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If* there is an advantage to Manchin and Sinema it is that all the major legislation that does get passed is pretty bare bones and moderate. Nothing super "liberal scary".
I would be more optimistic if Trump candidates that are ok with overthrowing elections were losing spectacularly everywhere. That is not the case..... I won't breathe easy until that time.
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Didn't Newsom almost get recalled like a year ago ? I've started discounting him since then. If you want a governor apparently the Illinois governor is pretty popular because despite being a billionnaire himself he's passed some pretty good laws.
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(August 7th, 2022, 19:19)Cyneheard Wrote: Between Republican overreach and Dems actually getting stuff done despite a 50-50 Senate relying on Manchin and Sinema (D-Hedge Funds), I'm way more optimistic than I was even a few weeks ago.
And 538's Senate forecast concurs, it had slightly favored Republicans July 26th and now has a 0.59 probability Democrats retain control. Maybe election deniers don't do well outside of primaries  .
Darrell
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Their model for the house (79/21 in favor of the republicans) currently predicts that the republicans will win the popular vote by 4 points (because historically the president's party loses worse than what was predicted a few months before) but if the latest polls hold (the democrats currently lead by 0.1%) the democrats will keep the house as well as the senate.
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(August 8th, 2022, 02:45)AdrienIer Wrote: Didn't Newsom almost get recalled like a year ago ? I've started discounting him since then. If you want a governor apparently the Illinois governor is pretty popular because despite being a billionnaire himself he's passed some pretty good laws.
By "Almost" you mean "it failed by 30-some points"?
August 8th, 2022, 22:20
(This post was last modified: August 8th, 2022, 22:20 by Mjmd.)
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FBI raided Trump!
I'm going to recommend the BBC article for the FBI raid story https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-62472908 . I'll note key parts below:
I think there are a lot of layers to this. But lets take the bones first. Its not as spicy on the surface as some would hope.
Quote:The search was reportedly connected to an investigation into Mr Trump's handling of official papers.
In February, the National Archives, the US government agency that manages the preservation of presidential records, asked the justice department to investigate Mr Trump for his handling of official papers.
The National Archives said it had retrieved 15 boxes from Mar-a-Lago, some of which contained classified records.
US presidents are required by law to transfer all of their letters, work documents and emails to the National Archives.
"This is about the PRA [Presidential Records Act]," said the Trump source, who only agreed to speak on condition of anonymity.
"When have you ever heard about a raid because of PRA?" (I've bolded and underlined)
My reading is basically they did a raid for a crime they know he committed. Its a "safe" thing to do because they've already got proof he broke this law rumors about flushing documents down toilets not even having to be a factor.
The next layer of course is the bolded part. A) They've known about this broken law for a while now and done nothing. B) this isn't even in the top 10 reasons you would assume an FBI raid would have been done. BUT it does give the FBI a valid reason to raid looking for documents......
The next part of the article is a little contradictory depending on source listening to
Quote:The source added: "They [the FBI] just left and they left with very little."
Several boxes were taken away, the source said
Listen, Trump has been dodging getting caught for a long time. As much as can be hoped, I doubt there is anything too incriminating.
However, next layer is that it also may be a tactic to get more people to come forward looking for deals. I know there were stories that the Jan 6th committee was getting an influx after it started to look like they were making progress.
Obviously, the best case scenario is some smoking gun. I mean sure he has publicly stated a lot of his crimes, but maybe we just need a Watergate "here was this hidden thing" moment to get Republicans to run away from Trump as fast as possible. That is what I want most. We need Republicans to be afraid of even sounding like Trump when it comes to elections. The answer to "will you abide by the outcome of this election" should be "yes". People who spout "election was stolen by fraud" better have mountains of proof or be run out of town.
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Oh an obvious layer is that they actually must be serious about the whole rule of law thing. This is a unprecedented and dangerous thing to do. Necessary, but you had better already have a ton of evidence to this. Certainly more than just PRA stuff as well.
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The practical outcome is motivating the Republican base right before the midterms. Lovely.
Darrell
August 9th, 2022, 06:51
(This post was last modified: August 9th, 2022, 06:52 by Ginger().)
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(August 9th, 2022, 04:55)darrelljs Wrote: The practical outcome is motivating the Republican base right before the midterms. Lovely.
Darrell
This is the kind of reasoning that leads you to do nothing because "omg there might be backlash". You are not going to please Trump fans by trying the enforce the rule of law. In fact, unless you're a blithering mess (jfc look at that staff turnover) of a president with enough vulgarity to show that you're "one of them", you're probably never gonna please or hush them, period. You saw what happened with Mike Pence, for whom the coup attempt was a straw too far, and he is publicly repudiated as a result. The idea of appeasement is dangerous and inevitably normalizes Trump's actions.
Frankly I have no idea how that call to the GA sec of state seeking to create more votes wasn't the end of this circus
Finding a way to peace
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Bernie mentioned that the country needs to go towards a multi-party system. Wouldn't the next election be a great time for a third party to enter? Trump and Biden are both mighty unpopular. Bernie could run for the first presidency, then someone else carries his legacy once the party has been established. Would this be legal?
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