible.
  

Here's some pictures:



The capital.



Aforementioned galley in transit.



Commodore/TT borderlands. TT did still settle Commodore aggressively.



Purple Dot - Incense/Rice and Maya Dot - Double Banana/Canal.



Yellow Circle - Pigs filler and Orange Circle - Floodplain/Lake/Furs/Copper



A couple notes - this is the first time mackoti and I were both on 100% science and he was ahead of me. That's the impact of Bureaucracy, since he has now founded his Academy.

My production is pretty low right now because I'm growth focused in my hybrid-cities, trying to use the improved happy-cap. Getting that Sugar up and passing Cows to CC will help both Production and GNP.

Food is still strong, though I'm off a whipping cycle at the moment.

That soldiers and rival worst GNP I believe are both Commodore. He's talked about tanking his economy and that's why. Whatever his logic, he lost the game for himself building all those Keshiks and not doing anything with them. If he was going to attack TT, he should have. But to research Archery and HBR, build Keshiks and then just let them cripple his economy - stupid? Why is that Keshik scouting my territory? He can't afford the Unit Supply right now. Hell, between my exploration and general Unit Cost my last place army is costing me 6 gpt. And I have IW and he doesn't, so my soldier counts are inflated. I like Commodore, but to me this is some serious IMO.

Anyway, there's a little state of the empire.

[Mardoc]

Thanks for the analysis, Mardoc. I agree its between a Shrine and a Merchant. I'm tempted to go for the shrine because I can do enough with Market/Bank/Wall St to make it worth it down the line, but there's no arguing a Merchant does more in the short term.

Well...this isn't going to be our last Great Person, is it? Perhaps a Merchant now, and a GPro later for the shrine after we've had time to spread the faith a bit? I don't think missing out on 30 turns of 3 gpt is really going to hurt us that badly, and I don't have the sense you're ready to invest in a heavy missionary push yet. Not until we've finished the land grab stage, anyway. Besides, if we do GPro via trade, then we've potentially got some time, waiting on Commodore's wonders.

On tech - I think it depends on if you're going to try for the Colossus or not. If you are, let's go MC first and get that underway; if not, then I think you're right, an earlier Bureau is worth losing a prereq discount. Surely mackoti can't get all the wonders, he's got to be running out of forests. And we do own a lot of coastline that could use a boost...

[Gaspar]

Played a turn entirely too hastily today, I'll get some pictures up from that in a bit. In the interim, sent this off to TT:

Hey TT,

Managed to finally make contact. Pretty sad to get the full set on T71 of a 4-player game.

Anyway, I'll cut to the chase. I think given our relative global positioning we are natural allies in this game. I think we also worked together pretty well in Diplo2, so I'm hoping we can build on that. I have some thoughts on how that can work and some information I'd like to share with you regarding the game, but I'd like to make sure you're of like mind.

In the interim, how do you feel about Open Borders for some trade routes? Also, I believe we each have a unique happiness resource that perhaps we could trade down the line. Mine is wines, though I've only hooked one copy up so far, what's yours?

Regards,
Gaspar