The Dark arts - C&D Master Thread

[mostly_harmless]

As I understand it, you assume 3 tiles overlap with the capital BFC for CivFrance's 2nd city?
Couldn't they also have settled on the coast instead as well? Also only gives 6 land points.
Or do you factor settler movement into it as well?

mh

[kjn]

I factor in settler movements too - they built their settler T26, and they don't have roads. They could've settled an equivalent of 3NE (2 overlap, 1 coast), however, but they seem to be going for BW right now (no tech researched for 9 turns, and top GNP is too low for CRE + double-discounted AH).

On T29 we'll have confirmation, when they get in their border pop in their second city.

[mostly_harmless]

Ok, cool.

[kjn]

That said, we should try to log into the game soon after we notice a new city on CivStats and get the demos, so we can track the land numbers, and get a hint if the new city is coastal or not. It won't work once we start bumping into another, but during the early REX phase it should be doable.

[kjn]

T28 - 2880 BC

Cliff's Notes: Apolyton researched Fishing, and CivPlayers grew to size 5.

Demos:

Apolyton gained 6 points in score, a tech. Since they researched AH 6t ago, this pretty much has to be Fishing, it's the only possible tech for them to have researched in that time, and it'd require quite a bit of overflow from AH and that they've picked up an extra 1C with a late citizen. As for why they've researched Fishing, I can see three possibilities:

1. A GLH run
   
2. Pottery next, fueled by working the lake
   
3. Their horses is close by a sea food resource
   

As for the GLH run, it will take forever without BW for mines, chops, and slaving. The Pottery option is possible, if they're the type of players who focus on prerequisite efficiencies instead of economic growth efficiency. The last option is the one that would be the best play.

CivPlayers gained 3. Rival average population rose, and there is another size 5 city on the top cities screen. Thus, their capital is now size 5.

Of note, by going from 12000 to 14000 in power we rose from #5 to #3 in the rankings. We only have the Spanish and Apolyton ahead of us. Of course, now we're going to stagnate in the demographics until T34...

[kjn]

So, who has the top production?

11 in production is hard to get, and there is still a team producing 9hpt, and another 6hpt. Two PH mines, PH city tile, and the deer is enough, though. That would require at least 15 worker-turns, but then you have to add in another 5 for the corn.

WPC and Univers haven't had their workers long enough. The Spanish are still pop 2. Apolyton doesn't have Mining, and haven't had AH long enough to improve two animal resources. The Germans haven't had Mining long enough. CivFr has awesome food tles to work with their two cities. CFC has gone very food-heavy, plunking down farms to reach +10F.

That leaves CivPlayers. Their configuration would be PH city centre, Corn, Deer, PH mine, PH forest, grass forest. They probably just finished the mine.

Apolyton would then still be at 9, and I think the 6 can be CivFr: 2 flatland city centres, the deer, and a grass hill mine.

[kjn]

T29 - 2840 BC

Cliff's Notes: WPC reached size 4 in their capital, and also gained a tech, probably Mining. Another team, probably WPC, the Spanish or CivPlayers, has finished a Barracks.

Demos:

Only one score increase, but it was a large one: WPC gained 8 points. 2 were from their capital reaching size 4, and 6 from a tech. The only techs that fit to a 7t research (they last researched AH on T22) for WPC are Mysticism and Mining, and then they must have used their lake extensively, for 13bpt.

Total rival power rose 6000. Of this, 1000 comes from WPC reaching size 4. That leaves 5000. 2000 is either WPC researching Mining or a Warrior, but that leaves 3000 to account for. At this stage, this can only be a Barracks.

So, who has built the barracks. Going by the estimated power values, it's not WPC, since they'd have at least 17000 in power then, and rival best is 16000. Likewise for the Spanish and Apolyton. We are #4 at 14000, so it's not the Germans or CFC.

That leaves CivFr, CivPlayers, and Univers. CivFr recently (T26) finished a settler, and I believe CivPlayers built a warrior recently too (T26). However, Univers has been static in population since T19, and must have been been building settlers and workers since then.

My guess is that it's CivPlayers that has engaged in a bit of build-swapping, but that might very well be wrong. That would also fit with them having the large production T28. Another option is the Spanish, who are AGG and can build a barracks with a single chop (they got BW on T25), but in that case they must have lost their warrior - they have 13000 in power from tech and pop alone.

Rival top production has gone back to 9, and rival average shrunk to 4. Food production is up a bit. Rival best GNP is also up a bit, and would fit WPC working their lake while researching a single-discounted tech.

[novice]

So a non-agg civ finished a 50 hammer barracks on turn 29? I'm not sure what to make of that.

[kjn]

Or it's the Spanish who chopped the Barracks. But why build a barracks before they even have their first settler? Or they went worker-warrior-worker, despite beelining BW? Could maybe make sense if they had plenty of forests, but they have only one, tops two.

[kjn]

Scary thought: it's the Spanish who has chopped a barracks, and the reason is that they have copper in their BFC, ie no reason for a fast settler.